An interesting video from a coin dealer ...
WingedLiberty1957
Posts: 2,990 ✭✭✭✭✭
WingedLiberty1957
Posts: 2,990 ✭✭✭✭✭
https://youtu.be/nOmSN6s292U
Comments
Have to go with the flow!
He thinks there's not as much consistency in grading
today.
That's a new thought........
This sort of leads into a thought I've had for a few years now. Would it be possible to use advanced computers and artificial intelligence to have a computer grade coins? It could rotate a coin at oblique angles and count the number of marks or hits, it could evaluate luster, it could search databases for natural color patterns like the sunnywood progression, etc. If nothing else it would be interesting info to add that info to a slab (that is, the grade the computer thought) along with the grade the grading team thought.
My Coin Blog
My Toned Lincoln Registry Set
By the way, do people think it's true that grading years ago was better or more consistent? Seems that way -- the way that Old Green Holders always seem to get a premium in the marketplace. Maybe it's hard to keep really talented staff in the grading positions at PCGS. It must be grueling work.
My Coin Blog
My Toned Lincoln Registry Set
This is nothing new.
Grading is subjective.......There will always be a margin of error.
Personally, I am satisfied with the big two TPGS.
The ONLY thing that I agree with him about is that people should spend more time learning how to grade better, THEMSELVES.
Then, I BELIEVE, that you can make more informed, educated and shrewd purchasing decisions....I've been saying this for many, many years.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
Shocking ... a dealer complaining about the grades he's receiving. Call CNN!
Dave
It wont get any better with the impending sale. This wont get fixed until they use computers to grade
"Give me my coins back Hal"
"Inspiration exists, but it has to find you working" Pablo Picasso
It will be so great when technology advances to the point where AI is able to take on every task, responsibility and decision that humans are required to make. Things will be so much better for humans. No stress, no strife, just freedom from all life's negatives. AI will never make a mistake. Humans will always agree with AI and with each other.
Niravna, Paradise and Enternal Happiness await us all.
For us coin collectors disagreements over a coin's grade will no longer exist because all hobby participants will agree with the grade assigned by AI.
The above stuff is brought to you by Rod Serling and The Twilight Zone
Or better yet, Project Veritas....
I find Ben to be open-minded overall when it comes to the TPG's. If one watches his videos on the regular, he has both benefited and been punished by the grading companies. He does receive a lot of questionable color designations but he recently cannibilized three 1956 proof sets and received one PF68 UC and two PF69 UC Franklin's back from NGC so he understands the process.
Computers will not resolve grading. AI (or whatever technology is developed) may assign a grade, kinda like coins graded by a TPG, but that does not mean that the coin will trade (or be valued) at that grade, kinda like coins graded by a TPG.
See http://www.doubledimes.com for a free online reference for US twenty-cent pieces
There is another coin dealer online who is involved with some early AI type concepts for coin grading and identifying called mintstate.com and I literally donated a few bucks to them early this morning! 100% True.
I have been playing with their online grading/identifying/pricing/collection apps...
No I am not involved... there is another coin dealer online who makes fantastically informative videos who is involved with and has been mentioning https://mintstate.com/ and that coin dealer runs the channel coinhelpu https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIYtW3byS0u7rBmXg71pXQw on youtube.
He also did an opinion video on the video above and has a wonderful thought about a 3rd party non-profit grading type entity...
From my personal experience which strangely crosses with AI in some ways, I think actual AI grading is a looong way off.
I personally think what may be closer is some sort of "initial" grading AI which can be used to save time with a final human grader, and would likely increase the accuracy I imagine.
Coins are Neato!
"If it's a penny for your thoughts and you put in your two cents worth, then someone...somewhere...is making a penny." - Steven Wright
This dealer has thoughtful vids, and a number of fun guess-the-grades when cracking from one service to another.
No they wont resolve it. Thats not the point. Eye appeal will determine a lot of the coins value which a computer cant really judge. It will at least leave eye appeal which is subjective out of the coins grade which is a problem we now have when coins get graded by factoring in subjective eye appeal . Basically it will eliminate market grading IMO where a coins grade is biased based on its perceived markets desirability
Fully agreed.
Both make great numismatically informative videos with their own style and angles!
Many other informative wonderful CoinTubers who like to advocate for the coin collecting community(s) have popped up this year as well :-) Ahem! HINT! Lol.
Also...on my channel I have gathered links to a couple hundred Coin related YouTube channels in my featured section (scroll down on my channel) to peruse! I try to update with new channels as they pop up too, click on the CoinTubers title and they will all pop up. I just enjoy sharing info and resources!
Coins are Neato!
"If it's a penny for your thoughts and you put in your two cents worth, then someone...somewhere...is making a penny." - Steven Wright
No system is perfect.
There will always be winners and losers.
Some collectors pine for the days when there was no grading services around but I think things are just fine right now....not perfect, but just fine.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
A thought provoking response from another dealer to the video in the OP ...
My Coin Blog
My Toned Lincoln Registry Set
Curse the darkness or light a candle?
If you don't like the grades, resubmit. The major TPG's are well accepted in the marketplace. Too much power? Thank goodness! No more BU, Gem BU, Gem BU++....
I don't know the purpose of the video.
Who is the dealer .... ?
I would like to watch more of his videos
He seems very likeable
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Old Pueblo Coin in Tucson AZ
https://oldpueblocoin.com/
The Coin Geek
I posted him and a link in my comment above...
It's Daniel on CoinHelpU YouTube Channel.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIYtW3byS0u7rBmXg71pXQw
He is nice, and VERY helpful :-)
Coins are Neato!
"If it's a penny for your thoughts and you put in your two cents worth, then someone...somewhere...is making a penny." - Steven Wright
When I send a coin to NGC or PCGS and am unhappy with the grade, I simply crack the coin out and either resubmit it or submit it to the other grading service. And I am not talking about getting an MS66 when I thought it would get MS67, rather I am talking about when I think the TPG just blew the grade completely. For example, I just got this Sac back from PCGS this week after cracking out of the NGC slab.
I view resubmissions as just another cost of doing business. I don't like that the subjectivity inherent in the grading process leads to some crazy grades, but I accept that it happens and deal with it.
Welcome to capitalism, dude. The strong tend to get stronger. As to inconsistency, that isn't a new issue. My biggest gripe is gradeflation, but that's not news either.
It'd be nice for the option to receive the grader's notes or reasoning for an assigned grade. I think it'd add more transparency to the grading process. The grading companies could monetize this as an additional service level. Seems like something they'd want to do if collectors would pay extra for it.
No worries. Every problem creates an opportunity.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I think NGC hit it on the head. It sure has a nasty looking rim with dings and is unattractive as whole for it to be a 67.
He has enjoyable, entertaining, vids on youtube. He sure seems to get alot of raw coins come back in holders with problems. I keep wondering how he makes a buisness as a dealer given his success rate being so poor. Fun vids nevertheless.
Best, SH
Huh? How are computers going to deal with luster and eye appeal? One computers 63 will be anothers 65 because of the lighting or some other issue that make it read these differently. Plus if you have actually read what the PCGS company sale is about, you would realize the 'impending sale' will have no bearing on how grading occurs..........
This is where I think the technology behind Coins in Motion made by @Senator32 could come in handy. Give the computer a video showing luster to help determine that. Eye appeal can be quantified with enough data as well.
"It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
Problem is, like people, the computer will also be subjective to some extent unless each one has the same software for grading and identical physical conditions. No grading room, no lighting, no monitor, etc. etc. is likely to be identical. So unless there is only one computer grading room in the world with one computer doing all of the worlds coin grading, no better than humans and in fact, inferior.
Best, SH
I'm not sure how. Some people like toning and some don't. How do you quantify that?
Yes, in this future AI controlled world of grading, each company will still grade coins differently, but grades should be consistent within each TPG as environmental factors affecting the quality of the data input can be almost entirely mitigated, which is my interpretation of the issues with the TPG's outlined in the video that kicked off this thread.
"It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
The market has already quantified it. The data is already there, it just needs to be put into an interpretable, impartial form for the AI. PCGS tracking auction prices attached to certs is a way this can be done, for example. Start the process of data collection today, and in ten years, you probably have an AI with enough data to be the worlds best grader.
Wanna know why CU got bought out, at least partially in my opinion? It's because they get this stuff and the investors see the potential to streamline, and use AI to drive profits. Imagine how much cash flow and profits could be improved for a TPG if they didn't have to pay humans $80k+ a year to grade.
The foundation is there to do just that.
"It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
I happen to have a degree in commercial photography... I can tell you that quantifying the grading experience for the AI is not the hard part at all. Lighting can be measured (lumens/temp) and everything about what the AI "sees" can be made to be exceptionally consistent without an issue, like sliding a coin under a microscope.
The issue is with the AI's interpretations of things.
I promise you that AI will quite quickly be able to recognize what humans tend to "like" with toning for example.
You'll be surprised I promise!
The big problem is the AI will often see things it's never seen before and sometimes will interpret things incorrectly...but this is not like developing AI to drive a car, this is more along the lines of facial recognition.
I'm sticking with my initial thought which is that once AI is pretty darn good with the coin recognitions and grading and some sort of eye-appeal judgements it will help sort thousands of coins a day to grade them more quickly and likely more accurately over-all. It will be more like checking people's work than making judgements and seeking group assessments which there is just no way there is a committee type decision happening on the grade of every coin.
I fully agree with the thought that PCGS and NGC might like it if they could offer another service for a few bucks where we could choose to see the reasons/rationale behind a "details" or "cleaned" decisions, etc... They could do it with a menu of items for graders to choose from so that graders don't have to write a small report just like they do with some other aspects of grading. But.... This could also put the grading companies in a strange position of trying to figure out a way to offer explanations without giving away industry/security secrets in regards to battling counterfeits.
Coins are Neato!
"If it's a penny for your thoughts and you put in your two cents worth, then someone...somewhere...is making a penny." - Steven Wright
How does tracking auction prices make you a good grader?
AI will be the future of grading, and I believe the major TPG's are already investing in the development of such software. Coins are made to standards... what happens afterwards (or sometimes during) are measurable variances. Identification and extent can be measured and specified. It will come, not sure when, but will hit the market with all the ensuing clamor and debate - and eventually accepted and demanded by the collecting community... even as TPG's and CAC traveled the same path. Cheers, RickO
Same old same old. And.....if and when AI takes over the grading process, it will be the.......same old same old. You can't please everyone.
Auction prices, in conjunction with high quality standardized videos of the coin can determine how much the market values the eye appeal of the coin at, thus quantifying what you suggested was unquantifiable.
It is all about putting numbers next to characteristics and adding up those numbers, when you really boil it down to the least common denominator.
"It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
I think I'm not getting my point through. My original reply to you was about how eye appeal impacts grading when it comes to computer grading and your response here appears to be about how eye appeal impacts pricing.
How do you define "grading" and what do you see its purpose being?
He rambled for 7 minutes about grading inconsistencies and had absolutely nothing new to say.
Yep Yep. And, there is a problem that people keep missing.
Neural Networks (the current rage in AI) are heavily dependent on the training set. If you want to train it to differentiate between a cat and a dog you show it dozens or hundreds of labeled photos. And it gets pretty good at that task.
Show it a horse and the results are less certain. There are also issues with differences in lighting, sharpness, etc.
But think about this - where are you going to get training sets for coin grading? You need dozens of images of each type of coin in each grade. Well lit and tagged accurately by a human.
25 grades, plus plus * 24 images = 600 images THAT EVERYONE AGREES ARE ACCURATELY GRADED.
Even if you restrict grading to just AU and MS, where do you get enough training images?
Once the NN is trained, you input a well lit image and the NN tells you what it likely is.
The other fun thing is you don't know what the NN has trained itself to spot as the difference. If all your training images are dogs sitting, looking directly at the camera and begging for a treat and all your training image cats are walking away with their tail's held high, maybe the NN decides nose=dog & tail=cat.
ANA 50 year/Life Member (now "Emeritus")
it never ceases
That’s my take on it, and I’ve been involved in software development and management for decades now. Still doesn’t have any impact on the vast, vast majority of coins which have never/will likely never see a TPG.
The grades need to be worked on
.
He is absolutely right - fewer people can actually grade coins now. This includes many dealers. I offered a nice raw 1916-D Mercury dime to dealers for XF-45 bid. No takers. I sent it to PCGS and it came back AU-50. I had no problem getting 50 ask money for it from the same dealers two weeks later. Inability to grade and no confidence in any ability they might have had.
I'll bet you'd have an easier time with a coin less frequently counterfeited. It seems more likely they were less confident in their ability to authenticate than to grade.
My thoughts exactly!
Computer: You coin grades MS-66
Owner: But I know it's better than that! It's at least a 67 or 67+! Can you give it a 67?
Computer: I cannot do that, Dave.
10-4,
My Instagram picturesErik
My registry sets