Slightly coinfused - Clarification Needed.
Coinscratch
Posts: 9,929 ✭✭✭✭✭
The first coin is in ms67 and the second ms68. And so I need help understanding why. Clearly the 68 has a better strike but it also has marks above the eye and on the nose. Does this mean it could have went higher in grade w/o marks and/or spots?
Or is there a tolerance for deep cuts & scrapes? Or possibly the eye appeal can over ride a few blemishes?
Apparently, there are a lot of details that all flow together when assigning a grade. Okay, a whole lot!
Your answers will certainly help in assembling my next order - Much appreciated - Stay Well.
MS67
MS68
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I'm concerned about all the discoloration on the 67. Are they gonna grow? The 68 bag marks doesn't detract from clearer fields. IMO. Peace
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The 68 is a much better struck coin; very hammered strike; having said that I would not buy either coin due to all the rinse spots on both coins but especially the 67 example.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
If you are smart you will just ignore the grades on common date coins like this, pick out a nice looking raw example, put it in an album and be happy you spent little or nothing doing so.
IMHO, What you're saying goes against the grain. And I understand what you're saying coming from a collectors perspective but I have zero interest in looking at modern/common coins in an album besides it ruins the reverses.
Have you seen what a 2005-09 lists for in a 68? I want to find and grade top pops for the moderns of my Lincoln set. Unless I get really lucky I'm sure the 1909-58 and probably higher will have to be purchased at this point in time.
I would imagine in 1936 that 1926 coins were considered common as well, same would apply in 1836 or 900 BC for that matter.
What am I missing here? Is it because they're zinc and will never really matter? Or do you think the market someday will appreciate these? Maybe after we've left this planet and coins were a thing of the past...
Play the "I'll get a 68" game with moderns if you like but be prepared for big disappointments and considerable expense.
Also, I don't care "what it lists for" I only care about what real buyers with CASH will pay for it right now.
The second coin has a better strike/detail, and not as many spots....Cheers, RickO
Good luck.
@291fifth . $40.01 per coin doesn’t seem like a lot if your right more often than your not, hence my original questions. And as I thought you might say, what is the current market value. That is a very valid question, not that it would deter my decisions very much, after all I am after a set. But I would also like to make some money along the way.
If I sold one for half of the list price I would still be way ahead of your game, no?
percentage wise that is. :-)
Color me confused as well. My experience is mostly with wheats, but I would expect a 68 from our hosts to look near perfect (which that one does not) and I would send the 67 back under the grade guarantee because of the multiple black spots. JMHO
https://pcgs.com/setregistry/showcase/2819
First problem - your grading with photos. Coins in hand look a heck of a lot different and as the saying goes, Luster forgives a lot.
Second problem- again related to using photos to grade- Photos tend to bring out and highlight the worst of a coin.
If you are going to run thru true view imagines I think the grading consistently will show but then again, if there are not a lot of pictures to compare - well, its hard to compare! But you can find dates with a lot to look thru and go from there. Remember, grading is Subjective!
WS
I have a few thoughts here. I'll start by pointing out a few things. First, I'm not into moderns, particularly not high-grade ones that are worth nothing unless they're in plastic. That said, I do find some recent Lincoln attractive in high grade. They can come with highly attractive color, and combined with nearly perfect surfaces, they can be nice. I'm not paying up for them, but I don't hate them as a coin. Second, some of what I'm saying may come off as condescending. My intention is to make you think and consider my point. In the end, it's your money and you can buy whatever you please, but just think about what you're saying versus what you're doing.
Now, the two coins you showed. The top coin is covered in spots and is unattractive. I don't know enough about modern Lincolns to opine on whether spots show up after grading, but either way, it's not a coin I'd want. As for the second coin, keep in mind the deep cut you're seeing as a gash on the screen is a fraction of a millimeter in hand. A cent is 19mm in diameter, and that cut is not 5% of the diameter (~1mm). Combined with the fact that it's in an area that has some texture to the design, I imagine it's trivial in hand. The marks on the nose are even smaller to the extent that I had to see the much larger image on the PCGS website (https://www.pcgs.com/cert/38937349) to see them. Anything at that level of zoom will look like a major flaw. I'm still not thrilled with the coin overall--it has some spotting--but it's certainly the more attractive of the two, with better color, lustre, and strike. So there--my opinion of these two coins.
Now to the advice corner. You wrote:
There are a few things to unpack here. First, you say that you don't want to look at coins in an album, nor do you want to store them there. That's fine, because there are other holders, including slab lookalikes, that will store your coins without the grading fee being required. So here, you have to decide if you meant to say that you just don't like albums, or that you care specifically about the holder and the number on it. There's a huge difference here. You say that you want to find and grade top pops. Does that mean if you find a coin that you like, but it doesn't grade out as desired, it's gone? Again, are you collecting the coin or the number? You can choose either one, but be sure you know which one it is.
Yes, coins we now call classics were once moderns. But there was also a time--most of history--when grades were much more generalized than they are today. A truly superior example (think the very best from the top collections) did indeed command a major premium, but price swings due to microscopic differences didn't exist. Here's the trick. Crack out some of Eliasberg's best. They'll still be worth a fortune. Crack out a top-pop modern. It's value is almost completely gone. There are still classics (particularly more recent ones) whose value can lie in a grade point one way or the other, but back when they were modern, they weren't graded. A nice one was a nice one, and enough time has passed that few truly exceptional new ones are likely to show up. Now, so many are produced with much higher general quality that the average grade out of the mint is simply much higher (some random modern issues that for whatever reason all came out terrible notwithstanding). Plus, as nice ones get sent in routinely, it's more likely that the population of high-grade coins will go up for current moderns than for classics. I'm not a fan of paying a huge increase for an imperceptible difference in quality for any coin (I love a high-end example of the lower of two grades that differ by a major price jump), but certainly not for a series where the value is entirely due to the label.
Now, in your original post and replies, you've asked about grading, switched to viewing, and then pivoted to money. Your original question on grading on its own is just fine. But at the same time, if you're planning to spend a significant amount of money to grade coins with little intrinsic value (not metal content, but value when ungraded), I'd suggest a lot more research into how the coins are graded than just that one pair of sample coins. If you're after the profit and/or having the best coin PCGS has graded, good luck. It's not my cup of tea, but if you can make money at it or enjoy the label, great. If you just want to collect coins, you can save a ton of money and still have a wonderful collection of coins. Lincolns aren't personally my series, but that doesn't mean someone else shouldn't be able to enjoy them. Just be sure you know what you're after before sinking a lot of money into it.
The fields are clearer on the 68 and the color isn't splotchy. The mark above the eye was probably overlooked and not being a high dollar coin the graders probably didn't spend a lot of time with the coin. The 68 isn't bad but there is probably better ones out there. The 67 is loaded with black spots and the color varies in spots. Not one I would consider buying. The 68 is probably at its max grade with or without the mark above the eye. The 67 doesn't deserve a grade that high IMHO.
"A dog breaks your heart only one time and that is when they pass on". Unknown
Actually, the problem was/is I still don’t have the proper equipment to take photos and I sent these coins in based mostly on eye appeal and yes luster. Once the pics come back I then get to see in detail what I missed before. And it’s quite amazing how much I miss. So that does answer one question. Eye appeal is very forgiving. But, what does that mean, subjective?
Okay, and so the problem is, now i’m looking closer at coins before sending in and I have some from the early 70’s that look amazing from arms length right, but up close and under a loupe the flaws are there. And from previous experiences I feel the graders are more strict on those. But that is based solely on the few orders I have placed and the obvious minimal experience I do have.
All well indeed and thanks for your response. You are correct in that the gash above the eye, well I never even saw it before sending it in. And if I did it wouldn’t have changed my mind because it looks that good to me. But yes I am into the number more than the coin to a degree when it comes to these moderns. Because that is the driver for most set builders and profit is on my mind. Now obviously I too greatly appreciate an AU graded old quarter and it’s inherent beauty much more than a modern ms68.
But I’m not there just yet.
As a beginner Lincolns seem to make more sense and seem to have a higher value than other denominations of the same eras.
In short, the more I learn the more I learn to appreciate.
I totally agree with all you mentioned Mike and yes there are better ones out there and you can bet your bottom dollar I’ll be finding them 😎.
One of the most reassuring factors is that the mint made billions of them. So when I see that only one is graded at 68, well...:)
I think what everyone is telling you is that getting top pops on moderns is not an easy game and your more likely to put more money in than you get out all said and done. Take just these two, the 68 sells for what around $50-$60, the 67 you'll be lucky to sell for $10. That's $70 in (best case) at a cost of $80, not the way to make money unless you get lots more 68's, or better than 67's.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
I think I'd continue to do research to understand what kind of money you're talking about. It's rare to simply walk your way into free money, and at the very least, you're looking at a task that, to be profitable, could take an enormous amount of time. At that point, profit is only based on the money you bring in, not a consideration of the value of your time. And unless you get to the point where you really get consistent grades, you're probably going to spend a lot of money grading coins that net you a loss in the hopes of getting a coin that makes what becomes a modest profit at best. If you want the coins, buy the coins you want. If you want the profit, study a lot more and then think it through.
Are you familiar with expected value? If not, in short, is the probability of each outcome multiplied by its value to tell you the statistical value of something you're doing. If you put down $100 on red in roulette, you have an 18/38 chance of doubling your money (ending up with $100), and a 20/38 chance of losing your money (ending up with $0). So your expected value is 18/38200 + 20/380 = $94.74. This means every $100 bet, on average, results in you having $94.74, which means a loss of $5.26.
You can do the same thing with grading. Yes, you can change the odds by being a better grader, but take a look at the pop reports. Maybe a certain date cent will jump from $50 to $1000 between grades. But if the pops show that 1 out of 1000 coins get the higher grade, the expected value of the coin you send in (disregarding your grading skill, and assuming it won't be a lower grade) is 50.999 + 1000.001 = $50.95. Now maybe there's one grade lower worth $10 with 25% odds, so it's 10.25 + 50.749 + 1000*.001 = $40.95. How much are you spending to get each coin graded. How sure are you that you can at least get the $50 grade? How sure are you that the $50 grade is really worth $50, and the price guide isn't just optimistic and the coin is really worth $25?
Something to think about...
There is no easy money in numismatics. There are many, many ways to lose money in numismatics.
There are some very constructive comments here, read them twice.
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You need to go through many coins and have a very good eye for grading.
Modern cents can be a challenge to grade until you develop a keen eye for it.
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Even if your spotted cent graded a 69 there is a good chance there would be few buyers
and they most likely would not pay top dollar for it.
Don't send stuff with distractions, chances are you will not be happy with the outcome.
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You can get good money for a quality top pop but they are a needle in a haystack and
you will earn every penny of your profits.
Very good advice sir. I guess at the end of the day I would be very happy with the grade regardless of the value today. I don't expect to get rich doing this and I am however having a great time trying
Wisdom indeed, and for the record I am currently upside down
but not by much.