As a bright spot I have done a strong retail business online but one has to find a special area where chances high this successful. It could be CC coins, better date material, Classic Commems, etc.
Many market areas dropping one wonders where bottom will be. Good security, inventory management is a must.
With Dollars dropping like they have be sure look at the coin carefully before excitedly pressing the buy or bid button - avoid soft over ear, dogs, etc.
@Cougar1978 said:
Just like my strip clubbing hobby use my stage name on my coin dealing business card, burner phone number. No address, website or anything else. Beautiful coin photos though lol.
Do you go to strip clubs as a customer or as a performer?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
@Cougar1978 said:
Just like my strip clubbing hobby use my stage name on my coin dealing business card, burner phone number. No address, website or anything else. Beautiful coin photos though lol.
Do you go to strip clubs as a customer or as a performer?
He said he has a stage name, so I infer he is a performer!
I've heard the same from B&M dealers for over 30 years...
Mostly from the ones that if they can't beat widows over the head ripping their husbands collections for pennies on the dollar completely lack human interaction skills.
To Err Is Human.... To Collect Err's Is Just Too Much Darn Tootin Fun!
As in the stock market, further price declines will occur before buyers realize that coins are bargains again, to begin any sustained upward price movement. In other words, it will get worse before it gets better.
The demographics and lack of buyers is a concern for the coin hobby/business. I am somewhat in touch with the millennial mindset because I created a few of them. Coins are not important to them in their daily life. Plastic, plastic, plastic. My daughters seldom use cash or even write checks, coins are a nuisance to them, they long ago cashed in their statehood quarter collections we formed together out of circulation. In the chow line of the big corporation I work for, I am the old guy who holds up the checkout by fumbling with change - probably nine in ten swipe plastic.
Numismatics is just a hobby to me, and I really don't care where prices go. If rare coins become less expensive, great! I will always be interested in the history and beauty of coins.
Robert Scot: Engraving Liberty - biography of US Mint's first chief engraver
Or maybe it’s just the normal cycle of collectibles and coin collecting.
Various areas of the market are solid, and others are weak. Sure, if you bought two years ago you might be buried in a coin, but if you bought 20, maybe not. It all depends on your outlook. Buy what you like, keep what you want. Sell the other stuff. And is a loss of $50 being buried? Maybe. But I can spend that on dinner in a heartbeat, and not remember what I ate a week later. I still can enjoy the coin, even after I’m down $50....
I personally think generic gold, and classic gold is undervalued right now and a great pick up. I’m keeping that stuff if I can, when I can. Quality material is holding value, and will be around for a long time (even Indians in lower ms grades are holding up if they have additional stickers on them). Morgans in high grades, why not? Dirt cheap. MS 67s have held their own at price levels for over a year now.
Eh, doom and gloom! Run for the hills! No more collectors! Young folks gave up! Ahhhhhhh!
Surf
(Ps. I’ve git around 1000 Instagram followers....there are other platforms folks...and I didn’t even really try...!)
I'm still waiting for Lesher Dollars to be discounted so I can buy a couple.
The problem is, the prices have not dropped. And also, few are available at "regular" prices.
There are other items in the exonumia arena that are similar.
Wow. Great thread! (a few years old but great nonetheless.)
I've been wondering if there will be any market for coins at all in 40 years. Young people are literally fascinated by electronic devices and electronic payments. Bitcoins are cool, meanwhile real-coin is undervalued.
How are coin collectors created? Its not exactly something you would be interested in unless you were introduced to it by someone else. Many people including myself (65 years old) were given old hard to find coins by grandparents. You were expected to SAVE these coins and not spend them. Some of us, lost these coins to younger brothers who spent them on candy, or they were spent by our dear mothers on groceries etc.
I was a paperboy back in 1964 when silver coins including Franklin Half dollars were common. I collected them from my customers. Back then buying coins at a coin shop was unheard of, except in a big city. Talk about "found in pocket change" collectors, that was a habit born from a paper-route, which never ended.
My father who was born in the depression used to keep his old coins in a old mason glass jar. I have that collection now, its interesting and old, but sentimental to me. Its what spurred my interest in coins. I think that being able to actually hold a silver dollar in your hand was a thrill. Also seeing shiny steel pennies from WW2. They still look new.
I also collected coins as a Boy Scout. I earned the Coin Collecting Merit Badge, (which has probably since disappeared along with stamp collecting. ) But the cool thing was there were advisors who had some awesome collections. They introduced me to Proof Sets and Key Dates. When the time came, we took a field trip to a coin shop in a big city nearby and saw the old-fashioned auction boards, where you could consign your coins for bidding - that was before EBay. Young people would find that interesting. Coin collecting, and stamp collecting was fun back then.
The coin shop in my current town has an old eccentric guy who seems to be making a living off of selling things on eBay that other people have no idea of the true value. But he's not exactly getting rich. People walk into his shop with hoards they know nothing about. Many times they are simply dumping a shoebox of old coins. He wont even start to grade them. He says its all junk - melt value etc. But secretly he has told me that there's always one or two rarities. I wonder what'g going to happen if that guy dies. Does he have a succession plan? I would love to buy him out and run it as a retirement business.
I think the problem is young people (kids) don't know that some of those old coins they used to get in change buying candy bars or bubble gum have a collector value over their face value. What might help is if some social media savvy kid started a video blog on coin collecting and showed how you can get rich. I know there are some great videos on checking old bank rolls etc.
Sell Bitcoins,
Buy Realcoins
“When you don't know what you're talking about, it's hard to know when you're finished.” - Tommy Smothers
If the coin and political items markets are bad, I have yet to see it in the areas where I collect.
I was bidding in a political items auction that closed a couple of days ago. The prices were really strong and some of them went crazy. There were third party presidential buttons that had a minimum of $10 to $20 on them that went to over $300. I don't know who is doing the biding, but whoever they are they value those things far more than I do. I'm not talking about candidates like Eugene Debs either, who has always been popular and high priced. I'm talking about guys running as prohibitionists and free silver and Greenback Party monetary inflationists.
I have also been blown out of the water in Heritage sales. I never get any coin bargains. I always end up paying top dollar if I am successful, which isn't often.
Things might be slow at the brick and mortar stores, but the Internet auctions are hopping, and the Internet stores seem to be doing okay too.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
@Regulated said:
I think the elephant in the room is that most "rare" coins aren't rare. Much of what people have been trained to collect is fungible - that is, it can be easily replaced with an item that is essentially the same. Why stretch to buy anything that isn't irreplaceable?
Granted, third party grading helped to take common items and stratify their values, creating condition rarities for every issue, but in many cases, impressive looking examples of readily available coins are still available at a fraction of the cost of the finest pieces, and most people can barely tell the difference.
The consequence is that there isn't much pressure to buy 95% of the coins that come to market - we all know that something similar - or maybe something better - will come around next week.
This is the best post in this thread, by far. Rarity isn't everything but most coins are overly common, regardless of marketing to create the pretense that it is anything else.
I hear and see that the market is improving now, but I have my doubts that it really applies for the types coins most collectors buy.
To take another angle on this post, the generic problem that I see financially for too many coins is that the price is (totally) out of line for what it is as a collectible. Many prices have been inflated from the financialization of "collecting" and the "hobby".
Sold a Peace dollar for $35 out of the shop the other day. It was raw. I can remember not being able to get $15 for them a couple years ago. Now paying $25 and up.
Copper is like $4.50+ per pound, today.
But who would have guessed a clad quarter gotten free in 2020 ( roll searching) , dated 2020, made of copper and nickel would bring $50+ in the market, because it had a "w" mint mark ?
Seriously , it's not dead or dying. Morphing, I'd say. We die, but the hobby and market thrive.
Have to agree with @BillJones and @TwoSides2aCoin on this one. I personally don't see any decline in the coin market in the areas (early Federal, Colonial, Choice Type, Key Dates, early US gold) I am nosing around in. Demand appears fierce and the "good" pieces sell quickly for strong money, (on the few occasions I can even locate something desirable to me within my price range). I'm seeing this with online dealers, eBay, and in the bigger auctions.
I don't know if it's the pandemic or (?) but there seems to be more buyers with $$ in hand ready to go than there is supply of problem-free quality coins.
I definitely agree that things are changing and think they will continue to do so. Technology, hobby demographics, and the location of wealth will keep altering the future landscape. That said, I am more optimistic now than ever that there will always be a form of numismatics pursued in the future.
@dcarr said:
I'm still waiting for Lesher Dollars to be discounted so I can buy a couple.
The problem is, the prices have not dropped. And also, few are available at "regular" prices.
There are other items in the exonumia arena that are similar.
Lesher Dollars seem like some parts of the pattern market to me. Quite a few are available at high prices.
My experience has been the same as Bill's. My biggest issue is the lack of quality mid-market material. If I do find something I pay more than my research suggests is prudent or I get blown out.
@oldabeintx said:
My experience has been the same as Bill's. My biggest issue is the lack of quality mid-market material. If I do find something I pay more than my research suggests is prudent or I get blown out.
What is your market research based on? If your model is consistently underestimating prices, it may be time to adjust the model.
@oldabeintx said:
My experience has been the same as Bill's. My biggest issue is the lack of quality mid-market material. If I do find something I pay more than my research suggests is prudent or I get blown out.
What is your market research based on? If your model is consistently underestimating prices, it may be time to adjust the model.
Primarily auction results. I look at what appear to be the "best" examples for the grade, and of course when the auction occurred. As a rough guide I check the CAC price list, thinking that those are retail prices for solid coins, as well as the PCGS price guide. I also reference the pop reports for scarcer coins, to at least gage the available supply and the likelihood that I'll see another in the next year or so. To my mind these sources "suggest" an upper limit. I've had to stretch (or so it seems) on a number of occasions recently, actually setting a new auction record in some cases. This is especially true for CAC coins.
@oldabeintx said:
My experience has been the same as Bill's. My biggest issue is the lack of quality mid-market material. If I do find something I pay more than my research suggests is prudent or I get blown out.
What is your market research based on? If your model is consistently underestimating prices, it may be time to adjust the model.
Primarily auction results. I look at what appear to be the "best" examples for the grade, and of course when the auction occurred. As a rough guide I check the CAC price list, thinking that those are retail prices for solid coins, as well as the PCGS price guide. I also reference the pop reports for scarcer coins, to at least gage the available supply and the likelihood that I'll see another in the next year or so. To my mind these sources "suggest" an upper limit. I've had to stretch (or so it seems) on a number of occasions recently, actually setting a new auction record in some cases. This is especially true for CAC coins.
This sounds like the situation I mentioned above. I was unprepared to see the $5K price in 2019. I was prepared to see a much higher price in 2021 though I was hoping for lower. For this particular piece, these 3 specimens seem to be the only ones to come to market.
@dcarr said:
I'm still waiting for Lesher Dollars to be discounted so I can buy a couple.
The problem is, the prices have not dropped. And also, few are available at "regular" prices.
There are other items in the exonumia arena that are similar.
Lesher Dollars seem like some parts of the pattern market to me. Quite a few are available at high prices.
I'm not completely on top of the Lesher Dollar market, but I can tell you all about patterns. Yes, there are a lot of coins available, but that's mostly because there are 2000 different patterns to choose from. In fact, if you're looking for a specific pattern, including many of the relatively common ones, it can be brutally difficult to find one, much less one you'll like at the grade and price.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I saw a noticeable slide in prices for gold LIb's / saints from 2018-to Feb 2020. Things were so bad, I was able to buy generics below spot. The gov't couldn't sell many gold bullion coins either so I knew I wasn't alone. . I was selling DE's at small premiums to spot just to raise cash to pay for new purchases. . Even so, i was accumulating more than I was selling.
Fast forward from mid 2020 to now and the premiums seem to be the highest I've received in the past 5-7 years. I am selling coins regularly but I am unable to replace very much inventory.
@jkrk said:
I mainly am involved in the $20 DE market.
I saw a noticeable slide in prices for gold LIb's / saints from 2018-to Feb 2020. Things were so badgood, I was able to buy generics below spot. The gov't couldn't sell many gold bullion coins either so I knew I wasn't alone. . I was selling DE's at small premiums to spot just to raise cash to pay for new purchases. . Even so, i was accumulating more than I was selling.
Fast forward from mid 2020 to now and the premiums seem to be the highest I've received in the past 5-7 years. I am selling coins regularly but I am unable to replace very much inventory.
@dcarr said:
I'm still waiting for Lesher Dollars to be discounted so I can buy a couple.
The problem is, the prices have not dropped. And also, few are available at "regular" prices.
There are other items in the exonumia arena that are similar.
Lesher Dollars seem like some parts of the pattern market to me. Quite a few are available at high prices.
I'm not completely on top of the Lesher Dollar market, but I can tell you all about patterns. Yes, there are a lot of coins available, but that's mostly because there are 2000 different patterns to choose from. In fact, if you're looking for a specific pattern, including many of the relatively common ones, it can be brutally difficult to find one, much less one you'll like at the grade and price.
In this respect Patterns are a bit like So-Called Dollars, both series with many types and varieties. It may be useful to create sub-categories of both to highlight the more popular types.
@jkrk said:
I mainly am involved in the $20 DE market.
I saw a noticeable slide in prices for gold LIb's / saints from 2018-to Feb 2020. Things were so badgood, I was able to buy generics below spot. The gov't couldn't sell many gold bullion coins either so I knew I wasn't alone. . I was selling DE's at small premiums to spot just to raise cash to pay for new purchases. . Even so, i was accumulating more than I was selling.
Fast forward from mid 2020 to now and the premiums seem to be the highest I've received in the past 5-7 years. I am selling coins regularly but I am unable to replace very much inventory.
Times do change.
Fixed it for you
Yes. Good catch.
However, you couldn't say that in the Bizarro world.
@jkrk said:
I mainly am involved in the $20 DE market.
I saw a noticeable slide in prices for gold LIb's / saints from 2018-to Feb 2020. Things were so bad, I was able to buy generics below spot. The gov't couldn't sell many gold bullion coins either so I knew I wasn't alone. . I was selling DE's at small premiums to spot just to raise cash to pay for new purchases. . Even so, i was accumulating more than I was selling.
Fast forward from mid 2020 to now and the premiums seem to be the highest I've received in the past 5-7 years. I am selling coins regularly but I am unable to replace very much inventory.
Times do change.
What you saw in the bullion market was a reflection of people’s perceptions of where it was headed. The gold spot price is one thing; the prices for low grade old gold coins that really have no or limited numismatic value is another.
When gold coin buyers perceive that the bullion price has peaked and probably headed downward, they stop buying, and those coins sell for a bit under the spot price. I have seen this happen a few times over a 25 to 30 year period. Usually the coin buyers are providing an indication of where bullion prices are going in the short term. You might say they are “the smart money” or the “canary in the coal mine.”
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
At the end of the day shops and collectors can’t have it both ways. Meaning if you don’t support shops the shops won’t be there. I find good shops that truly provide decent experiences do well. Collectors go there and feel that they are getting a FAIR value buying and selling. Shops with no inventory trying to make rips on consumers with no idea tend to be at the bottom of my list.
@ScarsdaleCoin said:
At the end of the day shops and collectors can’t have it both ways. Meaning if you don’t support shops the shops won’t be there. I find good shops that truly provide decent experiences do well. Collectors go there and feel that they are getting a FAIR value buying and selling. Shops with no inventory trying to make rips on consumers with no idea tend to be at the bottom of my list.
I live in a county with 3.5 million people and the closest coin shop is 50 miles away in another county. We have a few pawn shops and bullion places but no coin shops. I suspect high rents and security concerns are the biggest problem and of course competing with the internet.
My local coin shop has two long time locations, they have been around for at least 40 years. They have 8k plus listing on Ebay, They have a stamp specialist. I was in a few weeks ago and one of their long time customers came in waring gold chain ropes, gold watch, gold rings looking to buy more. He has good stock on $100 face silver on dimes, quarters and halves for less than the other dealer I was buying from. There are usually multiple customers when I drop in. I still can't believe how clad values have risen. Now when I CRH in halves I don't even care if silver shows up or not. Every day is a blessing. Cheers.
I often think, "Oh, things are slowing down" until they pick back up again, and they always do. Either you sell something that's been sitting, or something you just put up goes right away. Or someone reaches out with something to sell. It's been steady growth over the past 3 years, particularly for medals.
Two years ago I was a "tired long" when it came to typical and choice BU rolls of moderns and I hauled hundreds of low priced rolls to the bank just to get rid of them. Now some of these rolls still list for almost nothing but buyers are paying huge premiums. I knew all along the coins were scarce in pristine condition but I am selling everything and still have many safety deposit boxes to empty. People believe Ikes are worthless but nice chBU rolls are wholesaling for $70 now. These aren't Gems just nice attractive coins without spotting. I expect these prices to increase unless there is a large drop in demand because the supply is very tight. Demand is not being met. Even cheap penny rolls from the '80's and '90's bring prices of 10 or $20 because nice attractive pristine rolls are not so common as everyone believes and if you have retail customers you need stock. Most of these rolls are tarnished and some are positively rotted. Even the older coins that should be easy like the '71-S cent requires about four typical rolls to run together to make one nice roll. '71-S cent rolls were elusive in 1972 and they are much tougher today. Very little demand has forced the wholesale price up to 20c per coin.
I've always believed the demand for moderns would come from the bottom up and now there is finally a little demand showing up in prices. Wait till you see what a nice choice roll of '84 cents go for in a few years!!! No, not the Redbook or catalog prices because they'll still be grossly underreporting values but rather the actual wholesale price. Only about 15,000,000 of these were saved but most looked like junk then and almost all 15,000,000 have spotted or tarnished. '68 cent prices might surprise some people too.
Reported prices are largely set by what poorly made junk that has gone bad might sell for if there is a buyer. Pristine coins are different and there is finally some demand.
@jkrk said:
I mainly am involved in the $20 DE market.
I saw a noticeable slide in prices for gold LIb's / saints from 2018-to Feb 2020. Things were so bad, I was able to buy generics below spot. The gov't couldn't sell many gold bullion coins either so I knew I wasn't alone. . I was selling DE's at small premiums to spot just to raise cash to pay for new purchases. . Even so, i was accumulating more than I was selling.
Fast forward from mid 2020 to now and the premiums seem to be the highest I've received in the past 5-7 years. I am selling coins regularly but I am unable to replace very much inventory.
Times do change.
What you saw in the bullion market was a reflection of people’s perceptions of where it was headed. The gold spot price is one thing; the prices for low grade old gold coins that really have no or limited numismatic value is another.
When gold coin buyers perceive that the bullion price has peaked and probably headed downward, they stop buying, and those coins sell for a bit under the spot price. I have seen this happen a few times over a 25 to 30 year period. Usually the coin buyers are providing an indication of where bullion prices are going in the short term. You might say they are “the smart money” or the “canary in the coal mine.”
I respect your analysis since you are far more experienced than I am.
Reading your posting, are you saying that coins sell below spot when sentiment regarding gold turns negative? Thus, today, despite the top of the market being in Aug 2020 buyers are still optimistic about future gold's prospect. I am not talking about the predictive value of sentiment but rather a perception of future price movement measured at that moment in time.
The problem with the coin market inventory is 80-90% of common ms 64-65 coins don’t have terrific eye appeal. I went to some local N.Y. shows and looked at several hundred coins on the internet and very few have the combination of exceptional luster, minimal surface marks, strike and and no black spots or toning streaks. I have assembled a small set of 20th century type coins and cannot find an amazing looking standing liberty quarter under $500 to complete my set. All the 64 and 65 quarters are simply not exceptional in eye appeal
The coins I buy have amazing eye appeal and I have spent hundreds of hours admiring them due to their beauty and I have not spent 67-68 money to acquire them.
@robbylu52 said:
The problem with the coin market inventory is 80-90% of common ms 64-65 coins don’t have terrific eye appeal. I went to some local N.Y. shows and looked at several hundred coins on the internet and very few have the combination of exceptional luster, minimal surface marks, strike and and no black spots or toning streaks. I have assembled a small set of 20th century type coins and cannot find an amazing looking standing liberty quarter under $500 to complete my set. All the 64 and 65 quarters are simply not exceptional in eye appeal
I don’t know which company graded those coins, but if they have MS-64 and especially MS-65 on them and don’t have eye appeal, it very likely that they are over graded. You might be looking at boxes or even cases full of “C coins.” They are out there. I have literally seen cases full of them at the shows over the years. Usually they are St. Gaudens $20 coins or 1926 or ‘32 $10 Indians.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
@blitzdude said:
Are there any bright spots? You bet, as a buyer you can regularly buy pre 33 US gold coins under the spot price of gold. Same with rolls of 90% silver coins. Slabbed Morgans and Peace dollars, I've never seen them cheaper. Buy low sell high my friends.
Those days left us probably two years ago. Used to pick up plenty of pre-33 at LCD and local shows at or very near spot/melt prices. Not any longer. Now premiums have gotten much higher. I guess I disagree with the general premise of the OP. Since I buy mostly pre-1933 gold I have seen no slowing either at my local B&M store, shows or internet.
If the question is "Are B&M shops seeing tougher times?" Yeah, I'm sure my local guy would agree it's not a simple business. As for getting great deals using eBay bucks... seriously any "deals" on that sight are limited and I'm not buying tons of over-priced junk to collect the bucks.
When I go out and look for something on the internet or shows I still rarely see any great "deals" to be had. I do still see some at local shops on occasion. Again, my perspective is mostly, but not entirely, from the pre-1933 gold side of things.
Comments
As a bright spot I have done a strong retail business online but one has to find a special area where chances high this successful. It could be CC coins, better date material, Classic Commems, etc.
Many market areas dropping one wonders where bottom will be. Good security, inventory management is a must.
With Dollars dropping like they have be sure look at the coin carefully before excitedly pressing the buy or bid button - avoid soft over ear, dogs, etc.
Do you go to strip clubs as a customer or as a performer?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
He said he has a stage name, so I infer he is a performer!
Work is work. When it's slow we complain because it's dead. When it's busy, we complain cause we can't keep up. Same in most trades.
I've heard the same from B&M dealers for over 30 years...
Mostly from the ones that if they can't beat widows over the head ripping their husbands collections for pennies on the dollar completely lack human interaction skills.
As in the stock market, further price declines will occur before buyers realize that coins are bargains again, to begin any sustained upward price movement. In other words, it will get worse before it gets better.
The demographics and lack of buyers is a concern for the coin hobby/business. I am somewhat in touch with the millennial mindset because I created a few of them. Coins are not important to them in their daily life. Plastic, plastic, plastic. My daughters seldom use cash or even write checks, coins are a nuisance to them, they long ago cashed in their statehood quarter collections we formed together out of circulation. In the chow line of the big corporation I work for, I am the old guy who holds up the checkout by fumbling with change - probably nine in ten swipe plastic.
Numismatics is just a hobby to me, and I really don't care where prices go. If rare coins become less expensive, great! I will always be interested in the history and beauty of coins.
Young people can use plastic all day and not care about pocket change and still collect classic coins out of an appreciation for art and history.
These dropping prices have made my building of my gold type set fun.
My YouTube Channel
Doom and gloom! Doom and gloom! Doom and gloom!
Or maybe it’s just the normal cycle of collectibles and coin collecting.
Various areas of the market are solid, and others are weak. Sure, if you bought two years ago you might be buried in a coin, but if you bought 20, maybe not. It all depends on your outlook. Buy what you like, keep what you want. Sell the other stuff. And is a loss of $50 being buried? Maybe. But I can spend that on dinner in a heartbeat, and not remember what I ate a week later. I still can enjoy the coin, even after I’m down $50....
I personally think generic gold, and classic gold is undervalued right now and a great pick up. I’m keeping that stuff if I can, when I can. Quality material is holding value, and will be around for a long time (even Indians in lower ms grades are holding up if they have additional stickers on them). Morgans in high grades, why not? Dirt cheap. MS 67s have held their own at price levels for over a year now.
Eh, doom and gloom! Run for the hills! No more collectors! Young folks gave up! Ahhhhhhh!
Surf
(Ps. I’ve git around 1000 Instagram followers....there are other platforms folks...and I didn’t even really try...!)
I'm still waiting for Lesher Dollars to be discounted so I can buy a couple.
The problem is, the prices have not dropped. And also, few are available at "regular" prices.
There are other items in the exonumia arena that are similar.
Wow. Great thread! (a few years old but great nonetheless.)
I've been wondering if there will be any market for coins at all in 40 years. Young people are literally fascinated by electronic devices and electronic payments. Bitcoins are cool, meanwhile real-coin is undervalued.
How are coin collectors created? Its not exactly something you would be interested in unless you were introduced to it by someone else. Many people including myself (65 years old) were given old hard to find coins by grandparents. You were expected to SAVE these coins and not spend them. Some of us, lost these coins to younger brothers who spent them on candy, or they were spent by our dear mothers on groceries etc.
I was a paperboy back in 1964 when silver coins including Franklin Half dollars were common. I collected them from my customers. Back then buying coins at a coin shop was unheard of, except in a big city. Talk about "found in pocket change" collectors, that was a habit born from a paper-route, which never ended.
My father who was born in the depression used to keep his old coins in a old mason glass jar. I have that collection now, its interesting and old, but sentimental to me. Its what spurred my interest in coins. I think that being able to actually hold a silver dollar in your hand was a thrill. Also seeing shiny steel pennies from WW2. They still look new.
I also collected coins as a Boy Scout. I earned the Coin Collecting Merit Badge, (which has probably since disappeared along with stamp collecting. ) But the cool thing was there were advisors who had some awesome collections. They introduced me to Proof Sets and Key Dates. When the time came, we took a field trip to a coin shop in a big city nearby and saw the old-fashioned auction boards, where you could consign your coins for bidding - that was before EBay. Young people would find that interesting. Coin collecting, and stamp collecting was fun back then.
The coin shop in my current town has an old eccentric guy who seems to be making a living off of selling things on eBay that other people have no idea of the true value. But he's not exactly getting rich. People walk into his shop with hoards they know nothing about. Many times they are simply dumping a shoebox of old coins. He wont even start to grade them. He says its all junk - melt value etc. But secretly he has told me that there's always one or two rarities. I wonder what'g going to happen if that guy dies. Does he have a succession plan? I would love to buy him out and run it as a retirement business.
I think the problem is young people (kids) don't know that some of those old coins they used to get in change buying candy bars or bubble gum have a collector value over their face value. What might help is if some social media savvy kid started a video blog on coin collecting and showed how you can get rich. I know there are some great videos on checking old bank rolls etc.
Sell Bitcoins,
Buy Realcoins
No bright spot here in the Canadian coin market.
Don't have any Canadian dealer tell you otherwise.
Actually, it's been in a huge depression since 2009.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
If the coin and political items markets are bad, I have yet to see it in the areas where I collect.
I was bidding in a political items auction that closed a couple of days ago. The prices were really strong and some of them went crazy. There were third party presidential buttons that had a minimum of $10 to $20 on them that went to over $300. I don't know who is doing the biding, but whoever they are they value those things far more than I do. I'm not talking about candidates like Eugene Debs either, who has always been popular and high priced. I'm talking about guys running as prohibitionists and free silver and Greenback Party monetary inflationists.
I have also been blown out of the water in Heritage sales. I never get any coin bargains. I always end up paying top dollar if I am successful, which isn't often.
Things might be slow at the brick and mortar stores, but the Internet auctions are hopping, and the Internet stores seem to be doing okay too.
This is the best post in this thread, by far. Rarity isn't everything but most coins are overly common, regardless of marketing to create the pretense that it is anything else.
I hear and see that the market is improving now, but I have my doubts that it really applies for the types coins most collectors buy.
To take another angle on this post, the generic problem that I see financially for too many coins is that the price is (totally) out of line for what it is as a collectible. Many prices have been inflated from the financialization of "collecting" and the "hobby".
Sold a Peace dollar for $35 out of the shop the other day. It was raw. I can remember not being able to get $15 for them a couple years ago. Now paying $25 and up.
Copper is like $4.50+ per pound, today.
But who would have guessed a clad quarter gotten free in 2020 ( roll searching) , dated 2020, made of copper and nickel would bring $50+ in the market, because it had a "w" mint mark ?
Seriously , it's not dead or dying. Morphing, I'd say. We die, but the hobby and market thrive.
Onto another decade.
Have to agree with @BillJones and @TwoSides2aCoin on this one. I personally don't see any decline in the coin market in the areas (early Federal, Colonial, Choice Type, Key Dates, early US gold) I am nosing around in. Demand appears fierce and the "good" pieces sell quickly for strong money, (on the few occasions I can even locate something desirable to me within my price range). I'm seeing this with online dealers, eBay, and in the bigger auctions.
I don't know if it's the pandemic or (?) but there seems to be more buyers with $$ in hand ready to go than there is supply of problem-free quality coins.
I definitely agree that things are changing and think they will continue to do so. Technology, hobby demographics, and the location of wealth will keep altering the future landscape. That said, I am more optimistic now than ever that there will always be a form of numismatics pursued in the future.
What slow down?
Here's an item I'm following. 3 specimens.
Lesher Dollars seem like some parts of the pattern market to me. Quite a few are available at high prices.
Old thread posted in 2018.
The coin business for me from 2018 to now has had exponential growth and continues today.
My experience has been the same as Bill's. My biggest issue is the lack of quality mid-market material. If I do find something I pay more than my research suggests is prudent or I get blown out.
What is your market research based on? If your model is consistently underestimating prices, it may be time to adjust the model.
Primarily auction results. I look at what appear to be the "best" examples for the grade, and of course when the auction occurred. As a rough guide I check the CAC price list, thinking that those are retail prices for solid coins, as well as the PCGS price guide. I also reference the pop reports for scarcer coins, to at least gage the available supply and the likelihood that I'll see another in the next year or so. To my mind these sources "suggest" an upper limit. I've had to stretch (or so it seems) on a number of occasions recently, actually setting a new auction record in some cases. This is especially true for CAC coins.
This sounds like the situation I mentioned above. I was unprepared to see the $5K price in 2019. I was prepared to see a much higher price in 2021 though I was hoping for lower. For this particular piece, these 3 specimens seem to be the only ones to come to market.
I'm not completely on top of the Lesher Dollar market, but I can tell you all about patterns. Yes, there are a lot of coins available, but that's mostly because there are 2000 different patterns to choose from. In fact, if you're looking for a specific pattern, including many of the relatively common ones, it can be brutally difficult to find one, much less one you'll like at the grade and price.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I mainly am involved in the $20 DE market.
I saw a noticeable slide in prices for gold LIb's / saints from 2018-to Feb 2020. Things were so bad, I was able to buy generics below spot. The gov't couldn't sell many gold bullion coins either so I knew I wasn't alone. . I was selling DE's at small premiums to spot just to raise cash to pay for new purchases. . Even so, i was accumulating more than I was selling.
Fast forward from mid 2020 to now and the premiums seem to be the highest I've received in the past 5-7 years. I am selling coins regularly but I am unable to replace very much inventory.
Times do change.
Fixed it for you
In this respect Patterns are a bit like So-Called Dollars, both series with many types and varieties. It may be useful to create sub-categories of both to highlight the more popular types.
Yes. Good catch.
However, you couldn't say that in the Bizarro world.
What you saw in the bullion market was a reflection of people’s perceptions of where it was headed. The gold spot price is one thing; the prices for low grade old gold coins that really have no or limited numismatic value is another.
When gold coin buyers perceive that the bullion price has peaked and probably headed downward, they stop buying, and those coins sell for a bit under the spot price. I have seen this happen a few times over a 25 to 30 year period. Usually the coin buyers are providing an indication of where bullion prices are going in the short term. You might say they are “the smart money” or the “canary in the coal mine.”
At the end of the day shops and collectors can’t have it both ways. Meaning if you don’t support shops the shops won’t be there. I find good shops that truly provide decent experiences do well. Collectors go there and feel that they are getting a FAIR value buying and selling. Shops with no inventory trying to make rips on consumers with no idea tend to be at the bottom of my list.
I live in a county with 3.5 million people and the closest coin shop is 50 miles away in another county. We have a few pawn shops and bullion places but no coin shops. I suspect high rents and security concerns are the biggest problem and of course competing with the internet.
Lending to the phrase:
"You get out what you put in ". Some work is easier than other. It's a no brainer capitalizing on those who screw stuff up.
A lot has changed since this thread was launched. Market considerably better than then.
I think it’s getting bigger, every time I go to a coin show there more people than the last
My local coin shop has two long time locations, they have been around for at least 40 years. They have 8k plus listing on Ebay, They have a stamp specialist. I was in a few weeks ago and one of their long time customers came in waring gold chain ropes, gold watch, gold rings looking to buy more. He has good stock on $100 face silver on dimes, quarters and halves for less than the other dealer I was buying from. There are usually multiple customers when I drop in. I still can't believe how clad values have risen. Now when I CRH in halves I don't even care if silver shows up or not. Every day is a blessing. Cheers.
I often think, "Oh, things are slowing down" until they pick back up again, and they always do. Either you sell something that's been sitting, or something you just put up goes right away. Or someone reaches out with something to sell. It's been steady growth over the past 3 years, particularly for medals.
Dealing in Canadian and American coins and historical medals.
Two years ago I was a "tired long" when it came to typical and choice BU rolls of moderns and I hauled hundreds of low priced rolls to the bank just to get rid of them. Now some of these rolls still list for almost nothing but buyers are paying huge premiums. I knew all along the coins were scarce in pristine condition but I am selling everything and still have many safety deposit boxes to empty. People believe Ikes are worthless but nice chBU rolls are wholesaling for $70 now. These aren't Gems just nice attractive coins without spotting. I expect these prices to increase unless there is a large drop in demand because the supply is very tight. Demand is not being met. Even cheap penny rolls from the '80's and '90's bring prices of 10 or $20 because nice attractive pristine rolls are not so common as everyone believes and if you have retail customers you need stock. Most of these rolls are tarnished and some are positively rotted. Even the older coins that should be easy like the '71-S cent requires about four typical rolls to run together to make one nice roll. '71-S cent rolls were elusive in 1972 and they are much tougher today. Very little demand has forced the wholesale price up to 20c per coin.
I've always believed the demand for moderns would come from the bottom up and now there is finally a little demand showing up in prices. Wait till you see what a nice choice roll of '84 cents go for in a few years!!! No, not the Redbook or catalog prices because they'll still be grossly underreporting values but rather the actual wholesale price. Only about 15,000,000 of these were saved but most looked like junk then and almost all 15,000,000 have spotted or tarnished. '68 cent prices might surprise some people too.
Reported prices are largely set by what poorly made junk that has gone bad might sell for if there is a buyer. Pristine coins are different and there is finally some demand.
I respect your analysis since you are far more experienced than I am.
Reading your posting, are you saying that coins sell below spot when sentiment regarding gold turns negative? Thus, today, despite the top of the market being in Aug 2020 buyers are still optimistic about future gold's prospect. I am not talking about the predictive value of sentiment but rather a perception of future price movement measured at that moment in time.
The problem with the coin market inventory is 80-90% of common ms 64-65 coins don’t have terrific eye appeal. I went to some local N.Y. shows and looked at several hundred coins on the internet and very few have the combination of exceptional luster, minimal surface marks, strike and and no black spots or toning streaks. I have assembled a small set of 20th century type coins and cannot find an amazing looking standing liberty quarter under $500 to complete my set. All the 64 and 65 quarters are simply not exceptional in eye appeal
The coins I buy have amazing eye appeal and I have spent hundreds of hours admiring them due to their beauty and I have not spent 67-68 money to acquire them.
I bought 65 coins that have the look of some 67 coins out there.
I don’t know which company graded those coins, but if they have MS-64 and especially MS-65 on them and don’t have eye appeal, it very likely that they are over graded. You might be looking at boxes or even cases full of “C coins.” They are out there. I have literally seen cases full of them at the shows over the years. Usually they are St. Gaudens $20 coins or 1926 or ‘32 $10 Indians.
Those days left us probably two years ago. Used to pick up plenty of pre-33 at LCD and local shows at or very near spot/melt prices. Not any longer. Now premiums have gotten much higher. I guess I disagree with the general premise of the OP. Since I buy mostly pre-1933 gold I have seen no slowing either at my local B&M store, shows or internet.
If the question is "Are B&M shops seeing tougher times?" Yeah, I'm sure my local guy would agree it's not a simple business. As for getting great deals using eBay bucks... seriously any "deals" on that sight are limited and I'm not buying tons of over-priced junk to collect the bucks.
When I go out and look for something on the internet or shows I still rarely see any great "deals" to be had. I do still see some at local shops on occasion. Again, my perspective is mostly, but not entirely, from the pre-1933 gold side of things.