It will likely be an AI self grading holder both coins & currency and worldwide. With pricing / auction realized app like coin facts. Holder / sticker game extinct.
As far as grading system unknown - could be 100 pt developed by international experts. Hopefully good coin preservation advances but any coins going bad in holder immediately devalued.
“Yes sir I understand you don’t think all 94 grade USA 1969-S 50c are the same value but the International commission and our experts on the program see your comment as a subjective fools errand. So that piece $100 our buy price / $125 sell via our online financial system. Not a buyer? Well goodbye and good-day then.
I think it will happen much sooner than most of us think. AI is already capable of preparing documents and using samples of voices and photos/videos to create new documents and videos that are frighteningly realistic, and the technology is constantly being improved. It's not hard to imagine it being used to grade coins using a series of scans. Initially it would have to rely on human input, but it would be able to interpolate that data and use it consistently on all series of coins. Try to imagine a 100 or 1,000 point grading scale, and no stickers!
I mean, for the computer. Maybe not. I’m not sure how they would teach a computer to grade. It seems like a computer would need very specific instructions.
@JoeLewis said:
Wouldn’t the definition for each grade need to be written way more specifically than they currently are?
Machine learning. They can look at human graded examples and learn what the grades are and how to grade based on past human decisions. It’s the same thing human graders do when they have a grading set to learn from. Unlike humans, an AI can look at thousands of exemplars simultaneously and kick out outliers and errors.
Grading turnaround time would be fast. No more anticipation or human experience. In fact, you can purchase our AI Grading program today and grade your own coins at home. AIGS is also perfectly accurate, no need to try for an upgrade...no further grading required.
@Onastone said:
Grading turnaround time would be fast. No more anticipation or human experience. In fact, you can purchase our AI Grading program today and grade your own coins at home. AIGS is also perfectly accurate, no need to try for an upgrade...no further grading required.
Because the machine would be constantly learning, and because the technology reading the coins would be regularly updated and improved, grades would be fluid, and grades would be time stamped. So for expensive coins with old time stamps, buyers might demand an updated grade, with or without a physical review of the coin.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
@Onastone said:
Grading turnaround time would be fast. No more anticipation or human experience. In fact, you can purchase our AI Grading program today and grade your own coins at home. AIGS is also perfectly accurate, no need to try for an upgrade...no further grading required.
Because the machine would be constantly learning, and because the technology reading the coins would be regularly updated and improved, grades would be fluid, and grades would be time stamped. So for expensive coins with old time stamps, buyers might demand an updated grade, with or without a physical review of the coin.
Every change to grading "systems" degrades the prior ones.
This search for the "perfect" grading of coins is not a good endeavor.
@Onastone said:
Grading turnaround time would be fast. No more anticipation or human experience. In fact, you can purchase our AI Grading program today and grade your own coins at home. AIGS is also perfectly accurate, no need to try for an upgrade...no further grading required.
Because the machine would be constantly learning, and because the technology reading the coins would be regularly updated and improved, grades would be fluid, and grades would be time stamped. So for expensive coins with old time stamps, buyers might demand an updated grade, with or without a physical review of the coin.
Every change to grading "systems" degrades the prior ones.
This search for the "perfect" grading of coins is not a good endeavor.
There's such a thing as overcomplication.
I think it’s unreasonable to expect an intelligent grader - artificial or human - to stop learning on its first day at work. And it can’t be a good idea to choose inferior grading skills over superior ones. The trick for those of us using the service is to not obsess over grading methods and the grades, and focus more on the coins.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
AI won’t be grading coins. However I can easily see a time when image classification combined with some very clever coding will allow a grade to be assigned that is reasonable.
That could happen today if the market was such that it would pay enough to go through the effort. It would also need an enormous training data set so the cost of that would need to be factored in.
AI has become quite the buzzword lately becoming an umbrella term for image classification, NLP, and other unrelated technologies and techniques. As some in the industry have said, they wish people would never have coined the term artificial intelligence because it gives the wrong impression of what’s happening and makes people think too much that it is magic.
Where AI or similar "expert systems" will eventually prove of practical help is in speed. Everybody complains about the backlog at the TPGs, and that backlog is caused almost entirely by the inability of a human grader to come up with an objective, repeatable grade opinion without looking at a coin for at least several seconds. If a well-built, well-programmed AI grading system can deliver comparable results to the humans in a fraction of the time (slashing the wait times from "several weeks" to "within a day"), it will be adopted and used.
Given adequate resources, the AI would also be very good at variety attribution and counterfeit detection, as well as detecting people trying the crackout game by recognizing the same coin it had seen earlier.
The only thing holding back the AI at the moment is the only thing holding back old-fashioned computer grading: consistency. Current-generation AI models have proven to be notoriously unreliable in terms of delivering consistent fact-based results to real-world problems; when faced with real-world ambiguity, the AI tends to just "make up stuff" rather than "try harder to find the truth".
Waste no more time arguing what a good man should be. Be one. Roman emperor Marcus Aurelius, "Meditations"
@Onastone said:
Grading turnaround time would be fast. No more anticipation or human experience. In fact, you can purchase our AI Grading program today and grade your own coins at home. AIGS is also perfectly accurate, no need to try for an upgrade...no further grading required.
Because the machine would be constantly learning, and because the technology reading the coins would be regularly updated and improved, grades would be fluid, and grades would be time stamped. So for expensive coins with old time stamps, buyers might demand an updated grade, with or without a physical review of the coin.
What is there for the machine to learn? Either the coin meets the standard or it doesn't.
First of all the term AI is very misused and most commonly just refers to an adaptive algorithm capable of interpreting a wide range of data including images and sound.
"AI" probably won't be grading "old" coins. As is the real challenge with self driving cars, the last few feet of the drive are near impossible to program. In self-driving, that would be knowing to find and select the right/best parking space, or knowing where the valet stand is, or where to pull up in front of a building to pick someone up, how to handle manual driving instructions (ie, at a construction zone or cop at an intersection where power is out).
A grading algorithm can probably be used for modern coins to hand out or discern between 69's and 70's. If anything, it will probably be brought in to "pre-grade" some coins but still have a team of finalizers.
That said, someone could always start an auto-grading & slabbing service which only uses a machine to grade. Likely those coins wouldn't have much credibility in the market place as collectors would always second guess the grades.
Given adequate resources, the AI would also be very good at variety attribution and counterfeit detection, as well as detecting people trying the crackout game by recognizing the same coin it had seen earlier.
AI wouldn’t need to find an earlier “grading event” to stop the crackout game. It would do it by being consistent. Although matching the coin to earlier grading events would be useful in identifying doctored and counterfeit coins.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
@Onastone said:
Grading turnaround time would be fast. No more anticipation or human experience. In fact, you can purchase our AI Grading program today and grade your own coins at home. AIGS is also perfectly accurate, no need to try for an upgrade...no further grading required.
Because the machine would be constantly learning, and because the technology reading the coins would be regularly updated and improved, grades would be fluid, and grades would be time stamped. So for expensive coins with old time stamps, buyers might demand an updated grade, with or without a physical review of the coin.
What is there for the machine to learn? Either the coin meets the standard or it doesn't.
That’s a good question. The answer is that grading standards aren’t actually standards. A grade isn’t determined by precisely measuring the coin and “doing the math”, but by a highly subjective analysis based on physical inspection, knowledge and experience.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
@Onastone said:
Grading turnaround time would be fast. No more anticipation or human experience. In fact, you can purchase our AI Grading program today and grade your own coins at home. AIGS is also perfectly accurate, no need to try for an upgrade...no further grading required.
Because the machine would be constantly learning, and because the technology reading the coins would be regularly updated and improved, grades would be fluid, and grades would be time stamped. So for expensive coins with old time stamps, buyers might demand an updated grade, with or without a physical review of the coin.
What is there for the machine to learn? Either the coin meets the standard or it doesn't.
That’s a good question. The answer is that grading standards aren’t actually standards. A grade isn’t determined by precisely measuring the coin and “doing the math”, but by a highly subjective analysis based on physical inspection, knowledge and experience.
This is correct, but more importantly every single coin is different. You have to look at thousands and thousands and thousands of graded coins with all sorts of different characteristics to figure out what falls within a particular grade. Then you have to eliminate the things that shouldn’t be in that grade. Even then, you have to have the machine figure out how to interpret each individual coin’s unique characteristics (color, strike, marks, wear, etc). Really the ONLY way to achieve something close to objective grading is using machines.
@Onastone said:
Grading turnaround time would be fast. No more anticipation or human experience. In fact, you can purchase our AI Grading program today and grade your own coins at home. AIGS is also perfectly accurate, no need to try for an upgrade...no further grading required.
Because the machine would be constantly learning, and because the technology reading the coins would be regularly updated and improved, grades would be fluid, and grades would be time stamped. So for expensive coins with old time stamps, buyers might demand an updated grade, with or without a physical review of the coin.
What is there for the machine to learn? Either the coin meets the standard or it doesn't.
That’s a good question. The answer is that grading standards aren’t actually standards. A grade isn’t determined by precisely measuring the coin and “doing the math”, but by a highly subjective analysis based on physical inspection, knowledge and experience.
I get what you're saying, but for a machine to issue grades, there has to be a defined standard or criteria.
@Onastone said:
Grading turnaround time would be fast. No more anticipation or human experience. In fact, you can purchase our AI Grading program today and grade your own coins at home. AIGS is also perfectly accurate, no need to try for an upgrade...no further grading required.
Because the machine would be constantly learning, and because the technology reading the coins would be regularly updated and improved, grades would be fluid, and grades would be time stamped. So for expensive coins with old time stamps, buyers might demand an updated grade, with or without a physical review of the coin.
What is there for the machine to learn? Either the coin meets the standard or it doesn't.
That’s a good question. The answer is that grading standards aren’t actually standards. A grade isn’t determined by precisely measuring the coin and “doing the math”, but by a highly subjective analysis based on physical inspection, knowledge and experience.
I get what you're saying, but for a machine to issue grades, there has to be a defined standard or criteria.
Each coin will evaluated using an often vast number of criteria, but there will be no specific requirements for any single criteria for the coin to meet any given grade. In other words, the machine will add points for this, take away points for that, and come up with a single net grade. Same as the humans are doing it today.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
@Onastone said:
Grading turnaround time would be fast. No more anticipation or human experience. In fact, you can purchase our AI Grading program today and grade your own coins at home. AIGS is also perfectly accurate, no need to try for an upgrade...no further grading required.
Because the machine would be constantly learning, and because the technology reading the coins would be regularly updated and improved, grades would be fluid, and grades would be time stamped. So for expensive coins with old time stamps, buyers might demand an updated grade, with or without a physical review of the coin.
What is there for the machine to learn? Either the coin meets the standard or it doesn't.
That’s a good question. The answer is that grading standards aren’t actually standards. A grade isn’t determined by precisely measuring the coin and “doing the math”, but by a highly subjective analysis based on physical inspection, knowledge and experience.
I get what you're saying, but for a machine to issue grades, there has to be a defined standard or criteria.
Each coin will evaluated using an often vast number of criteria, but there will be no specific requirements for any single criteria for the coin to meet any given grade. In other words, the machine will add points for this, take away points for that, and come up with a single net grade. Same as the humans are doing it today.
You still have to develop/define standards and criteria for doing that...
Look at PCGS's Coin Grading videos. While they don't provide a hard/specific algorithm, they have a general formula and criteria that they apply.
@Onastone said:
Grading turnaround time would be fast. No more anticipation or human experience. In fact, you can purchase our AI Grading program today and grade your own coins at home. AIGS is also perfectly accurate, no need to try for an upgrade...no further grading required.
Because the machine would be constantly learning, and because the technology reading the coins would be regularly updated and improved, grades would be fluid, and grades would be time stamped. So for expensive coins with old time stamps, buyers might demand an updated grade, with or without a physical review of the coin.
What is there for the machine to learn? Either the coin meets the standard or it doesn't.
That’s a good question. The answer is that grading standards aren’t actually standards. A grade isn’t determined by precisely measuring the coin and “doing the math”, but by a highly subjective analysis based on physical inspection, knowledge and experience.
I get what you're saying, but for a machine to issue grades, there has to be a defined standard or criteria.
Each coin will evaluated using an often vast number of criteria, but there will be no specific requirements for any single criteria for the coin to meet any given grade. In other words, the machine will add points for this, take away points for that, and come up with a single net grade. Same as the humans are doing it today.
You still have to develop/define standards and criteria for doing that...
Look at PCGS's Coin Grading videos. While they don't provide a hard/specific algorithm, they have a general formula and criteria that they apply.
That’s the fun part about what we’re on the cusp of. The programmer won’t provide the criteria, the machine will provide the criteria based upon its review of millions of coins that were graded in the past by humans.
i went to a AI forum 3 weeks ago, there will be only 30 million jobs 20 years from now, and AI will be grading your coins too. one of the questions that was asked was " how do you make a living with only 30 million jobs available", the answer was, "you have to be independently wealthy" was the answer. glad i am not real young
@coinpalice said:
i went to a AI forum 3 weeks ago, there will be only 30 million jobs 20 years from now, and AI will be grading your coins too. one of the questions that was asked was " how do you make a living with only 30 million jobs available", the answer was, "you have to be independently wealthy" was the answer. glad i am not real young
If you believe that I have some ocean front property for you to consider.
just wait - the moment AI turns PCGS on and it violently turns on its graders. shippers, and administrative staff, it will be processing our orders at peak speed and responding to our customer service questions instantly - I'm personally kinda torn about the whole thing
Comments
It will likely be an AI self grading holder both coins & currency and worldwide. With pricing / auction realized app like coin facts. Holder / sticker game extinct.
As far as grading system unknown - could be 100 pt developed by international experts. Hopefully good coin preservation advances but any coins going bad in holder immediately devalued.
“Yes sir I understand you don’t think all 94 grade USA 1969-S 50c are the same value but the International commission and our experts on the program see your comment as a subjective fools errand. So that piece $100 our buy price / $125 sell via our online financial system. Not a buyer? Well goodbye and good-day then.
Can see it now. A new ID. AIGC=Art. Int. Graded Coin.
I think it will happen much sooner than most of us think. AI is already capable of preparing documents and using samples of voices and photos/videos to create new documents and videos that are frighteningly realistic, and the technology is constantly being improved. It's not hard to imagine it being used to grade coins using a series of scans. Initially it would have to rely on human input, but it would be able to interpolate that data and use it consistently on all series of coins. Try to imagine a 100 or 1,000 point grading scale, and no stickers!
Wouldn’t the definition for each grade need to be written way more specifically than they currently are?
US and British coin collector, and creator of The Ultimate Chuck E. Cheese's and Showbiz Pizza Place Token & Ticket Guide
I mean, for the computer. Maybe not. I’m not sure how they would teach a computer to grade. It seems like a computer would need very specific instructions.
US and British coin collector, and creator of The Ultimate Chuck E. Cheese's and Showbiz Pizza Place Token & Ticket Guide
Machine learning. They can look at human graded examples and learn what the grades are and how to grade based on past human decisions. It’s the same thing human graders do when they have a grading set to learn from. Unlike humans, an AI can look at thousands of exemplars simultaneously and kick out outliers and errors.
Grading turnaround time would be fast. No more anticipation or human experience. In fact, you can purchase our AI Grading program today and grade your own coins at home. AIGS is also perfectly accurate, no need to try for an upgrade...no further grading required.
It could only be an improvement.
I would rather join with an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by sheep.
Because the machine would be constantly learning, and because the technology reading the coins would be regularly updated and improved, grades would be fluid, and grades would be time stamped. So for expensive coins with old time stamps, buyers might demand an updated grade, with or without a physical review of the coin.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Every change to grading "systems" degrades the prior ones.
This search for the "perfect" grading of coins is not a good endeavor.
There's such a thing as overcomplication.
Miracles take longer 😳
I think it’s unreasonable to expect an intelligent grader - artificial or human - to stop learning on its first day at work. And it can’t be a good idea to choose inferior grading skills over superior ones. The trick for those of us using the service is to not obsess over grading methods and the grades, and focus more on the coins.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
AI won’t be grading coins. However I can easily see a time when image classification combined with some very clever coding will allow a grade to be assigned that is reasonable.
That could happen today if the market was such that it would pay enough to go through the effort. It would also need an enormous training data set so the cost of that would need to be factored in.
AI has become quite the buzzword lately becoming an umbrella term for image classification, NLP, and other unrelated technologies and techniques. As some in the industry have said, they wish people would never have coined the term artificial intelligence because it gives the wrong impression of what’s happening and makes people think too much that it is magic.
TurtleCat Gold Dollars
I made my daughter buy 50 shares of the stock AI on Friday
I'm sitting on 250 but want more.
Fun to trade or just hold.
Where AI or similar "expert systems" will eventually prove of practical help is in speed. Everybody complains about the backlog at the TPGs, and that backlog is caused almost entirely by the inability of a human grader to come up with an objective, repeatable grade opinion without looking at a coin for at least several seconds. If a well-built, well-programmed AI grading system can deliver comparable results to the humans in a fraction of the time (slashing the wait times from "several weeks" to "within a day"), it will be adopted and used.
Given adequate resources, the AI would also be very good at variety attribution and counterfeit detection, as well as detecting people trying the crackout game by recognizing the same coin it had seen earlier.
The only thing holding back the AI at the moment is the only thing holding back old-fashioned computer grading: consistency. Current-generation AI models have proven to be notoriously unreliable in terms of delivering consistent fact-based results to real-world problems; when faced with real-world ambiguity, the AI tends to just "make up stuff" rather than "try harder to find the truth".
Roman emperor Marcus Aurelius, "Meditations"
Apparently I have been awarded one DPOTD.
What is there for the machine to learn? Either the coin meets the standard or it doesn't.
First of all the term AI is very misused and most commonly just refers to an adaptive algorithm capable of interpreting a wide range of data including images and sound.
"AI" probably won't be grading "old" coins. As is the real challenge with self driving cars, the last few feet of the drive are near impossible to program. In self-driving, that would be knowing to find and select the right/best parking space, or knowing where the valet stand is, or where to pull up in front of a building to pick someone up, how to handle manual driving instructions (ie, at a construction zone or cop at an intersection where power is out).
A grading algorithm can probably be used for modern coins to hand out or discern between 69's and 70's. If anything, it will probably be brought in to "pre-grade" some coins but still have a team of finalizers.
That said, someone could always start an auto-grading & slabbing service which only uses a machine to grade. Likely those coins wouldn't have much credibility in the market place as collectors would always second guess the grades.
>
AI wouldn’t need to find an earlier “grading event” to stop the crackout game. It would do it by being consistent. Although matching the coin to earlier grading events would be useful in identifying doctored and counterfeit coins.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
That’s a good question. The answer is that grading standards aren’t actually standards. A grade isn’t determined by precisely measuring the coin and “doing the math”, but by a highly subjective analysis based on physical inspection, knowledge and experience.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
This is correct, but more importantly every single coin is different. You have to look at thousands and thousands and thousands of graded coins with all sorts of different characteristics to figure out what falls within a particular grade. Then you have to eliminate the things that shouldn’t be in that grade. Even then, you have to have the machine figure out how to interpret each individual coin’s unique characteristics (color, strike, marks, wear, etc). Really the ONLY way to achieve something close to objective grading is using machines.
I get what you're saying, but for a machine to issue grades, there has to be a defined standard or criteria.
Each coin will evaluated using an often vast number of criteria, but there will be no specific requirements for any single criteria for the coin to meet any given grade. In other words, the machine will add points for this, take away points for that, and come up with a single net grade. Same as the humans are doing it today.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
You still have to develop/define standards and criteria for doing that...
Look at PCGS's Coin Grading videos. While they don't provide a hard/specific algorithm, they have a general formula and criteria that they apply.
That’s the fun part about what we’re on the cusp of. The programmer won’t provide the criteria, the machine will provide the criteria based upon its review of millions of coins that were graded in the past by humans.
i went to a AI forum 3 weeks ago, there will be only 30 million jobs 20 years from now, and AI will be grading your coins too. one of the questions that was asked was " how do you make a living with only 30 million jobs available", the answer was, "you have to be independently wealthy" was the answer. glad i am not real young
Surely it will at least be quicker
If you believe that I have some ocean front property for you to consider.
just wait - the moment AI turns PCGS on and it violently turns on its graders. shippers, and administrative staff, it will be processing our orders at peak speed and responding to our customer service questions instantly - I'm personally kinda torn about the whole thing