Will all Provenance be knowable some day to a certain point??
keets
Posts: 25,351 ✭✭✭✭✭
When I worked at the Coin Shop my co-worker had an app on her phone, she'd take a picture of a coin and it would immediately identify it for us. That saved me a lot of time looking through the Krause catalogues and I missed it when she left us. But the technology involved has me indulging an interesting idea.
As more old catalogues are digitized and technology advances, do you think we'll be able to locate coins further back in time to establish a more accurate Provenance?
This probably wouldn't be useful for common R-3 type coins but for rare items it might work nicely. Recently I purchased a medal that's listed as R-8 and I found information back to around 1986, then nothing. With the help of the idea I'm envisioning it might be possible to move back in time with a description from old catalogues or ideally an old image. Do you think this will ever come to pass??
Al H.
Comments
Theoretically it is possible. Is it likely? Probably not. There would have to be enough motivation and money involved to make it happen. Even then I think it would only be possible for a very small number of coins that have a very specific look and where the photography is reasonably consistent over the years.
What coins with the longest unbroken chain of provenance do we know of? Studying how those were established could help going forward with such technology.
Great transactions with oih82w8, JasonGaming, Moose1913.
Theoretically it is possible. Is it likely? Probably not.
for the two major auction venues, Stack's and Heritage, much of the work is already done. I believe Heritage has everything archived since the early 1990's and Stack's has their catalogues online which includes at least some of the Bowers/Merena auctions prior to the Stack's and Bowers merger. there is even a lot available for Goldberg Auctions but I'm not sure how far back they go. the forum members who were responsible for digitizing the Hibler-Kappen book "So Called Dollars" could attest to the work involved to give an idea of how daunting it would be to do.
I am an optimistic, forward thinker. I believe technology will enable us to digitize hard copy much easier in the future. the app could be done now and then all that's needed is the proper search words.
No as I just took a trip to the future and no one after the Common Core Math generation cares
There is a potential to maybe expand some info.
But it would hit a limit based on older photo quality and whether there was a photo at all in past listings.
"To Be Esteemed Be Useful" - 1792 Birch Cent --- "I personally think we developed language because of our deep need to complain." - Lily Tomlin
.
End Systemic Elitism - It Takes All of Us
ANA LM, LSCC, EAC, FUN
It depends how old the coin is and how far back you have in mind. Many or most of the most expensive US coins have sold publicly where there could be or is an auction catalogue with images for over a century. Further back than that I wouldn't expect it would be likely to trace it for more than a low proportion, particularly for specialization which either was a lot less important or wasn't a collecting format until more recently.
For non-US, many of the rarest coins especially from countries or series with limited collector bases seldom (if at all) sell publicly, usually because it wasn't worth much money in the past..
Seems like a lot of work for little payout. I vote, NO.
My collecting and research interests have been with Presidential Numismatic Artifacts (PNAs). I have several PNAs with provenance and others with pedigree. Instead of using a visual markers on the coin or medal along with a text description (previous owners or collection), I depend on official ownership documents.
First, there is a distinction between provenance and pedigree. Here are the definitions that I defined and use today. https://money.org/collector/drdarryl/blog/provenance-to-pedigree
Second, majority of PNAs I've encountered fall in the category of true first day of issue from a primary U.S. Government official (with a direct connection to the U.S. Mint) and gifted to a secondary U.S. Government official. For PNAs, the primary U.S. Government official with a direct connection to the U.S. Mint is the President of the United States. If you have documentation at this point, you are still not in the clear in having a properly documented full chain of ownership.
Third, I've been somewhat successful in purchasing PNAs from secondary U.S. Government officials or their heirs. This is were a letter of provenance is needed to establish legal ownership to the current owner. This is also where one may gather other support documentation of ownership.
Example 1: I do not own this PNA (it's 1964-P FDI Kennedy half dollar)
https://greatcollections.com/Coin/611606/1964-Kennedy-Silver-Half-Dollar-With-Presentation-Letter-on-White-House-Stationary-Signed-by-President-Lyndon-Johnson-Uncertified-in-Capital-Plastics-Display-Board
Example 2: I own this PNA (another 1964-P FDI Kennedy half dollar) with letter of provenance (making me the 3rd legal owner in which I can sell this coin and continue its full chain of legal ownership).
**Example 3: ** President Kennedy Appreciation Medal (struck by the US Mint). I redacted the original recipient's last name for privacy concerns.
I have always disliked using the word pedigree for coins, because its primary definition is for
biological ancestors, like a family tree, a horse or dog parentage, etc.
But I like having a term which is distinct from the chain of ownership.
How about appearance.
So when a coin appears in a plate photo, or in an auction catalog, it would be an appearance.
It's unrelated to a biological pedigree.
Nothing should be beyond the abilities of one with a cape.
as I noted in the OP, something like this wouldn't be helpful or really necessary for common items. with more scarce or rare coins, medals, etc. it wouldn't be necessary for a picture, though that would obviously be helpful. the proper search terms would work just fine and although that might not give certainty to a traceable sale it would at least give a place to look.
perhaps, and this is just a thought, more capes would move things forward at a faster pace, though not quite at the speed of a bullet.
This is clearly a project that someone with the necessary motivation can create. Coordination with the big auction houses & dealers to make sure no current provenances are lost would be a start.
Great transactions with oih82w8, JasonGaming, Moose1913.
It would take an advancement in AI / database technology.
I'd love this to be in a common, canonical format somewhere. As mentioned by @keets a lot of this information exists already. It just needs to be collected and presented in an easy to use and consume format
As @TurtleCat mentions, there needs to be motivation to do this. I think this needs to be a labour of love to start, like the original CoinFacts.com by Ron @BestGerman .
Probably an independent collaborative effort. I am interested in this information for the coins I collect and some others I did in the past. I'd contribute to this effort.
It's not of much interest to me for more than a low proportion of US, mostly some of the most prominent coins where the information is already known. It's of no interest to me for coinage from parts of the world that I know I will never collect or even investigate.
This work is already started. You may want to check out the Numismatic Database at https://numiis.com/knowledge/rare-coins/
They are incorporating AI into developing a database for a Coins worth and to house info on coins.
As has been said there has to be demand for something like that.
Older auction catalog pictures are not reliably identifiable from a technology standpoint, even with AI down the road.
Bottom line for me, the great old time collection provenance of historically significant coinage is worthy of notation.
This happens all the time.
Collector A sells coin to dealer B, Dealer B sells coin to collector C, Collector C sells coin to Dealer D, Dealer B buys coin from Dealer D and sells to collector E.
I do not want nor need all that information as so many coins have had so many owners.
I collect coins, not names.
Okay okay, you got me, I collect coins and names. I'd love to know all the coins that have the EOC provenance! You have a great eye and awesome coins. I bet others would love a way to track your provenance as well.
This
“We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”
Todd - BHNC #242
I love going back through auction records and trying to track down coins through past catalogues. It’s fun when you can track a coin from raw, to NGC, to PCGS, and even track it through various upgrades or crackouts.
I’m working on a set of proof seated quarters and my goal is to have a coin from each of the major historical collections in this set. Eliasberg, Garrett, Newman, Gardner, Atwater, Hansen, McClure, Simpson, Benson, etc. I think it would be neat to have a piece from all of these great collections pulled together into one set. The quality of the coin is first and foremost, but all of these great collections were comprised of some of the best of the best and I like the idea have having all of that collective numismatic heritage pulled together. I think pedigree does count for something.
Lol, someone can start up an Etherium blockchain for all coin sales. That will solve the problem!
The Mysterious Egyptian Magic Coin
Coins in Movies
Coins on Television
I collect coins, not names.
I think you're reading comprehension and reasoning are good enough to realize we aren't talking about coins that trade as you described.
The thing about @ErrorsOnCoins is that I don't think his coins necessarily have a notable provenance before him. I bet he's the first name note for many.
below is an interesting post from another thread --- https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1032833/unique-lesher-dollar-from-bill-hendersons-collection-to-be-auctioned#latest --- which highlights the genesis of my thread idea. it concerns the known history of a unique Lesher Dollar.
@CaptHenway said:
» show previous quotes
Part of it was whether Richard S. Yeoman or Ken Bressett liked them way back when. A classic example is the 1837 Half Cent token. By being put in the regular Half Cent section, rather than with the other Hard Times Tokens in the back, the demand for it is far greater than if it were not in the book at all.
I thank Dick & Ken often as 1837 half cent tokens have been very very good to me over the years.
I would have to check my records to be 100% sure of the number (I'm 98% sure now) but I "discovered" the #18 - J.E. Nelson & Co. - Holdredge, Neb. Lesher Dollar ( now PCGS F-12) about 30-35 years ago at a tiny coin & antique show in the Midwest (that # had not been reported at the time). I sold the piece (not my best move) to a close dealer friend who had a good home for it with a serious collector of the series. From there the history of the piece includes theft (a low point), the U.S. Olympic team, a long period of silence, an auction, complicated removal from an auction (good thing I kept old invoices), private adjudication, recovery, reunification, slabbing (another low point IMHO) and an eventual completed auction for a few dollars more than my initial sale. I can't provide all the details of the story as the story is not all mine to tell but the piece itself is one of the many memorable pieces I've had the privilege of handling over the years.
Provenance is knowable and some sales records exist.
A lot of information does exist. I requires some effort to collect all that information in an easily usable way.
CDN and others already centralize data from the auction houses. Auction companies benefit in many ways from operating with this transparency.
The story for retailers is different. Rare coin clients tend toward privacy and their dealers aren't going to give up sales data without strong incentives.
There is an AI-based search tool available for tracking ancient coin pedigrees which works fairly well, although it still misses obvious matches.
They've scanned tens of thousands of catalogs, building a database of 1M+ coins to be able to match coins. Here are a couple pedigrees it's found for me on coins which were otherwise fully unpedigreed. This would be more challenging to do for US coins as the strike differences aren't as obvious but the technology is getting there:
That’s some pretty cool AI!!!!
Edward Julio...thanks for the shout out. I appreciate having worked with you in the past.
I'm currently working on a visual Census of the top ten examples of every U.S. coin, including Colonials, Regular Issues, Proofs, Die Varieties, Patterns, Territorial, etc. All the "facial recognition" is done manually, but I can generally analyze an auction sale to identify and match up the Census level coins in a couple of hours. Sales like the just-completed Simpson sale take a day or two because many of the coins are either fresh to the market or haven't been seen in awhile. The Simpson sale was even more difficult because after the initial analysis, Heritage updated the grades (and CAC stickers).
Nonetheless, this is entirely doable (and is being done) proposal. As the Census grows to include more and more images, it becomes vastly more efficient.
Doing this with all U.S. coins would be impossible without a large team and vast resources. Nor would it be worth the effort for lower value coins.
Why do this? First, it's fun to make the connections and build the provenance chains; and two, I sell it as a service.
Ron Guth, Chief Investigator
The Numismatic Detective Agency
he past.
.
.
Ron,
I certainly like the top ten (condition census) for each coin. From a provenance reverence standpoint, I think after top 10 it is not as important. Ron, will you be making this Pedigree and History report public? Once completed, it would be nice if PCGS was to purchase it and update CoinFacts. Lots of gaps and miss information. In the future, I could foresee a new discovery that breaks into the top ten would be a big find. Very neat concept.
My 20th Century Gold Major Design Type Set ---started : 11/17/1997 ---- completed : 1/21/2004