Black Swan Event

ctf_error_coins · March 14, 2020 7:58AM

I have heard the term "Black Swan Event" many times in the last few weeks.

Yesterday I heard the term "one and a half black swan events". I Agree.

What is a Black Swan?
A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, their severe impact, and the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight.

Be safe out there. Make rational decessions. Make smart financial moves.

This event IS changing the world.

Your decisions today will change your life.

Be Safe.

ctf_error_coins · March 14, 2020 8:19AM

ctf_error_coins · March 15, 2020 7:52AM

This is real people, Get ready for a recession.

Zoins · March 15, 2020 7:54AM

Maybe two quarters of low earnings?

ctf_error_coins · March 15, 2020 7:59AM

@Zoins said:
Maybe two quarters of low earnings?

Airlines, Hotels, Restaurants, Shows, Tipped workers, Cruise Ships, all the supporting staff and businesses have close to ZERO earnings.

It could be a quick recession if a cure is developed.

Higashiyama · March 15, 2020 8:06AM

This may be a black swan event, but it should not have been. The fact of a pandemic is not the black swan -- such an event is expected to occur, and can be more-or-less planned for. If there is a black swan, it is the fact that in spite of the WHO, CDC, local health departments, etc, we were totally unprepared. (The US was slow to react; the Europeans were woefully slow to react -- compare case counts in South Korea and Italy to assess the benefits of a well coordinated professional response)

ctf_error_coins · March 15, 2020 8:09AM

Three things...

There was an obvious stock market bubble, Look at a 12-year chart.

This COVID-19 happened in China months ago and we are now just getting to it??? This could have been foreseen.

Oil war between Saudi and Russia.

Stay Safe.

Jimnight · March 15, 2020 8:52AM

@ErrorsOnCoins
Thank you for your thoughts .

yspsales · March 15, 2020 8:56AM

I made around 35% annually from the depths of the '08 crash.

The stock market was over valued in 2016... at least for finding value plays.

A few isolated cases of no brainer buys... Exxon and other oil majors, Halliburton and Schlumberger... (within reason)

But, alas, I cashed out and mostly paid off my house. Debt freedom is soooo close baby!

Buried my dad last week and guesstimate his assets he made about 2% in this months correction.

Mom was worried about the $9k she lost in Duke and BB&T stock.... while my dad is still riding the bond bull market, even in death. It's a wash or a small profit for them...

Wake me up at Dow 15,000

Jimnight · March 15, 2020 9:10AM

@yspsales
Sorry to hear about your dad.

TheRegulator · March 15, 2020 9:11AM

This is not a black swan event. Unforeseen- yes. Black swan- not even close. Amazing that people are actually wishing and hoping for a recession and hard times. The motivation for this is obvious.

Thank heavens the U.S. was ahead of the curve and did not listen to organizations like WHO. Lives were undoubtedly saved and panic lessened. Critics went from saying we shouldn't be securing our nation to dishonestly saying we didn't do anything. Can't make this stuff up.

There will be short-term pain for most of us and permanent pain for others. Hopefully this is a wake up call and blessing in disguise.

mannie gray · March 15, 2020 9:40AM

This thread will go poof quickly.

Justacommeman · March 15, 2020 10:04AM

@TheRegulator said:
This is not a black swan event. Unforeseen- yes. Black swan- not even close. Amazing that people are actually wishing and hoping for a recession and hard times. The motivation for this is obvious.

Thank heavens the U.S. was ahead of the curve and did not listen to organizations like WHO. Lives were undoubtedly saved and panic lessened. Critics went from saying we shouldn't be securing our nation to dishonestly saying we didn't do anything. Can't make this stuff up.

There will be short-term pain for most of us and permanent pain for others. Hopefully this is a wake up call and blessing in disguise.

You got to be kidding. We still don’t have tests. We have done a lousy job in preparing for this. The US has been ill prepared and the plan until Monday was it will blow over soon. Hope for best was our plan.

The world needs look to Korea to how on how to handle.

Your post is insulting

mark

ChopmarkedTrades · March 15, 2020 10:15AM

@Justacommeman said:

@TheRegulator said:
This is not a black swan event. Unforeseen- yes. Black swan- not even close. Amazing that people are actually wishing and hoping for a recession and hard times. The motivation for this is obvious.

Thank heavens the U.S. was ahead of the curve and did not listen to organizations like WHO. Lives were undoubtedly saved and panic lessened. Critics went from saying we shouldn't be securing our nation to dishonestly saying we didn't do anything. Can't make this stuff up.

There will be short-term pain for most of us and permanent pain for others. Hopefully this is a wake up call and blessing in disguise.

You got to be kidding. We still don’t have tests. We have done a lousy job in preparing for this. The US has been ill prepared and the plan until Monday was it will blow over soon. Hope for best was our plan.

The world needs look to Korea to how to handle.

Your post is insulting

mark

US prep for this event was a complete joke.

Justacommeman · March 15, 2020 10:22AM

@ChopmarkedTrades said:

@Justacommeman said:

@TheRegulator said:
This is not a black swan event. Unforeseen- yes. Black swan- not even close. Amazing that people are actually wishing and hoping for a recession and hard times. The motivation for this is obvious.

Thank heavens the U.S. was ahead of the curve and did not listen to organizations like WHO. Lives were undoubtedly saved and panic lessened. Critics went from saying we shouldn't be securing our nation to dishonestly saying we didn't do anything. Can't make this stuff up.

There will be short-term pain for most of us and permanent pain for others. Hopefully this is a wake up call and blessing in disguise.

You got to be kidding. We still don’t have tests. We have done a lousy job in preparing for this. The US has been ill prepared and the plan until Monday was it will blow over soon. Hope for best was our plan.

The world needs look to Korea to how to handle.

Your post is insulting

mark

US prep for this event was a complete joke.

There was none. Those of us who travel for a living have been discussing this for awhile. It’s was like are you kidding me? I was in China until Dec 20. I was in Milan until Feb 19. I was in Paris and London last week. I was free to come and go as I pleased with no questions asked. No temps taken.

We have no idea how many people in the US are infected. We have done next to no testing. It’s almost as if that was the plan. If we don’t test then we don’t have a problem.

The UK is suggesting no travel to the US now.

Only just now are they screening passengers arriving at US airports from overseas and it’s disaster as it was an ill prepared roll out. Mass confusion.They had months to get ahead of this.

mark

davewesen · March 15, 2020 10:26AM

... and I thought I was going to see some cool error coin, like triple struck with 3 different denominations and 2 countries...

unspendable · March 15, 2020 10:29AM

I think our country is doing all it can do under the circumstances but hindsight is 2020

DIMEMAN · March 15, 2020 10:30AM

@Justacommeman said:

@ChopmarkedTrades said:

@Justacommeman said:

@TheRegulator said:
This is not a black swan event. Unforeseen- yes. Black swan- not even close. Amazing that people are actually wishing and hoping for a recession and hard times. The motivation for this is obvious.

Thank heavens the U.S. was ahead of the curve and did not listen to organizations like WHO. Lives were undoubtedly saved and panic lessened. Critics went from saying we shouldn't be securing our nation to dishonestly saying we didn't do anything. Can't make this stuff up.

There will be short-term pain for most of us and permanent pain for others. Hopefully this is a wake up call and blessing in disguise.

You got to be kidding. We still don’t have tests. We have done a lousy job in preparing for this. The US has been ill prepared and the plan until Monday was it will blow over soon. Hope for best was our plan.

The world needs look to Korea to how to handle.

Your post is insulting

mark

US prep for this event was a complete joke.

There was none. Those of us who travel for a living have been discussing this for awhile. It’s was like are you kidding me? I was in China until Dec 20. I was in Milan until Feb 19. I was in Paris and London last week. I was free to come and go as I pleased with no questions asked. No temps taken.

We have no idea how many people in the US are infected. We have done next to no testing. It’s almost as if that was the plan. If we don’t test then we don’t have a problem.

The UK is suggesting no travel to the US now.

Only just now are they screening passengers arriving at US airports from overseas and it’s disaster as it was an ill prepared roll out. They had months to get ahead of this.

mark

Fake news here Mark. I know what your underlying message is here and you are dead wrong.

Baley · March 15, 2020 10:47AM

are you kidding me? I was in China until Dec 20. I was in Milan until Feb 19. I was in Paris and London last week. I was free to come and go as I pleased with no questions asked. No temps taken.

mark

Surely you have sufficient self-awareness to know how this sounds to most of the rest of us, right?

bolivarshagnasty · March 15, 2020 10:49AM

@Baley said:
are you kidding me? I was in China until Dec 20. I was in Milan until Feb 19. I was in Paris and London last week. I was free to come and go as I pleased with no questions asked. No temps taken.

mark

Surely you have sufficient self-awareness to know how this sounds to most of the rest of us, right?

For the last ten years, Mark has spoken of his world wide travels to Europe and the East. Don't know why you would question that now.

Justacommeman · March 15, 2020 10:55AM

@Baley said:
are you kidding me? I was in China until Dec 20. I was in Milan until Feb 19. I was in Paris and London last week. I was free to come and go as I pleased with no questions asked. No temps taken.

mark

Surely you have sufficient self-awareness to know how this sounds to most of the rest of us, right?

Sure. But I still haven’t been able to get tested. Hopefully next week. My colleague that only traveled the Milan part of the trip was tested on Friday in NY. He will find out on Monday or Tuesday.

This was the text he sent me.

“I had such a disheartening moment to see how the corona virus testing is being handled

so I went to the doctor early this week and he took my temperature and said I can’t have corona because I don’t have a fever .. than I still I felt a little sick so today I call My doctor he blows me off said to call public service number 311 I call 311 service wait on hold for 1 hour than they “ interview “ me to see if I deserve a test .. than a few hours later someone else calls me back. They tell me I can choose between one of two facilities. in all of nyc one was backed up for 2 weeks and the other was on 97th street

I take a car service to the facility. They test me and say will let you know by Monday and if we don’t call you assume it’s negative ...and than I leave

are you serious like we live in Nigeria ?“

He has since gotten sicker and will probably be admitted to the hospital today.

I’ve been self quarantined the better part of this week. I feel fine but who the hell knows

m

Justacommeman · March 15, 2020 10:59AM

From our top infectious expert in the US

https://news.yahoo.com/america-prepare-hunker-down-even-143127875.html

Baley · March 15, 2020 11:02AM

Best wishes to all and to you specifically Mark.

Justacommeman · March 15, 2020 11:07AM

@Baley said:
Best wishes to all and to you specifically Mark.

Thank you very much. I’m accumulating best wishes.

m

Downtown1974 · March 15, 2020 11:25AM

It will be interesting to see how our infrastructure can hold up to the surge of cyber traffic due to people working from home...plus students working on-line.

Zoins · March 15, 2020 11:38AM

@ErrorsOnCoins said:
Three things...

There was an obvious stock market bubble, Look at a 12-year chart.

Note to self: whenever you start to tell non-stock people "the market is unbelievably good", it's time for you to sell!

keets · March 15, 2020 12:19PM

We have no idea how many people in the US are infected. We have done next to no testing. It’s almost as if that was the plan. If we don’t test then we don’t have a problem.

the insidious nature of the past 3+ years is that Mark's reply is called "FAKE NEWS" almost immediately. things in America have deteriorated so badly that our News outlets are distrusted, yet regimes like China and Russia put out news that is believed with no questions asked. Russia has only nine reported cases while they border the source of the outbreak?? China sat on this at first, until it could no longer be contained or hidden, and now we believe them when they tell us they have it under control and new cases are declining while the rest of the World sees an increase??

earlier in the week South Korea had tested almost a quarter of a million people and America had tested less than 2,000, and that's decried as fake news. welcome to the new reality.

many don't know, or are unwilling to acknowledge that the CDC has been de-funded during the past three year. as we sit here, the DOJ is before the Federal Judiciary to take more money away. how is it that the Nation that is on the cutting edge of most technology lags behind everyone?? I know why, because as recently as two weeks ago or President expected that this would be gone "like a Miracle."

stay safe, but be realistic and hopefully, honest, about what's happening.

ironmanl63 · March 15, 2020 12:31PM

Can you say POOOOF!!!!!

ElmerFusterpuck · March 15, 2020 12:51PM

Threads like this do expose the good we have here on the forum, along with the borderline sinister, absolutely refusing to get out of their bubble.

The "fake news" reply mantra is beyond ****ing tiresome. Part of that thinking is what got us into this unprepared mess.

3, 2, 1, .5 poof.

ironmanl63 · March 15, 2020 1:14PM

@ElmerFusterpuck said:
Threads like this do expose the good we have here on the forum, along with the borderline sinister, absolutely refusing to get out of their bubble.

The "fake news" reply mantra is beyond ****ing tiresome. Part of that thinking is what got us into this unprepared mess.

3, 2, 1, .5 poof.

There is more than one bubble! I'm not saying I'm just saying.

logger7 · March 15, 2020 1:47PM

@keets said:
We have no idea how many people in the US are infected. We have done next to no testing. It’s almost as if that was the plan. If we don’t test then we don’t have a problem.

the insidious nature of the past 3+ years is that Mark's reply is called "FAKE NEWS" almost immediately. things in America have deteriorated so badly that our News outlets are distrusted, yet regimes like China and Russia put out news that is believed with no questions asked. Russia has only nine reported cases while they border the source of the outbreak?? China sat on this at first, until it could no longer be contained or hidden, and now we believe them when they tell us they have it under control and new cases are declining while the rest of the World sees an increase??

earlier in the week South Korea had tested almost a quarter of a million people and America had tested less than 2,000, and that's decried as fake news. welcome to the new reality.

many don't know, or are unwilling to acknowledge that the CDC has been de-funded during the past three year. as we sit here, the DOJ is before the Federal Judiciary to take more money away. how is it that the Nation that is on the cutting edge of most technology lags behind everyone?? I know why, because as recently as two weeks ago or President expected that this would be gone "like a Miracle."

stay safe, but be realistic and hopefully, honest, about what's happening.

The testing needs to ramp up substantially and fast. NYC and many schools north of there are closed, public gatherings, cancelled. A week ago Azar said that they had sent out tests but did not have a way to get the results back. https://tinyurl.com/vp9auvm

Fortunately they have a top expert who is in charge now.

If the healthcare system gets overwhelmed with new patients, could they even handle it? People may have to go out of network if the system gets swamped. https://tinyurl.com/rpav2wv

I'm just trying to build my own immune system through exercise outdoors for when the worst of it hits. But I'm scheduled to work 40 hours this week in a home improvement company with several customers wanting small jobs done too.

SanctionII · March 15, 2020 1:53PM

Best wishes to you Mark; and to everyone else.

ctf_error_coins · March 15, 2020 4:08PM

Wow, I just got back from my mom's estate sale.

All my family wanted hugs and I told them they were being foolish. I refused.

They looked at me in amazement as I sprayed Lysol on every bill I got. I told them they were burning cash in China literally.

Be safe.

Be smart.

Think about others.

Justacommeman · March 15, 2020 4:22PM

@keets said:
We have no idea how many people in the US are infected. We have done next to no testing. It’s almost as if that was the plan. If we don’t test then we don’t have a problem.

the insidious nature of the past 3+ years is that Mark's reply is called "FAKE NEWS" almost immediately. things in America have deteriorated so badly that our News outlets are distrusted, yet regimes like China and Russia put out news that is believed with no questions asked. Russia has only nine reported cases while they border the source of the outbreak?? China sat on this at first, until it could no longer be contained or hidden, and now we believe them when they tell us they have it under control and new cases are declining while the rest of the World sees an increase??

earlier in the week South Korea had tested almost a quarter of a million people and America had tested less than 2,000, and that's decried as fake news. welcome to the new reality.

many don't know, or are unwilling to acknowledge that the CDC has been de-funded during the past three year. as we sit here, the DOJ is before the Federal Judiciary to take more money away. how is it that the Nation that is on the cutting edge of most technology lags behind everyone?? I know why, because as recently as two weeks ago or President expected that this would be gone "like a Miracle."

stay safe, but be realistic and hopefully, honest, about what's happening.

Well someone already let me know “who” said that. I didn’t see it because I have had him blocked for awhile. He’s quarantined forever to me

m

Justacommeman · March 15, 2020 4:24PM

@SanctionII said:
Best wishes to you Mark; and to everyone else.

Thanks G. Others I was with in Milan have tested positive. They live in Holland. One is in bad shape. We closed our office there the minute the tests came back.

m

MilesWaits · March 15, 2020 4:38PM

I do believe even though this thread may step over the line at times it will remain open.
I think Heather realizes that this is a very important time that we communicate, given this forum has a very balanced (ok, maybe a few exceptions) and well-represented populace.
I appreciate all of your input.
Keep it up!! Stay strong!

Justacommeman · March 15, 2020 4:53PM

@MilesWaits said:
I do believe even though this thread may step over the line at times it will remain open.
I think Heather realizes that this is a very important time that we communicate, given this forum has a very balanced (ok, maybe a few exceptions) and well-represented populace.
I appreciate all of your input.
Keep it up!! Stay strong!

I hope so as I think we will be spending a lot of time together. I’m pretty sure the Stafford Act will be invoked shortly by Executive Order and the county will be shut down for a couple weeks. We have to get people tested. We are way behind the eight ball .

Besides, I think we have run out of coin stuff to talk about. Miles, I want you in my raft on the future forum float trip.

m

MilesWaits · March 15, 2020 4:54PM

Back at ya, Mark! I have mad paddling skills. And have yet to sink.

MFeld · March 15, 2020 5:01PM

@Justacommeman said:

@MilesWaits said:
I do believe even though this thread may step over the line at times it will remain open.
I think Heather realizes that this is a very important time that we communicate, given this forum has a very balanced (ok, maybe a few exceptions) and well-represented populace.
I appreciate all of your input.
Keep it up!! Stay strong!

I hope so as I think we will be spending a lot of time together. I’m pretty sure the Stafford Act will be invoked shortly by Executive Order and the county will be shut down for a couple weeks. We have to get people tested. We are way behind the eight ball .

Besides, I think we have run out of coin stuff to talk about. Miles, I want you in my raft on the future forum float trip.

m

Mark, be well.

We ran out of coin stuff to talk about, many years ago. But that hasn’t stopped us from continuing, over and over and then some.😉

ctf_error_coins · March 15, 2020 5:03PM

California just told anyone 65 and older to self-quarantine now!

logger7 · March 15, 2020 5:07PM

The chart doesn't look good on expansion of the virus: 3.8% fatality rate. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/

Downtown1974 · March 15, 2020 5:15PM

God speed to you, Mark.

Downtown1974 · March 15, 2020 5:25PM

Here in western Mass, schools are closed for three weeks. Restaurants will only be able to do take-out starting on Tuesday. Many grocery stores are shortening their hours to allow cleaning and re-stocking of items. Sobering times for sure. Trying to stay positive, but it’s hard.

Mgarmy · March 15, 2020 5:41PM

The heart of the collecting community is likely in the target age group for high risk for covid 19. Please stay in so we can continue to learn from you. You would not let a coin dealer or media personality do surgery on you, so don’t take medical advice from them. Dr. Fauci is telling the truth, if you hear it from him, it’s the closest to the truth that is known.

Justacommeman · March 15, 2020 6:00PM

The CDC now recommends no gatherings over 50 people and suspending school for eight weeks.

m

Baley · March 15, 2020 7:52PM

Cuz 49 is ok but 51 is not?

Justacommeman · March 15, 2020 7:55PM

@Baley said:
Cuz 49 is ok but 51 is not?

I know. Arbitrary but it is less then 250. Perhaps setting us up for a restriction on domestic flying.

m

ElmerFusterpuck · March 15, 2020 8:18PM

Where I'm at, it was a voluntary work from home email on Friday. Today it's an email that tells me to work from home and don't come back to the office until we tell you to. Very fluid situation, like mercury running down a mirror with an 80 degree slope.

I only have amazing paddleboat skills.

Justacommeman · March 15, 2020 8:50PM

@ElmerFusterpuck said:
Where I'm at, it was a voluntary work from home email on Friday. Today it's an email that tells me to work from home and don't come back to the office until we tell you to. Very, fluid situation, like mercury running down a mirror with an 80 degree slop.

I only have amazing paddleboat skills.

You made the forum float raft as well

m

FilamCoins · March 15, 2020 8:54PM

Reporting from Seattle. City is a ghost town. Schools and libraries closed. Most events and meetings cancelled. Everyone except essential personnel working from home. Some restaurants still open, but patronage down 75%. Some retailers have closed. Groceries out of cleaning supplies. Hospitals at capacity. In terms of stock market, buy oil now at -50%. Dip toes in general market now at -25% and keep buying in -5% to -10% increments if it goes lower. You'll be well rewarded in coming years. Refinance your mortgage if you can get a full point lower. Surprised to see the dip in gold, but when people need cash, they'll sell anything. Stay safe everyone.

topstuf · March 15, 2020 8:56PM

Around here, people have started paying kids to TP their houses.

Black Swan Event

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