PCGS Market Report Article on Classic Commems
Cougar1978
Posts: 8,782 ✭✭✭✭✭
Got my Sep / Oct issue of the market report other day. While I know the Classic Commem Area depressed / under appreciated there was a table comparing now to 1989 (before crash I think) for various issues. Execellent article by Michael Garofalo. The point was Classic Commems now 10-20 cents on dollar vs 89. A point he drove home is original mintages have not changed.
A nice one I had started (dup) Lustrous MS65 on the bay at 9.95 realized $90 vs CDN bid of $100 / CPG $135. In a way sick gave it away at that but they just not paying the money (retail) on these for most part. Had not been move at MV for sometime, and these a really super deal vs 89.
Getting retail on these hit or miss no easy pin down reason. I think a lot of players broke. Here in Houston many filed bankruptcy / cc default due to 2015 oil price crash, forced early retirement. Friend in coin club says “when payoff cc lawsuit this May 40c on dollar settlement from lawsuit in few months will be buying some.” Of course the fallout from Covid will be an additional factor for sometime on disposable income.
What I like to do on these (a particular issue) is look at my PCGS Mkt report on the pop column for total graded. Would not take very large influx of new investor blood move prices up. I believe like gravity these will rebound at some point in time.
It’s motivated me start another box of 20 of these, seems like super buying opportunity. Oregon Trail among my fav - a set would be a doable goal for many.
Comments
This series has been dead for thirty years. What can revive interest in it? Why would anyone "invest" in something with a poor track record in a hobby that is slowly declining? (OK, I know that there are tens of thousands of young internet-only collectors just waiting to scoop them up. They are out there, aren't they?
Why not run student body left off the left hash (I formation - TE on left as blocker along w LT with QB, HB, FB trailing make play)? Especially if defenders focused on other side of field and just 2 of them on left to beat.
The prices in 89 were unrealistic and unsustainable due to hoarding and hyping by some dealers. Without the continued hype, there's no way to sustain those prices. I haven't read the article but I wonder if that was mentioned.
The issue with mintages / survivors not changing since 89 is that number of collectors have been going down. In addition to the lack of hype, in economic terms, supply has remained constant but demand has and likely will continue to decrease. This is absent COVID. Now that everyone is at home, perhaps there s a way to promote these to new collectors?
I think if they were promoted again at the new low prices, that could drive more interest. If they're promoted by people trying to jack them up again...not so much. There are still a lot of people trying to hang on and recoup some of their losses and that inhibits a real restart. I remember 10 years or so ago at a Baltimore show I saw 100+ MS65 Isabellas on the floor, and all trying to get top $...that certainly doesn't help anyone.
Those coins are not rare. Why would anyone invest in them? For years, Anthony Swiatek (an expert on commemoratives) has said only to 'buy them if you like them,' making it clear that he does not view them as good investments.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
From my observation of prices in the last couple of months, It seems that commens are going up. Especially the Stone Mt.
I think they have reached rock bottom if not on rebound and affordable to a wide range of buyers. Certain issues have higher interest than others.
The civil war, 4 California issues , ship coins, Texas, Oregon Trail issues seem to always have high demand / interest.
I dont follow classic commems but i have read how they are down for the last 20 years. Maybe they arent down but are where they are suppose to be
Generic white MS coins are a dime a dozen. Top grade, colorful examples with stickers still bring nice prices.
Even though they’re different in many ways, modern commem issues aren’t helping things.
Scan from the magazine.
Relatively speaking, but they are still expensive compared to other classic coins like MS Morgans. There’s always so many white MS coins available that I get the feeling they are still priced over the market.
I don’t really compare them but I’m actually more likely to have a modern than a classic. That’s mostly because I can get toned pieces in the hundreds vs. thousands for classics. I’ve bid on classic toners but they go for more than I’d like on a whim. It’s quite a commitment to not just get one but build a collection.
The problem is not with classic commemoratives. The problem is with the market mechanics of the day.
In 1989 sight-unseen trading would push up values of the more thinly traded grades. Dealers would buy a stake in a commem and then push bids up to buy more at a higher number, thereby increasing the value of the coins in their inventory. A less cynical explanation: A buyer might see an undervalued coin and try and capitalize on it by putting out higher bids. Greysheet would report the new bids and the market would follow. The price increase was tempered by additional coins being sold to the high bid, at least that was the theory.
Nowadays. the market is gleaned from auctions, not sight-unseen bidding. The lowest auction price is typically used as the "market" price today. Greysheet will report this now. This creates a downward spiral as people use the latest auction data to formulate their buy prices. In a market systemically front-loaded to fall, you figure your buy price well in back of the market.
Both systems are flawed. Throw in overgraded coins, and it becomes chaos.
Regardless of where they’re “supposed to be”, they’re most assuredly, down.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
This sounds like general market mechanics, but wouldn't this have affected other coins? Did this affect other items?
Proof type, Post-1934 silver, Morgan and Peace dollars. Anything that has large populations and the market is predominantly grade = price.
That's interesting because I mostly hear about market woes about classic commems and not those other coins. Have they fared better or are they just not discussed in the same way?
Dealer hype drove pricing in ‘89, TPG’s information about populations and actual sales drive the market now.
The problem generally with classic commems is simply they are manufactured collectibles, available in quantity in outstanding MS condition.
I can see the monster toners bringing considerable premium, but the rest were over promoted and as such are not compelling investments short or long term.
There are a few exceptions and they are Interesting to study, but most are not historically significant or rare.
I see the problem with commems as lack of normal attrition suffered by coinage minted for circulation.
Let me start by saying, I didn’t read the Article. I just saw the screenshot above (that Goldbully posted) of the list of all the coins that dropped 80%-90% and the picture at the bottom of the page of a coin that sold at auction (16) years ago for $69,000.00. That particular 1926 Oregon that sold for $69,000.00 has a Price Guide value of $700.00 today in the grade the coin sold for at Superior in 2004! So, did that coin drop 99%+ in value?
And therein lies the “problem” with this series IMHO. It is the “white” coins and average toned coins that are falling 80%+ in price. These ARE common in nearly all grades. And, many connoisseurs of this amazing series will not want them if they fall 98%! The connoisseurs want THAT 1926 OREGON that likely hasn’t lost $1 in the past 16 years and arguably is worth substantially more now than the “insane” $69,000.00 price that coin fetched back in 2004 for an MS67 grade coin.
If memory serves me right, a connoisseur (dealer) by the name of Mike Defalco (RIP) wanted that coin at nearly any price as it was one of the (if not THE) most beautiful Commems he had ever seen in his career. But, a world class upgrader (and connoisseur of toning) wanted it even more. And, hence, the “insane” $69,000.00 price realized at auction for an PCGS MS67 grade specimen at that time. And, a cornerstone in the J&L collection today- one of the most spectacular toned coins in that collection without a doubt.
So, for me personally, I don’t care if the typical coins in this series have fallen 80%, 90% or if they end up falling 98% (I might start to care at 99% LOL). And, I “preach” this to the owner of the fantastic “Subway Tokens” Commem set almost daily- continue to step up for beautiful coins in this series. Don’t chase down the “blah” coins because they appear to be a bargain. I care about finding specimens like that 1926 Oregon for a world class Commem set- even if they have risen in price during the same time period. Often times, they have risen for good reason!
As always, Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
I've been working on a Texas set for a few years now and am really enjoying it, in addition to my usual Mercury dime sets.
Wayne
www.waynedriskillminiatures.com
In 1989, if you wanted to collect a U.S. coin series that had different designs, you had a handful of modern commems, 3 bicentennial coins, and the 50-piece classic commem set. That was it.
Now, the choices have grown enormously. Platium eagles, state quarters, ATB quarters, First Spouse Gold, Prez $, Innovation $, westward nickels, all of the commems (1990-Now). There is just so much more "competition" in that category now - at all price levels.
It almost seems like every new commem released hurts the price/market of every commem that came before it.
It still comes down to supply exceeding demand. Just the PCGS MS65/65+ certified pops (both Pilgrims) of the issues listed above are: 528, 1,620, 1,857, 192, 329, 549, 584, 2,053, 2,136. Add in 63, 64, 66, etc., and commemoratives are exceedingly common. Would you pay $1,100+ for a gem Isabella, $1,600+ for a Pan-Pac?
There are a couple of commemoratives I would pick up at the right price.... The right price has not yet appeared.
I will continue to wait and watch... I have the patience of the proverbial saint....(lower, lower, lower... 
) Cheers, RickO
There is just 1 commemorative type that I covet, and in the 25 years I have coveted getting an example they have gone steadily up in price. Anyone want to guess which one it is?
@DennisH
A 5 oz gold PanPac perhaps? If there was a raffle for one of those, I might buy a ticket or two myself.
They seem like a good opportunity for the telemarketers. Maybe for my retirement job.
That's the one! Octagonal to be precise.
2.5 oz actually.
2.41875 oz of gold if you want to get technical about it.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
I guess I was subliminally including the total weight - one round, one octagonal...... as long as we’re wishing, right?
I think when the US mint continues to create new commemoratives and commemorative series, it might be hurting the stock of all commemoratives. There are more and more commemoratives to collect every day, and any particular one may struggle to garner attention.
In universal terms, classic commemoratives are still expensive to collect.
IG: DeCourcyCoinsEbay: neilrobertson
"Numismatic categorizations, if left unconstrained, will increase spontaneously over time." -me
Actually, it was the modern commems that got me into the classics, and not because of a perceived need to expand the commems I had into the classics. It was because the modern designs were mostly awful that I decided to turn my back on them and collect the classics instead, which by contrast have some of the most stunning designs of all US coinage. I followed Swiatek's advice and collected them because I liked them. Perhaps a comparison of the artistry of new and old might be what turns people toward them. The latest commemorative dollar pinched off produced by the mint will set you back $70, and many people will buy it while on auto-pilot. Several classics can be had for $70, and many more can be had for under twice that right now, and allow the buyer to enjoy better artwork while selecting something because they like it and the quality of the coin is good, not because the mint says it's time to buy something.
Keeper of the VAM Catalog • Professional Coin Imaging • Prime Number Set • World Coins in Early America • British Trade Dollars • Variety Attribution
Hawaii or $50 Pan Pac.
Laughing here!!
Yes indeed. If one is going to dream, then dream big!
Your opinion is similar to mine.
I don't believe that this series is necessarily competing against US modern commemoratives (per another post) but I do infer it's been noticeably displaced by world NCLT. (I have the same opinion of other 20th century US classic series where I mostly read the prices have been declining for over a decade.) Better looking crown sized coins often with similar mintages or at least availability and often at similar prices.
Another reason I believe this series has lost value is because US collectors (no one else is buying it) don't find most of the designs that attractive and the historic events interesting. Only a few (like Hawaii) and these coins still have strong though apparently lower prices.
(Somewhat) older US collectors (like me) have a higher perception of these coins than US modern commemoratives but looked at impartially, many of the events weren't worth commemorating either. Substantially local or regional events with little appeal elsewhere.
Other than for temporary speculation, what reason is there to believe the preference will increase? Contrary to the OP, there is more reason to believe it will continue to decline as new NCLT in a similar price range is issued and the country's demographic composition changes where even fewer future collectors have any interest in the events.
Certainly the availability to collectors of coins thought to be scarce as well as the amount of information available has had a profound affect on prices. Years ago, average collectors had few sources to work with and little by way of good price or population data. I can remember as a kid relying on my local B&M and the Redbook. Coins I rarely if ever had access to I can now buy by the dozen in no time on eBay using Paypal. This has affected other traditional collectibles as well. Add to all that I believe that younger generations today generally have less interest in the same material things that my generation (early boomer) and previous generations valued. My kids don't really want grandma's silver or fine china. Not to say that some future generation(s) won't develop a taste for these things. Stamps may even come back (not going to hold my breath).
It reminds me of when French 20 Franc Gold coins (.1867 AGW) cost about what 2 people would go out to dinner and NGE would ship me as many as I wanted for $3 or $4 over melt. I recall one guy (another firm) calling me “I can sell you thousands of them.” Those good ole days are gone.
Many classic Commems in the sheet in MS65 bid at $100 - $300 depending on the issue. I think they are a real bargain....
There are multitudes of 'blah' commems on the market-even if correctly graded and 'stickered, that few are interested unless, perhaps at give away prices. I have picked up a few over the past few years, and find that really attractive pieces whether beautifully toned or 'white' are a lot harder to come by, and prices realized for these reflect it.
"A graph is worth 1000 words...."
from
https://www.pcgs.com/prices/coin-index/silver-and-gold-commemorative
That chart indicates to me that there were some very successful dealers.
Another dealer once told me the same thing about South Africa ZAR gold which could be bought at similar premiums in the 1980's (during the sanctions), though these were probably circulated as opposed to "gem" for these French coins.
As for commemoratives, bargain compared to what else?
Just about everything. Do some research / analyze relative pops vs MV.
What mainly gets me is many of these under $300 which one could easily spend on a sports or entertainment venue. Look what $10,000 would buy in these MS64-66 vs some big ticket coin...possibly marketed up into stratosphere who knows submitted how many times (crackout game).
The graph mirrors 72-89 nowhere to go but up. A highly successful dealer I know was dealing coins in college, graduated with business degree in 1972 then went into coin business. Timing makes a big difference. Since 89 many dumped coins put that money in stock market.
Btw spent my eBay $25 / 25 yr on 40 kurig k cup bold coffee sampler pack that was $26.99 so only paid $1.99 for all 40.
WTB beautifully toned bay bridge under 1K. Do they exist?
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
Going back to Rick's post, if the market dynamics in 1989 affected Proof type, Post-1934 silver, Morgan and Peace dollars, why is it that classic commems get talked about the most? There doesn't seem to be nearly as many posts on these other coins not being able to maintain their price.
What you are describing is that collectors just don't like the coins as much as you do or think they should. There is no knowledge gap where US collectors don't know it exists or don't have access to reference material. There are also no practical supply constraints keeping anyone from buying it.
Classic commemoratives are cheap versus a series such as Morgan dollars but this doesn't have any relevance to the future financial potential. There is another active thread asking for opinions on the top three 20th century US series. Of pre-1965 US coinage, measured by how collectors spend their money, I'd rank it ahead of only: silver FDR dime, silver Washington quarter and maybe the Franklin half.
The price trend indicates most collectors don't find the designs or events interesting. I don't know how many collect it but suspect most only buy the most preferred issues they can afford and ignore the rest. The series is a lot cheaper than previously but both the short and extended sets still require outlays most collectors consider material, especially when many better coins can be bought for the same money either individually or as a series.
Your comment on spending $300 on entertainment isn't likely relevant either, as it's unlikely most who buy any attend either; only very infrequently if at all. Bigger budget collectors may (more) regularly do this but then, almost none are buying this series anyway. They are buying coins with a much higher preference.
I have been reading that this series is "under appreciated" for over 20 years. Well, it's preference is likely to decrease due to 1) internet; 2) new world NCLT; 3) US demographic trends. This is even if the collector base doesn't decrease.
So sad - The US coin market hasnt kept up with bitcoin. Yes there needs to be a renewed interest in coins I dont know how this is going to happen if there are fewer new collectors and people handing down their collections to the younger generation dont bother to explain why one coin is valuable and another is not.
My guess is, that on a percentage basis and as a group, silver commemoratives are trading further off their highs than any of the other categories you mentioned.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I prefer white Commems. I see too many toners that kind of hide the detail and design of the coin.
I generally prefer brilliant, lustrous coins. I have owned some nice say lite gold toners. Most of certain issues like 1893 Columbian I have handled were toners and many very attractive. I avoid darkly toned coins or spotted pieces. Many instances these slow moving.
Certain issues like an Oregon which is lustrous with a hint of Exquisite lite gold near the rims moved quickly. Many Texas issues have super or satiny lusters very popular and move quickly. Always on the hunt for a nice Bay Bridge in 64-66. Many of this issue come frosty white or sort of satiny. Very popular bc of design plus a California issue. I evaluate grade of this coin mainly by obverse. MS66 of this issue at 10 pct of 89 high. Super acquisition in my view. Pcgs Pop of 6787 in all grades $300 per Pcgs (1936 MS66 Bay Bridge) super pickup vs 1883-CC MS 65 Dollar $400 per Pcgs - 50,328 pop in all grades.
Depends on the issue for me. Some look right toned, some don't. I like the look of a toned Pilgrim
but a Texas looks great flashy
Keeper of the VAM Catalog • Professional Coin Imaging • Prime Number Set • World Coins in Early America • British Trade Dollars • Variety Attribution