@dcarr said:
Rare coins and bullion generally seem to at least maintain purchasing power over longer spans of time (they keep >up with inflation). Occasionally they increase more or less than the rate of inflation.
The historical evidence, including over rolling timing periods (which eliminates starting/ending bias), would seem to indicate otherwise.
Coins and/or PM's have benefitted from once-in-a-lifetime shocks that are not going to repeat themselves: a global gold standard....introduction of flexible exchange rates....double-digit inflation in the U.S.....a 20-fold rise in gold's price in under 10 years, and a 30-fold increase in silver in the same period.....2 coin bubbles that moved non-PM coins a ton each time in addition to numismatics and bullion.
Returns from coins, even trophy coins where the buyers are price-insensitive, rarely rise about mid-to-high single digits over long periods of time, which lags stocks and often bonds, too. The Bass Proof Double Eagle at about a 12% CAGR in price is one which stands out from my research as being competitive with stocks over the 50-year holding period. But even the 1933 Saint owned by an esteemed member here only returned about 7% CAGR for the previous owner.
That said, I realize many people here started buying coins in the 1950's and 1960's when they were DIRT CHEAP compared to their future value and made for good/great CAGR returns over the ensuing decades.
@privatecoin said:
Stocks are great. Just remember to invest in big names like Enron.
Actually, Enron was a legit company with super-valuable assets (EOG, the fracking Permian E&P, stands for "Enron Oil & Gas" -- a spinoff in the 1990's) that sold the crown jewels to concentrate on questionable business lines which then engaged in fraud. Had they kept the valuable divisions, they would have EASILY survived the fraud (though huge fines and jail time were still in order).
@privatecoin said:
Stocks are great. Just remember to invest in big names like Enron.
Lol. Broad- based index funds.
Or Theranos....
By the way, all kidding aside, my father bought Kodak at its absolute peak ($130ish) in the 1970s and held it all the way down to $1. He actually made money! Figuring dividends, splits, etc, he ended up with a 3-4% annual yield despite losing 99% of the principal.
I only mention it, but because I'm a big believer in individual stocks, but the dividend aspect. That compounding doesn't happen with PMs or rare coins.
@jfriedm56 said:
For those of us fortunate enough to now have financial security and have invested and done well in the stock >market(which absolutely drives me insane when it goes down), now converting to key date coins which brings me >serenity. I truly believe those high quality, rare keys will always increase over time.
As a money manager and investment analyst for 4 decades, I always tell/told my clients and firm's clients that if they wanted to invest in coins or thoroughbred racing or some weird business or whatever....make sure you can survive a complete writeoff of the amount "invested" in these speculative ventures.
If it would change your lifestyle if it went to zero.....don't do it.
The returns from fantastic trophy coins and collections pre-1970 are unlikely to be repeated going forward, unless silver goes up 5-fold in price from here and gold goes up 4-fold or something like that.
@ShaunBC5 said:
My guess is that through conversations and knowing each other, his FA has encouraged him to lean into what he’s an expert in and grow his own business.
I would imagine that there aren’t other clients he’s encouraging to buy coins. Doesn’t sound as cool that way, though.
@jfriedm56 said:
For those of us fortunate enough to now have financial security and have invested and done well in the stock market(which absolutely drives me insane when it goes down), now converting to key date coins which brings me serenity. I truly believe those high quality, rare keys will always increase over time.
The problems with investing in coins include:
1. Liquidity -- takes time to find a buyer and often includes commission of some type to help make the deal (dealer must offer less to resell but is assumed to have a buyer somewhere)
2. Safety -- not much fun to store in safe deposit box, and high value coins always make one a target of thieves
3. Growth, or rather lack thereof -- coin investing is not for the masses and, generally speaking, value will not grow on par with equities over time.
Coin collecting is a hobby, and every collector has a budget, whether observed or not.
Since 95% of my coin collection is pre-33 gold coinage, I consider my coins as part of my diversified portfolio.
Cash, stocks/investments, land/real estate, coins/gold and silver. That’s how I roll. Your results may vary.
I think there will be big changes going forward but the more things change the more they stay the same. Collectors will always favor variety, rarity, and quality. How we define these terms may evolve but collectors collect.
Almost any nice underappreciated coin might go up in value and almost any poor over appreciated coin might go down.
It depends on the unknowable like how history unfolds, flights of fancy, and the whims of interests. Time flies in bounds and leaps.
Have you met any young people who collect anything now? My children are nearing 40, and none of them has taken an interest in collecting since their teen years. Technology has taken over, and collecting is a thing of the past, I’m afraid. There are just too many other things going on in life now to pay attention to history or collectibles associated with it.
That being said, I have not noticed prices dropping yet on what would interest me enough to get back in and actively collect. That might change when the collections or hoards held by people 60 and up start coming to market, whether at auction or your local coin shop. Around the turn of the century the collectible holdings of the greatest generation came to market, offering a chance to find better pieces for both US and world coin collectors. I think we’ll soon see the same thing happening with the silent generation and baby-boomer hoards, but there will be few collectors left, depressing the market for anything but bullion.
@dcarr said:
Rare coins and bullion generally seem to at least maintain purchasing power over longer spans of time (they keep >up with inflation). Occasionally they increase more or less than the rate of inflation.
The historical evidence, including over rolling timing periods (which eliminates starting/ending bias), would seem to indicate otherwise.
Coins and/or PM's have benefitted from once-in-a-lifetime shocks that are not going to repeat themselves: a global gold standard....introduction of flexible exchange rates....double-digit inflation in the U.S.....a 20-fold rise in gold's price in under 10 years, and a 30-fold increase in silver in the same period.....2 coin bubbles that moved non-PM coins a ton each time in addition to numismatics and bullion.
Returns from coins, even trophy coins where the buyers are price-insensitive, rarely rise about mid-to-high single digits over long periods of time, which lags stocks and often bonds, too. The Bass Proof Double Eagle at about a 12% CAGR in price is one which stands out from my research as being competitive with stocks over the 50-year holding period. But even the 1933 Saint owned by an esteemed member here only returned about 7% CAGR for the previous owner.
That said, I realize many people here started buying coins in the 1950's and 1960's when they were DIRT CHEAP compared to their future value and made for good/great CAGR returns over the ensuing decades.
Here is a chart of silver price, adjusted for CPI inflation (in other words, the price of silver in present-value 2023 dollars).
Except for a couple abnormal spikes, the plot is fairly horizontal, which indicates that silver generally keeps up with inflation.
@joeykoins said:
Who knows about any coins? Modern or Older. But, if I were to guess any series.
I would have to say the "Westpoint Quarters".
Very special series!
The West Point Quarters......what? A perfect example of prices falling off a cliff since their inception.
Yes, maybe for now! The OP pointed out in the future. I'm seeing these FLYING UPWARDS.
Only my opinion.
"Jesus died for you and for me, Thank you,Jesus"!!!
--- If it should happen I die and leave this world and you want to remember me. Please only remember my opening Sig Line.
@DoubleEagle59 said:
Quick search on Google resulted in these pictures of some US coin clubs........
@DoubleEagle59 said:
Collector base is declining as proof of this is look at all the grey hair (or no hair) at any large coin event.
Coin clubs and shows aren’t representative of the population of coin collectors, though. I’d like to see a photo of the ones using Instagram, TikTok, Reddit, Whatnot, and other newer digital platforms to access the hobby.
At FUN last year, I was bidding on a Bass pattern and my primary competition were literal teenagers (I was in the room at the live auction). Maybe they just wanted to flip it, but I bet some of them have better collections than most.
Much as I started collecting with lower value items when I was younger, some of today’s younger and/or casual collectors will eventually graduate to more serious hobbyists, with greater disposable income as they advance through life.
And if that’s not enough to sustain the popular of collectors, then I look forward to buying incredible coins that I could have scarcely dreamed of owning even five years ago, at better and better prices.
Great conversation.
It would be nice to just break even for me as a Morgan collector if I sold some stuff in a year or two. Maybe 10% in 5 years but I really don't think it will surpass that for some time to come. I only collect PL and DMPL's. This does narrow down the scarcity to some degree.
Student of numismatics and collector of Morgan dollars
Successful BST transactions with: Namvet Justindan Mattniss RWW olah_in_MA
One can only hope if/when the coin values rise,there is interested collectors who can afford/desire to buy them. Kind of like if a tree falls in the forest, does it make a noise if no one is there to hear it.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
@dcarr said:
Except for a couple abnormal spikes, the plot is fairly horizontal, which indicates that silver generally keeps up with >inflation.
But PMs pay no interest or dividends, which means during the lean years you get no income to tide you over. It also retards future returns.
Included in that chart are NUMEROUS years where silver returned nothing and lost purchasing power. Conversely, the bond market has never had 2 negative years in a row.
@dcarr said:
Rare coins and bullion generally seem to at least maintain purchasing power over longer spans of time (they keep >up with inflation). Occasionally they increase more or less than the rate of inflation.
The historical evidence, including over rolling timing periods (which eliminates starting/ending bias), would seem to indicate otherwise.
Coins and/or PM's have benefitted from once-in-a-lifetime shocks that are not going to repeat themselves: a global gold standard....introduction of flexible exchange rates....double-digit inflation in the U.S.....a 20-fold rise in gold's price in under 10 years, and a 30-fold increase in silver in the same period.....2 coin bubbles that moved non-PM coins a ton each time in addition to numismatics and bullion.
Returns from coins, even trophy coins where the buyers are price-insensitive, rarely rise about mid-to-high single digits over long periods of time, which lags stocks and often bonds, too. The Bass Proof Double Eagle at about a 12% CAGR in price is one which stands out from my research as being competitive with stocks over the 50-year holding period. But even the 1933 Saint owned by an esteemed member here only returned about 7% CAGR for the previous owner.
That said, I realize many people here started buying coins in the 1950's and 1960's when they were DIRT CHEAP compared to their future value and made for good/great CAGR returns over the ensuing decades.
Here is a chart of silver price, adjusted for CPI inflation (in other words, the price of silver in present-value 2023 dollars).
Except for a couple abnormal spikes, the plot is fairly horizontal, which indicates that silver generally keeps up with inflation.
Lots of ways to interpret that graph:
From 1900 to 1950, the real value of silver was dropping.
From 1960 to 2000, the real value of silver was dropping.
Based on the historical trend line, the price of silver is currently in a bubble.
Or not...
What you do see is essentially zero real growth in assets which is why it is not an "investment" even if it MIGHT be an inflation hedge or the occasional speculative bubble. There are several 40+ year time frames where it wasn't even hedging inflation.
@dcarr said:
Rare coins and bullion generally seem to at least maintain purchasing power over longer spans of time (they keep >up with inflation). Occasionally they increase more or less than the rate of inflation.
The historical evidence, including over rolling timing periods (which eliminates starting/ending bias), would seem to indicate otherwise.
Coins and/or PM's have benefitted from once-in-a-lifetime shocks that are not going to repeat themselves: a global gold standard....introduction of flexible exchange rates....double-digit inflation in the U.S.....a 20-fold rise in gold's price in under 10 years, and a 30-fold increase in silver in the same period.....2 coin bubbles that moved non-PM coins a ton each time in addition to numismatics and bullion.
Returns from coins, even trophy coins where the buyers are price-insensitive, rarely rise about mid-to-high single digits over long periods of time, which lags stocks and often bonds, too. The Bass Proof Double Eagle at about a 12% CAGR in price is one which stands out from my research as being competitive with stocks over the 50-year holding period. But even the 1933 Saint owned by an esteemed member here only returned about 7% CAGR for the previous owner.
That said, I realize many people here started buying coins in the 1950's and 1960's when they were DIRT CHEAP compared to their future value and made for good/great CAGR returns over the ensuing decades.
Here is a chart of silver price, adjusted for CPI inflation (in other words, the price of silver in present-value 2023 dollars).
Except for a couple abnormal spikes, the plot is fairly horizontal, which indicates that silver generally keeps up with inflation.
Lots of ways to interpret that graph:
From 1900 to 1950, the real value of silver was dropping.
From 1960 to 2000, the real value of silver was dropping.
Based on the historical trend line, the price of silver is currently in a bubble.
Or not...
What you do see is essentially zero real growth in assets which is why it is not an "investment" even if it MIGHT be an inflation hedge or the occasional speculative bubble. There are several 40+ year time frames where it wasn't even hedging inflation.
.
But if it continues to follow this path, which I suspect it might, then it could turn out pretty well for silver owners:
Yes I think a good chunk of classic coin values will appreciate, but mostly high demand representing historical and aesthetic significance.
I am worried about the modern US Mint material. There is too much, and most of it will get lost in the shuffle, demand will wane and along with it, value.
So just to state my point about “better” coins holding and appreciating in value, an example I’d like to use from personal experience is this coin. I purchased this 1891-CC $5.00 gold coin at auction in 1989 and had it certified shortly after. What percent has this appreciated at? Surely it is no longer a $200.coin. One has to be smart about the current and future markets and buy (IMO), coins with low pops. that fall into those categories. Here’s what I’m talking about:
@dcarr said:
Rare coins and bullion generally seem to at least maintain purchasing power over longer spans of time (they keep >up with inflation). Occasionally they increase more or less than the rate of inflation.
The historical evidence, including over rolling timing periods (which eliminates starting/ending bias), would seem to indicate otherwise.
Coins and/or PM's have benefitted from once-in-a-lifetime shocks that are not going to repeat themselves: a global gold standard....introduction of flexible exchange rates....double-digit inflation in the U.S.....a 20-fold rise in gold's price in under 10 years, and a 30-fold increase in silver in the same period.....2 coin bubbles that moved non-PM coins a ton each time in addition to numismatics and bullion.
Returns from coins, even trophy coins where the buyers are price-insensitive, rarely rise about mid-to-high single digits over long periods of time, which lags stocks and often bonds, too. The Bass Proof Double Eagle at about a 12% CAGR in price is one which stands out from my research as being competitive with stocks over the 50-year holding period. But even the 1933 Saint owned by an esteemed member here only returned about 7% CAGR for the previous owner.
That said, I realize many people here started buying coins in the 1950's and 1960's when they were DIRT CHEAP compared to their future value and made for good/great CAGR returns over the ensuing decades.
Here is a chart of silver price, adjusted for CPI inflation (in other words, the price of silver in present-value 2023 dollars).
Except for a couple abnormal spikes, the plot is fairly horizontal, which indicates that silver generally keeps up with inflation.
Lots of ways to interpret that graph:
From 1900 to 1950, the real value of silver was dropping.
From 1960 to 2000, the real value of silver was dropping.
Based on the historical trend line, the price of silver is currently in a bubble.
Or not...
What you do see is essentially zero real growth in assets which is why it is not an "investment" even if it MIGHT be an inflation hedge or the occasional speculative bubble. There are several 40+ year time frames where it wasn't even hedging inflation.
.
But if it continues to follow this path, which I suspect it might, then it could turn out pretty well for silver owners:
Sure...or it could revert to the long term mean, in which case it will turn out badly for anyone buying silver in the last 5 or 10 years.
@jfriedm56 said:
So just to state my point about “better” coins holding and appreciating in value, an example I’d like to use from personal experience is this coin. I purchased this 1891-CC $5.00 gold coin at auction in 1989 and had it certified shortly after. What percent has this appreciated at? Surely it is no longer a $200.coin. One has to be smart about the current and future markets and buy (IMO), coins with low pops. that fall into those categories. Here’s what I’m talking about:
And since the comparison should always be made, $202 invested in an S&P 500 fund (dividends reinvested) would be worth $6074 today. Greysheet puts an AU58 at $2500.
$202 in 1989 is equivalent to $500, inflation adjusted, today.
So, you beat inflation but lost to the stock market with a premium coin.
I remain, if anyone doesn't already know, firmly in the "great hobby, lousy investment" camp.
@jfriedm56 said:
So just to state my point about “better” coins holding and appreciating in value, an example I’d like to use from personal experience is this coin. I purchased this 1891-CC $5.00 gold coin at auction in 1989 and had it certified shortly after. What percent has this appreciated at? Surely it is no longer a $200.coin. One has to be smart about the current and future markets and buy (IMO), coins with low pops. that fall into those categories. Here’s what I’m talking about:
And since the comparison should always be made, $202 invested in an S&P 500 fund (dividends reinvested) would be worth $6074 today. Greysheet puts an AU58 at $2500.
$202 in 1989 is equivalent to $500, inflation adjusted, today.
So, you beat inflation but lost to the stock market with a premium coin.
I remain, if anyone doesn't already know, firmly in the "great hobby, lousy investment" camp.
Agreed! But I’ve had the joy of ownership for 35 years and to me that trumps any money above and beyond- coulda, woulda, shoulda!
If all of the money I spent on candy, liquor, travel, entertainment, and charity would have been invested in the S&P with dividends reinvested I'd have a lot more money, but then what kind of quality of life had I enjoyed?
I like to live in the "in-between" of these two ideas: Spend like I'll die tomorrow, and invest like I'll live forever. It's fun to navigate life in the in-betweens.
To answer the OP's question: Yeah I may be an anybody and I think that the coins I'm buying today may rise in value just like the memories of all the things I've spent my discretionary money on in the past have risen.
A penny saved is a penny earned. I deserve to enjoy the fruits of my labor, and by gosh I'm doing just that.
@jfriedm56 said:
So just to state my point about “better” coins holding and appreciating in value, an example I’d like to use from personal experience is this coin. I purchased this 1891-CC $5.00 gold coin at auction in 1989 and had it certified shortly after. What percent has this appreciated at? Surely it is no longer a $200.coin. One has to be smart about the current and future markets and buy (IMO), coins with low pops. that fall into those categories. Here’s what I’m talking about:
And since the comparison should always be made, $202 invested in an S&P 500 fund (dividends reinvested) would be worth $6074 today. Greysheet puts an AU58 at $2500.
$202 in 1989 is equivalent to $500, inflation adjusted, today.
So, you beat inflation but lost to the stock market with a premium coin.
I remain, if anyone doesn't already know, firmly in the "great hobby, lousy investment" camp.
Agreed! But I’ve had the joy of ownership for 35 years and to me that trumps any money above and beyond- coulda, woulda, shoulda!
And that's what it should be about!! I think worrying about value just ruins it.
Inflation will see to it that, over time, the price of old coins will continue to rise, generally. The more popular ones likely will outpace the rest.
That said, I doubt that coins generally, and even special coins (e.g., 1955 DDO) will keep pace with inflation over time.
To me, the fact that, if I'm careful with the buying, the expensive coins will be worth a substantial portion of what I paid, helps justify the large amounts (to me) that I spend on coins. I feel that I could liquidate and get a good majority (at least) of my money back, were it necessary, and I've had a lot of fun in the meantime.
Comments
The historical evidence, including over rolling timing periods (which eliminates starting/ending bias), would seem to indicate otherwise.
Coins and/or PM's have benefitted from once-in-a-lifetime shocks that are not going to repeat themselves: a global gold standard....introduction of flexible exchange rates....double-digit inflation in the U.S.....a 20-fold rise in gold's price in under 10 years, and a 30-fold increase in silver in the same period.....2 coin bubbles that moved non-PM coins a ton each time in addition to numismatics and bullion.
Returns from coins, even trophy coins where the buyers are price-insensitive, rarely rise about mid-to-high single digits over long periods of time, which lags stocks and often bonds, too. The Bass Proof Double Eagle at about a 12% CAGR in price is one which stands out from my research as being competitive with stocks over the 50-year holding period. But even the 1933 Saint owned by an esteemed member here only returned about 7% CAGR for the previous owner.
That said, I realize many people here started buying coins in the 1950's and 1960's when they were DIRT CHEAP compared to their future value and made for good/great CAGR returns over the ensuing decades.
Actually, Enron was a legit company with super-valuable assets (EOG, the fracking Permian E&P, stands for "Enron Oil & Gas" -- a spinoff in the 1990's) that sold the crown jewels to concentrate on questionable business lines which then engaged in fraud. Had they kept the valuable divisions, they would have EASILY survived the fraud (though huge fines and jail time were still in order).
By the way, all kidding aside, my father bought Kodak at its absolute peak ($130ish) in the 1970s and held it all the way down to $1. He actually made money! Figuring dividends, splits, etc, he ended up with a 3-4% annual yield despite losing 99% of the principal.
I only mention it, but because I'm a big believer in individual stocks, but the dividend aspect. That compounding doesn't happen with PMs or rare coins.
As a money manager and investment analyst for 4 decades, I always tell/told my clients and firm's clients that if they wanted to invest in coins or thoroughbred racing or some weird business or whatever....make sure you can survive a complete writeoff of the amount "invested" in these speculative ventures.
If it would change your lifestyle if it went to zero.....don't do it.
The returns from fantastic trophy coins and collections pre-1970 are unlikely to be repeated going forward, unless silver goes up 5-fold in price from here and gold goes up 4-fold or something like that.
Private equity for accredited investors only. Not public.
This
The problems with investing in coins include:
1. Liquidity -- takes time to find a buyer and often includes commission of some type to help make the deal (dealer must offer less to resell but is assumed to have a buyer somewhere)
2. Safety -- not much fun to store in safe deposit box, and high value coins always make one a target of thieves
3. Growth, or rather lack thereof -- coin investing is not for the masses and, generally speaking, value will not grow on par with equities over time.
Coin collecting is a hobby, and every collector has a budget, whether observed or not.
Since 95% of my coin collection is pre-33 gold coinage, I consider my coins as part of my diversified portfolio.
Cash, stocks/investments, land/real estate, coins/gold and silver. That’s how I roll. Your results may vary.
MY GOLD TYPE SET https://pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/complete-type-sets/gold-type-set-12-piece-circulation-strikes-1839-1933/publishedset/321940
Will find out in 25 or 30 years 🥳
I think there will be big changes going forward but the more things change the more they stay the same. Collectors will always favor variety, rarity, and quality. How we define these terms may evolve but collectors collect.
Almost any nice underappreciated coin might go up in value and almost any poor over appreciated coin might go down.
It depends on the unknowable like how history unfolds, flights of fancy, and the whims of interests. Time flies in bounds and leaps.
Have you met any young people who collect anything now? My children are nearing 40, and none of them has taken an interest in collecting since their teen years. Technology has taken over, and collecting is a thing of the past, I’m afraid. There are just too many other things going on in life now to pay attention to history or collectibles associated with it.
That being said, I have not noticed prices dropping yet on what would interest me enough to get back in and actively collect. That might change when the collections or hoards held by people 60 and up start coming to market, whether at auction or your local coin shop. Around the turn of the century the collectible holdings of the greatest generation came to market, offering a chance to find better pieces for both US and world coin collectors. I think we’ll soon see the same thing happening with the silent generation and baby-boomer hoards, but there will be few collectors left, depressing the market for anything but bullion.
That’s 2¢ worth (copper plated zinc).
I agree
Here is a chart of silver price, adjusted for CPI inflation (in other words, the price of silver in present-value 2023 dollars).
Except for a couple abnormal spikes, the plot is fairly horizontal, which indicates that silver generally keeps up with inflation.
Yes, maybe for now! The OP pointed out in the future. I'm seeing these FLYING UPWARDS.
Only my opinion.
"Jesus died for you and for me, Thank you,Jesus"!!!
--- If it should happen I die and leave this world and you want to remember me. Please only remember my opening Sig Line.Coin clubs and shows aren’t representative of the population of coin collectors, though. I’d like to see a photo of the ones using Instagram, TikTok, Reddit, Whatnot, and other newer digital platforms to access the hobby.
At FUN last year, I was bidding on a Bass pattern and my primary competition were literal teenagers (I was in the room at the live auction). Maybe they just wanted to flip it, but I bet some of them have better collections than most.
Much as I started collecting with lower value items when I was younger, some of today’s younger and/or casual collectors will eventually graduate to more serious hobbyists, with greater disposable income as they advance through life.
And if that’s not enough to sustain the popular of collectors, then I look forward to buying incredible coins that I could have scarcely dreamed of owning even five years ago, at better and better prices.
Nothing is as expensive as free money.
Great conversation.
It would be nice to just break even for me as a Morgan collector if I sold some stuff in a year or two. Maybe 10% in 5 years but I really don't think it will surpass that for some time to come. I only collect PL and DMPL's. This does narrow down the scarcity to some degree.
Student of numismatics and collector of Morgan dollars
Successful BST transactions with: Namvet Justindan Mattniss RWW olah_in_MA
Once again, only my opinion.
Sleepers ???
2019p & 2020p, DDO Quarters!
"Jesus died for you and for me, Thank you,Jesus"!!!
--- If it should happen I die and leave this world and you want to remember me. Please only remember my opening Sig Line.Diversification, in stocks AND coins
Mike
My Indians
Danco Set
One can only hope if/when the coin values rise,there is interested collectors who can afford/desire to buy them. Kind of like if a tree falls in the forest, does it make a noise if no one is there to hear it.
But PMs pay no interest or dividends, which means during the lean years you get no income to tide you over. It also retards future returns.
Included in that chart are NUMEROUS years where silver returned nothing and lost purchasing power. Conversely, the bond market has never had 2 negative years in a row.
Lots of ways to interpret that graph:
Or not...
What you do see is essentially zero real growth in assets which is why it is not an "investment" even if it MIGHT be an inflation hedge or the occasional speculative bubble. There are several 40+ year time frames where it wasn't even hedging inflation.
.
But if it continues to follow this path, which I suspect it might, then it could turn out pretty well for silver owners:
Yes I think a good chunk of classic coin values will appreciate, but mostly high demand representing historical and aesthetic significance.
I am worried about the modern US Mint material. There is too much, and most of it will get lost in the shuffle, demand will wane and along with it, value.
So just to state my point about “better” coins holding and appreciating in value, an example I’d like to use from personal experience is this coin. I purchased this 1891-CC $5.00 gold coin at auction in 1989 and had it certified shortly after. What percent has this appreciated at? Surely it is no longer a $200.coin. One has to be smart about the current and future markets and buy (IMO), coins with low pops. that fall into those categories. Here’s what I’m talking about:
Sure...or it could revert to the long term mean, in which case it will turn out badly for anyone buying silver in the last 5 or 10 years.
My crystal ball is broken.
And since the comparison should always be made, $202 invested in an S&P 500 fund (dividends reinvested) would be worth $6074 today. Greysheet puts an AU58 at $2500.
$202 in 1989 is equivalent to $500, inflation adjusted, today.
So, you beat inflation but lost to the stock market with a premium coin.
I remain, if anyone doesn't already know, firmly in the "great hobby, lousy investment" camp.
Agreed! But I’ve had the joy of ownership for 35 years and to me that trumps any money above and beyond- coulda, woulda, shoulda!
If all of the money I spent on candy, liquor, travel, entertainment, and charity would have been invested in the S&P with dividends reinvested I'd have a lot more money, but then what kind of quality of life had I enjoyed?
I like to live in the "in-between" of these two ideas: Spend like I'll die tomorrow, and invest like I'll live forever. It's fun to navigate life in the in-betweens.
To answer the OP's question: Yeah I may be an anybody and I think that the coins I'm buying today may rise in value just like the memories of all the things I've spent my discretionary money on in the past have risen.
A penny saved is a penny earned. I deserve to enjoy the fruits of my labor, and by gosh I'm doing just that.
And that's what it should be about!! I think worrying about value just ruins it.
Congratulations on a a fun 35 years!!!
Inflation will see to it that, over time, the price of old coins will continue to rise, generally. The more popular ones likely will outpace the rest.
That said, I doubt that coins generally, and even special coins (e.g., 1955 DDO) will keep pace with inflation over time.
To me, the fact that, if I'm careful with the buying, the expensive coins will be worth a substantial portion of what I paid, helps justify the large amounts (to me) that I spend on coins. I feel that I could liquidate and get a good majority (at least) of my money back, were it necessary, and I've had a lot of fun in the meantime.
Just sharing.
PCGS has data to add fuel to this discussion.
https://pcgs.com/prices/coin-index/pcgs3000
Index composition for pcgs3000 is shared (look for middle page link)
Other indexes on bottom right (I assume the pcgs3000 index is cherry picked to form the other indices).