Why is there a price difference between...?
cameonut2011
Posts: 10,181 ✭✭✭✭✭
Why is there a price difference between PCGS and NGC CACed coins given CAC's market dominance? I can see the logic for registry coins (maybe), but what about everything else? CAC theorized that CAC would be the plastic equalizer, but this is clearly not the case. CAC has arguably increased the price spread. This is a serious question. No trolling please...
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That may be CAC's theory, but that may not be the consumer's theory.
People may still value the TPG opinion.
POOF! At least you didn't put CAC in the title! 😉
If you could be 100% sure of a straight cross with a beaned NGC coin, AND the coin re-beaning in the new PCGS holder, I'd expect the price to be the same.
(minus submission fees + shipping to PCGS & shipping + $3 sticker fees to CAC)
As it is, some don't cross and some that do cross don't always get a bean again.
Another thing....My assumption with a whole number bean is I could possibly get an easy +
Straight crosses don't usually get a +
It takes 3 more trips to get a + & a bean (NJ re-bean>>>>CA for + >>>>NJ re-bean again)
My Saint Set
Even with a sure cross I wouldn't expect price equalization anytime soon.
Imagine an expensive auction where Person 1 knows the coins are equal and would cross then re-bean. Person 2 doesn't know this, or doesn't believe it, or simply doesn't want to do the work. Even if Person 1 believes the coins should be worth the same, they will pay only as much as they have to.
An object (in this case a coin) is worth only what a buyer (with cash) will pay....Some pay more for beans, some will not.... Some pay more for a specific TPG, some will not. The variables reside in the purchaser's criteria - and wallet. Cheers, RickO
Likely because there is a price difference without the bean. Bean does not equalize, it gives added value.
If you understand what is coming, then you can duck. If not, then you get sucker-punched. - Martin Armstrong
I’m guessing that for those who value and require a bean that they don’t want to take on the risk and hassle of crossing.
"She comes out of the sun in a silk dress,
running like a water color in the rain...."
Pricing of many luxury goods is based on perception more than reality. People will pay a different amount in this situation because they perceive enough difference to warrant it. And, it is usually an irrational decision or based on incomplete information.
Because people tend not to be logical beings. I say enjoy the discount if that's what you're into.
Collector, occasional seller
Sell the sizzle!
Simple there are buyers in the coin market that must have brand X and will shun brand Y, so sellers know this and price brand X higher because those must have buyers will pay more. This creates the illusion that brand X is better because as we all know if something costs more it must be better. Its mostly marketing and hype which some brands are better at then others, and then add in the buyers who justify paying the higher price because they certainly do not want to think that they have over payed by also promoting brand X. This covers 75% or more of why there is a price gap in the market, sellers charge what the market will pay.
Some of the rest of the gap is from the registry and more specifically who is and who is not in each registry. People are attracted to and want to emulate and/or own items of those they idolize, the way people are willing to pay over market for a coin owned by a famous collector. So many people are drawn to brand X because of the people involved in the registry.
The last component (as I view it) is that the greater market wants to pay as little as possible so once a gap emerged many people both collectors and dealers want to exploit that gap each for their own reasons. @TurtleCat noted that some markets are based on perception over reality, I very much agree.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
The simple economic answer is that there isn’t perfect consistency between the grading companies and CAC. In theory, the price difference between an NGC-CAC coin and a PCGS-CAC coin should precisely indicate the chance that it won’t cross (ignoring the cost of crossing). If all CAC coins were guaranteed to cross and resticker, the premium would not exist (as it could be arbitraged away).
Or sometimes as a whole brand x does a better job than brand y and the price difference is justified in most cases
Its funny that people will go to elaborate lengths to dismiss away why pcgs cac coins sell for the most. This has been going on for awhile---its not a fad. If it were irrational it would not last.
The overlooked answer is right in front of you. a pcgs cac coin gets it right more than a ngc coin and a bit more than a ngc cac coin. This means the grading is right, problems are avoided, etc. Sure there are exceptions but the premium is based on the large majority and in the opinion of many (and apparently the market) pcgs cac coins getting right is the rule and not the exception.
" If it were irrational it would not last."
Honestly? I would not bet money on this. Many beliefs, quite irrational, have persisted for thousands of years.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
True but generally not when money is involved.
Au contraire. Money is frequently involved (or something else of value, like land, food, one's labor). One could make a good case for the entire grading system(s), in effect since Sheldon, being irrational (much of it, in practice, amounts to beauty in the eye of the beholder). Slabs, and people's perceptions of them, make coin transactions easier because there tends to be less haggling than when a raw coin is involved.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
The coins I like and am searching for are not readily attainable so if it has a CAC sticker and if it meets my eye appeal and other criteria then I snatch it up. I don't care if it's in PCGS or NGC slabs. I want it stickered though because, at the moment, those coins have the most liquidity and resale value.
If the coin is in an old fatty holder then I don't think there is any price difference between NGC and PCGS.
I can understand why some people dont want their NGC non cac coins to be worth less than a pcgs cac coin----they have a vested interest in it (by the way they may be worth less but i bet they bought them for less).
Im not sure why we almost have talk of a conspiracy when the simple reason is more collectors seem to appreciate the pcgs product more and therefore generally pay more. And some appreciate the expertise of JA and CAC and will pay more for his approval.
If you truely think the majority of ngc coins are just as good as the pcgs coins---crack them out and cross them and you will make very good money. And then use your trained eye and get a cac sticker and you can laugh all the way to the bank
Certainly possible but also exactly the justification that a buyer of brand X only would use. Thank you for providing an example for us. It is very easy and convenient to state something is better, especially when you don't provide any facts to prove your statement.
That is one possibility, but as you say the premium is based on opinion not on empirical data. And opinions are highly unreliable and easily susceptible to manipulation. Since you state you have the answer do you have the empirical data to support your theory?
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
The empirical data is the price the market commands for pcgs vs ngc. Those are objective numbers. It should be noted that it also depends on the series. As has been noted old gold and proof gold that are PCGS CAC makes a huge difference. You are right, opinions are subjective. If JA likes a coin and you dont or vice versa, JA's opinion means more to me than yours. No offense but thats how I feel. If you believe you have a better eye than good for you---hopefully if you ever sell others will agree with you.
The ultimate irony is you accuse others of caring more about the plastic than the coin yet your tag line highlights you collect old holders!
@gazes touché!
I’m guessing most of those ngc coins would not cross?
Well since this discussion is about the gap in pricing and I and others have shown that the market can and may be influenced by factors other than that which you claim is the answer we cannot use the market as empirical data as that data may be compromised. So again as you claim you have the answer I ask do you have any true empirical data, not just opinion but real data.
I understand why you would be confused by my collection of old holders and how you would consider it ironic. My holder collection is not made up of just one brand it encompasses many brands both functioning companies and those now long gone, in other words its about the history of coin slabbing. And history is one of the main reasons that collectors collect things.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
On the other hand, the numbers on the labels are not.
Just sayin'.
No. The numbers on the labels are opinion. If you look at old gold----often the price for a NGC 66 coin goes at auction for the price of a PCGS 65 coin, or a NGC 65 gors for the price of a PCGS 64 , etc.The number on the label is opinion. The price reflects the objective amount someone would pay for the coin. Its reassuring that some collectors dont just look at the number on the label but look at the coin itself and pay accordingly.
My perception has always been that CAC started because of a distrust in the services (hence the reason people use CAC as a grading service and as a tool against doctoring). The NGC-CAC and PCGS-CAC disparity suggests that there is at least some level of distrust with CAC or at least CAC's sole opinion isn't as dominant as some might assume. Is it that the market is so confused by repeated cycles of grade inflation and tightening, and because of the deluge of doctored junk in straight graded holders, that multiple opinions are needed for buyers to even touch coins anymore? I mean this genuinely and am not trolling here.
I believe you misunderstood my post. You said that market prices are objective numbers, I said the numbers on the labels are not. In other words, they're opinions.
I see. I agree. And i would add some opinions are more valued than others.
I think the TPG's wanted to use more of the numbers up to MS70 & JA flipped out.
The highest graded pre-33 saint is MS68
PCGS could just move everything up 2 grades and CAC would fold overnight.
My Saint Set
I don't know if CAC 's intent was a price equalizer between services. The marketplace will call the shots on pricing.
I don't think it was CAC's intent per se, but I do recall speculation that it would in one of JA's interviews if I am not mistaken.
If one accepts the basic proposition that not all coins are created equal at the same grade level, the coin really is worthy of first consideration over the TPG holder or whether there is a sticker. And that basic thought... A review of the coin and placing a value on what it actually looks like instead of what it is curretly housed in... Should impact valuations and what a collector should pay instead of what can change such as an opinion.
Not trolling... Just trying to offer an alternative perspective that has yet to be considered in this thread until now.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
Come on folks! If you like all the coins that are CAC'd, then buy them! I for one buy coins in both PCGS + NGC...CAC'd or not if I like them. I do not look for or need a CAC sticker for my collecting. There are turds in both services, some even CAC'd. I will say I do discount an NGC coin the amount it would cost me to cross to PCGS. I will also say in my wheelhouse NGC has thrown me some bones that upgraded 10 -15 points when I cracked and sent to PCGS(or sold raw to very happy recipients)! I attribute that to the war NGC started with PCGS about over grading and it does seem to be most were graded during that timeframe.
Where is the proof for this? CAC does not post "failures" anywhere that I am aware of.
“The Market” is the boss. We can all agree that in an example, assume for this discussion that four coins with the same date graded MS65 look virtually identical and have virtually identical eye appeal. However two are graded by NGC, and one of those two has a CAC. The other two are graded by PCGS, with one of those two with a CAC. I believe “The Market” will usually price these in the following order, high to low: PCGS w/CAC, NGC w/CAC, PCGS no CAC, NGC no CAC.
Yes, I understand there are exceptions, but the above pricing order in the real world happens very often. The fact that you may choose to buy the NGC coin without the CAC at a lower price is perfectly fine, and many will agree that’s a smart way to go, due to the nice eye appeal of the coin and the “value” obtained. While all of us intellectually may not like the concept of this “pricing order”, that doesn’t matter with pricing, as “The Market” reveals pricing actually paid, and “The Market” is the boss!
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
It’s hard for me to speculate giving my brief existence but I find this one interesting.
Completely agree on the market being the boss. But as the question, why the price difference and so why is the market where it’s at.
I would ask, has ngc always been second fiddle? Or when did it tilt? And finally to the OP, if you care to indulge, what happened?
How do you define “right” with respect to a grade? It’s certainly not necessarily the same as “stricter”.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Wait, the market is Bruce Springsteen?
My guess is @Gazes may mean that the “perception” of many (The Market) is that PCGS is stricter than NGC, hence higher pricing for PCGS graded coins than equivalently graded NGC coins, even if they both have a CAC. Yes, I agree this is a contradiction, as the OP points out, since in theory CAC is saying BOTH coins with the CAC are solid for that same grade. Go figure, but as I noted, “The Market” is the boss.
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
Which could present an opportunity if you are more concerned with the quality of the coin than the resale price.
😆😂🤣
In general in my opinion "right" means that overall for the coins i collect pcgs does a better job with all that goes into a review of the coin.
Let me ask you, do you think in general (i am not interested in exceptions) there is a difference in quality between a pcgs old proof gold coin and the same in a ngc holder? If you think so, we are in agreement. If not, then we just have a difference of opinion.
One factor / could reflect impact of blue sheet on ultra big ticket coins where Pcgs blue sheet bid considerably greater vs ngc. I would think this would have an influence on bidders.
Also coins bid up by toning hobbyists mult x MV could skew the results as these can go really high.
I would wager other factor of course preference by many for PCGS material especially big ticket buyers. What statistical study backs up op opening statement and how material is the difference?
Another observation 5400 Pcgs CAC on eBay vs 1600 NGC cac
Why not air this on NGC forum and see their response. Wb interesting. Here you have a home crowd.
Case in Point.
Currently on the Bay a PCI 1995 1C MS69 DDO listed for 295.00 and then further down the page a Gold Shield PCGS version listed for 4,999.00
Could be some profit there, along as it crossed. It if came back MS68 its break even minus fees.