@Insider2 said:
I just read that: "Around a third of participants in a Massachusetts study tested positive for antibodies linked with coronavirus, according to researchers. The Mass. General study took samples from 200 residents on the street in Chelsea, MA. Participants remained anonymous and provided a drop of blood to researchers, who were able to produce a result in ten minutes with a rapid test."
The folks didn't even know they had come into contact with the virus at some point. Most of us are still going into stores, gas stations, or just going outside. I'll bet the % of members here with the antibody and no ill effects is at least the same. Others like TDN become severely affected and a small percentage of the population do die.
If you read it on the Internet, it must be true! The accuracy of many of these rapid tests is still in doubt.
@Insider2 said:
I just read that: "Around a third of participants in a Massachusetts study tested positive for antibodies linked with coronavirus, according to researchers. The Mass. General study took samples from 200 residents on the street in Chelsea, MA. Participants remained anonymous and provided a drop of blood to researchers, who were able to produce a result in ten minutes with a rapid test."
The folks didn't even know they had come into contact with the virus at some point. Most of us are still going into stores, gas stations, or just going outside. I'll bet the % of members here with the antibody and no ill effects is at least the same. Others like TDN become severely affected and a small percentage of the population do die.
If you read it on the Internet, it must be true! The accuracy of many of these rapid tests is still in doubt.
This is the typical Pap I listen to or hear all day from your ilk. Anyone who believes EVERYTHING on the Internet is a complete fool! Ditto to ANYONE who disregards postings on the internet ESPECIALLY when a genuine study posted by a well-respected organization HAS NOT BEEN DISPUTED ANYWHERE by ANYONE with enough intelligence to read.
Stay safe. I'll look forward to more - shall I say- amusing posts in the future.
BTW:
CORONAVIRUS HITS LEGEND is the topic of this discussion.
TDN was "cured" by another one of those untested drug combo's that many of your ilk have reported DON'T WORK at all!
@Insider2 said:
I just read that: "Around a third of participants in a Massachusetts study tested positive for antibodies linked with coronavirus, according to researchers. The Mass. General study took samples from 200 residents on the street in Chelsea, MA. Participants remained anonymous and provided a drop of blood to researchers, who were able to produce a result in ten minutes with a rapid test."
The folks didn't even know they had come into contact with the virus at some point. Most of us are still going into stores, gas stations, or just going outside. I'll bet the % of members here with the antibody and no ill effects is at least the same. Others like TDN become severely affected and a small percentage of the population do die.
If you read it on the Internet, it must be true! The accuracy of many of these rapid tests is still in doubt.
This is the typical Pap I listen to or hear all day from your ilk. Anyone who believes EVERYTHING on the Internet is a complete fool! Ditto to ANYONE who disregards postings on the internet ESPECIALLY when a genuine study posted by a well-respected organization HAS NOT BEEN DISPUTED ANYWHERE by ANYONE with enough intelligence to read.
Stay safe. I'll look forward to more - shall I say- amusing posts in the future.
BTW:
CORONAVIRUS HITS LEGEND is the topic of this discussion.
TDN was "cured" by another one of those untested drug combo's that many of your ilk have reported DON'T WORK at all!
Or... I was cured by my own immune system and the untested drug combo did nothing or even hindered my recovery. Nobody knows...although there are significant proven side effects to said drug.
@Insider2 said:
I just read that: "Around a third of participants in a Massachusetts study tested positive for antibodies linked with coronavirus, according to researchers. The Mass. General study took samples from 200 residents on the street in Chelsea, MA. Participants remained anonymous and provided a drop of blood to researchers, who were able to produce a result in ten minutes with a rapid test."
The folks didn't even know they had come into contact with the virus at some point. Most of us are still going into stores, gas stations, or just going outside. I'll bet the % of members here with the antibody and no ill effects is at least the same. Others like TDN become severely affected and a small percentage of the population do die.
If you read it on the Internet, it must be true! The accuracy of many of these rapid tests is still in doubt.
This is the typical Pap I listen to or hear all day from your ilk. Anyone who believes EVERYTHING on the Internet is a complete fool! Ditto to ANYONE who disregards postings on the internet ESPECIALLY when a genuine study posted by a well-respected organization HAS NOT BEEN DISPUTED ANYWHERE by ANYONE with enough intelligence to read.
Stay safe. I'll look forward to more - shall I say- amusing posts in the future.
BTW:
CORONAVIRUS HITS LEGEND is the topic of this discussion.
TDN was "cured" by another one of those untested drug combo's that many of your ilk have reported DON'T WORK at all!
Or... I was cured by my own immune system and the untested drug combo did nothing or even hindered my recovery. Nobody knows...although there are significant proven side effects to said drug.
Welcome back! We count you amongst the lucky ones. We have now tested a little over 3 million people in the US. About the amount of people who live in the state of Iowa. Mind boggling
Back to weeding.
m
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
@amwldcoin said:
Were you treated with the antibody plasma they are talking about????
@tradedollarnut said:
The antibody tests may be an eye opener. Thanks for all the kind words.
No. Zpack and malaria drug
That combo has been working all over the World for over a month. It was being touted even before the president mentioned it. Many don't believe it. Hardly any of its successes are being revealed in the major media so I can't blame them for being uninformed.
Hmm..... Zpack is antibacterial (it is an antibiotic), malaria is caused by a parasite, as Dr. Fauci has noted countless times, there is no clinical evidence that something like this works on a coronavirus. The evidence that it works is anecdotal, and may be (probably) wrong. It could be that the patients where they were used were recovering anyway. So successes? Hard to say, glad TDN recovered.
What is the current clinical evidence for using azithromycin to treat COVID-19?
Interesting results have been reported from a very small clinical trial, which enrolled 20 patients with COVID-19 in France. Patients were treated with hydroxychloroquine (Plaquenil) alone or in combination with azithromycin. Viral loads were significantly reduced in patients receiving hydroxychloroquine compared with those who did not receive the treatment. Patients taking hydroxychloroquine also appeared to clear the virus from their system more quickly. Virus elimination was even more efficient in the 6 patients in the trial who received both azithromycin and hydroxychloroquine.
However, results from another small trial conducted in 30 patients in China do not back up the results from the trial in France. In the Chinese trial patients did not receive azithromycin, but were treated with hydroxychloroquine or standard care. Unlike in the other trial, treatment with hydroxychloroquine did not appear to reduce viral load or shorten the time to viral elimination.
Hydroxychloroquine belongs to a group of drugs called quinolines. It is an older drug that is currently used to treat rheumatoid arthritis and discoid or systemic lupus erythematosus. It can also be used to prevent or treat malaria.
Will the antibiotic azithromycin be used to treat COVID-19?
While the results from the trial conducted in France suggest the antibiotic azithromycin may have potential in the treatment of COVID-19 when used in combination with hydroxychloroquine, larger clinical trials are clearly needed to confirm the drug combination is actually effective.
Clinical trials investigating azithromycin and hydroxychloroquine are set to begin in patients with COVID-19 in New York and Brazil and researchers are also calling for further trials to be conducted.
@Insider2 said:
I just read that: "Around a third of participants in a Massachusetts study tested positive for antibodies linked with coronavirus, according to researchers. The Mass. General study took samples from 200 residents on the street in Chelsea, MA. Participants remained anonymous and provided a drop of blood to researchers, who were able to produce a result in ten minutes with a rapid test."
The folks didn't even know they had come into contact with the virus at some point. Most of us are still going into stores, gas stations, or just going outside. I'll bet the % of members here with the antibody and no ill effects is at least the same. Others like TDN become severely affected and a small percentage of the population do die.
'Herd immunity' which can ultimately be what snuffs this out.......
@Insider2 said:
I just read that: "Around a third of participants in a Massachusetts study tested positive for antibodies linked with coronavirus, according to researchers. The Mass. General study took samples from 200 residents on the street in Chelsea, MA. Participants remained anonymous and provided a drop of blood to researchers, who were able to produce a result in ten minutes with a rapid test."
The folks didn't even know they had come into contact with the virus at some point. Most of us are still going into stores, gas stations, or just going outside. I'll bet the % of members here with the antibody and no ill effects is at least the same. Others like TDN become severely affected and a small percentage of the population do die.
If you read it on the Internet, it must be true! The accuracy of many of these rapid tests is still in doubt.
What a surprise. I'll take what the scientists, doctors and other smart people are saying over what a self-aggrandizing borderline boor troll says on a coin forum. I also have two daughters and a son-in-law directly involved in what is going on, I'd listen to them over said boor all day long. No "cures" are being thrown out, but hyping up one that hasn't been proven in a large number of cases is irresponsible at best and dangerous at worst.
I don't think anyone in their right mind is cheering against any good cure or an anti-viral for this pandemic.
Insider Posted: "@TDN was "cured" by another one of those untested drug combo's that many of your ilk have reported DON'T WORK at all! "
@tradedollarnut responded: "Or... I was cured by my own immune system and the untested drug combo did nothing or even hindered my recovery. Nobody knows...although there are significant proven side effects to said drug."
True, that combination has not been given the usual clinical trials. However, it has been proven to work all over the world in thousands of cases. The main drug is a treatment for lupus that has been used successfully for decades with little ill effects. The Zpack can cause problems and that is why this combo should be given a hospital only so the patient can be monitored.
You and others can believe as you please. I've posted some info. I really don't care to argue. You know what happened - its your experience. As for others, it is hard for them to disagree with what they are being fed by the agenda-driven press in this country that cherrypicks everything.
The important thing to me and all of us here is that you are OK.
I ruled out hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for myself when I read that it has an especially troubling serious side effect, namely causing irregular heart beat. Dosing hydroxychloroquine with my anti-arrhythmic (for atrial fibrillation) could result in my developing an abnormal heart rythym that "can't be fixed." They discontinued use of it in France for this reason.
Nope. If that's the best doctor has to offer, just give me plenty of oxygen, put me on my stomach (Supposed to result in patient dramatic improvement. Allows the lungs to work better if patient on stomach at least part of the day) and call it good.
“I believe in intuitions and inspirations. I sometimes feel that I am right. I do not know that I am. When two expeditions of scientists, financed by the Royal Academy, went forth to test my theory of relativity, I was convinced that their conclusions would tally with my hypothesis. I was not surprised when the eclipse of May 29, 1919, confirmed my intuitions. I would have been surprised if I had been wrong.”
“Then you trust more to your imagination than to your knowledge?”
“I am enough of the artist to draw freely upon my imagination. Imagination is more important than knowledge. Knowledge is limited. Imagination encircles the world.”
Albert Einstein- quoted in Saturday Evening Post interview (1929)
Hmm..... Zpack is antibacterial (it is an antibiotic), malaria is caused by a parasite, as Dr. Fauci has noted countless times, there is no clinical evidence that something like this works on a coronavirus. The evidence that it works is anecdotal, and may be (probably) wrong. It could be that the patients where they were used were recovering anyway. So successes? Hard to say, glad TDN recovered.
It is believed that hydroxychloroquine works on the cytokine storm.
It helps reduce the effects of the severe progression of COVID-19, inhibiting the cytokine storm by suppressing T cell activation.
The azithromycin may just help any potential secondary opportunistic infections.
For anyone interested here’s a review article about pharmacological treatments for Covid-19 published this week in JAMA. It discusses hydroxychloroquine.
@CoinJunkie said:
... The accuracy of many of these rapid tests is still in doubt.
The accuracy of the antibody tests used in the random surveys in California is quite good:
2 false positives out of 371 true negatives.
Here in Santa Clara County, 3300 asymptomatic people were tested, and the 95% confidence bounds for the % exposed
to COVID-19 are 2.4% - 4%. The rates of false positives and false negatives were used in computing these bounds. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01095-0
@CoinJunkie said:
... The accuracy of many of these rapid tests is still in doubt.
The accuracy of the antibody tests used in the random surveys in California is quite good:
2 false positives out of 371 true negatives.
Here in Santa Clara County, 3300 asymptomatic people were tested, and the 95% confidence bounds for the % exposed
to COVID-19 are 2.4% - 4%. The rates of false positives and false negatives were used in computing these bounds. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01095-0
Thanks for posting the article. Here's the text directly below the statistics you quoted above:
But with that ratio of false positives to true cases, a large number of the positive cases reported in the study — 50 out of 3320 tests — could be false positives, says Marm Kilpatrick, an infectious disease researcher at the University of California Santa Cruz.
To ensure a test is sensitive enough to pick up only true SARS-CoV-2 infections, it needs to be evaluated on hundreds of positive cases of COVID-19 and thousands of negative ones, says Michael Busch, an infectious-diseases researcher and director of the Vitalant Research Institute in San Francisco, California, who is also leading a sero-prevalence survey. But most kits have not been thoroughly tested, and health agencies are particularly concerned about the accuracy of some rapid tests, says Busch.
It all boils down to this....No one knows for sure how many people have been infected and did not know it.
How many have had mild distress and thought it was nothing. How many people had it and were cured. How many people ACTUALLY DIED ONLY due to the virus and not because they were vulnerable in the first place. This virus overwhelmingly kills a specific group of people mostly the elderly with other problems.
So without knowing all the true numbers (NO ONE DOES YET) - you can just spit into the wind and continue to yack it up. People are dying but shutting down the country (22 million out of work & some businesses will never recover); dumping the nation into quadrillion's of debt, etc IS NOT WORTH IT when compared to less than 100K dying in the US. Heart disease alone kills over 500K every year!
We are born and we die from various causes. When it's your turn, I'll weep for you.
LOL, I'm really with the "Chicken Littles" who want everyone to hide in place and turn this country into a welfare state waiting several months for things to be tested and there will not be anything left to go back to. Problem is, the Chicken Littles" can never be wrong. When the deaths are low they'll say it was because they all stayed at home.
Insider 2, you should really consider your words as they do not seem to come from a basis of compassion and knowledge of health. This illness has hit certain geographic regions and population groups disproportionately, but we are all susceptible, and the majority of vulnerable individuals became sick because of contact with less symptomatic individuals who did not isolate. Saying "no one knows" is both superficially true but also dismissively disrespectful. Many of us in health care know and have seen much. Many who have recovered from illness know and have felt much.
If you are really worried about the welfare of your fellow man, there will be a number of ways to volunteer to help in your community once distancing limitations are eased. Stay safe.
Interesting discussion, which I think is a small but typical sample of what is going on between the ears of people across the US. I'm a physician but my specialty isn't directly related to viral illness, pneumonia, or epidemiology. Still, I did receive plenty of training on critical analysis and interpretation of scientific data. Some people on this board are far more expert than I am about this stuff, but there are some comments above that express profound ignorance about how medications and treatments work. Most of you that "are certain" that you had the illness are wrong. A few of you are probably right. I had a brief fever and some body aches a couple of weeks ago, but chances are that is was something else. 99% of the time we ignore symptoms like this. Random viral illnesses strike most of us every few weeks or months. Most of the information here about specific medications is flat wrong, or at least mostly wrong.
TDN's comments above are spot-on. Politically, there is no way to win with this and I'm not talking about one party or the other. No matter how this turns out, anyone in a leadership role will be accused of over-reacting by half of the people and not doing enough by the other half. As a citizen, I say cut them all (leaders, researchers, doctors etc) a little slack, at least until we have SOLID data that somewhere along they way they've acted in bad faith. It will be tempting to judge them by what we know tomorrow, not by what information they had when they were in the thick of the battle.
There is a ton we know about the disease. There is even more we won't know for years. In the last week we've learned quite a bit. Here's a bunch of my random thoughts:
Apparently it can spread quite silently in the population.
The majority of those affected likely don't have any symptoms. Most of the rest have only mild symptoms.
The true prevalence of disease is probably a lot higher than we thought (probably a good thing).
Our efforts to "flatten the curve" have been successful, at least in most locations. All of those ventilators they're making - by the time we get them we won't need them. Across the country, we don't even need them right now.
There are large unknowns about why some areas are being hit hard and others aren't seeing much.
We don't know why some patients are badly affected and some don't get sick at all.
We probably will have an immunization at some point (12 months or so), but by then it's possible we won't need it. How well it will work is anyone's guess.
The true death rate from the disease (number who die divided by the number infected) is probably (thankfully) MUCH lower than has been reported. If that's true, history will tell us that this was just a pretty bad year for pneumonia.
We actually don't know (yet) if it's better to "just let everyone get it" or carry on with extreme social isolation and other measures. We also clearly don't know how to assign a relative value to human lives, personal liberties, lost recreation and work activities, and damage to the economy. There's no math book for this.
The pragmatist in me says one way or another we'll be back to "mostly normal" within a few weeks. The general populace just doesn't have an appetite (or ability) to tolerate much more of this.
Unfortunately, fear sells and people are frequently irrational.
Playing around with viruses is serious business. We might not ever know the true origin of this, but a single careless action by a single individual might have killed tens of thousands, disrupted life across the entire planet, and cost the world's economy trillions of dollars. It could easily happen again, and the results could be FAR worse. Spanish flu, in the early 1900s had a particular nasty habit of killing young, healthy people in their prime.
As far as our hobby goes, it will be interesting to see how this affects the show circuit, brick & mortar shops, and Internet buying. We have some notions maybe, but it's hard to predict the future.
First off let me say I’m glad to hear TDN is feeling better.
In another thread someone asks if you go to a party can you tell who the coin collectors are. I say when we are finally allowed to go to gatherings will you be able to tell what side of the political isle others are on by asking opinions of this hydro whatever combo.
So are we to assume that TDNs Dr is a Trump supporter because he used this untested drug combo?
Why we are arm chair quarterbacking what Drs are using to treat patients is beyond me. I’m pretty sure no Dr is thinking before he/she decides to treat a patient whether or not the president likes the drug or is “Hyping” it.
I saw many news reports touting leaked data about an unfinished trial for another drug. If it works better than other drugs great. But the media and the rest of us non medical doctors should not be picking sides on treatments.
And last I heard death is most likely worse than the side effects of the drugs they are currently using to treat Covid. Maybe I’m wrong. I’ll go back to hoping we can get through this and get back to coin shows and golf again.
From the boor, didn't even want bother to tag him:
"We are born and we die from various causes. When it's your turn, I'll weep for you.
LOL, I'm really with the "Chicken Littles" who want everyone to hide in place and turn this country into a welfare state waiting several months for things to be tested and there will not be anything left to go back to. Problem is, the Chicken Littles" can never be wrong. When the deaths are low they'll say it was because they all stayed at home. "
LOL??? There really are no words and no one appears to be laughing except you. I'll just put my phasers on ignore. You might be knowledgeable about coins and grading, but with 3 of my offspring in the fight since they are in the health profession, I'll call your post a lowdown cheap shot. I'll just say as a human being, you come across as the olfactory equivalent of a never changed catbox. Goodbye and good riddance.
@CoinJunkie said:
... The accuracy of many of these rapid tests is still in doubt.
The accuracy of the antibody tests used in the random surveys in California is quite good:
2 false positives out of 371 true negatives.
Here in Santa Clara County, 3300 asymptomatic people were tested, and the 95% confidence bounds for the % exposed
to COVID-19 are 2.4% - 4%. The rates of false positives and false negatives were used in computing these bounds. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01095-0
Thanks for posting the article. Here's the text directly below the statistics you quoted above:
But with that ratio of false positives to true cases, a large number of the positive cases reported in the study — 50 out of 3320 tests — could be false positives, says Marm Kilpatrick, an infectious disease researcher at the University of California Santa Cruz.
To ensure a test is sensitive enough to pick up only true SARS-CoV-2 infections, it needs to be evaluated on hundreds of positive cases of COVID-19 and thousands of negative ones, says Michael Busch, an infectious-diseases researcher and director of the Vitalant Research Institute in San Francisco, California, who is also leading a sero-prevalence survey. But most kits have not been thoroughly tested, and health agencies are particularly concerned about the accuracy of some rapid tests, says Busch.
(Emphasis mine)
These are consistent with what I wrote. Did you have a different interpretation?
The first paragraph is a simple proportion multiplication, an example of how the ratio is used to make the final computation.
In the final computation, you do not use the raw number of test positives to create the infection %.
Instead you deflate it by the % of false positives.
You do a similar thing with the negatives.
That is, the unbiased estimate of true positives is:
(estimated true positives) = (measured positives)*(369/371) + (measured negatives)*(proportion of false negatives)
Each of the quantities on the right hand side of this equation has an associated variance, based on the number of times the kit was tested (on people where it was known if they had COVID-19 or not). The more it was tested, the smaller the variance, and this reduces the width of the final 95% confidence interval for the %infected.
In the second paragraph, when Busch says most kits have not been thoroughly tested and accuracy of some kits, I believe he is talking about different kits from the ones used in California.
Several kits are available from different manufacturers, and each type of kit should have be well tested before using them in a survey and creating estimates.
This is all described in the article, along with describing how the researchers in the California study did their own testing of the accuracy of the testing kit.
@CoinJunkie said:
... The accuracy of many of these rapid tests is still in doubt.
The accuracy of the antibody tests used in the random surveys in California is quite good:
2 false positives out of 371 true negatives.
Here in Santa Clara County, 3300 asymptomatic people were tested, and the 95% confidence bounds for the % exposed
to COVID-19 are 2.4% - 4%. The rates of false positives and false negatives were used in computing these bounds. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01095-0
Thanks for posting the article. Here's the text directly below the statistics you quoted above:
But with that ratio of false positives to true cases, a large number of the positive cases reported in the study — 50 out of 3320 tests — could be false positives, says Marm Kilpatrick, an infectious disease researcher at the University of California Santa Cruz.
To ensure a test is sensitive enough to pick up only true SARS-CoV-2 infections, it needs to be evaluated on hundreds of positive cases of COVID-19 and thousands of negative ones, says Michael Busch, an infectious-diseases researcher and director of the Vitalant Research Institute in San Francisco, California, who is also leading a sero-prevalence survey. But most kits have not been thoroughly tested, and health agencies are particularly concerned about the accuracy of some rapid tests, says Busch.
(Emphasis mine)
These are consistent with what I wrote. Did you have a different interpretation?
The first paragraph is a simple proportion multiplication, an example of how the ratio is used to make the final computation.
In the final computation, you do not use the raw number of test positives to create the infection %.
Instead you deflate it by the % of false positives.
You do a similar thing with the negatives.
In the second paragraph, when Busch says most kits have not been thoroughly tested and accuracy of some kits, I believe he is talking about different kits from the ones used in California.
Several kits are available from different manufacturers, and each type of kit should have be well tested before using them in a survey and creating estimates.
This is all described in the article, along with describing how the researchers in the California study did their own testing of the accuracy of the testing kit.
I was highlighting not so much to argue your assertion as to support my initial post in this thread. I live in CA and have a lot of faith that the scientific and medical community in this state will try to procure the most reliable tests available.
Road to recovery. Looks like a blue ribbon panel thinks we can safely open the US by the end of July providing 20 millions tests are done a day. Since we have only tested 3 million in six weeks or so it seems a pretty tall order.The tests kits have to be available by June to make this happen. Rally time
With the federal government saying they wants to lift stay-at-home novel coronavirus orders and open up parts of the country, more than 45 economists, social scientists, lawyers and ethicists say there's a growing consensus pointing to a major step necessary to put Americans back to work: dramatically upscaling testing.
In a report titled "Roadmap to Pandemic Resilience," set to be released on Monday, a blue-ribbon panel of thought leaders across the political spectrum called COVID-19 "a profound threat to our democracy, comparable to the Great Depression and World War II."
"It's a moment for a 'Can Do America' to really show up and put itself to work," Danielle Allen, lead author of the report and a professor at Harvard University's Edmond J.Safra Center on Ethics, told ABC News.
The report says that ending the quarantine safely will require testing, tracing, and supported isolation, a combination known by the acronym TTSI.
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
@Nap said:
Insider 2, you should really consider your words as they do not seem to come from a basis of compassion and knowledge of health. This illness has hit certain geographic regions and population groups disproportionately, but we are all susceptible, and the majority of vulnerable individuals became sick because of contact with less symptomatic individuals who did not isolate. Saying "no one knows" is both superficially true but also dismissively disrespectful. Many of us in health care know and have seen much. Many who have recovered from illness know and have felt much.
If you are really worried about the welfare of your fellow man, there will be a number of ways to volunteer to help in your community once distancing limitations are eased. Stay safe.
Unfortunately, there are certain groups who will be/have been hit very hard by the virus. For example the Detroit Police Force. I believe that EVENTUALLY all of us will acquire the antibody and either have serious effects including death or nothing! Thanks to folks on the front lines (YOU) we will be taken care of.
My Beef is that most folks (including me) do not know the full story. They know the agenda-driven misinformation on our TV and newspapers, Are you aware that the horrible conditions in an Italian hospital were used by the media to show what was happening in a NYC hospital?
Now my educated poster who claims to know something: Many of us in health care KNOW and have seen much.
How many folks have the antibody?
How many folks below 20 have died in the USA? How many under twenty are have you seen?
How many healthy folks died because of the virus alone?
How many deaths vs recoveries have you had OUTSIDE of a nursing home?
How many counties in the USA have had NO DEATHS?
After claiming to need 30K ventilators (about 5K actually used), more hospital beds and getting a Hospital ship and field hospitals that were not needed after all, did we do the right thing for NYC? The subways were still running and probably both helped with herd immunity and insured many others would catch a serious case of the virus.
So...I respectfully claim that folks WAY ABOVE your knowledge and PAY GRADE have demonstrated that they don't know poop - YET THEY KNOW FAR MORE than you. Until we are all tested - it will stay like that. 10+K deaths in the US (so far) from this virus NOTHING in the real world. I can write that and still pray for all of us and feel sorry for all the families in the affected groups.
Unfortunately, not many here saw the interviews with one of this country's top statisticians and one NYC doctor who are on the front lines and refute the Koolaide we have been offered. They are not alone. They give us the alternative information which happens to be what IS/HAS BEEN ACTUALLY OCCURRING
What the government did - closing down the country made sense when the genius (unknown of course) came up with an estimate of millions of dead Americans made sense. Now that it has been revised down (three times by the same genius I suspect) to way below the death rate from traffic accidents, closing the country turned out to be the wrong thing to do. The media pumped up our fears.
When I balance even 50K American deaths with the end of our country and the "American Way" - pre virus condition and OUR FUTURE - I say kill them all! If I or any of my relatives were to die in that number it would not change my mind.
PS Today 40K deaths from the virus worldwide. It will go up.
the real question is if American's freedom is absolute enough that it allows a few to put the majority at risk? And what type of risk is great enough to suppress said freedoms?
When it comes;
Yelling fire in a crowed movie theater?
Going out and about while sick?
Carrying a gun?
Smoking pot?
uneducated children?
Abortions?
Freedoms are often suppressed for the greater good, but freedoms are always suppressed for control. It is hard to tell the difference when there isn't really much of one...just shades of gray and people thinking their cause is the most important.
@Nap said:
Insider 2, you should really consider your words as they do not seem to come from a basis of compassion and knowledge of health. This illness has hit certain geographic regions and population groups disproportionately, but we are all susceptible, and the majority of vulnerable individuals became sick because of contact with less symptomatic individuals who did not isolate. Saying "no one knows" is both superficially true but also dismissively disrespectful. Many of us in health care know and have seen much. Many who have recovered from illness know and have felt much.
If you are really worried about the welfare of your fellow man, there will be a number of ways to volunteer to help in your community once distancing limitations are eased. Stay safe.
Unfortunately, there are certain groups who will be/have been hit very hard by the virus. For example the Detroit Police Force. I believe that EVENTUALLY all of us will acquire the antibody and either have serious effects including death or nothing! Thanks to folks on the front lines (YOU) we will be taken care of.
My Beef is that most folks (including me) do not know the full story. They know the agenda-driven misinformation on our TV and newspapers, Are you aware that the horrible conditions in an Italian hospital were used by the media to show what was happening in a NYC hospital?
Now my educated poster who claims to know something: Many of us in health care KNOW and have seen much.
How many folks have the antibody?
How many folks below 20 have died in the USA? How many under twenty are have you seen?
How many healthy folks died because of the virus alone?
How many deaths vs recoveries have you had OUTSIDE of a nursing home?
How many counties in the USA have had NO DEATHS?
After claiming to need 30K ventilators (about 5K actually used), more hospital beds and getting a Hospital ship and field hospitals that were not needed after all, did we do the right thing for NYC? The subways were still running and probably both helped with herd immunity and insured many others would catch a serious case of the virus.
So...I respectfully claim that folks WAY ABOVE your knowledge and PAY GRADE have demonstrated that they don't know poop - YET THEY KNOW FAR MORE than you. Until we are all tested - it will stay like that. 10+K deaths in the US (so far) from this virus NOTHING in the real world. I can write that and still pray for all of us and feel sorry for all the families in the affected groups.
Unfortunately, not many here saw the interviews with one of this country's top statisticians and one NYC doctor who are on the front lines and refute the Koolaide we have been offered. They are not alone. They give us the alternative information which happens to be what IS/HAS BEEN ACTUALLY OCCURRING
What the government did - closing down the country made sense when the genius (unknown of course) came up with an estimate of millions of dead Americans made sense. Now that it has been revised down (three times by the same genius I suspect) to way below the death rate from traffic accidents, closing the country turned out to be the wrong thing to do. The media pumped up our fears.
When I balance even 50K American deaths with the end of our country and the "American Way" - pre virus condition and OUR FUTURE - I say kill them all! If I or any of my relatives were to die in that number it would not change my mind.
PS Today 40K deaths from the virus worldwide. It will go up.
Insider, I take one thing from your statement, " When I balance 50K American deaths............. I say kill them all " You are indeed a heartless individual. You further state " If I or any of my relatives were to die in that number it would not change my mind " Has your relatives seen your quote ? I'm guessing they don't like you very much.
TDN Bruce, Happy you've weathered the storm. Although I do not know you personally, I always enjoy your insight. I've learned from you. And for that I offer a THANK YOU SIR.
@BryceM said:
Interesting discussion, which I think is a small but typical sample of what is going on between the ears of people across the US. I'm a physician but my specialty isn't directly related to viral illness, pneumonia, or epidemiology. Still, I did receive plenty of training on critical analysis and interpretation of scientific data. Some people on this board are far more expert than I am about this stuff, but there are some comments above that express profound ignorance about how medications and treatments work. Most of you that "are certain" that you had the illness are wrong. A few of you are probably right. I had a brief fever and some body aches a couple of weeks ago, but chances are that is was something else. 99% of the time we ignore symptoms like this. Random viral illnesses strike most of us every few weeks or months. Most of the information here about specific medications is flat wrong, or at least mostly wrong.
TDN's comments above are spot-on. Politically, there is no way to win with this and I'm not talking about one party or the other. No matter how this turns out, anyone in a leadership role will be accused of over-reacting by half of the people and not doing enough by the other half. As a citizen, I say cut them all (leaders, researchers, doctors etc) a little slack, at least until we have SOLID data that somewhere along they way they've acted in bad faith. It will be tempting to judge them by what we know tomorrow, not by what information they had when they were in the thick of the battle.
There is a ton we know about the disease. There is even more we won't know for years. In the last week we've learned quite a bit. Here's a bunch of my random thoughts:
Apparently it can spread quite silently in the population.
The majority of those affected likely don't have any symptoms. Most of the rest have only mild symptoms.
The true prevalence of disease is probably a lot higher than we thought (probably a good thing).
Our efforts to "flatten the curve" have been successful, at least in most locations. All of those ventilators they're making - by the time we get them we won't need them. Across the country, we don't even need them right now.
There are large unknowns about why some areas are being hit hard and others aren't seeing much.
We don't know why some patients are badly affected and some don't get sick at all.
We probably will have an immunization at some point (12 months or so), but by then it's possible we won't need it. How well it will work is anyone's guess.
The true death rate from the disease (number who die divided by the number infected) is probably (thankfully) MUCH lower than has been reported. If that's true, history will tell us that this was just a pretty bad year for pneumonia.
We actually don't know (yet) if it's better to "just let everyone get it" or carry on with extreme social isolation and other measures. We also clearly don't know how to assign a relative value to human lives, personal liberties, lost recreation and work activities, and damage to the economy. There's no math book for this.
The pragmatist in me says one way or another we'll be back to "mostly normal" within a few weeks. The general populace just doesn't have an appetite (or ability) to tolerate much more of this.
Unfortunately, fear sells and people are frequently irrational.
Playing around with viruses is serious business. We might not ever know the true origin of this, but a single careless action by a single individual might have killed tens of thousands, disrupted life across the entire planet, and cost the world's economy trillions of dollars. It could easily happen again, and the results could be FAR worse. Spanish flu, in the early 1900s had a particular nasty habit of killing young, healthy people in their prime.
As far as our hobby goes, it will be interesting to see how this affects the show circuit, brick & mortar shops, and Internet buying. We have some notions maybe, but it's hard to predict the future.
This is a long thread. But if there Is one post worth everyone's reading, you have provided it to us. Thanks BryceM
Now my educated poster who claims to know something: Many of us in health care KNOW and have seen much.
So...I respectfully claim that folks WAY ABOVE your knowledge and PAY GRADE have demonstrated that they don't know poop - YET THEY KNOW FAR MORE than you.
Unfortunately, not many here saw the interviews with one of this country's top statisticians ... give us the alternative information
When I balance even 50K American deaths with the end of our country and the "American Way" - pre virus condition and OUR FUTURE - I say kill them all!
Probably not worth a response, as you certainly show your true and repulsive colors, but in any case I will not engage any of your amateur questions with such lack of courtesy.
Maybe you can go crawling to your statistician with his “alternate facts” rather than me when you get sick.
@tradedollarnut said:
Paraphrasing:if we are successful in our mitigation efforts, it will appear as if we overreacted.
You are Absolutely Correct." Unfortunately, because of what was done, we'll never know for sure will we. It is a no lose situation (except for all the living people who's country, businesses and lives have been ruined!). Since you all stayed at home (I didn't and possibly infected hundreds of innocent people) and shut the country down we have made sure that fewer folks have died. We'll never know what would have happened if just the hot spots were dealt with.
If you read my post, the experts told the President to shut the country down based only on a guess that millions will die. He did as he was advised. It was a good decision. Unfortunately as more info became known the GUESS of deaths expected dropped a bunch. Then, as more was learned it dropped another bunch. The death estimate is still tens of thousands ABOVE reality and we have succeeded in ruining the country - FOREVER! One fool actor suggests we hibernate like this once a year so we never forget. OMG, we have raised/educated millions of young and stupid citizens. A Republic cannot survive fools.
I got off track. Apparently, the death rate so far is much less than a very bad flu season. This virus is not the flu. It seems to be more contagious; HOWEVER, it will be proven to be MUCH LESS Lethal to most of us IN THE USA who are not in certain categories. When this is over, and we all get tested (?), the death rate in the USA will be less than 1% of those who had the virus. So far I hear it is a little over .02%
Apparently it can spread quite silently in the population.
The majority of those affected likely don't have any symptoms. Most of the rest have only mild symptoms.
The true prevalence of disease is probably a lot higher than we thought (probably a good thing).
Our efforts to "flatten the curve" have been successful, at least in most locations. All of those ventilators they're making - by the time we get them we won't need them. Across the country, we don't even need them right now.
There are large unknowns about why some areas are being hit hard and others aren't seeing much.
We don't know why some patients are badly affected and some don't get sick at all.
We probably will have an immunization at some point (12 months or so), but by then it's possible we won't need it. How well it will work is anyone's guess.
The true death rate from the disease (number who die divided by the number infected) is probably (thankfully) MUCH lower than has been reported. If that's true, history will tell us that this was just a pretty bad year for pneumonia.
We actually don't know (yet) if it's better to "just let everyone get it" or carry on with extreme social isolation and other measures. We also clearly don't know how to assign a relative value to human lives, personal liberties, lost recreation and work activities, and damage to the economy. There's no math book for this.
The pragmatist in me says one way or another we'll be back to "mostly normal" within a few weeks. The general populace just doesn't have an appetite (or ability) to tolerate much more of this.
Unfortunately, fear sells and people are frequently irrational.
Playing around with viruses is serious business. We might not ever know the true origin of this, but a single careless action by a single individual might have killed tens of thousands, disrupted life across the entire planet, and cost the world's economy trillions of dollars. It could easily happen again, and the results could be FAR worse. Spanish flu, in the early 1900s had a particular nasty habit of killing young, healthy people in their prime.
As far as our hobby goes, it will be interesting to see how this affects the show circuit, brick & mortar shops, and Internet buying. We have some notions maybe, but it's hard to predict the future.
Unfortunately, IMO, even our great country will never recover. Too much has been destroyed, liberties are gone (show me your papers!), and power has been transferred forever. Did you know that our government now has even more tentacles into formerly private companies because of the loans that were given?
@Insider2 said:
I just read that: "Around a third of participants in a Massachusetts study tested positive for antibodies linked with coronavirus, according to researchers. The Mass. General study took samples from 200 residents on the street in Chelsea, MA. Participants remained anonymous and provided a drop of blood to researchers, who were able to produce a result in ten minutes with a rapid test."
The folks didn't even know they had come into contact with the virus at some point. Most of us are still going into stores, gas stations, or just going outside. I'll bet the % of members here with the antibody and no ill effects is at least the same. Others like TDN become severely affected and a small percentage of the population do die.
If you read it on the Internet, it must be true! The accuracy of many of these rapid tests is still in doubt.
What a surprise. I'll take what the scientists, doctors and other smart people are saying over what a self-aggrandizing borderline boor troll says on a coin forum. I also have two daughters and a son-in-law directly involved in what is going on, I'd listen to them over said boor all day long. No "cures" are being thrown out, but hyping up one that hasn't been proven in a large number of cases is irresponsible at best and dangerous at worst.
I don't think anyone in their right mind is cheering against any good cure or an anti-viral for this pandemic.
Well you've proved something to me. Ask your two daughters and a son-in-law directly involved (thanks for what they are doing) about a VACCINE for a virus!
Hopefully, they will answer you something like this: PaPa, when you get a vaccine against Smallpox or Polio, you are 99-100% protected. The Chinese virus is different. Then they'll tell you why they want you to get a YEARLY FLU SHOT.
@Insider2 said:
I got off track. Apparently, the death rate so far is much less than a very bad flu season. This virus is not the flu. It seems to be more contagious; HOWEVER, it will be proven to be MUCH LESS Lethal to most of us IN THE USA who are not in certain categories. When this is over, and we all get tested (?), the death rate in the USA will be less than 1% of those who had the virus. So far I hear it is a little over .02%
Since you seem to be confused by the seriousness of this:
Collector of Large Cents, US Type, and modern pocket change.
Comments
If you read it on the Internet, it must be true! The accuracy of many of these rapid tests is still in doubt.
As @Insider2 derails yet another thread...
I'm allergic to Z-pak, so I hope it isn't the only answer.
God Bless you and your family, TDN. Our best wishes. Hope you are back online soon.
Jim
When a man who is honestly mistaken hears the truth, he will either quit being mistaken or cease to be honest....Abraham Lincoln
Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it.....Mark Twain
Prayers for a speedy recovery. 🙏
"Today the crumbs, tomorrow the
loaf. Perhaps someday the whole damn boulangerie." - fictional Jack Rackham
This is the typical Pap I listen to or hear all day from your ilk. Anyone who believes EVERYTHING on the Internet is a complete fool! Ditto to ANYONE who disregards postings on the internet ESPECIALLY when a genuine study posted by a well-respected organization HAS NOT BEEN DISPUTED ANYWHERE by ANYONE with enough intelligence to read.
Stay safe. I'll look forward to more - shall I
say- amusing posts in the future.
BTW:
CORONAVIRUS HITS LEGEND is the topic of this discussion.
TDN was "cured" by another one of those untested drug combo's that many of your ilk have reported DON'T WORK at all!
Some patients just receive the drug w/o the Z-pak.
Too hard on my stomach.
If you have GERD, GL taking it.
Or... I was cured by my own immune system and the untested drug combo did nothing or even hindered my recovery. Nobody knows...although there are significant proven side effects to said drug.
Welcome back. Scary times.
Latin American Collection
Welcome back! We count you amongst the lucky ones. We have now tested a little over 3 million people in the US. About the amount of people who live in the state of Iowa. Mind boggling
Back to weeding.
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Welcome back TDN. Glad to see you are recovering!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Hmm..... Zpack is antibacterial (it is an antibiotic), malaria is caused by a parasite, as Dr. Fauci has noted countless times, there is no clinical evidence that something like this works on a coronavirus. The evidence that it works is anecdotal, and may be (probably) wrong. It could be that the patients where they were used were recovering anyway. So successes? Hard to say, glad TDN recovered.
What is the current clinical evidence for using azithromycin to treat COVID-19?
Interesting results have been reported from a very small clinical trial, which enrolled 20 patients with COVID-19 in France. Patients were treated with hydroxychloroquine (Plaquenil) alone or in combination with azithromycin. Viral loads were significantly reduced in patients receiving hydroxychloroquine compared with those who did not receive the treatment. Patients taking hydroxychloroquine also appeared to clear the virus from their system more quickly. Virus elimination was even more efficient in the 6 patients in the trial who received both azithromycin and hydroxychloroquine.
However, results from another small trial conducted in 30 patients in China do not back up the results from the trial in France. In the Chinese trial patients did not receive azithromycin, but were treated with hydroxychloroquine or standard care. Unlike in the other trial, treatment with hydroxychloroquine did not appear to reduce viral load or shorten the time to viral elimination.
Hydroxychloroquine belongs to a group of drugs called quinolines. It is an older drug that is currently used to treat rheumatoid arthritis and discoid or systemic lupus erythematosus. It can also be used to prevent or treat malaria.
Will the antibiotic azithromycin be used to treat COVID-19?
While the results from the trial conducted in France suggest the antibiotic azithromycin may have potential in the treatment of COVID-19 when used in combination with hydroxychloroquine, larger clinical trials are clearly needed to confirm the drug combination is actually effective.
Clinical trials investigating azithromycin and hydroxychloroquine are set to begin in patients with COVID-19 in New York and Brazil and researchers are also calling for further trials to be conducted.
'Herd immunity' which can ultimately be what snuffs this out.......
What a surprise. I'll take what the scientists, doctors and other smart people are saying over what a self-aggrandizing borderline boor troll says on a coin forum. I also have two daughters and a son-in-law directly involved in what is going on, I'd listen to them over said boor all day long. No "cures" are being thrown out, but hyping up one that hasn't been proven in a large number of cases is irresponsible at best and dangerous at worst.
I don't think anyone in their right mind is cheering against any good cure or an anti-viral for this pandemic.
10-4,
My Instagram picturesErik
My registry sets
Insider Posted: "@TDN was "cured" by another one of those untested drug combo's that many of your ilk have reported DON'T WORK at all! "
@tradedollarnut responded: "Or... I was cured by my own immune system and the untested drug combo did nothing or even hindered my recovery. Nobody knows...although there are significant proven side effects to said drug."
True, that combination has not been given the usual clinical trials. However, it has been proven to work all over the world in thousands of cases. The main drug is a treatment for lupus that has been used successfully for decades with little ill effects. The Zpack can cause problems and that is why this combo should be given a hospital only so the patient can be monitored.
You and others can believe as you please. I've posted some info. I really don't care to argue. You know what happened - its your experience. As for others, it is hard for them to disagree with what they are being fed by the agenda-driven press in this country that cherrypicks everything.
The important thing to me and all of us here is that you are OK.
I ruled out hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for myself when I read that it has an especially troubling serious side effect, namely causing irregular heart beat. Dosing hydroxychloroquine with my anti-arrhythmic (for atrial fibrillation) could result in my developing an abnormal heart rythym that "can't be fixed." They discontinued use of it in France for this reason.
Nope. If that's the best doctor has to offer, just give me plenty of oxygen, put me on my stomach (Supposed to result in patient dramatic improvement. Allows the lungs to work better if patient on stomach at least part of the day) and call it good.
“I believe in intuitions and inspirations. I sometimes feel that I am right. I do not know that I am. When two expeditions of scientists, financed by the Royal Academy, went forth to test my theory of relativity, I was convinced that their conclusions would tally with my hypothesis. I was not surprised when the eclipse of May 29, 1919, confirmed my intuitions. I would have been surprised if I had been wrong.”
“Then you trust more to your imagination than to your knowledge?”
“I am enough of the artist to draw freely upon my imagination. Imagination is more important than knowledge. Knowledge is limited. Imagination encircles the world.”
Albert Einstein- quoted in Saturday Evening Post interview (1929)
It is believed that hydroxychloroquine works on the cytokine storm.
It helps reduce the effects of the severe progression of COVID-19, inhibiting the cytokine storm by suppressing T cell activation.
The azithromycin may just help any potential secondary opportunistic infections.
For anyone interested here’s a review article about pharmacological treatments for Covid-19 published this week in JAMA. It discusses hydroxychloroquine.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2764727
I'm still in the Losartan camp.
Media has not mentioned it yet but there is a lot of buzz in journal articles.
I tried to find an article with the least amount of jargon.
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/03/17/angiotensin-and-the-coronavirus#comment-314106
For you Biochem folks.
https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202003.0457/v1
My Saint Set
The accuracy of the antibody tests used in the random surveys in California is quite good:
2 false positives out of 371 true negatives.
Here in Santa Clara County, 3300 asymptomatic people were tested, and the 95% confidence bounds for the % exposed
to COVID-19 are 2.4% - 4%. The rates of false positives and false negatives were used in computing these bounds.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01095-0
Thanks for posting the article. Here's the text directly below the statistics you quoted above:
But with that ratio of false positives to true cases, a large number of the positive cases reported in the study — 50 out of 3320 tests — could be false positives, says Marm Kilpatrick, an infectious disease researcher at the University of California Santa Cruz.
To ensure a test is sensitive enough to pick up only true SARS-CoV-2 infections, it needs to be evaluated on hundreds of positive cases of COVID-19 and thousands of negative ones, says Michael Busch, an infectious-diseases researcher and director of the Vitalant Research Institute in San Francisco, California, who is also leading a sero-prevalence survey. But most kits have not been thoroughly tested, and health agencies are particularly concerned about the accuracy of some rapid tests, says Busch.
(Emphasis mine)
Good to hear you are on the mend TDN.
As an infectious disease specialist, I have now seen a good number of cases, and this is a really rough illness for some people.
It all boils down to this....No one knows for sure how many people have been infected and did not know it.
How many have had mild distress and thought it was nothing. How many people had it and were cured. How many people ACTUALLY DIED ONLY due to the virus and not because they were vulnerable in the first place. This virus overwhelmingly kills a specific group of people mostly the elderly with other problems.
So without knowing all the true numbers (NO ONE DOES YET) - you can just spit into the wind and continue to yack it up. People are dying but shutting down the country (22 million out of work & some businesses will never recover); dumping the nation into quadrillion's of debt, etc IS NOT WORTH IT when compared to less than 100K dying in the US. Heart disease alone kills over 500K every year!
We are born and we die from various causes. When it's your turn, I'll weep for you.
LOL, I'm really with the "Chicken Littles" who want everyone to hide in place and turn this country into a welfare state waiting several months for things to be tested and there will not be anything left to go back to. Problem is, the Chicken Littles" can never be wrong. When the deaths are low they'll say it was because they all stayed at home.
Paraphrasing:if we are successful in our mitigation efforts, it will appear as if we overreacted.
Insider 2, you should really consider your words as they do not seem to come from a basis of compassion and knowledge of health. This illness has hit certain geographic regions and population groups disproportionately, but we are all susceptible, and the majority of vulnerable individuals became sick because of contact with less symptomatic individuals who did not isolate. Saying "no one knows" is both superficially true but also dismissively disrespectful. Many of us in health care know and have seen much. Many who have recovered from illness know and have felt much.
If you are really worried about the welfare of your fellow man, there will be a number of ways to volunteer to help in your community once distancing limitations are eased. Stay safe.
Glad you’re feeling better TDN. ⭐️
Interesting discussion, which I think is a small but typical sample of what is going on between the ears of people across the US. I'm a physician but my specialty isn't directly related to viral illness, pneumonia, or epidemiology. Still, I did receive plenty of training on critical analysis and interpretation of scientific data. Some people on this board are far more expert than I am about this stuff, but there are some comments above that express profound ignorance about how medications and treatments work. Most of you that "are certain" that you had the illness are wrong. A few of you are probably right. I had a brief fever and some body aches a couple of weeks ago, but chances are that is was something else. 99% of the time we ignore symptoms like this. Random viral illnesses strike most of us every few weeks or months. Most of the information here about specific medications is flat wrong, or at least mostly wrong.
TDN's comments above are spot-on. Politically, there is no way to win with this and I'm not talking about one party or the other. No matter how this turns out, anyone in a leadership role will be accused of over-reacting by half of the people and not doing enough by the other half. As a citizen, I say cut them all (leaders, researchers, doctors etc) a little slack, at least until we have SOLID data that somewhere along they way they've acted in bad faith. It will be tempting to judge them by what we know tomorrow, not by what information they had when they were in the thick of the battle.
There is a ton we know about the disease. There is even more we won't know for years. In the last week we've learned quite a bit. Here's a bunch of my random thoughts:
As far as our hobby goes, it will be interesting to see how this affects the show circuit, brick & mortar shops, and Internet buying. We have some notions maybe, but it's hard to predict the future.
First off let me say I’m glad to hear TDN is feeling better.
In another thread someone asks if you go to a party can you tell who the coin collectors are. I say when we are finally allowed to go to gatherings will you be able to tell what side of the political isle others are on by asking opinions of this hydro whatever combo.
So are we to assume that TDNs Dr is a Trump supporter because he used this untested drug combo?
Why we are arm chair quarterbacking what Drs are using to treat patients is beyond me. I’m pretty sure no Dr is thinking before he/she decides to treat a patient whether or not the president likes the drug or is “Hyping” it.
I saw many news reports touting leaked data about an unfinished trial for another drug. If it works better than other drugs great. But the media and the rest of us non medical doctors should not be picking sides on treatments.
And last I heard death is most likely worse than the side effects of the drugs they are currently using to treat Covid. Maybe I’m wrong. I’ll go back to hoping we can get through this and get back to coin shows and golf again.
My Ebay Store
From the boor, didn't even want bother to tag him:
"We are born and we die from various causes. When it's your turn, I'll weep for you.
LOL, I'm really with the "Chicken Littles" who want everyone to hide in place and turn this country into a welfare state waiting several months for things to be tested and there will not be anything left to go back to. Problem is, the Chicken Littles" can never be wrong. When the deaths are low they'll say it was because they all stayed at home.
"
LOL??? There really are no words and no one appears to be laughing except you. I'll just put my phasers on ignore. You might be knowledgeable about coins and grading, but with 3 of my offspring in the fight since they are in the health profession, I'll call your post a lowdown cheap shot. I'll just say as a human being, you come across as the olfactory equivalent of a never changed catbox. Goodbye and good riddance.
10-4,
My Instagram picturesErik
My registry sets
These are consistent with what I wrote. Did you have a different interpretation?
The first paragraph is a simple proportion multiplication, an example of how the ratio is used to make the final computation.
In the final computation, you do not use the raw number of test positives to create the infection %.
Instead you deflate it by the % of false positives.
You do a similar thing with the negatives.
That is, the unbiased estimate of true positives is:
(estimated true positives) = (measured positives)*(369/371) + (measured negatives)*(proportion of false negatives)
Each of the quantities on the right hand side of this equation has an associated variance, based on the number of times the kit was tested (on people where it was known if they had COVID-19 or not). The more it was tested, the smaller the variance, and this reduces the width of the final 95% confidence interval for the %infected.
In the second paragraph, when Busch says most kits have not been thoroughly tested and accuracy of some kits, I believe he is talking about different kits from the ones used in California.
Several kits are available from different manufacturers, and each type of kit should have be well tested before using them in a survey and creating estimates.
This is all described in the article, along with describing how the researchers in the California study did their own testing of the accuracy of the testing kit.
I was highlighting not so much to argue your assertion as to support my initial post in this thread. I live in CA and have a lot of faith that the scientific and medical community in this state will try to procure the most reliable tests available.
please put a 55 gallon drum of chlorine in that pool
Road to recovery. Looks like a blue ribbon panel thinks we can safely open the US by the end of July providing 20 millions tests are done a day. Since we have only tested 3 million in six weeks or so it seems a pretty tall order.The tests kits have to be available by June to make this happen. Rally time
With the federal government saying they wants to lift stay-at-home novel coronavirus orders and open up parts of the country, more than 45 economists, social scientists, lawyers and ethicists say there's a growing consensus pointing to a major step necessary to put Americans back to work: dramatically upscaling testing.
In a report titled "Roadmap to Pandemic Resilience," set to be released on Monday, a blue-ribbon panel of thought leaders across the political spectrum called COVID-19 "a profound threat to our democracy, comparable to the Great Depression and World War II."
"It's a moment for a 'Can Do America' to really show up and put itself to work," Danielle Allen, lead author of the report and a professor at Harvard University's Edmond J.Safra Center on Ethics, told ABC News.
The report says that ending the quarantine safely will require testing, tracing, and supported isolation, a combination known by the acronym TTSI.
https://www.yahoo.com/gma/road-map-recovery-report-20-million-coronavirus-tests-233600798--abc-news-topstories.html
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
*
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Unfortunately, there are certain groups who will be/have been hit very hard by the virus. For example the Detroit Police Force. I believe that EVENTUALLY all of us will acquire the antibody and either have serious effects including death or nothing! Thanks to folks on the front lines (YOU) we will be taken care of.
My Beef is that most folks (including me) do not know the full story. They know the agenda-driven misinformation on our TV and newspapers, Are you aware that the horrible conditions in an Italian hospital were used by the media to show what was happening in a NYC hospital?
Now my educated poster who claims to know something: Many of us in health care KNOW and have seen much.
How many folks have the antibody?
How many folks below 20 have died in the USA? How many under twenty are have you seen?
How many healthy folks died because of the virus alone?
How many deaths vs recoveries have you had OUTSIDE of a nursing home?
How many counties in the USA have had NO DEATHS?
After claiming to need 30K ventilators (about 5K actually used), more hospital beds and getting a Hospital ship and field hospitals that were not needed after all, did we do the right thing for NYC? The subways were still running and probably both helped with herd immunity and insured many others would catch a serious case of the virus.
So...I respectfully claim that folks WAY ABOVE your knowledge and PAY GRADE have demonstrated that they don't know poop - YET THEY KNOW FAR MORE than you. Until we are all tested - it will stay like that. 10+K deaths in the US (so far) from this virus NOTHING in the real world. I can write that and still pray for all of us and feel sorry for all the families in the affected groups.
Unfortunately, not many here saw the interviews with one of this country's top statisticians and one NYC doctor who are on the front lines and refute the Koolaide we have been offered. They are not alone. They give us the alternative information which happens to be what IS/HAS BEEN ACTUALLY OCCURRING
What the government did - closing down the country made sense when the genius (unknown of course) came up with an estimate of millions of dead Americans made sense. Now that it has been revised down (three times by the same genius I suspect) to way below the death rate from traffic accidents, closing the country turned out to be the wrong thing to do. The media pumped up our fears.
When I balance even 50K American deaths with the end of our country and the "American Way" - pre virus condition and OUR FUTURE - I say kill them all! If I or any of my relatives were to die in that number it would not change my mind.
PS Today 40K deaths from the virus worldwide. It will go up.
Uhmmm. 40k deaths in the US alone
If we are successful in our mitigation efforts, it will appear as if we overreacted....
the real question is if American's freedom is absolute enough that it allows a few to put the majority at risk? And what type of risk is great enough to suppress said freedoms?
When it comes;
Yelling fire in a crowed movie theater?
Going out and about while sick?
Carrying a gun?
Smoking pot?
uneducated children?
Abortions?
Freedoms are often suppressed for the greater good, but freedoms are always suppressed for control. It is hard to tell the difference when there isn't really much of one...just shades of gray and people thinking their cause is the most important.
11.5$ Southern Dollars, The little “Big Easy” set
I hate political gamesmanship from both parties. I love classic coins. Hope I (and you readers) live to continue to enjoy them.
Peace.
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
Insider, I take one thing from your statement, " When I balance 50K American deaths............. I say kill them all " You are indeed a heartless individual. You further state " If I or any of my relatives were to die in that number it would not change my mind " Has your relatives seen your quote ? I'm guessing they don't like you very much.
This virus in no joke... Glad you're doing better TDN "Bruce". Stay healthy !!!
TDN Bruce, Happy you've weathered the storm. Although I do not know you personally, I always enjoy your insight. I've learned from you. And for that I offer a THANK YOU SIR.
This is a long thread. But if there Is one post worth everyone's reading, you have provided it to us. Thanks BryceM
Probably not worth a response, as you certainly show your true and repulsive colors, but in any case I will not engage any of your amateur questions with such lack of courtesy.
Maybe you can go crawling to your statistician with his “alternate facts” rather than me when you get sick.
Insider, you need to stick to grading coins and working on PR vs MS versus dispensing medical advice.
Sincerely,
Somebody who works in the medical field.
"It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
You are Absolutely Correct." Unfortunately, because of what was done, we'll never know for sure will we. It is a no lose situation (except for all the living people who's country, businesses and lives have been ruined!). Since you all stayed at home (I didn't and possibly infected hundreds of innocent people) and shut the country down we have made sure that fewer folks have died. We'll never know what would have happened if just the hot spots were dealt with.
If you read my post, the experts told the President to shut the country down based only on a guess that millions will die. He did as he was advised. It was a good decision. Unfortunately as more info became known the GUESS of deaths expected dropped a bunch. Then, as more was learned it dropped another bunch. The death estimate is still tens of thousands ABOVE reality and we have succeeded in ruining the country - FOREVER! One fool actor suggests we hibernate like this once a year so we never forget. OMG, we have raised/educated millions of young and stupid citizens. A Republic cannot survive fools.
I got off track. Apparently, the death rate so far is much less than a very bad flu season. This virus is not the flu. It seems to be more contagious; HOWEVER, it will be proven to be MUCH LESS Lethal to most of us IN THE USA who are not in certain categories. When this is over, and we all get tested (?), the death rate in the USA will be less than 1% of those who had the virus. So far I hear it is a little over .02%
@BryceM has said everything better than I have:
Unfortunately, IMO, even our great country will never recover. Too much has been destroyed, liberties are gone (show me your papers!), and power has been transferred forever. Did you know that our government now has even more tentacles into formerly private companies because of the loans that were given?
Well you've proved something to me. Ask your two daughters and a son-in-law directly involved (thanks for what they are doing) about a VACCINE for a virus!
Hopefully, they will answer you something like this: PaPa, when you get a vaccine against Smallpox or Polio, you are 99-100% protected. The Chinese virus is different. Then they'll tell you why they want you to get a YEARLY FLU SHOT.
I hope I didn't BOOR (?) you Elmer.
Stay Safe!
Sheesh....
Since you seem to be confused by the seriousness of this: