JA key dates
Gazes
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Most series have well known key dates. With the advent of CAC, there are now CAC key dates. It is interesting to note where CAC census varies from the traditional notion of the key date. For instance, the universal key date for indian quarter eagles is the 1911-D. However, the CAC census shows 9 1911-D's stickered at 65 and one at 66. By contrast, the 1914-D indian QE has only 4 stickered at 65 and none higher. Post any other key date CAC coins that may not be the traditional "key date" for its respective series.
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OMG! POOF
Liberty Seated dollars and half dollars have similar instances.
LOL. Well, it's been a long time since we had a CAC thread.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
I like CAC. But do we really know how to interpret that data?
I mean, suppose I have a coin that only has 3 CAC coins, 2 64s and a single 65, but there are 100 66s that didn't CAC. What would that mean? That JA considers the series to be mostly overgraded? If so, and the 100 66s are really 65CACs, then isn't there really 101 mS65 quality coins available?
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
1869 $10. Population 57 with CAC pop of 1 in 55. 1866 and 1868 $10’s with slightly higher pops with CAC pop of 2.
Plus my understanding is that population number is for both grading companies. Is there anyway too know how many for each service.
1853-O 25C MS64 only CAC example in MS
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1841-D liberty QE, population 9 in CAC (gold+green), 2 gold stickers, of 5 total for all D mint QEs and 64 gold stickers for all liberty QEs. One gold at 45, one at 50. These are rare, even rarer with sticker, almost unique w/ gold sticker.
Potentially, but a very small percentage of their owners are going to take the financial hit to do the downgrade, so it's really a moot point.
I understand the spirit of the question. The thing is, if I have a pop 1 CAC coin, it could just be that no one else has sent that coin to CAC yet..
Overall there are too many unknowns to draw any real significance from the CAC pop data. I'll use the example that jmlanzaf put forth:
The problem with his assumption is that its possible that some, perhaps even most, of the MS66 examples have been seen and failed for reasons that would also have them fail at a lower grade. Like altered surfaces or some other reason that could potentially disqualify a coin at any grade at CAC. Its an interesting question and fun to guesstimate using the data but that's all it really is just assumptions and guesses.
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Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
I thought there were many gold dates and mintmarks in various series with very few CAC examples, kind of the original point of CAC. Not sure this proves any more than what is already known.
Doug Winter has written a number of excellent articles analyzing what the CAC population tells us about certain gold coins. If you go to his site and search his articles and blogs you can find them.
1856-C $2.50 - 5 CAC approved in all grades (2 in 55, 2 in 58 and 1 in 61)
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/liberty-head-2-1-gold-major-sets/liberty-head-2-1-gold-basic-set-circulation-strikes-1840-1907-cac/alltimeset/268163
I don't understand how you can take an entire series only to whittle it down by holders and then whittle it down further by sticker to call it a "key" or "scarcity" when you are ignoring a good portion of the extant population. This approach treats the other coins as if the other coins do not exist. It creates false rarity and exacerbates the already grossly distorted pricing of so called "condition rarities."
If you are building a CAC only set then more power to you; however, if you ignore the other coins' existence you are setting yourself up for disappointment and a burial. Take common date Saints or other similar series plagued by grade inflation, and you may find that very few sticker. Those that do, while perhaps of superior quality (arguable depending on the coin), are hardly scarce. To play devil's advocate maybe rarer material will have higher CAC populations due to a higher volume of submissions whereas common dates may not be submitted. Calling those "CAC keys" seems absurd to me.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
It does, but it is even worse. The more refinements and artificial enhancers you add to create "rarity" the less stable the market seems and the less justifiable the pricing becomes for many issues IMHO.
Well, my assumption is for illustration purposes only. There's all kinds of ways the data could be flawed. So, we are in total agreement.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
No, it is the VERY point - unless you just collect stickers. Why is it relevant that there is one 65 CAC if there are 100 66 No CAC of equal quality? There are 101 equivalent coins you could buy. It is pop 101, not pop 1. Again, unless you just collect the stickers.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
Collect the coin---not the sticker.
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We generally agree on CAC. I'll look if I get a chance. You don't have an executive summary?
I just think you need more than just the CAC pop to know anything. I mean if a coin in 65 is 10/1 (all services) but 1/0 CAC, then you might have something. But if a coin in 65 is 100/10 but 1/0 CAC, I'm not sure what to make of it especially if those 10 finer include a 67 or two.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
I like CAC.
oh brother, will anyone ever learn??
I have many slabbed gold coins and like most collectors never sent a one to cacs. The coin itself is what is key, not some silly sticker. Plus CACs wouldn't know eye appeal on gold if it hit them right between the eyes.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
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Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
Huh. Me neither.
The only 'key' coins - or rarities - for me, are one's I do not already have....
And that is what counts, for me. 
Cheers, RickO
11-D saints are almost all salty & dark with reduced luster.
Philadelphia apparently sent them the dies to use so I'm assuming it wasn't that.
Denver did alloy their own gold for use in the two branch mints so that might be it.
Maybe it was the press settings or a lack of die polishing, I don't know. (they only recently started coining)
Whatever it was, 11-D saints aren't very bright & I think some people really don't like them.
JA, I suspect, is like a Blue Jay, his handlers put him on a perch next to a conveyer belt and he pecks at anything shiny that goes by.
It's very obvious to me that condition is not his top priority.
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The main point of my OP is for people to identify dates for any series where the CAC population is far lower than you would think given the traditional notion of key dates. From that it would allow collectors to further investigate the reason (like DW has done in several articles). In other words, it is one step in further research.
Also, a couple posts have stated the CAC population means nothing because we dont know how many coins have been submitted. At this point, JA has given enough interviews that we can make assumptions on the numbers submitted. Also, since we are talking about coins with very low CAC pops that might be condsidered key dates , we can also assume most have been viewed by JA since it would increase the value substantially (not every case---you need to check cac price guides to determine). My example in the OP of the 1914-d QE is a perfect example. One in 65 will be worth twice as much being CAC approved. One can assume that most 65s that have a chance had been sent to JA.
Thanks for those who have listed coins that have surprisingly low CAC pops.
You can't do it. PERIOD.
Pete
I'm surprised nobody mentioned the fact that on many low population coins the grading services population reports are inflated due to resubmissions. In contrast, the CAC population report is much more accurate because it is much less susceptible to this problem. Another example where CAC populations are superior is for 1862 LSD's. Unfortunately the grading services have graded many circulated proof examples EF and AU, Currently a major dealer has one for sale, JA is aware of this problem and to my knowledge has not made this error.
Because in theory you'll be paying a higher price for any of the 66s!! The main premise of CAC was to help collectors avoid overpaying for overgraded coins.
That is my gripe with the US coin market. It is getting tougher and tougher for collectors, dealers, businesses to extract value and $$$ from US coins. They have to alter their marketing by using CAC, holder generations, toning, pedigrees etc to move coins. The US coin market is mature and I don't see much upside potential these days at current prices.
The world coins (gold and silver) are where the growth will be at in the future. You can observe frustrated US collectors migrating that way. There is a lot less info, knowledge and marketing on world coins and I can find cherrypicks and deals a lot easier than on US coins.
Like others have said, it’s hard to gauge because there may just be a small population that have been sent in.
However, there are some well known dates for the bust half series for example that have a tough time and small population of CACs. 1810 and 1813 in AU55-58 are very tough and people seem to pay a substantial premium.
BHNC #248 … 130 and counting.
If it’s a $500 coin that certainly might be the case but if it’s a $10,000 coin it’s possible but unlikely.
I agree that it raises a lot of interesting questions worthy of in depth exploration. A lot of antebellum and even post war proof gold has been tinkered with. It may be that few unmolested examples exists. It reminds me of Rick Sears's observation of matte proof gold. I just cannot bring myself to refer to coins as "keys" based on plastic alone.
I have to press the WGAS button on this!
Speaking of Matte Proof gold coins, thirty years ago, I could usually tell what date the coins were, just by looking at the reverses. That was because each date had its own unique color and texture. Now days, sadly, so many of them have been messed with, that their once-unique appearances have been largely compromised.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
How many ended up (percentage of survivors) in the Richmond Collection? Rick posted that NCS dipped/processed a lot of those destroying the texture and color.
Sorry, I have no idea.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
1842 $2.50 (50 to 60 known according to PCGS) 37 slabbed by PCGS in all grades. CAC has stickered 6. Of those 6 I have this XF45 and the F12 in the CAC pop report.
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/liberty-head-2-1-gold-major-sets/liberty-head-2-1-gold-basic-set-circulation-strikes-1840-1907-cac/alltimeset/268163
Alot of the philadelphia lib quarter eagle gold from the 1840s is really hard to find nice.
Ok here you go, 7 in this grade in all color designations between the two services none higher and this is the lone CAC approved example. Probably only means that this is the only one ever sent in. Bought here on the BST 16 years ago.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
I love the way auction descriptions work now. There's a short bit about the coin, and then something like this:
Coin 6853.12 B9 BB-13 DS/2 R4.2 PCGS Pop 87/582 CAC 35/255 CUPG 4000 CDN 3750, 3880 (CAC) NGC 4050
What we really need is another few descriptors, for clarity.
CAC key dates? Now we are getting dangerously close to junk science or junk math.
I like CAC, but this premise is pretty ridiculous.
10-4,
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Happens in every industry. Look at some camera lens designations sometime. They all need their flair to show off.
One can use the term key date or suprisingly low cac population or whatever. The main point is now that cac is more than 10 years old, its cac population stats can help us learn more about our series. For instance in the Feb 20, 2020 coinweek Doug Winter wrote an article about No Motto liberty eagles analyzing their CAC populations. Hardly junk science--this information is very helpful to anyone trying to build a special collection. I think it is very helpful to try and locate these outliers in the CAC census and try to determine why so few of a particular series or date have been stickered.
Absolutely Gazes. I agree!
I also believe that cac has a lot to do with identifying quality coins... not just those undergraded, etc.
I would go out on a limb to say that 7,8 outta 10 coins are above average quality (A or B coins)
I don't know. I still think the analysis is more complicated.
Imagine a different hypothetical: The Peter Principle applied to coins.
Suppose every coin is submitted over and over until it is promoted one grade higher than it should be. Then there would (in theory) be zero CAC coins for that issue. What would that tell you other than that series in JA's opinion is over-graded?
I like CAC. Pop information is helpful. But I'm just not sure CAC rarity itself is very helpful.
I mean, am I supposed to conclude that the 14-D is underpriced because there are fewer CAC examples than the 11-D?
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
I think JA looking at most 1914-D indian Quarter Eagles in MS-65 and only stickering 4 of them (and none higher) tells you that solid gem 1914-Ds are very rare and very hard to find. Probably far rarer than most people thought some years ago
@Gazes I'm not saying I agree with it or completely understand it but you are on to something.
I was visititing a nationally known dealer at FUN this year.
He was looking at and evaluating a coin I had that is in the series they specialize in.
Besides the usual talk of preservation, mintage, eye appeal, etc., he surprised me with a detailed talk about where it stood within the CAC pop numbers and how that stood out to him in a positive way.
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