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Dwindling inventories?
Dave99B
Posts: 8,420 ✭✭✭✭✭
I spend a fair amount of time bouncing around between the major coin-related sites (Heritage, Great Collections, eBay, dealer sites, etc). Like everyone else, I'm always looking to upgrade certain dates, or add new coins to my collection. Seems like that last 3-4 months or so, inventories seem to be getting very stale...not seeing much fresh material. Do you feel the same? It's sort of driving me crazy. Maybe it's related to all the cancelled shows? Fresh material is just sitting in a safe somewhere, waiting for the craziness to end?
Dave
Always looking for original, better date VF20-VF35 Barber quarters and halves, and a quality beer.
9
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Summer tends to be slow except for the big shows.
Imho
Yes, I am experiencing the same.
https://greatcollections.com/Collections/1120/The-Keyman64-Mercury-Dime-Collection/2024-07-07
I get the impression that nice coins are getting snatched up all over, especially gold.
No shows and most collectors not trading coins at the moment. Bigger things on peoples minds such as the pandemic, mass unemployment etc.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Gerry Fortin has described in his blog how he has stopped buying inventory at shows (since they have been cancelled),
and shifted even more to consignments.
Primarily he has Seated material, but in the past year it has been a lot of gold as well, and other types.
https://www.seateddimevarieties.com/DailyBlog.htm
Quieter than usual. Heritage's weekly auction is a ghost of its former self. Also, a lot of popular collector coins have been slowly increasing in price (at least, online). Check out the 1909 VDB in MS65 RD from major auction houses (PCGS data, ebay excluded):
Not definitive, but would not surprise me if the trend continues. Less available activities means coin collecting gets a bigger piece of the pie, relatively speaking.
Aercus Numismatics - Certified coins for sale
Yes, Nice coins seem to be harder to come by.
Not many collections walking into the shops around here. Older folks may be scared to leave home...
Many in the business like myself have kept inventory level constant in these uncertain times. If stuff is not selling I am not buying. Every now and then something will retail from the online store, I will print out the shipx label and enter the transaction in the Sales Journal plus note of markup achieved. Then possibly go shopping.
Lately there really has not been that much that floats my boat to buy except some low pop (single digit) Mexico Slabbed coins, (for what it would cost 2 people go out to dinner) graded world low pop currency, and a nice 2020 PCGS MS70 slabbed 1st release USA ASE I got for $42 (PCGS registry says MV $100 wow I did well). I took what I made off last months sales and bought a blazing gem low pop slabbed world gold coin.
Americans killed in WW2 were 455 k and Americans killed from hiv 700 k (assuming I googled these correctly). Covid is still on the field increasing exponentially and could be in position to surpass those stats fairly soon. Furthermore many have become unemployed with an uncertain future if they will even regain what they have had.
Once it’s over (if) many in coin club / biz contacts I have talked to will spend money on entertainment (Ritz Houston), sports events, medical / dental work missed bc of fear of covid. Coins last. I look forward to attending shows when they return. Been saving up buy some nice coins & currency.
US Deaths
37 k Korean War
58 k Vietnam War
34 - 100 k 1968-70 Hong Kong flu H3N2 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_flu
46 - 95 k 2017-18 flu season (higher than average flu season)
70 - 116 k 1857-58 Asian flu H2N2 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1957–1958_influenza_pandemic
117 k WW 1
135 k COVID-19 (so far)
405 k WW 2
655 k Civil War
500 - 850 k 1918 Spanish Flu H1N1
700 k HIV (but this is over ~35 years; not really comparable to a single flu season)
[updated]
So viruses are more contagious than bullets?
At least more deadly.
It is fathomable that Covid-19 pass WWII deaths. It is only accelerating now. If we return to 2,000+ deaths per day for the fall and winter it could happen. The bigger question is will we reach civil war or Spanish Flu counts.
How this affects coin collecting and prices is something we can all speculate about. Collector deaths/estate coming to market increasing supply, lost income decreasing demand, lost income increasing supply (sell coins for food/rent/mortgage).
I have noticed inventories are down, and auction offerings are generally less. A lot of people are hunkered down hoping they don't get the virus, and selling coins is just not that important now. I have delayed a few coins I was planning on selling.
Certainly this virus is what they term a 'black swan' event....Health, mortality, business, finances, politics - all are impacted significantly. The unknown is when recovery will fully take hold. I suspect we have a few more months to deal with this.... Then, slowly, business, jobs, spending will return....likely around the holidays and then accelerate into next spring. JMO and although I have a crystal ball, I do not have the accompanying mystic abilities. Cheers, RickO
No problem here.
Don't forget the Hong Kong flu of 1968-69.
100 K deaths in US and 4 million worldwide.....(but I didn't get a day off school)
And H2N2 (1957- 1958) Which was 116k.
Not sure what a graph of a thinly traded coin tells us. Your graph shows 5 coins over $150k but only 2 of them this year.
https://www.pcgs.com/prices/coin-index/pcgs3000
pcgs3000 does not show a significant uptick in pricing.
mint state type coins
https://www.pcgs.com/prices/coin-index/mint-state-type
Some uptick in key dates and rarities but still lower than last year
https://www.pcgs.com/prices/coin-index/key-dates-and-rarities