Corona-flation
Leeroybrown
Posts: 510 ✭✭✭✭✭
In light of local coin shops, coin shows being closed, this obviously has put a strain on most of our favorite dealers to obtain fresh inventory, get silver and gold bullion, and also obtain PQ pieces in as high a numbers as previously able. Many dealers have even referenced this in their daily and weekly blogs...
With that in mind, it seems that the online premiums are causing their to be a potential inflationary price increase on many coins, bullion, etc.
Also, something else I am noticing is that there is a widening gap between higher quality, rarer, PQ, and cac coins vs. non PQ pieces... what we would call B- coins and below...
Is anyone else noticing the same dynamic and have any thoughts on the above thoughts as well???
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no, not at all.
No, not due to the current pandemic.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
Noticed it with bullion. Coins, not so much.
This...I assume in regard to the PQ nonPQ spread. That has been discussed in every CAC thread on this forum in the last several years.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
I can only speak to the coins I follow (mostly types of ~$250-$1000 level) but I haven’t seen much change in pricing or valuation. I’ve seen some minor fluctuations on the down side but not much.
Definitely with bullion, although the premiu. seems to be starting to shrink back down.
The local market maker was at +2.85 on silver and is down to +1.90. On gold, he was at +5% buy/+7% sell and he's down to +4% buy/+6% sell.
Well see what next week brings...
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
The economic situation is so questionable that predictions of future pricing is pure speculation. I personally think that paying "premium" prices for anything collectible right now will prove to have been a big mistake. Cash will be king, not collectibles.
I noticed it on gold coins. US gold coin near melt in TPG holders are difficult to find.
This has been happening for over a decade. Search for bifurcation on the forums.
I have not been buying lately, though I still look....and the premiums on gold and silver seem to have plateaued or even dipped a tad...Just my impression.... Cheers, RickO
Try and buy a $20 anywhere. Common anything close to $2k with melt at $1650. Not that long ago MS-64 Saints struggled to get $50 over melt.
I also noticed it on bullion related stuff, but not so much coins, although internet action is strong on collectible coins, because of the other venues shut down. I think premiums on bullion is just starting to soften a bit. I have already had some customers asking why the price of silver hasn't hit an all time high in recent weeks, after they paid 25+ for .999 silver a few weeks ago. They were looking for that big upswing that didn't come
I even had one guy mortgage his house to buy all the silver and gold he could get at ridiculous premiums a few weeks ago.
he didn't buy from me, as I had none, he bought from one of the big firms.
No
The prices for USGTC close to melt (shows - wholesalers) are wholesale. That window has closed with the demise of shows during this period. Perhaps demand has caught up with supply. It takes cost plus about 30-40 pct make coin biz work on eBay.
FMV for 1924 MS64 Saint is $2200 (PCGS Market Report). If your just paying just $2k your getting a discount off market. If gold starts going up not only these coins be full retail but possibly priced at anticipated replacement cost. Such is nature of retail biz in bull market / no giveaway prices.
For all we know gold could fall after all this. Don’t overextend yourself.
Although I haven't had the opportunity due to closed shops and shows, it's my understanding I may hav a problem purchasing American classic gold at the prices I was a couple months ago. Not sure it related at all to the COVID story.
CC only has 18 1924 MS63 saints for sale now w/ $1,950 being the cheapest.
There used to be pages of them.
https://www.collectorscorner.com/Category/Category.aspx?catId=67
I wonder if any went into the pot because of interest in four-nines bullion?
My Saint Set
I have seen no difference in pricing.
Pricing remains strong for the good stuff as always.
That should be a sign that gold and silver have peaked. LOL.
The old saying is that the Stock Market peaks when you are getting stock tips from cabbies.
He's going to be very sorry if we enter a prolonged deflationary cycle.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
The gold premium increase is almost definitely related to Covid. It was, at the very least, coincident with the beginning of the shutdown.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Gold could go either way. [In my opinion.] It is silver that I would stay away from. It had been trying to drop for weeks and the drop was stopped by the Covid issues. Especially if industrial demand takes time to recover, silver may start sliding again.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Almost definitely... got it!
I would pass on material at prices above what I pay (especially big ticket), could care less their excuse or reason. After this situation over prices could fall drastically aka 89 crash. It will take years for many recover from this if among the millions jobless or lost business revenue. Some will never recover similar to those victims of the 2015 oil price crash job loss then age bias, forced early retirement, or underemployment in job market. One guy I know of 59 (victim of oil crash) fell down stairs at family gathering and dead on the spot.
In my view now could be a terrible time to buy just like 2015 appears to have been (Pcgs 3000). This situation much worse plus no end in sight.
Maybe work on a box of graded silver Bullion ASE, Mexico Onzas MS69-70. Have won some less than what it would cost me to slab them lol. Many low pop. Or perhaps low pop world silver numismatic coins / they seem so absurdly cheap vs US. I think silver and low single digit pop world coins have potential.
Concentrate on something fun, in your area of expertise, and affordable.
I have to wait longer for bullion delivery.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
95% of my coin purchases are made from Ebay or internet connections so I haven’t been hurt yet. I’m not one that has been a constant Ebay bashier either. Just do your homework
Lafayette Grading Set
There are so many market players, you can never be 100% sure of anything.
The majority of the gold market is not made up of gold stackers. You've got hedge funds, speculators, big banks, central governments, etc. Those big players do not stack gold and they trade a lot more bullion than people buying it as insurance against disaster. Those big players also do not generally buy gold as insurance or safety or an inflation hedge. For example, in 2009/2010 while Main Street Joe was buying a few ounces as a hedge, those players were dumping tons just to raise cash.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
I not seeing anything different.
Of course the big players have different trading strategies than us small retail purchasers. I've noticed governments and central banks adding silver and gold at some of the oddest times. As far as selling to raise cash, that's not unusual but one must separate paper from physical gold transactions. Gold got killed a couple sessions during this latest COVID for exactly the same reason.
Which is why you (I) can't ever be certain of causality.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
After much thought - No such thing covoid inflation in real market value sense. Covid job losses mounting, coins getting less at auction, becoming more illiquid as this goes on. People without jobs or scared for their financial future don’t have money for coins. Many losing jobs may never recover that earning level post Covid.
As far as the wealthy that may be different but they are very fussy about what they buy. I have downsized material in recent months - some good retail but mostly auction sales - essentially breakeven cost wise but loss with selling expense.
My main numismatic entertainment is contest on coin talk - will a particular coin sticker? People vote, add comments then the reveal. Then next one up.
I keep monitoring bids on generic dollars one of my fav canaries in mine.
I don't know, many of the folks around here are making more money now with all the stimulus than they were when they were working. Several people that have stopped by the shop have told me how much money their getting for doing nothing and hopes they keep it flowing!!!
They sure haven't had nothing to sell, they just want to buy silver! One guy got like 3600 bucks the other day from unemployment backpay and was looking for silver. Said he aint going back to work, going to ride it out as long as he can