Time to cash in or "Hold-em?"
1northcoin
Posts: 4,941 ✭✭✭✭✭
GOLD $1,676.40 (+29.90)
Price beginning to match supply? Not sure if this is a recent high, but seems like just yesterday we were looking at $1200 gold.
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Comments
If we knew the answer to your question we would all be rich.
I purchased a few gold coins back in 2006 - 2007. You could buy PCGS graded Mexican 50 peso's for $625.00 in AU or for about $700 they were MS61 -62. I still have them and I'm still kicking myself for not buying more. But it was no different than buying them now that $1600.00 seems high, we could be looking back in ten years saying "Why didn't I load up"?
Wisdom has been chasing you but, you've always been faster
True, but for those into probabilities there are three possible scenarios that at least historically could offer direction: X % likelihood that this is a new normal, Y % that there will be an upward trajectory; and Z % likelihood that today's number is fleeting. One of the three has to be more likely than the other two.
For those of us that stacked gold when it was 3-4 hundred dollars per AGE/Saint....today's values are all gravy....
Cheers, RickO
Virtually every government in the world is now committing billions and trillions of dollars, euros etc in fruitless attempts to save a collapsing world economy. In many countries, 50% or more of industry is shut. Most service industries are in a total lockdown and so is aviation, transport and most small businesses. Unemployment is approaching rates not seen since the 1930s depression. All businesses need assistance, from major corporations to small firms. The majority of individuals haven’t got savings for more than a couple of weeks living and for the ones who are now becoming unemployed, the situation is desperate.
You decide.
And yet places like Costco are reporting record sales, its a strange world.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
People need to eat and stock up on toilet paper.
The busiest day of the year for Trader Joe’s is normally the day before Thanksgiving. The local one here in Southern California did $160,000. The day after Gavin Newsom announced his stay at home edict they did $280,000.
With premiums at record highs? Cash-in. Forget using spot, see what buyers are paying for the real stuff.
you can buy it back cheaper down the road.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
The fundamental underpinnings of the economy are still stable. If anything, this will be good for the US in the long run as it show the importance of maintaining a certain level of domestic supply production.
"It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
This.......
These stimulus packages and bail-outs are nothing if not inflationary.
I have very little faith in the value of a dollar in the coming years.
Sure but what that tells me is that people today are not really concerned about the future, if people were really worried they would be hording cash not TP.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
The classic double play. If the dollar ultimately becomes worthless paper then it can still take care of business in the bathroom!
GOLD $1,688.60 (+42.10)
A partial answer, at least for the day.
Gold closed at $1,686.60 (Kitco). 1. Try to sell at that. 2. Try to buy at that.
American Gold Eagle 1 oz = $1,852.28 Bank Wire
$1,929.45 PayPal / CC
B.T. Barnum had it right.
P. T. Barnum's brother?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
I can’t see how we can avoid at least some inflation because of all of this economic stimulus.
Of course, we were saying that in 2009, too. Who knows?
The answer partly depends on what percentage of your total assets are currently in gold. In my case it's under 5%, so I'm holding mine for insurance. It is unclear at this point when and how fast the economy will ramp back up, and the government may end up authorizing far more stimulus than what's currently on the table. Rebuilding manufacturing and infrastructure in the US is far from certain, which means the economy will continue to be underpinned by consumption, massive debt, and financial engineering. The potential upside for gold is much greater than the potential downside from here, IMO. Bear in mind that I'm not a fiat currency-hating zealot by nature, either.
I’m pretty sure that this climate we are currently experiencing is just the thing that, might, stimulate the PM’s. I see it starting to rise and I’m going to go out on a limb and say I think it’ll go higher. JMO
P.T. Barnum never said "There's a sucker born every minute", did he?
Lance.
The lady will see you over to the cashier's booth, thanks for playing!...
Wasn’t that W.C. Fields?
Hold them unless you are desperate for additional flow or many dups
gold will continue to go up as the 2nd bailout of 2.3 trillion will trigger inflation sometime this year, I see gold easily breaking the all time high within a year
I most likely won’t part with my gold unless it’s really profitable for me, and I mean really profitable. I don’t think we could give you sound advice without know more about your life and financial status. Good luck with your decision.
Did you say the same thing in 2008/2009?
For the record, I lean that way myself in the short term.
That said, there were a whole lot of people calling for inflation after 2008/2009. It has never materialized. [Also, see Japan since 1995.]
I suspect that we are so used to thinking in terms of inflation that we don't truly have a feeling for deflation.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/3962682-deflation-total-collapse-in-price-of-gold
No, the numbers were nothing like this back then !
Perhaps one should hold what you really like thin out the rest. I have no idea when this terrible situation will end or what numismatic infrastructure will still be around. No predictor of prices, especially now. For all we know PM could crash near production cost (deflation).
There will always be spending by the wealthy. My take few of them care about coins. Cars, boats, land, swanky properties, golf, girls ones I know likes. But if they perceive something absurdly cheap some will swoop in.
We are heading into uncharted economic territory. Who really knows what the future will bring? One thing for certain is that I would not want to be holding numismatic collectibles with thin markets. Those thin markets could easily become no markets.
1806: there vash von fool born every minute
1826: a new fool is born every day
1835: there is a flat born every minute
1877: there is a fool born every hour
1879: there’s a sucker born every minute (anonymous adage)
1882: there was a sucker born every minute (attrib anon con man)
1885: there was a sucker born every minute (attrib Hungry Joe)
1888: there is a sucker born every minute (attrib Artemus Ward)
1889: a sucker is born every minute (attrib Mike McDonald)
1890: a fool was born every minute (attrib P.T. Barnum)
1892: there was a sucker born every minute (attrib P.T. Barnum)
I don’t know what gold will do in the future nor does anyone else. If I did I would give up my day job. If you’re unsure what to do why not sell a small percentage of your gold now and lock in some profit?
@291fifth Says: Who really knows what the future will bring?
Great point! If it were only the virus and not the oil too. I would think the stock market would continue to break records starting sometime in June and topping 33k.
But now I would expect a delay in that rebound until the game of chicken over oil is over.
Certainly gold will go up slightly but enough to effect my non holdings🤣
There is no easy answer here. Friend in coin club very depressed he did not sell out in 2015. Another loading up,
Until a vaccine / cure this will get worse. When the fallout clears I wonder about existing numismatic infrastructure.
I don't know any dealers that live hand-to-mouth. The nature of the business makes that kind of model unsustainable. You have to be able to take down any sized deal that presents itself. At least, if you are to be financially successful.
I believe that numismatics, and numismatic items, are in relatively strong hands.
that's because they all went under
Nothing is as expensive as free money.
Definitely food for thought. When I visited Russia a few years ago there was very little building or manufacturing infrastructure. Their economy was still reeling from the waves of inflation that have followed since the once powerful Soviet Union. Case in point was automobiles. Almost all cars on the road were manufactured elsewhere in Europe as the automotive industry of the past was nonexistent. The only Russian made cars I saw on the road were from earlier times.
If you are doing fine financially at the moment, meaning you have enough saved up to last a year or are still earning your usual salary, there is no need to cash in on the gold immediately unless you really have something like 50% of your assets invested in it, but that is still a decision to make, it is not a no-brainer. Gold is still likely (does not mean it will for certain) go up.
On the other hand, if your earning situation has dramatically decreased and you need to replace the roof over your house (or some big necessary expense), it is better to cash in some and get that roof replaced. It should be cheaper to get contractors now as the construction industry cannot be unaffected.
BST: Tennessebanker, Downtown1974, LarkinCollector, nendee
I'm going to dump all of my gold. The price of gold will drop because President Biden will start paying down the national debt, rein in excessive government spending, and bring fiscal responsibility to the federal government. This means that there won't be any inflation so why bother owning any gold?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
I know plenty of cash poor dealers. Lots of small-timers out there
If there's a decent profit it up to you then. If the price drops buy back in jmo
I'd cash in but then I couldn't fall asleep
"Inspiration exists, but it has to find you working" Pablo Picasso
Im a cash poor dealer currently, im being offered some incredibly nice coins that I want to keep and not sale. CANT MAKE IT THAT WAY.
IN FACT, TODAY I GET A CALL FROM ANOTHER DEALER ON A LARGE POTENTIAL GOLD DEAL. I HAD TO CALL THE FIRM WE SHIP TOO, TO GET A QUOTE AND POSSIBLY GET SOME FRONT MONEY. THE GUY THAT I DEAL WITH AT THE COMPANY SAID," JIM, WHAT DID YOU DO WITH YOUR MONEY SINCE YOU AINT BOUGHT MUCH LATELY" (HE IS REFERRING TO GOLD/SILVER & SCRAP I SELL THEM) BUY A NEW CAR? I SAID NO, SOME DARN NICE PRE 1800 COINS FOR MYSELF.
Depends on how much of your portfolio is in gold and when you bought it. Now seems a good time for
me to take some profits as I think it's hit it's peak for awhile. I look at the 10 year charts and my instincts says "Sell".
Thanks for all the divergent views. There are actually some pundits projecting we will see $10,000 an ounce gold though a doubling to $3,400 seems to be where there are more projecting a high might be reached.
For example, this just popped up in my inbox yesterday.
Editor's Note: Pundits are expecting it to climb to $5,000 per ounce and legendary investor Jim Rickards is even calling for $10,000! But where do you find most of the gold in the world? My colleague Gerardo Del Real can tell you just that... Please read his note below.
— Nick Hodge
One of the world’s largest banks just came out with a forecast for $3,000 gold.
That’s nearly twice what gold is trading for now — and it’s already at seven year highs. Gold $3,000
Indeed, gold has been one of the best performing assets in the entire world so far in 2020. Bank of America called it "the ultimate store of value".
If gold gets up to $3000/oz, there is going to be some serious profit taking by those that have bought in the last 10 years. Pundits have stated gold will go to $3000, $5000, or $10,000 an ounce 10 years ago too. Nobody has a crystal ball and there are too many variables to consider as well.
BST: Tennessebanker, Downtown1974, LarkinCollector, nendee
When gold broke the $1375 level in June 2019 it was off to a Head and Shoulders target of $1703 in short order. A very simple TA pattern with a huge 6 year base....they don't come any easier or obvious than that. What came down like a stone in Feb-July 2013 went up nearly just as fast in June 2019-early 2020.....classic price-volume action.
The current 3 month boom-crash-boom pattern of a 5 wave expanded wedge....and the resulting inverse head and shoulders pattern projects to $1935-$2000. Imo that's the next target before the year is out or very early into 2021. Don't have any patterns I can see to support the "pundits" call of $5000.....lol. But some very sharp Elliot Wavers I follow have had approx $2400-$2600 or so on their radar for about 6-9 months now. Forget "instincts." Go by the charts, seasonal demand, and other tried and true methods. As long as the SM is not the #1 dog, gold is fully unleashed, especially in a time of economic stress and crisis. Seems a lot like the 1977-1980 period again. Gold and gold mining stocks can do just fine in recessions and even depressions....witness 1929-1936, 1970-1974, 1977-1980, 2000-2003, 2009-2011.
As far as holding or not? That's up to your personal goals, overall financial status, risk assessment, and other factors. It certainly would have made sense to take some profits off the table once into the $1650-$1750 range.
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"A dog breaks your heart only one time and that is when they pass on". Unknown
Buy, sell, and trade ....and keep swimming in the hobby of Kings. Graciously, if possible. As HomeRunHall once put it: " go long on gold ".
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