Conundrum: When you start believing your own hype about a coin?
Weiss
Posts: 9,942 ✭✭✭✭✭
Several months ago on a popular coin auction site, I came across a piece (one of several similar pieces) from a well known collector. It was one of those in the middle of the herd, maybe 10 or 20 somewhat similar pieces. If you were glancing through the collection and just saw the icon images used in the broader auction info, you'd probably pass it by in favor of the more flashy examples.
But for some reason, I bothered to look at the larger images. And really read the description. And did a little homework on the series and this piece in particular. And I realized it was actually one of the better pieces from this series if you took X and Y into consideration, which the auction house did not.
So I threw a low-ball bid at it...and won. Everything else in that series in that auction went for moon money. The market is quite hot.
And I got it, and it's every bit as nice as I thought it might be. Not what I collect, but not way outside, either.
So I did some additional research and found it might actually be a really, really good piece.
Lived with it for several weeks. Still like it. But now some items closer to focus have come up for sale. They're not as rare as this item, but I don't have them and I've always wanted one.
So I gathered my research. Synthesized it. Verified it. Made some really nice photos, and offered it for sale at moon money.
And got offered 70% of moon money. Multiples of what I just paid for it.
But I'm starting to believe my own hype. Or research, whatever you prefer.
So I declined.
And was just offered 85% of moon money. Offer ending at noon today (Sunday).
And I don't know what to do. Using Tom's Law, I should keep it. But the opportunity to get something closer to my wheelhouse and walk with an extra stack of cash on top is very tempting.
Would you keep the very rare, slightly outside of your wheelhouse item you got for a song? Or would you sell it so you could buy something closer to your core with money to spare?
--Severian the Lame
Comments
Would you be able to appreciate it either as a single item collection or build a collection around it?
At some people all pieces will leave us, or is it that we will leave the pieces? The question is if you are comfortable parting now or not just yet.
SELL!
A: The year they spend more on their library than their coin collection.
A numismatist is judged more on the content of their library than the content of their cabinet.
Flip it.
Use flipped money to buy what you want at a better price.
Flip it if u can make money on it NOW
You never know when you might need a crank operated coin cleaner.
This. Just practice dealer-speak, and stand in front of a mirror to be sure you get your facial expression down pat.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
I can see doing both. It depends on what it is and your personal inclination towards it.
If you feel no great attachment, consider selling it, but also consider if you’d want it more down the road.
The big item that caught my eye your post is that you mentioned it’s much more rare than the pieces you’re going after. How rare are those and what condition are they in?
It should be noted, I have a general inclination to lean towards rare items.
The item I would buy with the proceeds can be had if you're willing to pony up. There are several on the market now, and they change hands with some frequency. Even if I select a top notch example, I'll still have double or even triple the cost of the item I bought as "profit". So I walk with an excellent example of a scarce but not rare item, plus a good amount of money left over. Or I could even keep my powder dry and wait for a superb example, and probably still have money left over.
On the other hand, I'll probably never see another example of the item I have now. And it didn't cost me much. And it's not entirely unrelated--just a more esoteric item.
--Severian the Lame
You can make a substantial profit on something you cared little enough about, that you “threw a low-ball bid at it.”
At the same time, you have an opportunity for something else, about which you said “I've always wanted one.”
Ignore your own hype.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
But isn't there some value to the story itself? "Would you believe I only paid X for this?"
Of course, the opposite is also true: "Would you believe I essentially got this for free, because I sold X and bought this with the proceeds".
--Severian the Lame
If there's interest, I'll post my decision and details after noon today. You can either praise my cunning, or laugh at my stupidity.
--Severian the Lame
I'm certainly curious. And I will agree that getting a cool coin for a song automatically adds value to that coin in my eyes (but nobody else's obviously).
I usually ask myself "Will I miss it a year from now?" It sounds like you won't really miss the coin itself since it doesn't fit your collection, and you'll still have the story to tell.
Please post your decision with details and pics. You really got my curiosity up.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Given what you’ve posted, that the alternatives are regularly available and that you could wait for a better superb, example, I would lean toward keeping it, and delaying a decision until a superb example of what you want is available.
Independent of the rare piece, if you acquired the current, excellent example, would you still want to upgrade to a superb example when it became available. If the answer is “yes” it’s easy for me to say keep the rare piece and wait for a better specimen of the scarce piece. At that time, you may even have the funds to keep both.
I like this post! Would love to see an update, too.
There are several pieces in my collections for which I paid less than 20 dollars. I would not think of selling them for 10x or more. The phrase "go find another" comes to mind. Also, on the lower end of things, doubling or tripling your money doesn't really mean that much.
Personally, I would lean towards keeping it. Sounds like the other item can be had at any time with just money.
Will there be buyers in the future that would offer similar amounts of $?
85% of moon money is still...…… moon money. Sell and get something that fits your collection.
I don't know. Maybe? Maybe even more and at higher prices. Of course, the item I'd want instead may also continue to increase in price.
--Severian the Lame
I would sell. Unless you are 100% sure that you want to go down this path of collecting, take the money and find yourself another bargain. More than half of the fun is the hunt, and for some of us, that is the majority of the fun.
I have been in your shoes, probably with a lot less money involved.
I got the item that fit into my core collection and have never been sorry I did.
I really wonder why psychology people have not yet utilized this forum to study delusional behavior and beliefs.
I really wonder why you've concluded that they haven’t! 😄
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
>
Psi Chi, 1991
--Severian the Lame
At Chambana?
In the moderns thread, I posted how searching for 6 months and 80,000 auctions yielded me a basket full of unattributed and raw VAM's. I slabbed and sold the two AU details coins which covered the costs for reslabbing the other four MS state coins.
Sold them in succession for $1800, $1500, $1200, and a verdigras stained example for $700.
It was a nice haul, that went into other collectibles and coins.
I miss the problem free coins everyday, and regret selling them for no particular purpose than the money or some non specific future purchase.
BST: KindaNewish (3/21/21), WQuarterFreddie (3/30/21), Meltdown (4/6/21), DBSTrader2 (5/5/21) AKA- unclemonkey on Blow Out
Cost is irrelevant. Just ask yourself if you would rather be a buyer or a seller at the offered price.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Is this a humorous example of dealer hype?
Uh-oh.... I hate ultimate logic.
I'm sure it's not hype. If you found a 55DD Lincoln in a roll 50 years ago, is your cost relevant wen it comes to considering a sale?
Yes, it is hype. Cost matters. And if you are using logic, how many 55 double dies were found in rolls or in circulation as late as 1970? How many persons who obtained any 55 double die before 1970 still have them?
Cost matters very much and it is sheer dealer hype to throw a potential/possible customer off that vital fact.
I'm with the sell crowd.
Great transactions with oih82w8, JasonGaming, Moose1913.
As a collector, cost is very relevant to me. Some things I will stretch for and other things are in my collection because of the good price I got it for.
I just picked "50 years" out of the air. Go ahead and change it to whatever is is that won't get you worked up over the unlikelihood of finding the coin in a roll and let me know how your cost is relevant when you go to sell.
I give up. How many?
If that's so, can you explain why?
Nobody who is well-off today is guaranteed the same prosperity tomorrow. What (and how) you spend is always relevant and important. Sellers/vendors want you to forget that.
No tree grows to the sky, and every bubble must burst.
In what context? Do you base your decision to buy a coin on what the person selling it to you paid?
I don't automatically assume that prices will go up and that I will always be made whole in the future. Apparently you do.
The OP indicated that he obtained the item “for a song.” If, as you say, “cost matters very much”, how so? Should the owner be willing to sell for less than he otherwise would, since he’s into the item cheaply? Or should he hold out for full “moon money” since he’s in it cheaply?
I disagree that what Andy said was hype. And I agree with him that cost shouldn’t really matter, even though I understand that to some people, it does.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I wanna know what it is before I offer an opinion! But to be honest...I would sell if I needed the money to add to my core collection.
No, I don't. Not sure where you got that.
I'll ask again- how is the amount you paid for a coin relevant when you go to sell?
Please let us view your song purchase
You obviously assume gains.
The path forward does not always take us where we want to go.
Curious to see what it is. I would take the moon money and flip it!
I have enjoyed collecting coins even more since I narrowed my focus
@Weiss looking forward to hearing your decision.
And I suggest changing the title of this thread to "Coinundrum".
You obviously didn't read the post you quoted.
I'll ask again- how is the amount you paid for a coin relevant when you go to sell?
I have done just the opposite. Of course, my present lack of focus could be a reflection of a neurological problem that I am not aware of.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
I think it's evident by the many posts to your "coinundrum" that there is much interest. I'm definitely wanting to hear the rest of the story!
My opinion is that I think if it was me I would sell and use the proceeds for something I've wanted for a long time.
The only reason cost should matter is for potential tax liabilities (or deductions). It should have no other bearing on whether to buy or sell a coin in a given market environment. This has been discussed many times in various forms here.
Cost by itself only matters if you are a dealer who needs to make a sale. There are 3 numbers here: cost, offer, and "market value". The decision is then determined by how motivated the seller (or buyer) is which decides where he falls among the 3 numbers. [I have "market value" in quotes because that is often the hardest thing to assess. Cost is cost. The offer is the offer. The market value can vary depending on how PQ the coin is or isn't.]
For a dealer, if he can get an offer over market value he will probably always take it. If he gets an offer that is below market value and below cost, he will usually refuse it. If he gets an offer that is above cost but below "market value", it all comes down to how much he wants to make a sale. If he's flush, he may hold out for closer to market value. If it's been slow or he's owned the coin for a while, then he takes the offer.
In the case of the OP's scenario, cost is irrelevant because the coin was not bought with the intention of turning it for a profit. So, the OP's scenario is really an excellent example of an abstract value proposition: I have this thing, how much do I value its possession? In that case, cost and market value and the offer are all rather secondary to the OP's determination of value to himself.
I'd sell it to buy a piece or pieces for my core collection, without even thinking twice about it. BUT then, I'm a hobbyist and it is never about making money for me. It is always buying what I like and for my core collection only. To date, NEVER have I bid on a coin or purchased a coin that I did not intend on keeping.
I'd be very interested in your decision. Maybe I can learn to expand my horizon and improve the way I look at my purchases.
Donato
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