gold closed wed 1/22/03 $360.10 on the comex waht do you think?

michael · January 22, 2003 10:09AM

are you hot or cold for gold? are you happy or mad about the rising price?

are you a buyer or a seller of gold?
where will it be by the beginning of feb?
waht will it be by the end of 2003?
is this just a flash in the pan>?

will this overall help the market? coin market i mean

are you buying gold now either as generic gold bullino or more rare coins because of this?

sincerely michael

greghansen · January 22, 2003 10:36AM

Havn't bought any more since mid-December. I don't know about beginning of Feb, but IMO the chances of gold trading above $400/oz. in 2003 are in excess of 50%. I see no reason to be a seller of Gold until/unless it appears there is some resolution to the Iraq situation. If that action drags on and on, the uncertainty of the ultimate outcome will keep gold in the headlines.

MrKelso · January 22, 2003 10:44AM

Gold is HOT and i am still HOT for it. Been buying the Dips for some months now, Coin and raw.
Could move over $400 in a month or 2 and i was reading that the war premium is only about $20 bucks.
All that Glitters is Gold.

greghansen · January 22, 2003 10:45AM

Nice collection Mr. Kelso. Is that your "Mr. T" starter kit?

MrKelso · January 22, 2003 11:03AM

Just some Shipwrecked Gold i found a photo of. Would be nice to have a Vault filled with some of those coins.

meos1 · January 22, 2003 11:04AM

I am buying modern gold commems when the pricing is right. I can usually pick them up at or just below the price of gold. Most times the entire sets in in the offering making it a real good deal for the collection edge too! Just love those commems.

Dan

tradedollarnut · January 22, 2003 11:20AM

I want that gold nugget in the middle right in a real bad way!

SageRad · January 22, 2003 11:33AM

I continue to nibble on gold bullion on the dips, buy common date circulation issue Liberty $20's when the price is right, and buy scarce Liberty $20 and $10 whenever I can. So far, the price of the latter does not seem to reflect the increase in gold price and demand.

bigbadchad777 · January 22, 2003 11:38AM

Buy all you can! Stocks can go to nothing but gold will be worth its weight in GOLD!

roadrunner · January 22, 2003 11:52AM

James Sinclair continues to call the market right week by week. He tells it like it is along with the other commentators on www.financialsense.com. Jim is predicting monetization of our currency (with a % of gold) in the future. Quite a bold statement.
He mentions another country that is going to do the same thing THIS year. Gold appears to be a better horse than stocks. This may very well be a several year or longer bull market for gold.

I purchased about 3 dozen Saints and $20 Libs in various grades/better dates/commons at FUN from 61 to 65. I don't know about buying on the dips because the dips have so far been tiny and the dealers are selling on "forecast" rather than current market. Whoever said about 2 months ago that Saints and $20 Libs don't go up anymore than the price of gold was full of it. The premiums that these have jumped is multiples of what the gold price has done. Gold is up $35 an ounce and 64 Saints have gone up
$150 a coin. Sure looks like a premium to me.

roadrunner

Coinmonger · January 22, 2003 12:03PM

Coinmonger = happy gold speculator

I have been methodically accumulating over the last year and a half - buying on the dips.

I haven't purchased any since mid-december - I've been waiting for a pullback.

I'm still waiting...

relayer · January 22, 2003 12:21PM

I think I reget Buying gold from GOLDLIRA

roadrunner · January 22, 2003 12:39PM

With all the reputable dealers out there, who the heck would buy from someone named "gold lira?" Then again, when I was 20 I was foolish enough to buy seated coins from Florida Estate Liquidators. Duuhh. I think they had a 4 week shipping policy.

Always get possession as you hand over the check/cash.

roadrunner

Elcontador · January 22, 2003 1:16PM

People are hyping gold because of the international situation. Once we go into Iraq, it will drop like a stone. Conspiracy theorists may claim that George Bush hasn't gone into Iraq yet so he could raise the price of gold so he could make more money (as they 'know' that he invested in gold).

This is much like the hype re the Brasilian currency during the last election. Speculators traded on fears of Lula Da Silva being a leftist would wreck the economy. The Real traded as low as 3.8 to the U.S. dollar. A month after Lula won the election, he is acting like a centrists re his cabinet appointments and the Real was trading at 3.3 to the $.

We'll see the same with gold. Gold also had a similar run up the last time before we went into Iraq, after which it became comatose once again.

gmarguli · January 22, 2003 1:37PM

Whoever said about 2 months ago that Saints and $20 Libs don't go up anymore than the price of gold was full of it. The premiums that these have jumped is multiples of what the gold price has done. Gold is up $35 an ounce and 64 Saints have gone up
$150 a coin. Sure looks like a premium to me.

And who says the price rise in Saints has any real relation to the price of gold. If proof $4 Stellas went up $5000 during this same time, would you point to the rising price of gold?

Geoman · January 22, 2003 1:46PM

tradedollarnut,

Here is the nugget I want. I toured this mine last year, took lots of pictures, but were not allowed to take samples out.

For those of you who are curious, this sample weighs approximately 82 pounds, and contains an estimated 298 ounces of gold. Now, at $360 an ounce, this is........ too high for me to figure out. The mine DOES sell samples, much smaller than that, around the $500 - $5000 range. So if you are interested, you can buy nuggets online from the Red Lake Mine.

crito · January 22, 2003 2:26PM

I like gold, and ALWAYS have some on-hand, but it's gotten WAY ahead of itself. This isn't 1929 (stock market crash) or 1979 (second OPEC oil crisis) and a serious pullback is inevitable. I don't see an economic turnaround until after 2004 elections, though, and who knows how high it can creep on doomsday hype by then, but the smart money isn't stockpiling IMHO. Does remind me a little of 1999, however. The Y2K doomsday predictions didn't pan out either. In fact, was dead money for almost two years, if you bought at those levels. $330 in late 1999, $360 in early 2003, not much to get excited about, really.

Rare date gold is another matter; when you look at mintages, they're ridiculously cheap. I'd bet that even if the price of gold were to collapse completely, making common dates cheap to collect (and, hopefully, the series more popular), rare dates would STILL go up in value! Whadda hobby

I love it

ara · January 22, 2003 2:31PM

I guess gold is not really a barbarous relic after all!

northcoin · January 22, 2003 2:39PM

Good question. Those of us who have been following gold for the past decade well remember how often we have been promised that its price would skyrocket only to once in awhile be teased with a ten or fifteen percent rise which never seemed to sustain itself for very long. Maybe now it is the real thing? I got an email from one of the goldbugs this week claiming that the Japanese bought fifty million dollars of collectible gold last year and they spent that much just again at this month's FUN show. Out of curiosity I asked a friend today who was at the FUN show if he saw lots of Japanese buying gold there. The answer was no. Maybe they have secret agents in disguise hoarding up our gold at the shows????

coynclecter · January 22, 2003 5:34PM

Gold produces no income and hence is not the investment for the money managers. Its only the threat of war that has many speculating. When the war starts they will begin to sell.

wallstreetman · January 22, 2003 6:54PM

Roadrunner, your just now figuring out most here know nothing about Gold? Sooner or later theyll be right, its just that their making fools of themselves in the meantime! I just had to laugh every time I heard someone say the $50 coins are a better investment than the $20s, all they have to do is get a book on coin values from early 80s and see what Libs and Saints were selling for compared to the POG.

MrKelso · January 22, 2003 7:28PM

James Sinclair continues to call the market right week by week. He tells it like it is

I like Sinclair. He does tell it like it is and a lot of folks are now taking a close look at how he comes to the conclusions that he has been making.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Learn to make money while you are sleeping!!!! Then let me know how you did it.

Steve27 · January 22, 2003 8:20PM

The increase in the price of gold and the down trend in the stock market are both indicators of a coming war in Iraq.

CharlieB · January 22, 2003 9:31PM

<< <i>I continue ........to buy common date circulation issue Liberty $20's when the price is right, and buy scarce Liberty $20 ..... So far, the price of the latter does not seem to reflect the increase in gold price and demand. >>

Exactly my thoughts. If you are like me and collect gold coins anyway
(we are not talking bullion here) I just picked up common and
scarcer dates recently while gold is where it is. Other members
inspired me with their threads on the subject. These are
long term acquisitions anyway. I am not looking to turn a profit
just picking up those harder dates I am missing. I know some
other members who pm me have been doing the same thing so I am
not alone in my thoughts. I stick to my guns, you never go wrong
buying rarer date gold.

TheNumish · January 22, 2003 11:03PM

One of the reasons $20's have outpaced gold in price increases is because of the strength of the euro. Companies like Heritage buy most of their $20's from Europe and when the currency their buying the coins in gets stronger the price they have to pay goes up.

As far as gold going up it looks to me like a trend has started. I think war or no war it's going to just keep going up for a while. $450 gold wouldn't suprise me. I have no facts to back this up but just a gut feeling.

cosmicdebris · January 23, 2003 6:31AM

BSqr · January 23, 2003 6:35AM

cosmicdebris, nice

I like those Britannias but they seem a little pricey for what you get. Am I missing something?

Lakesammman · January 23, 2003 10:01AM

If things really go to hell in a handbasket, you should stock up on things that will be the new "currency" - cigarettes and ammunition (this from a vet. of the Hungarian revolution). No one will have a need for gold.

Spellcheck edit

roadrunner · January 23, 2003 12:19PM

Wallstreetman, you are dead right on the fact that the knowledge level about gold here on the forum is very poor. You would think that with all us being in the tangibles markets (rare coins!), there would be a natural propensity to have a feel for gold. Then again, we both lived through the 70's and 80's gold/coin market so that gives us an edge over those who only know gold/coins since the 1990 market crash. Crito, gold tried to briefly break through the manipulation of the market in 1999 but the cartel and the FED as usual turned the tied. Every move to the upside was constantly thwarted. With the stock market booming in 1999 and the US Dollar beaming with strength it had no chance. Today, there is no factor left that supports anything BUT a rising gold price. And now that the heavy hedgers and shorts have to cover all their paper bets made over the last 12 years, the roof is caving in. JP Morgan and all the other banks that have supported this manipulation over the years no have bigger fronts to protect such as their stake in holding over $30 trillion dollars in paper derivatives.

I told Maurice Rosen to reup me for another subscription to his Rare Coin Advisory letter. We both agreed that his interview with James Sinclair back in the fall of 2002 was worth the price of multiple subscriptions. The information is out there to be found and it is easily understood. It's not hype or bs. These commentators are presenting facts about the current states of the financial markets.
With that information you can make your own decision as to what is coming next. To those who just dismiss this all as "gold bug"
bunk, that's unfortunate.

The current run in gold has little to do with the IRAQ war plans and everything to do with the falling of the US Dollar and partially due to the exodus from mutual funds. The stock market just closed below the 50 day moving average and this is very bearish. And the US Dollar also closed under 100...another very bearish signal. Expect stocks to tumble further to test the October lows again and for gold to benefit from both. Sinclair has gone out on a limb again to forecast the US's return to a gold cover clause for the US dollar. Nixon took us off a 5% standard in 1974 and paper has reigned supreme since then. The piper is now asking to be paid. It's not about Iraq.

roadrunner

ara · January 23, 2003 2:50PM

Bill, nice collection of gold you have there. I noticed 3 standing Britannias, is it 2 - Maklouf (1 87-89 and 1 90-97) and 1 Rank-Broadley (98 or up) QEII obverse?

cosmicdebris · January 23, 2003 7:17PM

BSqr I think they are worth it, you have to see them up close. Plus if you wait a few years you can get them for a great price.

Ara (1) 1987 (1) 1998 (1) 2002 on the Standing Britannias.

Higashiyama · January 23, 2003 8:41PM

Sorry, but barring social factors that are substantially unpredictable (war, terrorism, etc), there is no obvious reason to be bullish on gold.

Global productive capacity is growing faster than demand; the mid-term trend, at least, is deflationary.

The U.S. dollar's role as reserve currency is unchallenged. When speaking about US dollar depreciation, it has to depreciate relative to something. It is not likely to depreciate dramatically against the yen or the euro. (sure, it could easily depreciate 20 % against these currencies, but this would be essentially a non-event, except to the extent that it would weaken the economies of Japan and Western Europe) Given excess global capacity, the dollar will not depreciate relative to goods and services (ie, there will not be substantial dollar based inflation).

None of the gold bugs on this board have made a case supporting a long term upward trend in the gold price. I have given two reasons why I believe the trend, if anything, is in the opposite direction (global excess productive capacity, and the value to the global economy of the dollar as a reserve currency/lack of other opportunities).

To the gold bugs on the board -->>> why do you believe there should be material long-term upward pressure on the price of gold?
(for example, if you think central bankers have been conspiring to keep the price of gold stable or low, what market forces have they been countering in this effort)

CharlieB · January 23, 2003 11:02PM

<< <i>Sorry, but barring social factors that are substantially unpredictable (war, terrorism, etc), there is no obvious reason to be bullish on gold.
>>

No one can argue against your points because they are very good
ones. Maple Leafs, etc. are purchased either to make a profit or
serve as an insurance policy against those unpredictable events
you cite. I am one who still keeps my bullion for the latter reason.
I haven't bought gold bullion in years, only numismatic gold coins.
If you just want a hedge, I think common $20 gold coins do the job.
You get the best of both worlds with these coins. This is the kind
of gold I like as a hedge. I read all the Harry Brown books in
the 1970's preaching doom and gloom and the only person
who got rich was Harry Brown. But at least all that reading opened
my eyes to add numismatic gold to my collection. So again I keep
the gold as insurance, especially in today's uncertain atmosphere.
One major terrorist act could change it all in a heartbeat. If
that happens I want to have some gold.

mrfred · January 23, 2003 11:42PM

I agree with Charlie B. The main reason to have some gold is that it is a hedge against uncertainty. And here we are -- times are uncertain. And I feel hedged (is that a verb?)

ara · January 24, 2003 4:29AM

With today's precious metals close, the intrinsic value of all my silver, gold and platinum coins is higher than what I actually paid for them!

MrKelso · February 9, 2006 9:51AM

PreTurb · February 9, 2006 10:07AM

nice "blast from the past" post!

fc · February 9, 2006 10:17AM

i like roadrunner's post the best. it just made sense then and now.

SageRad · February 9, 2006 12:44PM

Boy, has my focus changed since Jan, 2003!

gold closed wed 1/22/03 $360.10 on the comex waht do you think?

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