Does anyone have experience between how our host and NGC grade coins? (Read to find out why I ask.)
Joe_360
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So as you may have heard, a PCGS graded MS-70 1999 American Silver Eagle bullion coin sold for $14,400 at a Heritage’s auction on April 22.
In the article it stated the our host has only graded 38 pieces at MS70 hence commanding such a price. So I did some research, and found that NGC has graded 359 1999 ASE at MS70. So I wondered, why such a large gap between the two companies?
Asking if our host was to grade those same 359 ASE, how many would come back graded at MS70? Does PCGS graded coins command a higher auction price than NGC? Is there a difference in standards?
I'm not trying to to make any bad statements against NGC, but 38 to 359 seems a bit odd to me, and as Robert Plant sang, "and it makes me wonder..."
Article quote: Despite a mintage of 7,408,640 pieces, Professional Coin Grading Service has certified just 38 in Mint State 70 according to its Population Report, making it a condition rarity within the series.
Comments
PCGS and NGC each have their own, proprietary grading standards and each endeavor to grade to those standards. While those standards overlap quite a bit for many grades and many series, there are some grades and some series where the standards might not be the same. Therefore, PCGS and NGC might see the same coin as a different grade and the market makes note of where there is an overlap and where there is a difference.
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You can find these overlaps that work both ways, for instance take 1940-S Lincolns in MS67+. PCGS pop shows 44 and 2 higher where NGC shows 3 none higher. There are hundreds or thousands of examples where the pops at each TPG is very different than the other. Both firms grade very similarly but not exactly the same in every instance.
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As I understand it for MS-70 the definitions differ between the two. For NGC its " As struck" and for PCGS its something like "extremely well struck". So for example, a small strike through would be acceptable as a 70 to NGC , but not to PCGS
This is a well known market phenomenon. That's all I shall say.
Those 2 numbers should not be directly compared. What is the total number graded by each service? NGC has graded 8x as many if I'm reading the census correctly.
Thanks for your feedback, but to be honest, that seems a bit strange also, what the owner of a 1999 ASE just happen to like NGC better than PCGS?
If you want to wonder some more, how many people holding those MS70s do you suppose would be willing to let you crack out and resubmit, at your cost, their coins and what do you suppose that response means?
Well there's a NGC MS 70 on eBay right now asking for $8499, so what if you did, and it came back MS70, that PCGS label just another ~ $6k in your pocket...
Anyway, that wasn't my question. Thanks
Good point. The far larger number of ASE submissions sent to NGC would certainly explain the larger number of MS70 ASE's graded by NGC.
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Price. NGC generally does a lot more moderns than PCGS.
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What he said only to add they weight luster differently on many circulated issues
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Some fun with numbers. For 1999 (all types), PCGS has graded 11,492 coins with 52 in 70 and 7,867 in 69. For 1999 (all types), NGC has graded 107,819 total coins with 358 in 70 and 103,611 in 69.
So, at PCGS 0.45% of coins (52/11,492) graded 70. At NGC, only 0.33%of coins (358/107,819) graded 70.
At PCGS, the 69/70 ratio is 151. A NGC, the 69/70 ratio is 289.
Based on pure numbers, it is harder to get a 70 at NGC than PCGS for this coin. Although they are so rare at both places, it's not worth worrying about the difference.
Thanks! Good Detective work!
Another point to consider.... To really analyze the difference, we would need the same coins to be submitted to both services...That would be the real test of grading opinions. Quantities submitted and results are interesting and bear consideration. But until a direct comparative study is performed, in a statistically significant quantity, we are just comparing numbers without meaningful context. Cheers, RickO
This misstates the nature of statistics. Unless there is a bias in which 100,000 coins were submitted to NGC or the 10,000 coins submitted to PCGS, the statistical comparison holds. That is a very large random sampling.
@jmlanzaf.... You are comparing two, totally separate operations.... Not the same coins, not performed by the same graders - therefore, interesting numbers but cannot be a conclusive indication of performance. Cheers, RickO
They ARE the "same coins." It is a random sampling of production. That's my point. They don't need to be the identical coin because they are each representative sampling of the entire mintage.
That part is accurate, however, the variable is the grading standards, and in order to determine that factor, the coins would need to be the same, graded at each facility, by the same individuals. That would be a true study. Cheers, RickO
@Ricko, you are using logic
@jmlanzaf, you are using statistics
And statistics holds true because as you pointed out the sample size is large enough.
For the logic approach to be performed, it would require a sample size of at least 30 gradings of the same coins to prove a difference in grading standards.
Again statistically, as pointed out, the same coins may not have been graded by both companies, but the coins graded were minted by the same mint, produced , packaged and shipped identically.
But it's a fair debate. Thanks
There is almost an absurdity in trying to spot differences in MS69 and MS70 in moderns.
Many times, I can see a difference in standards between the two in the Morgan Dollar series grades MS63, MS64, MS65
Everything else is beyond my limited skill set.
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Could the difference in the quantity of those coins submitted possibly be affected by the cost of grading differing at each of the two TPGs? Just curious as I've yet to submit any coins to either service. I will at a later date, however.
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Regardless of who grades these, $14,400 is a ridiculous amount of money to pay for an ounce of modern silver with a mintage over 7 million still available to sort through to send into your favorite grading service.
P.S. It is one of only a handful of eagles, that I do not own in 70 for that reason alone.
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From my time submitting US coins to both NGC and PCGS services, and watching what other people send in to both services over the past 25 years, I can say this: PCGS is a more conservative grading system than NGC when it comes to Mint State US Coins in general.
Very interesting and informative responses. Thanks all.
@jmlanzaf & @ricko
I am not knowledgable enough to 'weigh-in' on your debate (i.e., random sample vs. repeated measurements of the same coins).
That said, a MSA study would be interesting.
Would quantify the repeatability at each TPG.
Would also quantify the reproducibility across the TPGs.
Thank you both for an interesting discussion.
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There is a Coin World podcast in the past year that featured a grader (former?)
He talked about all the submission tricks like staging, and mentioned "old friends" that get passed around and resubmitted.
Once you are confident in grading a series, you will make better choices.
Being ruthless and a better grader and submitting fewer but better coins... it made my hit rate go straight up.
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Good discussion, thanks all for your contributions. Joe
Curious why you chose LOL at my comment on the high price? Part of the price it went for is because it was a Mercanti label with pop 14 of the 52. Some collect only Mercanti labels.
I paid $40 for my MS69 back in 2008 that I think looks better.
Here is another example below. If you want to wonder about values, this is only a pop 2 of the 52 as it is a first strike Mercanti and so is being offered for only $42,500
. Sometimes it is not about the grading service, but the lower pops of the labels that drives some people to pay more.
https://www.ebay.com/itm/303748217426?mkcid=1&mkrid=711-53200-19255-0&siteid=0&campid=5338308486&customid=&toolid=10001&mkevt=1
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Sorry, did not mean to often. Thanks for sharing
@Joe_360.
No worries. I just wanted to recommend if you are interested in buying these type of coins, to carefully study the coin itself. The pricing can vary drastically, and grading is subjective no matter who or what company is doing it. Coins can be crossed over, placed into different labels, and sent in multiple times.
Population reports can also be misleading without looking into the details as @jmlanzaf did a great job pointing out.
Don't expect to buy just any NGC 70 and expect it to crossover at PCGS to get a higher price, especially if it was marginal quality to begin with. In fact, many of them have already been sent in several times to try to play that game.
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