Fed cuts rate to near zero, what this will do to gold price?
jt88
Posts: 2,970 ✭✭✭✭✭
Are we going to see 2000 in gold soon?
1
jt88
Posts: 2,970 ✭✭✭✭✭
jt88
Posts: 2,970 ✭✭✭✭✭
jt88
Posts: 2,970 ✭✭✭✭✭
jt88
Posts: 2,970 ✭✭✭✭✭
Are we going to see 2000 in gold soon?
Comments
Even though that would mean my current gold purchases would go down in value, I’d be happy for it selfishly. I am fortunate to be in a good cash position so I’d buy some of the gold I wanted to buy back then when I was much younger and early in my career.
TurtleCat Gold Dollars
Usually, such a move by the Fed would strengthen, not weaken the price of gold. However, obviously, these are not normal times, so who knows?
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I agree with you. I was surprised gold actually went down last week. So maybe the old rules won’t apply right now? But it would be nice if it goes down, though. I thought it was a bit high anyway and needed a correction.
TurtleCat Gold Dollars
I am getting more inquire about my gold coin but I am not going to sell them cheap. LOL
The gold price is up 40 point right now. It will be interested to see how high it can go. I believe gold price will go up for the year.
That should guarantee a drop
As of a moment ago, it was only up $16.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Dumb move. It will have about a 40 minute effect on the market tomorrow. What a waste of a rate cut.
The move wasn’t made primarily to boost the market.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Correct. It was done to provide liquidity. This will be a global effort. It may provide a temp prop for the market but I think this was already baked in on Thursday
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
It's still a waste of a rate cut unless one needed credit to load up on TP.
Market is down 1000 right now. Circuit breaker tripped on the Dow.
That misunderstands the liquidity issue.
The thing is no one knows how bad this virus do to the economic at this point. The market might drop 40 to 50% from the high by year end or by early next year.
Liquidity doesn't concern me. The effect on the market does.
Stocks will be on sale for a while it would seem. I still think the damage from our response to this will end up being worse than the virus. Of course we won’t know until it’s over.
Unemployment is going to rise meaning hourly and low wage workers are going to feel it most, especially when they can’t pay their rent or bills. Marginal companies will fold due to lack of customers.
If we do this for every virus that comes out, god help us all. There’s a new one every year.
Big question is why this virus? We’ve had Zika, H1N1, MERS, SARS, Ebola (in limited locations), even AIDS could be on this list. No major action from any governments. If this was US only I’d say election year, but this is worldwide.
Then you might spend about 5 minutes thinking about what effect liquidity has on the market. Put another way, when Bank of America goes belly up, how do you think the market performs?
Sheer numbers. Ebola, Zika and MERS had a very limited number of cases.
H1N1 was the only one on your list that was widespread, but even then the total number of deaths were only around 10,000 and they were spread out over a longer period of time. Although I don't think that's the real reason.
I think the real reason relates to the way media and social media have exploded in the 10 years since H1N1.
I think you are correct, although it depends on how you value human life. It also depends on what degree of self-deception you can engage in to convince yourself that these actions actually save lives. We will never know how many people were saved or lost due to the actions taken.
U.S. stock futures hit their downlimit before daybreak in Singapore. The dollar sank more than 2% against the yen.
Nikkei futures fell 6%. Australia's benchmark stock index fell 7% in the first quarter-hour of trade. U.S. crude fell 5% to under $30 per barrel.
The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 100 basis points on Sunday to a target range of 0% to 0.25%. It said it would expand its balance sheet by at least $700 billion in coming weeks.
"(The) market is wondering what the Fed knows that the rest of us don’t," said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Hermes in New York.
"Is COVID-19 an even bigger deal than we think?"
mark
https://news.yahoo.com/dollar-slips-fed-leads-world-215312464.html
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
H1N1 killed 150-500k worldwide per CDC estimates and infected 1 billion
Hmmm...I stand corrected. Incomplete internet search. Looking too locally at U.S. deaths. My apologies.
Those wild swings in gold price happened in 2008 before $1,800 OZ. Could be a good sign for gold?
Probably the typical over-reaction we've been seeing the last couple of weeks. Probably down 1500 or so then back up 1000 on Tuesday. Rinse. Repeat.
In fact, the dollar is already rebounding and gold/silver sliding back. With Dow futures locked, can't be sure what they are doing.
It could. But that will be less about the virus and more about the oil price war.
I think we will have a lot of two days down and one day ups in our future........trapping longs. Anyways it’s what it smells like to me
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
It's possible, even probable. But, if it were that obvious, we'd all be rich. We could just as easily get a short trap.
I'm happy to just watch for now.
When I pay my CC bill they'll be plenty solvent.
Despite all of the pooh poohing all over the net about no impending recession, there may be something else going on.
As far as I can tell, the people and businesses who are having "liquidity issues" don't have access to Fed Funds, so count me in the "confused" camp.
I do, however, find it very interesting that the Fed is buying mortgage backed securities.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Gold lost steam tonight after the limit down. I think any and all assets are in trouble until the health crisis is settled. Cash is king for sure but with the amount of easing going into the system, I think we'll see a replay of the last financial crisis. Recall gold dropped into the 800's then popped to $1,900 a couple years later. This time the same pop will take us well beyond $2,000 but so too will other assets as well.
They do, indirectly, through the banks. It's the 2009 playbook. The FED buys distressed assets because they can afford to hold then to maturity without the need to mark to market. That preserves bank liquidity that is then available to Main Street.
This is getting interesting....any - and all - predictions, at this time, are pure guesswork. This is a unique situation in which health, finance, politics (local and global) are coalescing into the perfect storm. Hang on, this isn't a theme park joyride....Cheers, RickO
For some I imagine this is a magic teacup ride. But overall I think we should expect wild swings for a while as people try to flock to what they consider safe. I think some of this is brought about by social media and the human tendency to follow the crowds. How much? Who knows. The only thing I know/predict is once this is all “over” the world’s various economies will be retooled some and the rising generations will actually consider these things as possible and not just improbable.
TurtleCat Gold Dollars
I hope nobody misconstrues my thoughts. Deaths, while supremely tragic for individuals and families, are only one part of the picture. Many more people will be left with long-term health effects, reduced pulmonary capacity, susceptibility to future infections, etc.
As a physician, of course I value human life. That's hard-wired within me at a basic level, but I value quality of life even more. I also value human living, and we're going to be missing out on a good part of that for a while it seems. Graduations, weddings, parties, education, sports, theater, and basic human interaction - these are the things we live for! We can all tolerate a short-term disruption in these activities, but they are important. Keeping all kids our of school for 2 months......... that has a real effect, both to their education and social lives (they actually do learn a little while they're there). Poverty, depression, hopelessness..... these things kill people too, and we're inadvertently going to be creating plenty of that by our response.
My hospital, like most others, has now cancelled all elective surgeries. That sounds good and smart, but I now have an entire OR crew who will be home, not getting a paycheck. The vast majority of them (and everyone else) lives paycheck to paycheck.
Volatility will be the new normal for a while, it seems. Don't forget, some financial sectors will see a tremendous boon from this.
I wish the FED would talk to the US Mint and get their prices down. They're hurting the hobby and golden goose. Or, is it those AUthorized purchasers ?
Look to a disruption in the Silver Eagle Proof program, like in 2009. This kinda policy irks me. Okay back to monetary policy.
Dunno about gold, last silver price I checked today it had slumped to $12.89.
Right now, no one wants to buy anything.
Maybe it's a good opportunity to buy back into stamp collecting?
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
$2000 ? Turn south keep going
I am sure gold will go back up. There is no way after the fed cut it kept going down. It will end green for the year
Well-stated. People don't like to think that they are trading things off.
Gold seems to be fluctuating a lot today. Platinum is the lowest I’ve seen in a long time. I would guess we’ll continue to see fluctuations through the next couple of weeks. I imagine silver’s change will affect the lower cost collectibles faster than gold’s change right now.
TurtleCat Gold Dollars
Did you guys see what the france do?
All non-essential movement to be banned from Tuesday miday for 15 days: residents must stay at home.
I think that's little bit too much.
recession is for sure but hopefully it will bounce back fast.
One thing that’s good to remember during these challenging times is that people are very resilient overall. Once the shock wears off, people get down to business and do what it takes to see it through. It happens every time. I expect it again.
TurtleCat Gold Dollars
Actually, believe or not I think gold acted well today in this market when you consider how much the rest of the market down. Gold only down 0.97% while S&500 down 11.98%, NASDAQ down 12.32% and Dow down 12.93%. When the market bounce back gold will bounce back fast
Bay area six counties will be stay home.
https://www.kron4.com/news/6-bay-area-counties-orders-residents-to-stay-at-home-to-reduce-coronavirus-spread/
Liquidity is all that matters here. It's all that mattered in 1929 and 2008 too. Gold and PMs get hit with everything else until things settled. In 2008 gold came back first and recovered the fastest. Even in 2008 following the March $1033 high gold make 2 later excursions back to $900 in July and Sept. The bottom came in October 2008. Gold only spent 2 months in the trough of sub-$900 (Sept/Oct/Nov). Oil bottomed in Dec 2008. The SM didn't bottom until March 2009. Despite all the liquidity injections to boost the SM from 2009-2011, it was PMs and miners that were best performers (similarly miners in 1932-1936...and gold too had it not been fixed at $35/oz). Gold advanced from $681 to $1923 from Oct 2008 - Nov 2011....almost a triple. Silver did about 6X. The SM? About 60% in that same period. The USDollar was a safe haven as were bonds. Eventually the PM sector became a safe haven from the 2009-2011 banking bailout.
Fwiw, Armstrong's 8.6 yr Economic business confidence model was calling for a peak for gold and heavy weakness in the stock markets in mid-January. It was delayed 2 months. Came in March 2020. This 8.6 yr cycle has called all the major moves in gold for the past 20+ yrs....and fairly accurately has timed SM peaks with 0-9 months. 2020.05....2011.45....2002.85....1994.25 etc. When I was around here frequently in late 2015 I mentioned the 4.3 yr Armstrong "bottom" in gold at 2015.75 (Nov/Dec 2015 was the actual bottom )....and potentially a pretty good 4.3 yrs to follow into January 2020. There it was....and there it went. Gold's back-test of the $1700 level was right in the middle of the Aug-Oct 2011 trading range. Hard to ask for more after a $655 rally. Gold has broken out into bull markets in other currencies though.
No idea how long this shakeout will take. And rare coins will be challenged as well as they have been during any recessionary period. Gold has several support points still ahead at $1440, 1400, 1375. A move under all of those would certainly muck things up. Note that oil and commodities in general look to be in the final washout stage of 2007-202X. It only makes it harder for gold (and particularly silver) to get traction. Silver will tend to follow the stock market in a recession - recall 1999-2003 when silver went slightly down while gold was up over 50%. Gold to silver ratio up at a whacky 126-1. That certainly will fuel silver for a massive rally back to the norm of 45-65 GSR when the time comes.
@roadrunner
Brian, it takes a pandemic to bring you out?
Good go see you post
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......