Black Swan
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Update:
plane diverted to March AFB & occupants quarantined.China has quarantined 60 million. Total transportation shutdown in certain areas. Communications shutdown. News getting distributed by smuggling out memory chips.
Have a nice day1 -
@cohodk said:
700 people die every day in China as the result of car accidents. Thats 250,000 every year..or the equivalent of the population of Buffalo or Reno.Not belittleing anything. Just offering perspective.
That car accident stat is more related to Chinese culture than anything in my opinion. Human life is not valued over there the way it is valued in western world. Go watch some of the many liveleak videos of Chinese citizens backing up their car after a driver hits a pedestrian(not kidding either), so they don't have to pay hospital bills. They're taught to do that...
No different than what is going on with the Chinese government. They were trying to hide their issues, even if it was at the peril of their fellow chicoms. Now the issue is quickly getting exponentially larger and worse. The number of reported infected people has almost tripled today 6,000 (1/29/20) from the number that was was reported yesterday (1/28/20) 2,744. Since we all know that China is almost never truthful with their official stats, I think it is safe to assume the number is significantly higher than currently reported.
1/29/20 numbers
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/29/coronavirus-latest-updates.html0 -
infection numbers reportedly passed sars now
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Most people seem to calculate the Mortality Rate as Dead / Infected, which now stands at ~2% (= 132 / 6057). Add in the asymptomatic people, and it doesn't seem like a big deal. But, this equation fails to consider that some of the infected will eventually die.
Another way to look at the Mortality Rate is Dead / (Dead + Recovered), which is a scary 55% (= 132 / (132 + 110). We don't know if the infected will die, or recover. See https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 for the recovered numbers, which I haven't found anywhere else.
The real Mortality Rate is somewhere in between these two percentages.
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Of those who have died, what percentage had other comorbidity conditions, and what were those conditions.
This is also a very important consideration which is not addressed and unfortunately leads to fear.
Excuses are tools of the ignorantKnowledge is the enemy of fear
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@cohodk said:
Of those who have died, what percentage had other comorbidity conditions, and what were those conditions.This is also a very important consideration which is not addressed and unfortunately leads to fear.
Agree fully. And, what are the demographics of the infected and the deceased. Mostly very old or very young? Or a more even distribution? There is such an information vacuum that I find it hard to determine if I should panic or relax.
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@cohodk said:
700 people die every day in China as the result of car accidents. Thats 250,000 every year..or the equivalent of the population of Buffalo or Reno.Not belittleing anything. Just offering perspective.
22 US military veterans decide to take their own lifes every single day. Once they have served and are no longer of use the government just throws them away. 132 cronovirus deaths in 29 days, in the same time 638 vets have taken their own life, we are not talking bone spurs and headaches up in here. SemperFi!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
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This can be a black swan...
Excuses are tools of the ignorantKnowledge is the enemy of fear
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@cohodk said:
This can be a black swan...Reading the last article it is funny they cite"Media Matters" as if it is a legit source. David Brock runs that company and it is pretty much its own partisan fake news outlet that was started to help Hillary Clinton. Media Matters was formerly known as "correct the record" which was also run by Brock and John Podesta is a company that employs people to literally sit on Reddit, Facebook and Twitter and to push democrat agendas and talking points. Just so you're aware...
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@ShadyDave said:
@cohodk said:
This can be a black swan...Reading the last article it is funny they cite"Media Matters" as if it is a legit source. David Brock runs that company and it is pretty much its own partisan fake news outlet that was started to help Hillary Clinton. Media Matters was formerly known as "correct the record" which was also run by Brock and John Podesta is a company that employs people to literally sit on Reddit, Facebook and Twitter and to push democrat agendas and talking points. Just so you're aware...
Thats exactly the point. Tremendous amounts of "fake news" regarding numerous topics is being distributed on a daily basis. Unfortunately that fake news is being accepted by millions. The abilty to control, influence and manipulate grows incessantly. Thats why that Dr.Suess meme is so appropriate.
Folks better learn how to learn. The black birds are circling.
Excuses are tools of the ignorantKnowledge is the enemy of fear
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WHO declares emergency.
Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions0 -
A virus is not living tissue & this virus spreads from host to host via airborne transmission.
Wuhan has 10 million people & virtually no activity.
China is attempting to build a hospital in 5 days to accept patients.
60+ million people are quarantined in China.
No one in the public sector knows how many people have been cremated in China.
The real numbers will never be known outside of their govt.
In a couple of weeks we will know if the defecation hits the oscillation.
Until then, buckle up.Have a nice day0 -
A friend of mine tells me that an incubation time of 15 days doesn't occur in nature normally, which is why he thinks that this was a bioweapon strain.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I knew it would happen.0 -
@jmski52 said:
A friend of mine tells me that an incubation time of 15 days doesn't occur in nature normally, which is why he thinks that this was a bioweapon strain.Your friend should stop trying to be willfully ignorant. Many, many viruses have incubation periods of several weeks or even longer.
Folks have to get off these alt-right websites and use their frealing brain.
Excuses are tools of the ignorantKnowledge is the enemy of fear
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@derryb said:
1/29/20 10 a.m. EST latest worldwide numbers:
Reported cases: 6151
Reported deaths: 1321/30 7 p.m.:
Confirmed cases worldwide: 9,821
Reported deaths: 213Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else. - Bastiat
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I'm more worried that there have been infected people confirmed in India. That can turn this into a REAL shitshow...
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@cohodk said:
Of those who have died, what percentage had other comorbidity conditions, and what were those conditions.This is also a very important consideration which is not addressed and unfortunately leads to fear.
The only important consideration is "What killed them?" The color of the shoes they were wearing might have increased their odds of dying but it is not what killed them.
Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else. - Bastiat
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Derry
I'm going with purple shoes.Seriously, 7 days or maybe less & if the graph keeps up a Saturn 5 trajectory then we have a problem Houston. Updates every 3 hrs by W.H.O.
My gunshow partner explained the 5 steps to me up to martial law. We are at stage 1. Nothing to be concerned about. Just move along. But he did suggest 30 days of food & water.Have a nice day0 -
@streeter said:
he did suggest 30 days of food & water.good insurance. May not need it without an emergency but in an emergency you definitely need it. As long as emergencies are beyond your control, best to be prepared for them.
Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else. - Bastiat
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Derry,
I need to give you a little background. 1. Any media we have access to is not accurate.
My gunshow partner for last 15 yrs is USN SEAL. A little younger than me. Stationed in Asia for 5yrs. Married Chinese doctor. Lives in SoCal. My neighbor. EE/CS & Masters in Chinese language.
A lot of contacts over there. Wuhan is a mess. Body bags everywhere. Not just 203 dead as reported. His conjecture is a level 5 military bio lab 8 miles away had the virus escape somehow. His quote, "if it spreads over here-we're effed".I was goofing around last week in Sonora & Mill Valley & I get an Email to start buying reserves. Out of the blue.
US citizens will not deal well with this if virus gets to U.S. Let's hope it's contained but wise to keep on top of it.Have a nice day1 -
I’ve been in China for three days, two different cities (of millions) about 400 miles south of Wuhan.
My observations:
Everyone is wearing masks, my forehead temperature has been taken numerous times in and out of my layover hotel, twice on the freeway at random stops. The roads are eerily empty, a few pedestrians where I would normally see swarms and gridlock traffic. The hotel restaurants are empty.There’s no official lock down in this region; I was able to walk around last night. I only saw officials. They gave me no problems.
I’ve watched some local programming and heard that Russia is going to shut their border with China. And the WHO announced that the Coronavirus is now a ‘global emergency’.
Question: If the Chinese are not ‘consuming’ and/or not producing, how long until the world economy slows down? (The US economy is arguably stronger than in the SARS period of 2002-2003.)
I’m leaving for Osaka tonight and will have to walk through the passenger terminal in Shenzhen. I’m curious to see what activity is there and to contrast how the Japanese are handling this virus.
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Looks like 1849
Excuses are tools of the ignorantKnowledge is the enemy of fear
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Your friend should stop trying to be willfully ignorant. Many, many viruses have incubation periods of several weeks or even longer.
Folks have to get off these alt-right websites and use their frealing brain.The fact that he worked with biohazards in the military doesn't make him an expert, true enough. However, where did you get YOUR medical training? There are videos coming out of China that don't look so promising as it regards their ability to handle this outbreak. Or do you think that the alt-right is somehow involved there too?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I knew it would happen.0 -
Jmski
Now that g.licker has been shown the door we have a plethora of experts auditioning to take his place.
I have been told that the following scenario may take place. The Chinese folks who live in the southland(L.A.) & went back to China for the Christmas holidays have returned & were never screened. Thousands. Many do not seek American doctors when they feel ILL. They seek Chinese herbalists. Two 'herbalists' have been shut down in L.A.
We are ground zero here if things aren't controlled. This next week ought to be interesting.
I was looking at the genome sequence & it is clear that the HIV-1 virus was inserted into the nCoV sequence. The explanation of this is easy to find on the net. Strictly a bio weapon. The good news is that it will degrade quickly.
The bad news is, I live in L.A..Have a nice day0 -
China has not been exactly honest and trustworthy ( Counterfeit coins in counterfeit holders)
I would not trust their info. Epidemic is way worse than reported. Who the heck eats Bat soup!email: ccacollectibles@yahoo.com
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@jmski52 said:
Your friend should stop trying to be willfully ignorant. Many, many viruses have incubation periods of several weeks or even longer.
Folks have to get off these alt-right websites and use their frealing brain.The fact that he worked with biohazards in the military doesn't make him an expert, true enough. However, where did you get YOUR medical training?
One does not need medical training to know that many, many viruses have multi-week incubation periods.
Why is there such a rush among some of you to fully embrace conspiracy theory? You guys are ones who constantly declare yourselves the experts, for as soon as something doesnt make sense to you it becomes a conspiracy or is manipulated.
I think the alt-right spreads fear. And a fearful person is a controlled person. This tactic has been used since Adam and Eve.
Be scared. Be controlled. Not me.
Excuses are tools of the ignorantKnowledge is the enemy of fear
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@streeter said:
Jmski
Now that g.licker has been shown the door we have a plethora of experts auditioning to take his place.I was looking at the genome sequence & it is clear that the HIV-1 virus was inserted into the nCoV sequence. The explanation of this is easy to find on the net. Strictly a bio weapon. The good news is that it will degrade quickly.
Yay, our scrap dealer is now a geneticist!!!
There is zero evidence of this virus being manipulated with the HIV virus. You dont even understand the nomenclature. You read a word like "insert" and assume it means someone put it there.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/mining-coronavirus-genomes-clues-outbreak-s-origins
Excuses are tools of the ignorantKnowledge is the enemy of fear
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Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else. - Bastiat
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@cohodk said:
You read a word like "insert" and assume it means someone put it there.fairly safe assumption:
verb
/inˈsərt/
1. place, fit, or thrust (something) into another thing, especially with care.
"a steel rod was inserted into the small hole"Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else. - Bastiat
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_"I was looking at the genome sequence & it is clear that the HIV-1 virus was inserted into the nCoV sequence. The explanation of this is easy to find on the net." _
Anyone have a scientifically credible link for the above?
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Again, you assume human involvement.
Im not going to get into a discussion of gene mutation with you. Learn the nomenclature. Heres a start. Look at that...that pesky virus "inserted" itself. Didnt even need a big smart human.
Excuses are tools of the ignorantKnowledge is the enemy of fear
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Until he realized something disturbing.
Oh my god. Indian scientists have just found HIV (AIDS) virus-like insertions in the 2019-nCov virus that are not found in any other coronavirus. They hint at the possibility that this Chinese virus was designed ["not fortuitous']. Scary if true. https://t.co/h6xPX1gYvj pic.twitter.com/kCpd1I00uE
— Anand Ranganathan (@ARanganathan72) January 31, 2020
Have a nice day1 -
That's not credible scientific evidence and it has been pilloried already by many scientists.
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they are credible since they are not manipulative mainstream media
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I don't know if your response is sarcasm or serious, but the "paper" in question was a non-peer reviewed, pre-publication and has already been withdrawn by the authors.
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Tom with your background
What do you think?Have a nice day0 -
I think it is a natural form of selection bias.
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@TomB said:
I don't know if your response is sarcasm or serious, but the "paper" in question was a non-peer reviewed, pre-publication and has already been withdrawn by the authors.it was my opinion on why non-mainstream media is so often used as sources here.
(you've missed a lot around here TomB)
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@TomB said:
withdrawn by the authors.a cover up.
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What does Schiff say?
Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else. - Bastiat
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depends upon the channel.
if it is on cnn then it is fake news. if it is on fox, then all is well.Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions1 -
when does the black swan take flight?
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Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else. - Bastiat
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Why is there such a rush among some of you to fully embrace conspiracy theory? You guys are ones who constantly declare yourselves the experts, for as soon as something doesnt make sense to you it becomes a conspiracy or is manipulated.
I think the alt-right spreads fear. And a fearful person is a controlled person. This tactic has been used since Adam and Eve.
Be scared. Be controlled. Not me.Nobody is citing any alt-right sources, neither did my friend. I don't believe that anyone here is trying to incite fear. Nor did anyone in this thread declare themselves an expert, (scroll up).
One does not need medical training to know that many, many viruses have multi-week incubation periods.
I wasn't able to confirm your statement when I googled "what coronaviruses have a long incubation time?"
From Wikipedia - I found it on the internet, so it must be true:
"The incubation period of the virus -- meaning the time it is in the body before symptoms appear -- is usually two to four days, and the infection caused by human corona virus is usually mild. A relatively small amount of information is known about human corona viruses because most of them do not grow in cultured cells....."
Please provide a source that backs up your statement that "many viruses have multi-week incubation periods", or at least stop with your bogus contention that anyone who takes an opposing view is somehow brainwashed by "the alt-right".
lol.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I knew it would happen.0 -
Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else. - Bastiat
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Derry
I think we have the g.licker 'colonel expert' replacement amongst us. Every forum needs 'colonel expert'.Funny how I have always remembered that when I was exposed to something, noticeable symptoms came within a day or two or not at all.
I have no ax to grind in this fight. I'm not a biologist. My human source is a retired USN contractor with a Chinese wife who is a physician & her parents are also Dr's in China. In this part of the world many Chinese are Adventists with family in China. Many are health professionals. They have knowledge of what is going on over there. I would never be privy to what is going on over there were it not for my friend.
BTW, you can't buy a surgical mask around here. All have been bought and are being marked up from $1 to $5.
Have a nice day0 -
As luck would have it, I’m staying at the White Swan hotel on Shamian ‘Island’ in Guangzhou, China on the Pearl River...400 miles south of ground zero.
Pic is from the 23rd floor overlooking the French half of Shamian. It’s noon on Sunday. Virtually no one is out and this is a very touristy area. The draw here is the French and English architecture that dates back 150 years. The ‘island’ is one of several lands given to the Brits after the first Opium War (including Hong Kong).
At breakfast there were two FedEx crews and one UPS crew and 6 ‘locals’.
I saw a local report on drones flying around looking for people who don’t have masks on and ‘shaming’ them, not sure on how that’s done.
Recent report is 304 dead, 14,000 cases.
I hope I can find a place to watch the Super Bowl.
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Thanks for these reports, renman95, not just for up close observations about the manifestations of the virus, but for the general fascination about your travels, and great writing!
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Keep the body count coming! go gold!! Congrats on your new found wealth!!!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
Retiring at 55, what day is today?0
https://youtu.be/VA9G1VCnOFY
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