The Lombra Factor
mrearlygold
Posts: 17,858 ✭✭✭
Saw this somewhere:
Professor Ray Lombra, of the Economics Department at Penn State University, has just completed another evaluation of data on the performance of rare American coins over the past 25 years. Previously, Professor Lombra had conducted a similar analysis for the Joint Committee on Taxation of the U.S. House and Senate.
Anyone have a link to this story/article?
Professor Ray Lombra, of the Economics Department at Penn State University, has just completed another evaluation of data on the performance of rare American coins over the past 25 years. Previously, Professor Lombra had conducted a similar analysis for the Joint Committee on Taxation of the U.S. House and Senate.
Anyone have a link to this story/article?
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
1
Comments
Lombra's presentation is available here:
https://pcaginc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Lombra-Report.pdf
Here's PCAG's marketing page on the report:
https://pcaginc.com/the-lombra-report/
It's a 13 page PDF with some small tables and no graphs.
The problem is that results are very dependent on the start and end points chosen.
Results for the "best 3 years" or "best one-year" will favor volatile investments,
and historic conditions which are not relevant to the current day.
About as expected for paid research, I suppose.
I like the "PCGS 3000" as an unbiased assessment of the rare coin market.
The graph shows easily that if you start in 1979 you get a positive return,
but if you start in, say, Nov. 1993, you get close to a zero return, depending on where you stop.
https://www.pcgs.com/prices/coin-index/pcgs3000
Thank you for the links.
Interesting study.... However, as with all studies, there are questions. Having spent the large portion of my career in areas that demanded study and statistics, I have a favorite line when someone quotes statistics.
Cheers, RickO
'Statistics are like a bikini, what they reveal is very revealing, what they conceal is vital.'
I’m going to have to remember that one!
I just refer to the PCGS 3000 for accurate / unbiased view for state of the market. Its all about timing. If from 1970 to 89 you made money. If after 89 a smash mouth buy low sell high slugfest to make any money. Probably 95 pct collectors lost money on latter period.