It's not just Jordan that is jumping in value. Cards are doubling in value in mere weeks right now. I personally do not think this is rational. I made a spreadsheet in early Dec with target cards and what I wanted to spend based on fair market. Those estimates I put down now look woefully weak. Doubling in just weeks. In some case, even more.
@BriantheTaxGuy said:
Revisiting this thread because I was perusing eBay auctions.
Holy cow. Prices have literally doubled on 8s - they are regularly closing above 12k and one closed yesterday at 16k with multiple bidders above 15k.
PSA 10 at the end of December selling for north of 200k.
It's fascinating to watch and makes me think of selling my 8 but without a need for the funds I will just continue to watch the escalation.
I could have wrote that post myself. I too have a PSA 8. I don't want to sell because I always want to own a Jordan rookie. I considered selling during the Last Dance hype a few months ago.
As I am watching these prices I'm glad I didn't. However there has to be a leveling off point eventually and even a shift downward. Where is it? I have no idea. This past summer I have said on multiple occasions that I thought that PSA 8 examples would settle back down to the $4,000 to $5,000 range. For a few months before the holidays they had settled down around the $6,000 to $7,000 range. It stayed that way for a good while. The last three weeks they have exploded again. I am assuming it is because the PSA 10 shot up to $200,000. The people that were in the market for PSA 10 could no longer afford them and shifted to PSA 9 which made those explode to the $30,000 range. Now it's a domino effect on down. I too am seeing PSA 8 examples in the $12,000 to $16,000 range.
At some point I have got to consider selling and maybe downgrading to a PSA 7. I'm not all that picky on condition. A nice example of a PSA 7 would be perfectly fine for my collection. At this point I could probably sell my nicely centered PSA 8 for $15,000 and buy a PSA 7 for half the price and pocket the rest. My luck I would sell and PSA 8s would jump to $20,000. I just don't know what to do at this point.
@BriantheTaxGuy said:
Revisiting this thread because I was perusing eBay auctions.
Holy cow. Prices have literally doubled on 8s - they are regularly closing above 12k and one closed yesterday at 16k with multiple bidders above 15k.
PSA 10 at the end of December selling for north of 200k.
It's fascinating to watch and makes me think of selling my 8 but without a need for the funds I will just continue to watch the escalation.
I could have wrote that post myself. I too have a PSA 8. I don't want to sell because I always want to own a Jordan rookie. I considered selling during the Last Dance hype a few months ago.
As I am watching these prices I'm glad I didn't. However there has to be a leveling off point eventually and even a shift downward. Where is it? I have no idea. This past summer I have said on multiple occasions that I thought that PSA 8 examples would settle back down to the $4,000 to $5,000 range. For a few months before the holidays they had settled down around the $6,000 to $7,000 range. It stayed that way for a good while. The last three weeks they have exploded again. I am assuming it is because the PSA 10 shot up to $200,000. The people that were in the market for PSA 10 could no longer afford them and shifted to PSA 9 which made those explode to the $30,000 range. Now it's a domino effect on down. I too am seeing PSA 8 examples in the $12,000 to $16,000 range.
At some point I have got to consider selling and maybe downgrading to a PSA 7. I'm not all that picky on condition. A nice example of a PSA 7 would be perfectly fine for my collection. At this point I could probably sell my nicely centered PSA 8 for $15,000 and buy a PSA 7 for half the price and pocket the rest. My luck I would sell and PSA 8s would jump to $20,000. I just don't know what to do at this point.
That's right where I am, but I am not that committed to holding on to one. I have a complete set raw with the Jordan and Isiah cards graded in 8. On one hand, I cannot believe that this price escalation will continue, but on the other, I never would have believed even 6 months ago they'd be at this price now.
The 10 selling for 200k makes me think of the collectible Porsche market. 1960s Porsches got so expensive it made 70s and 80s elevate in price since the market priced the 1960s out of so many buyer's ranges.
I think that's what is happening here. What's the top? With 200k the price hitting so recently after 150k in early December, I think it's a runaway train with no one on the brakes.
I’ve seen this mentioned on Twitter. Specifically by Gary V. I for one can’t stand the guy for various reasons but,According to him and a bunch of others, people are now buying and stashing away Jordan rookies like people do with mantles. There’s not as many as there once was for sale
@Rofles said:
I’ve seen this mentioned on Twitter. Specifically by Gary V. I for one can’t stand the guy for various reasons but,According to him and a bunch of others, people are now buying and stashing away Jordan rookies like people do with mantles. There’s not as many as there once was for sale
Watch, if there is a National this year there will be thousands available for sale. Just like in previous years.
I understand the thinking though. The Jordan card is iconic, in the same class in popularity to Mantle, with a whole new generation that wants it. The Last Dance was significant, in terms of this generation getting to understand who Jordan was, and how he was a complete global figure. With basketball as popular as ever, money abundant as ever, people are getting in now in this insanity in the hopes of future gains.
I am a big believer in this card, however, at these price levels, it is tough to justify buying and holding. There are simply too many of these cards produced, and available at any grade and any time you wish to purchase.
Jordan's legacy is cemented, not certain how much more he can do that will continue to flame the fire on his cards. His eventual passing will be the next surge, and possibly final one for this card.
FWIW I sold my lone rookie this past summer for what I felt was top dollar (at that time). I don't regret it, I cashed in handsomely, and await an opportunity to reinvest the proceeds into whatever I see fit when the chance comes.
Enjoy the hobby, don't fret over every penny you make/lose on it!
@canyoubelieveit said:
It's not just Jordan that is jumping in value. Cards are doubling in value in mere weeks right now. I personally do not think this is rational. I made a spreadsheet in early Dec with target cards and what I wanted to spend based on fair market. Those estimates I put down now look woefully weak. Doubling in just weeks. In some case, even more.
I did a similar thing. I look back and just shake my head.. crazy!
@canyoubelieveit said:
It's not just Jordan that is jumping in value. Cards are doubling in value in mere weeks right now. I personally do not think this is rational. I made a spreadsheet in early Dec with target cards and what I wanted to spend based on fair market. Those estimates I put down now look woefully weak. Doubling in just weeks. In some case, even more.
I did a similar thing. I look back and just shake my head.. crazy!
Just think about the number of people who have been posting here starting with "I am just getting back into the hobby and...". Covid is making us do all sorts of crazy stuff.
I sold my PSA 10 (PWCC-A) in October for $125k. It sat with a BIN BO at $145k for a few weeks before I got the $125k offer. I thought I was selling at the peak of the market but since the card has almost doubled in price since then I was obviously wrong. I keep wonder where these people paying 200k+ were 2 months ago when my card was sitting with a $145k BIN.
Fortunately I still have 3 PSA 9s, 3 PSA 8s and a PSA 7.5 so I have some skin in the game w/r to Jordan RCs and their continued price appreciation but an extra 100k (before taxes) would have come in handy.
i had my signed psa 6 listed forever $35k. pulled it last week and then just sold yesterday for $65k privately thru a friend of a friend. i am very elated but also quite confused as to what's going on.
@fergie23 said:
I sold my PSA 10 (PWCC-A) in October for $125k. It sat with a BIN BO at $145k for a few weeks before I got the $125k offer. I thought I was selling at the peak of the market but since the card has almost doubled in price since then I was obviously wrong. I keep wonder where these people paying 200k+ were 2 months ago when my card was sitting with a $145k BIN.
Fortunately I still have 3 PSA 9s, 3 PSA 8s and a PSA 7.5 so I have some skin in the game w/r to Jordan RCs and their continued price appreciation but an extra 100k (before taxes) would have come in handy.
Robb
Has to be folks new to the hobby flush with cash. Sneaker head types. Maybe not. Not really sure. Certainly jot folks seasoned in the hobby. Who on this board is ramping up BUYING right now? Few of any. Selling is another matter!
I sold $186k worth of cards in Sept & Oct (and sent in the estimate taxes to prove it). That $186k in sales had a basis of $4,876.87 which is pretty crazy. Even if you subtract the Jordan 10, my returns were still preposterous. I ended up turning down strong offers for my PSA 9 Gretzky Topps RC, PSA 9 Gretzky OPC RC, and PSA 9 1986 Tyson UK RC the last month or it would have been $325k in sales. I got a little gun shy after the Jordan RCs went nuts (again) after my last sale.
I spent 6k more in 2020 (~56k total) than 2019 but have not bought any cards over $4k since COVID started. I think things are definitely overpriced but the trajectory for HOF or to-be HOF superstar RCs is ever upwards it seems. So even if you over pay now, as long as you are holding for 5-10 years you will more than likely be fine. Many of those buying group prices from 5-6 years ago would be a steal now.
I think where people will get burnt is with speculating on the next superstar. All the 2016 and later cards are priced crazily. You have to be absolutely sure about the players you buy (I think Mahomes, & Luka are sure things baring catastrophic injury, I also like Haaland but things could still go sideways with him).
A few people have mentioned Mantle in this thread and that made me check recent prices as I have both a 1952 Topps Mantle PSA 2 and a 1986 Fleer Jordan PSA 9 in my collection. The Mantle been the cornerstone of my collection and the most valuable for as long as I have had it. I find it hard to believe that the Jordan has surpassed my Mantle in terms of value. There was a sale of a PSA 2 that was documented on here that sold for 43k, but beyond that sales have been at 23-24k. On the flip side, the last two PSA 9 Jordans have sold for 28k and 33k. In terms of population, there are around 20,000 Jordans graded by PSA with 2759 of those being PSA 9s. Compare that with the Mantle that has 1718 total graded. I know that there are more prospective buyers for the Jordan than the Mantle, but that is just mind boggling.
@fergie23 said:
I sold $186k worth of cards in Sept & Oct (and sent in the estimate taxes to prove it). That $186k in sales had a basis of $4,876.87 which is pretty crazy. Even if you subtract the Jordan 10, my returns were still preposterous. I ended up turning down strong offers for my PSA 9 Gretzky Topps RC, PSA 9 Gretzky OPC RC, and PSA 9 1986 Tyson UK RC the last month or it would have been $325k in sales. I got a little gun shy after the Jordan RCs went nuts (again) after my last sale.
I spent 6k more in 2020 (~56k total) than 2019 but have not bought any cards over $4k since COVID started. I think things are definitely overpriced but the trajectory for HOF or to-be HOF superstar RCs is ever upwards it seems. So even if you over pay now, as long as you are holding for 5-10 years you will more than likely be fine. Many of those buying group prices from 5-6 years ago would be a steal now.
I think where people will get burnt is with speculating on the next superstar. All the 2016 and later cards are priced crazily. You have to be absolutely sure about the players you buy (I think Mahomes, & Luka are sure things baring catastrophic injury, I also like Haaland but things could still go sideways with him).
Robb
I think you’re very wise to take the profit from where are you had bought in at.
It’s always almost impossible to buy the very bottom or sell at the very top, so I think you have to be happy with the profit you got.
Gone are the days of the 86 fleer pack rips but you have the memories and I knew you were hot on your hits back then but wow with the current price increases those were even more phenomenal!
@maddux69 said:
A few people have mentioned Mantle in this thread and that made me check recent prices as I have both a 1952 Topps Mantle PSA 2 and a 1986 Fleer Jordan PSA 9 in my collection. The Mantle been the cornerstone of my collection and the most valuable for as long as I have had it. I find it hard to believe that the Jordan has surpassed my Mantle in terms of value. There was a sale of a PSA 2 that was documented on here that sold for 43k, but beyond that sales have been at 23-24k. On the flip side, the last two PSA 9 Jordans have sold for 28k and 33k. In terms of population, there are around 20,000 Jordans graded by PSA with 2759 of those being PSA 9s. Compare that with the Mantle that has 1718 total graded. I know that there are more prospective buyers for the Jordan than the Mantle, but that is just mind boggling.
Vintage hasn't caught up to the modern phenomenon, yet. Fewer realized prices.
Your vintage HOFers are still the Blue Chips.... rookies & high end. Slow and steady growth with the occasional big spike.
MJ is in a league of his own. Uncharted territory.
IMHO, 2021 will be huge for the vintage market
I love the fact that the market has shot up, I have taken some gains, but at what cost?
For the new stuff I can't even finds cards at Walmart, Target, etc... and I have seen photos of people waiting for when the shelves are stocked. Kinda gross! I miss ripping packs, boxes, etc..
Going to my LCS or ebay is the only outlet and everything is priced extremely high. I guess we can't have a happy medium.
Successful coin BST transactions with Gerard and segoja.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
Very few good deals out there. I agree vintage is possibly the only market that has not seen 5-10X increases. Signs recently with some blue chips, however cards like the 51 Bowman Mantle are still undervalued in this market and have not seen similar gains recently.
@maddux69 said:
A few people have mentioned Mantle in this thread and that made me check recent prices as I have both a 1952 Topps Mantle PSA 2 and a 1986 Fleer Jordan PSA 9 in my collection. The Mantle been the cornerstone of my collection and the most valuable for as long as I have had it. I find it hard to believe that the Jordan has surpassed my Mantle in terms of value. There was a sale of a PSA 2 that was documented on here that sold for 43k, but beyond that sales have been at 23-24k. On the flip side, the last two PSA 9 Jordans have sold for 28k and 33k. In terms of population, there are around 20,000 Jordans graded by PSA with 2759 of those being PSA 9s. Compare that with the Mantle that has 1718 total graded. I know that there are more prospective buyers for the Jordan than the Mantle, but that is just mind boggling.
Vintage hasn't caught up to the modern phenomenon, yet. Fewer realized prices.
Your vintage HOFers are still the Blue Chips.... rookies & high end. Slow and steady growth with the occasional big spike.
MJ is in a league of his own. Uncharted territory.
IMHO, 2021 will be huge for the vintage market
My gut tells me money is pouring into the hobby as a guard against coming inflation. With all the money printed this year and surely a lot more to come, investors are looking for safe havens. Gold is also trading at an all time high.
Collectibles is one such guard against inflation. Am I right? Only time will tell.
@gemint said:
My gut tells me money is pouring into the hobby as a guard against coming inflation. With all the money printed this year and surely a lot more to come, investors are looking for safe havens. Gold is also trading at an all time high.
Collectibles is one such guard against inflation. Am I right? Only time will tell.
I agree, but which collectibles? I just don't see how the modern stuff can continue to go up, up, up regardless of offerings, print runs, etc... it's like they are just printing money. On a side note are major card companies: Topps, Donruss/Paninni, UD, etc... publicly traded companies? If so I need to buy some stock.
Successful coin BST transactions with Gerard and segoja.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
rtimmer - I learned my lesson from the dot.com boom and bust. I was a paper millionaire many times over only to watch my stock options turn into nothing during the crash. Thankfully, I sold enough to buy my mother a small house ($125k) out in the woods with a view, otherwise I would have had nothing to show for it. While I lament selling the Jordan 10 a little too early, overall it was the right move. My card collection has boomed to over $1.5 million (which is so ridiculous I find it hard to believe) with the COVID bump in card prices.
Those 86 Fleer pack rips were epic. From 2009 - 2012 I pulled 9 Jordan RCs and opened a little over 40 loose packs. Seven of the Jordan packs came from BBCE and two from a guy that used to set up at the Chantilly, VA card show. I even made the mistake of opening a Jordan RC on top and Jordan sticker on bottom pack (I couldn't make out the Jordan on top when I decided to open the pack). I had the best mojo ever for pulling Jordan RCs.
@maddux69 said:
A few people have mentioned Mantle in this thread and that made me check recent prices as I have both a 1952 Topps Mantle PSA 2 and a 1986 Fleer Jordan PSA 9 in my collection. The Mantle been the cornerstone of my collection and the most valuable for as long as I have had it. I find it hard to believe that the Jordan has surpassed my Mantle in terms of value. There was a sale of a PSA 2 that was documented on here that sold for 43k, but beyond that sales have been at 23-24k. On the flip side, the last two PSA 9 Jordans have sold for 28k and 33k. In terms of population, there are around 20,000 Jordans graded by PSA with 2759 of those being PSA 9s. Compare that with the Mantle that has 1718 total graded. I know that there are more prospective buyers for the Jordan than the Mantle, but that is just mind boggling.
I think two things at work here: popularity and market. I am a fan of both sports but hands down the NBA has MLB beat in terms of fan engagement and popularity. No rational person could look at both sports today and suggest baseball is more popular than baseball. To prove it, look at how nationally irrelevant the best player in decades (Mike Trout) is, despite playing in the second biggest media market in the country, he is fundamentally anonymous.
Meanwhile, there are countless current NBA players who have a much higher profile than Trout. Hell, you would be hard-pressed to name a single current MLB player with the name- and face-recognition the top 10 NBA players have.
The Mantle market is US-based; Jordan is a worldwide icon and the NBA has a much larger global presence than MLB does.
While there are thousands of graded examples of Jordan's out there, I would suspect this upward trend to continue for some time.
@maddux69 said:
A few people have mentioned Mantle in this thread and that made me check recent prices as I have both a 1952 Topps Mantle PSA 2 and a 1986 Fleer Jordan PSA 9 in my collection. The Mantle been the cornerstone of my collection and the most valuable for as long as I have had it. I find it hard to believe that the Jordan has surpassed my Mantle in terms of value. There was a sale of a PSA 2 that was documented on here that sold for 43k, but beyond that sales have been at 23-24k. On the flip side, the last two PSA 9 Jordans have sold for 28k and 33k. In terms of population, there are around 20,000 Jordans graded by PSA with 2759 of those being PSA 9s. Compare that with the Mantle that has 1718 total graded. I know that there are more prospective buyers for the Jordan than the Mantle, but that is just mind boggling.
Vintage hasn't caught up to the modern phenomenon, yet. Fewer realized prices.
Your vintage HOFers are still the Blue Chips.... rookies & high end. Slow and steady growth with the occasional big spike.
MJ is in a league of his own. Uncharted territory.
IMHO, 2021 will be huge for the vintage market
What makes you think vintage will suddenly be huge for the vintage market? I just don't see it. The money coming into the market driving up these prices has little connection to vintage players. I suspect you're going to see the modern market see more of an influx of cash than vintage. I'd suspect the people driving up Jordan pricing are speculators. They have seen vintage prices stagnant for a long time - they want pops and that is modern.
@gemint said:
My gut tells me money is pouring into the hobby as a guard against coming inflation. With all the money printed this year and surely a lot more to come, investors are looking for safe havens. Gold is also trading at an all time high.
Collectibles is one such guard against inflation. Am I right? Only time will tell.
Inflation isn't coming. 1.4% last year despite trillions being printed in stimulus money and despite COVID, the overall economy remains strong. Tax increases incoming will generate billions in additional revenue, keeping inflation low.
Collectibles as a guard against inflation? The tax rate on gains from the sale of collectibles remains 28%, so using them as a guard against inflation is ill-fated.
What makes you think vintage will suddenly be huge for the vintage market? I just don't see it. The money coming into the market driving up these prices has little connection to vintage players. I suspect you're going to see the modern market see more of an influx of cash than vintage. I'd suspect the people driving up Jordan pricing are speculators. They have seen vintage prices stagnant for a long time - they want pops and that is modern.
-
Vintage prices are far from stagnant.
As a whole, my HOF baseball RC/1st card collection starting from the t206 series has annualized a 14% return.
I could give you countless 2x, 3x, 4x, and more return on my money.
I began acquiring in 2009 and continue til this day.
As I stated, your vintage rookies are your Blue Chips. Not your poor or barely average condition cards. Good & great quality are super low populations depending which year.
Dimaggio, Williams, Musial, Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Banks, Koufax, Clemente, Gibson, etc,....timeless treasures from baseball Americana.
Modern appears to be in a bubble, and that's only my opinion. Slow and steady wins the race.
2nd half of last year I noticed a big uptick in vintage activity.
January has been gangbusters so far. Baseball normally takes a break from Christmas til March. Revamps as spring training kicks off.
@Goldenage said:
Anyone been documenting the 86 Fleer wax increase over the past two years ?
2010 @ $12k per box
2012 @ $20k per box
2014 @ $30k per box
2016 @ $50k per box
2018 @ $65k per box
2019 @ $75k per box
2020 @ $100k per box
2021 @ $150k per box
Comments
Revisiting this thread because I was perusing eBay auctions.
Holy cow. Prices have literally doubled on 8s - they are regularly closing above 12k and one closed yesterday at 16k with multiple bidders above 15k.
PSA 10 at the end of December selling for north of 200k.
It's fascinating to watch and makes me think of selling my 8 but without a need for the funds I will just continue to watch the escalation.
I just checked the pop report. PSA 8 = 7715. That's a lot of "shares" @ $15,000 each
I can kinda understand the low pop PSA 10s. 317 @ $200K ea.
It's not just Jordan that is jumping in value. Cards are doubling in value in mere weeks right now. I personally do not think this is rational. I made a spreadsheet in early Dec with target cards and what I wanted to spend based on fair market. Those estimates I put down now look woefully weak. Doubling in just weeks. In some case, even more.
I could have wrote that post myself. I too have a PSA 8. I don't want to sell because I always want to own a Jordan rookie. I considered selling during the Last Dance hype a few months ago.
As I am watching these prices I'm glad I didn't. However there has to be a leveling off point eventually and even a shift downward. Where is it? I have no idea. This past summer I have said on multiple occasions that I thought that PSA 8 examples would settle back down to the $4,000 to $5,000 range. For a few months before the holidays they had settled down around the $6,000 to $7,000 range. It stayed that way for a good while. The last three weeks they have exploded again. I am assuming it is because the PSA 10 shot up to $200,000. The people that were in the market for PSA 10 could no longer afford them and shifted to PSA 9 which made those explode to the $30,000 range. Now it's a domino effect on down. I too am seeing PSA 8 examples in the $12,000 to $16,000 range.
At some point I have got to consider selling and maybe downgrading to a PSA 7. I'm not all that picky on condition. A nice example of a PSA 7 would be perfectly fine for my collection. At this point I could probably sell my nicely centered PSA 8 for $15,000 and buy a PSA 7 for half the price and pocket the rest. My luck I would sell and PSA 8s would jump to $20,000. I just don't know what to do at this point.
Shane
That's right where I am, but I am not that committed to holding on to one. I have a complete set raw with the Jordan and Isiah cards graded in 8. On one hand, I cannot believe that this price escalation will continue, but on the other, I never would have believed even 6 months ago they'd be at this price now.
The 10 selling for 200k makes me think of the collectible Porsche market. 1960s Porsches got so expensive it made 70s and 80s elevate in price since the market priced the 1960s out of so many buyer's ranges.
I think that's what is happening here. What's the top? With 200k the price hitting so recently after 150k in early December, I think it's a runaway train with no one on the brakes.
I’ve seen this mentioned on Twitter. Specifically by Gary V. I for one can’t stand the guy for various reasons but,According to him and a bunch of others, people are now buying and stashing away Jordan rookies like people do with mantles. There’s not as many as there once was for sale
Watch, if there is a National this year there will be thousands available for sale. Just like in previous years.
I understand the thinking though. The Jordan card is iconic, in the same class in popularity to Mantle, with a whole new generation that wants it. The Last Dance was significant, in terms of this generation getting to understand who Jordan was, and how he was a complete global figure. With basketball as popular as ever, money abundant as ever, people are getting in now in this insanity in the hopes of future gains.
I am a big believer in this card, however, at these price levels, it is tough to justify buying and holding. There are simply too many of these cards produced, and available at any grade and any time you wish to purchase.
Jordan's legacy is cemented, not certain how much more he can do that will continue to flame the fire on his cards. His eventual passing will be the next surge, and possibly final one for this card.
FWIW I sold my lone rookie this past summer for what I felt was top dollar (at that time). I don't regret it, I cashed in handsomely, and await an opportunity to reinvest the proceeds into whatever I see fit when the chance comes.
Enjoy the hobby, don't fret over every penny you make/lose on it!
I did a similar thing. I look back and just shake my head.. crazy!
Nic
Guides Authored - Graded Card Scanning Guide PDF | History of the PSA Label PDF
Just think about the number of people who have been posting here starting with "I am just getting back into the hobby and...". Covid is making us do all sorts of crazy stuff.
I sold my PSA 10 (PWCC-A) in October for $125k. It sat with a BIN BO at $145k for a few weeks before I got the $125k offer. I thought I was selling at the peak of the market but since the card has almost doubled in price since then I was obviously wrong. I keep wonder where these people paying 200k+ were 2 months ago when my card was sitting with a $145k BIN.
Fortunately I still have 3 PSA 9s, 3 PSA 8s and a PSA 7.5 so I have some skin in the game w/r to Jordan RCs and their continued price appreciation but an extra 100k (before taxes) would have come in handy.
Robb
i had my signed psa 6 listed forever $35k. pulled it last week and then just sold yesterday for $65k privately thru a friend of a friend. i am very elated but also quite confused as to what's going on.
Bitcoin currency or sports card currency? I like sports card currency...more aesthetically pleasing to the eye.
Has to be folks new to the hobby flush with cash. Sneaker head types. Maybe not. Not really sure. Certainly jot folks seasoned in the hobby. Who on this board is ramping up BUYING right now? Few of any. Selling is another matter!
HOF SIGNED FOOTBALL RCS
Very bullish on cards....
[
https://youtube.com/watch?v=ghZcbwy-3Vs]
I sold $186k worth of cards in Sept & Oct (and sent in the estimate taxes to prove it). That $186k in sales had a basis of $4,876.87 which is pretty crazy. Even if you subtract the Jordan 10, my returns were still preposterous. I ended up turning down strong offers for my PSA 9 Gretzky Topps RC, PSA 9 Gretzky OPC RC, and PSA 9 1986 Tyson UK RC the last month or it would have been $325k in sales. I got a little gun shy after the Jordan RCs went nuts (again) after my last sale.
I spent 6k more in 2020 (~56k total) than 2019 but have not bought any cards over $4k since COVID started. I think things are definitely overpriced but the trajectory for HOF or to-be HOF superstar RCs is ever upwards it seems. So even if you over pay now, as long as you are holding for 5-10 years you will more than likely be fine. Many of those buying group prices from 5-6 years ago would be a steal now.
I think where people will get burnt is with speculating on the next superstar. All the 2016 and later cards are priced crazily. You have to be absolutely sure about the players you buy (I think Mahomes, & Luka are sure things baring catastrophic injury, I also like Haaland but things could still go sideways with him).
Robb
Be careful you don't sell your PSA 8 and try to buy a PSA 7 only to find out that the PSA 7 is now going for 8 money. A downgrade, yet no profit.
A few people have mentioned Mantle in this thread and that made me check recent prices as I have both a 1952 Topps Mantle PSA 2 and a 1986 Fleer Jordan PSA 9 in my collection. The Mantle been the cornerstone of my collection and the most valuable for as long as I have had it. I find it hard to believe that the Jordan has surpassed my Mantle in terms of value. There was a sale of a PSA 2 that was documented on here that sold for 43k, but beyond that sales have been at 23-24k. On the flip side, the last two PSA 9 Jordans have sold for 28k and 33k. In terms of population, there are around 20,000 Jordans graded by PSA with 2759 of those being PSA 9s. Compare that with the Mantle that has 1718 total graded. I know that there are more prospective buyers for the Jordan than the Mantle, but that is just mind boggling.
eBay Store
Greg Maddux #1 Master SetGreg Maddux #2 Basic Set
new money
but is it stupid money? only time will tell
I think you’re very wise to take the profit from where are you had bought in at.
It’s always almost impossible to buy the very bottom or sell at the very top, so I think you have to be happy with the profit you got.
Gone are the days of the 86 fleer pack rips but you have the memories and I knew you were hot on your hits back then but wow with the current price increases those were even more phenomenal!
Join the Rookie stars on top PSA registry today:
1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
Thinking the 87 PSA 10 is gonna be next.....it’s well on it way.
Vintage hasn't caught up to the modern phenomenon, yet. Fewer realized prices.
Your vintage HOFers are still the Blue Chips.... rookies & high end. Slow and steady growth with the occasional big spike.
MJ is in a league of his own. Uncharted territory.
IMHO, 2021 will be huge for the vintage market
Tesla & Bitcoin boys jumping in head first with both feet.
I love the fact that the market has shot up, I have taken some gains, but at what cost?
For the new stuff I can't even finds cards at Walmart, Target, etc... and I have seen photos of people waiting for when the shelves are stocked. Kinda gross! I miss ripping packs, boxes, etc..
Going to my LCS or ebay is the only outlet and everything is priced extremely high. I guess we can't have a happy medium.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
Very few good deals out there. I agree vintage is possibly the only market that has not seen 5-10X increases. Signs recently with some blue chips, however cards like the 51 Bowman Mantle are still undervalued in this market and have not seen similar gains recently.
My gut tells me money is pouring into the hobby as a guard against coming inflation. With all the money printed this year and surely a lot more to come, investors are looking for safe havens. Gold is also trading at an all time high.
Collectibles is one such guard against inflation. Am I right? Only time will tell.
I agree, but which collectibles? I just don't see how the modern stuff can continue to go up, up, up regardless of offerings, print runs, etc... it's like they are just printing money. On a side note are major card companies: Topps, Donruss/Paninni, UD, etc... publicly traded companies? If so I need to buy some stock.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
rtimmer - I learned my lesson from the dot.com boom and bust. I was a paper millionaire many times over only to watch my stock options turn into nothing during the crash. Thankfully, I sold enough to buy my mother a small house ($125k) out in the woods with a view, otherwise I would have had nothing to show for it. While I lament selling the Jordan 10 a little too early, overall it was the right move. My card collection has boomed to over $1.5 million (which is so ridiculous I find it hard to believe) with the COVID bump in card prices.
Those 86 Fleer pack rips were epic. From 2009 - 2012 I pulled 9 Jordan RCs and opened a little over 40 loose packs. Seven of the Jordan packs came from BBCE and two from a guy that used to set up at the Chantilly, VA card show. I even made the mistake of opening a Jordan RC on top and Jordan sticker on bottom pack (I couldn't make out the Jordan on top when I decided to open the pack). I had the best mojo ever for pulling Jordan RCs.
Robb
I think two things at work here: popularity and market. I am a fan of both sports but hands down the NBA has MLB beat in terms of fan engagement and popularity. No rational person could look at both sports today and suggest baseball is more popular than baseball. To prove it, look at how nationally irrelevant the best player in decades (Mike Trout) is, despite playing in the second biggest media market in the country, he is fundamentally anonymous.
Meanwhile, there are countless current NBA players who have a much higher profile than Trout. Hell, you would be hard-pressed to name a single current MLB player with the name- and face-recognition the top 10 NBA players have.
The Mantle market is US-based; Jordan is a worldwide icon and the NBA has a much larger global presence than MLB does.
While there are thousands of graded examples of Jordan's out there, I would suspect this upward trend to continue for some time.
What makes you think vintage will suddenly be huge for the vintage market? I just don't see it. The money coming into the market driving up these prices has little connection to vintage players. I suspect you're going to see the modern market see more of an influx of cash than vintage. I'd suspect the people driving up Jordan pricing are speculators. They have seen vintage prices stagnant for a long time - they want pops and that is modern.
Inflation isn't coming. 1.4% last year despite trillions being printed in stimulus money and despite COVID, the overall economy remains strong. Tax increases incoming will generate billions in additional revenue, keeping inflation low.
Collectibles as a guard against inflation? The tax rate on gains from the sale of collectibles remains 28%, so using them as a guard against inflation is ill-fated.
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Vintage prices are far from stagnant.
As a whole, my HOF baseball RC/1st card collection starting from the t206 series has annualized a 14% return.
I could give you countless 2x, 3x, 4x, and more return on my money.
I began acquiring in 2009 and continue til this day.
As I stated, your vintage rookies are your Blue Chips. Not your poor or barely average condition cards. Good & great quality are super low populations depending which year.
Dimaggio, Williams, Musial, Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Banks, Koufax, Clemente, Gibson, etc,....timeless treasures from baseball Americana.
Modern appears to be in a bubble, and that's only my opinion. Slow and steady wins the race.
2nd half of last year I noticed a big uptick in vintage activity.
January has been gangbusters so far. Baseball normally takes a break from Christmas til March. Revamps as spring training kicks off.
Anyone been documenting the 86 Fleer wax increase over the past two years ?
2010 @ $12k per box
2012 @ $20k per box
2014 @ $30k per box
2016 @ $50k per box
2018 @ $65k per box
2019 @ $75k per box
2020 @ $100k per box
2021 @ $150k per box