Intelligent thinking and CAC

GiantsLover · December 20, 2021 5:43PM

I realize that intelligent self-thought and CAC don't really belong in the same sentence but I just have to say....

Let's say you have an 1881-S Morgan Dollar graded MS65. If CAC sells you a sucker sticker because they determine your coin is in the top 1/2, or 1/3, or whatever it is they claim they do, (assuming that was even humanly possible which it's not) that would require that CAC be looking at every single 1881-S Morgan dollar that's in a holder at that very moment to determine which are the lower 2/3 and which are the upper 1/3?

Okay....denial, yourrrrrr-up! LOL.

MasonG · December 20, 2021 5:56PM

You could have saved a few keystrokes by typing "I don't understand how CAC works" instead.

Protip- they have a website. If you're interested in educating yourself, you could check it out. Otherwise, you can just stay here and post some more.

MsMorrisine · December 20, 2021 5:57PM

Waiting 8 months to slam CAC won’t slow down the bam hammer

jmlanzaf · December 20, 2021 5:59PM

@MsMorrisine said:
Waiting 8 months to slam CAC won’t slow down the bam hammer

It delayed it 8 months...

Coinosaurus · December 20, 2021 6:01PM

JA has looked at enough 1881-S Morgans to know how they come.....probably thousands of them.

jmlanzaf · December 20, 2021 6:07PM

@Coinosaurus said:
JA has looked at enough 1881-S Morgans to know how they come.....probably thousands of them.

That's why teachers don't grade papers. I can't possibly determine an A grade if I haven't seen every paper ever written.

ReadyFireAim · December 20, 2021 6:21PM

You're making people who dislike CAC look dumb.
Please stop

MsMorrisine · December 20, 2021 6:24PM

https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/comment/12919499/#Comment_12919499

jdimmick · December 20, 2021 6:27PM

people like JA, have seen enough coins to know what is in the upper range for the grade. I havent seen no where near the number of 81-s he has seen, but I seen enough to know what is sticker worthy and what isnt.

cameonut2011 · December 20, 2021 6:39PM

I can look at an 1881-S Morgan (or any other Morgan) and tell you whether it is solid for the grade, high end, low end, or over graded. If I can do that, certainly someone who has been around as long as Albanese and crew could do it. It's not that hard.

pmh1nic · December 20, 2021 6:54PM

@jmlanzaf said:

@Coinosaurus said:
JA has looked at enough 1881-S Morgans to know how they come.....probably thousands of them.

That's why teachers don't grade papers. I can't possibly determine an A grade if I haven't seen every paper ever written.

That depends on whether or not you're grading on a curve and whether the criteria for a grade has remained constant.

jmlanzaf · December 20, 2021 6:55PM

@pmh1nic said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@Coinosaurus said:
JA has looked at enough 1881-S Morgans to know how they come.....probably thousands of them.

That's why teachers don't grade papers. I can't possibly determine an A grade if I haven't seen every paper ever written.

That depends on whether or not you're grading on a curve and whether the criteria for a grade has remained constant.

Sarcasm wasted.

Aotearoa · December 20, 2021 6:57PM

@jmlanzaf said:

@pmh1nic said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@Coinosaurus said:
JA has looked at enough 1881-S Morgans to know how they come.....probably thousands of them.

That's why teachers don't grade papers. I can't possibly determine an A grade if I haven't seen every paper ever written.

That depends on whether or not you're grading on a curve and whether the criteria for a grade has remained constant.

Sarcasm wasted.

But it was a good retort.

TurtleCat · December 20, 2021 6:59PM

I wonder if this is the same person yet again? Although the rhetoric is toned down some. Still, move on!

jmlanzaf · December 20, 2021 7:02PM

@Aotearoa said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@pmh1nic said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@Coinosaurus said:
JA has looked at enough 1881-S Morgans to know how they come.....probably thousands of them.

That's why teachers don't grade papers. I can't possibly determine an A grade if I haven't seen every paper ever written.

That depends on whether or not you're grading on a curve and whether the criteria for a grade has remained constant.

Sarcasm wasted.

But it was a good retort.

It was superfluous if you understood the sarcasm.

MasonG · December 20, 2021 7:11PM

@jmlanzaf said:
It was superfluous...

But was it original?

pmh1nic · December 20, 2021 7:27PM

@jmlanzaf said:

@pmh1nic said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@Coinosaurus said:
JA has looked at enough 1881-S Morgans to know how they come.....probably thousands of them.

That's why teachers don't grade papers. I can't possibly determine an A grade if I haven't seen every paper ever written.

That depends on whether or not you're grading on a curve and whether the criteria for a grade has remained constant.

Sarcasm wasted.

No, I understood the sarcasm and it didn't make much sense. Teacher do grade papers before having seen them all. They have some concept in mind regarding what merits an A grade versus a B grade when it comes to a paper. Does that concept remain a constant from year to year or even at the start of grading 50 term papers to the end? You would hope so as a student hoping for a fairly graded paper but knowing human beings that's probably not the case. So much for your poor attempt at sarcasm.

PCGS has graded close to 150K 1881-S Morgan dollars in 64 and 65. I imagine NGC has graded as many. I seriously doubt any one person has seen 10% of those coins so whatever judgement is being made about what constitutes the top 25% of 64 coins is making a guesstimate. It may be an educated guesstimate but it's a guesstimate based on viewing a small percentage of those coins.

That said the 1881-S example is an extreme as far as population numbers. There are coins that are far more rare where one person has seen a significant percentage of the coins that have been graded. Beyond that the statement that a particular coin is in the top 25% for the grade should be modified to add the top 25% of the coins I have seen.

jmlanzaf · December 20, 2021 7:32PM

@pmh1nic said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@pmh1nic said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@Coinosaurus said:
JA has looked at enough 1881-S Morgans to know how they come.....probably thousands of them.

That's why teachers don't grade papers. I can't possibly determine an A grade if I haven't seen every paper ever written.

That depends on whether or not you're grading on a curve and whether the criteria for a grade has remained constant.

Sarcasm wasted.

No, I understood the sarcasm and it didn't make much sense. Teacher do grade papers before having seen them all. They have some concept in mind regarding what merits an A grade versus a B grade when it comes to a paper. Does that concept remain a constant from year to year or even at the start of grading 50 term papers to the end? You would hope so as a student hoping for a fairly graded paper but knowing human beings that's probably not the case. So much for your poor attempt at sarcasm.

PCGS has graded close to 150K 1881-S Morgan dollars in 64 and 65. I imagine NGC has graded as many. I seriously doubt any one person has seen 10% of those coins so whatever judgement is being made about what constitutes the top 25% of 64 coins is making a guesstimate. It may be an educated guesstimate but it's a guesstimate based on viewing a small percentage of those coins.

That said the 1881-S example is an extreme as far as population numbers. There are coins that are far more rare where one person has seen a significant percentage of the coins that have been graded. Beyond that the statement that a particular coin is in the top 25% for the grade should be modified to add the top 25% of the coins I have seen.

Teacher=CAC

You clearly did NOT understand the sarcasm.

jmlanzaf · December 20, 2021 7:35PM

@MasonG said:

@jmlanzaf said:
It was superfluous...

But was it original?

Lustrous superfluity.

privatecoin · December 20, 2021 7:39PM

Poof or boom?

MasonG · December 20, 2021 7:44PM

@jmlanzaf said:

@MasonG said:

@jmlanzaf said:
It was superfluous...

But was it original?

Lustrous superfluity.

Will it sticker?

pmh1nic · December 20, 2021 7:46PM

@jmlanzaf said:

@pmh1nic said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@pmh1nic said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@Coinosaurus said:
JA has looked at enough 1881-S Morgans to know how they come.....probably thousands of them.

That's why teachers don't grade papers. I can't possibly determine an A grade if I haven't seen every paper ever written.

That depends on whether or not you're grading on a curve and whether the criteria for a grade has remained constant.

Sarcasm wasted.

No, I understood the sarcasm and it didn't make much sense. Teacher do grade papers before having seen them all. They have some concept in mind regarding what merits an A grade versus a B grade when it comes to a paper. Does that concept remain a constant from year to year or even at the start of grading 50 term papers to the end? You would hope so as a student hoping for a fairly graded paper but knowing human beings that's probably not the case. So much for your poor attempt at sarcasm.

PCGS has graded close to 150K 1881-S Morgan dollars in 64 and 65. I imagine NGC has graded as many. I seriously doubt any one person has seen 10% of those coins so whatever judgement is being made about what constitutes the top 25% of 64 coins is making a guesstimate. It may be an educated guesstimate but it's a guesstimate based on viewing a small percentage of those coins.

That said the 1881-S example is an extreme as far as population numbers. There are coins that are far more rare where one person has seen a significant percentage of the coins that have been graded. Beyond that the statement that a particular coin is in the top 25% for the grade should be modified to add the top 25% of the coins I have seen.

Teacher=CAC

You clearly did NOT understand the sarcasm.

I understood teacher=CAC and I understood your attempt at sarcasm. You don't understand the inconsistencies in what you wrote as they relate to the discussion at hand.

crazyhounddog · December 20, 2021 7:47PM

@GiantsLover said:
I realize that intelligent self-thought and CAC don't really belong in the same sentence but I just have to say....

Let's say you have an 1881-S Morgan Dollar graded MS65. If CAC sells you a sucker sticker because they determine your coin is in the top 1/2, or 1/3, or whatever it is they claim they do, (assuming that was even humanly possible which it's not) that would require that CAC be looking at every single 1881-S Morgan dollar that's in a holder at that very moment to determine which are the lower 2/3 and which are the upper 1/3?

Okay....denial, yourrrrrr-up! LOL.

So, what you are saying in short is you only collect CAC stickered coins. Got it👌

jmlanzaf · December 20, 2021 7:58PM

...

jmlanzaf · December 20, 2021 8:08PM

@pmh1nic said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@pmh1nic said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@pmh1nic said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@Coinosaurus said:
JA has looked at enough 1881-S Morgans to know how they come.....probably thousands of them.

That's why teachers don't grade papers. I can't possibly determine an A grade if I haven't seen every paper ever written.

That depends on whether or not you're grading on a curve and whether the criteria for a grade has remained constant.

Sarcasm wasted.

No, I understood the sarcasm and it didn't make much sense. Teacher do grade papers before having seen them all. They have some concept in mind regarding what merits an A grade versus a B grade when it comes to a paper. Does that concept remain a constant from year to year or even at the start of grading 50 term papers to the end? You would hope so as a student hoping for a fairly graded paper but knowing human beings that's probably not the case. So much for your poor attempt at sarcasm.

PCGS has graded close to 150K 1881-S Morgan dollars in 64 and 65. I imagine NGC has graded as many. I seriously doubt any one person has seen 10% of those coins so whatever judgement is being made about what constitutes the top 25% of 64 coins is making a guesstimate. It may be an educated guesstimate but it's a guesstimate based on viewing a small percentage of those coins.

That said the 1881-S example is an extreme as far as population numbers. There are coins that are far more rare where one person has seen a significant percentage of the coins that have been graded. Beyond that the statement that a particular coin is in the

Teacher=CAC

You clearly did NOT understand the sarcasm.

I understood teacher=CAC and I understood your attempt at sarcasm. You don't understand the inconsistencies in what you wrote as they relate to the discussion at hand.

Teacher=CAC
Papers=coins
Standards=standards

Sarcasm.

ms70 · December 20, 2021 8:09PM

The Giants suck.

jmlanzaf · December 20, 2021 8:29PM

@ms70 said:
The Giants suck.

They didn't sticker.

Off_Cent_er · December 20, 2021 8:31PM

@ms70 said:
The Giants suck.

I'll second that.

Coinosaurus · December 20, 2021 8:45PM

PCGS has graded close to 150K 1881-S Morgan dollars in 64 and 65. I imagine NGC has graded as many. I seriously doubt > any one person has seen 10% of those coins so whatever judgement is being made about what constitutes the top 25% of > 64 coins is making a guesstimate. It may be an educated guesstimate but it's a guesstimate based on viewing a small
percentage of those coins.

You don't have to see 10%, when even 1% is a statistically significant sample. Check out a sample size calculator.

Mgarmy · December 20, 2021 8:48PM

Yawn…irony in thread title

BryceM · December 20, 2021 8:50PM

@Mgarmy said:
Yawn

Beat me to it.

Justacommeman · December 20, 2021 8:51PM

*troll. They are everywhere

m

messydesk · December 20, 2021 9:01PM

This is a dumb thread.

pmh1nic · December 20, 2021 9:43PM

@Coinosaurus said:

PCGS has graded close to 150K 1881-S Morgan dollars in 64 and 65. I imagine NGC has graded as many. I seriously doubt > any one person has seen 10% of those coins so whatever judgement is being made about what constitutes the top 25% of > 64 coins is making a guesstimate. It may be an educated guesstimate but it's a guesstimate based on viewing a small
percentage of those coins.

You don't have to see 10%, when even 1% is a statistically significant sample. Check out a sample size calculator.

Really? Not when you have two grading companies that over the last 30 years have had shifting grading "standards". For 1% or 10% to be statistically significant you would have to start with a real standard that did change every five or ten years.

Along · December 20, 2021 10:04PM

@messydesk said:
This is a dumb thread.

So far this is the only comment of any value

PerryHall · December 21, 2021 3:15AM

Can this thread be moved to the CAC forum?

JBK · December 21, 2021 4:06AM

This thread didn't go downhill, it started at the bottom of the hill and went underground.

(Just wanted to post before the big red Closed sign gets hung).

Aercus · December 21, 2021 6:07AM

Let's make this thread slightly more educational. This is actually a common problem in industry. How can we estimate the proportion of an attribute in a population based on a sample. I will spare the detailed math, but the number is surprisingly small. If I wanted to estimate that I had 33% plus or minus 5%, with high confidence, I could sample 340 pieces and be confident in my benchmark. Is that less or more than you would think? Keep in mind this is for attribute (success/failure). I might need substantially less for a quantitative measure.

jmlanzaf · December 21, 2021 6:27AM

@Aercus said:
Let's make this thread slightly more educational. This is actually a common problem in industry. How can we estimate the proportion of an attribute in a population based on a sample. I will spare the detailed math, but the number is surprisingly small. If I wanted to estimate that I had 33% plus or minus 5%, with high confidence, I could sample 340 pieces and be confident in my benchmark. Is that less or more than you would think? Keep in mind this is for attribute (success/failure). I might need substantially less for a quantitative measure.

Ah, statistics. Underappreciated. You hear it all the time around elections when people want to doubt the polling. I've literally heard people say, "but who are they asking? I don't know anyone who was asked." Smh...

Mgarmy · December 21, 2021 6:49AM

Is 340 large enough to be a representative sample? Even if all the same year

Oldhoopster · December 21, 2021 7:19AM

Did you try posting here?

https://www.caccoin.com/forums/discussions

CoinJunkie · December 21, 2021 7:25AM

@jmlanzaf said:

@Aercus said:
Let's make this thread slightly more educational. This is actually a common problem in industry. How can we estimate the proportion of an attribute in a population based on a sample. I will spare the detailed math, but the number is surprisingly small. If I wanted to estimate that I had 33% plus or minus 5%, with high confidence, I could sample 340 pieces and be confident in my benchmark. Is that less or more than you would think? Keep in mind this is for attribute (success/failure). I might need substantially less for a quantitative measure.

Ah, statistics. Underappreciated. You hear it all the time around elections when people want to doubt the polling. I've literally heard people say, "but who are they asking? I don't know anyone who was asked." Smh...

Irrelevant.

ElmerFusterpuck · December 21, 2021 7:39AM

Yikes, a 3 post troll comes in here and makes me forget how to tie my own shoes! And these are ones with the Velcro straps, mind you.

"Intelligent self-thought"? More like pissing in a vat of ice tea then wondering why people are complaining about the bitter taste, instead praising the great mouthfeel and edgy fusion flavor.

jmlanzaf · December 21, 2021 8:46AM

@CoinJunkie said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@Aercus said:
Let's make this thread slightly more educational. This is actually a common problem in industry. How can we estimate the proportion of an attribute in a population based on a sample. I will spare the detailed math, but the number is surprisingly small. If I wanted to estimate that I had 33% plus or minus 5%, with high confidence, I could sample 340 pieces and be confident in my benchmark. Is that less or more than you would think? Keep in mind this is for attribute (success/failure). I might need substantially less for a quantitative measure.

Ah, statistics. Underappreciated. You hear it all the time around elections when people want to doubt the polling. I've literally heard people say, "but who are they asking? I don't know anyone who was asked." Smh...

Irrelevant.

Not really. It's the same fallacy that the OP introduced in the original screed. You don't have to sample 100% of the population to establish the norms for the population.

jmlanzaf · December 21, 2021 8:50AM

@Mgarmy said:
Is 340 large enough to be a representative sample? Even if all the same year

Depends on how the sampling was done. If completely random, depending on the required tolerance, yes.

https://www.qualtrics.com/experience-management/research/determine-sample-size/

jmlanzaf · December 21, 2021 8:56AM

What is a "self-thought"? Can you have a thought that doesn't emanate from one's self?

Intelligent thinking and CAC

Comments