@Overdate said:
There are more collectors of regular proofs (like the 1995-W) than there are collectors of the complete Silver Eagle series (which includes the 2019-W). Therefore I think collector demand for the 1995-W will likely always be higher than collector demand for the 2019-W.
2019-S and 2019-W
You're right, 2019-S.
I'm wondering if we're seeing something similar to a "short squeeze" in the stock market - people paying up for the coin in order to fulfill pre-order sales they made earlier at a lower price.
Have you all notices that Pinehurst that has sold about 400-500 of the 2019s RP has zero feedback on ebay where people say they have received the coin as of last time I checked. What if they cant cover all those coins and they or other dealers that have "presold" what they don't have cancel the orders for all the lower sales price buy-it-nows. Lot of people that think they have an order in process may find the defaults continue. Half of my orders under buy-it-now were canceled 2 weeks after the fact.
Just saying if the large dealer presales default its going to be a mess on ebay.
Good point, Eric.
I know that Pinehurst in the past canceled the Liberty’s in 70 (they pre-sold) that they didn’t have or couldn’t get.
I didn’t look at the same data (that you indicate) for MCM or at APMEX, though.
@Overdate said:
There are more collectors of regular proofs (like the 1995-W) than there are collectors of the complete Silver Eagle series (which includes the 2019-W). Therefore I think collector demand for the 1995-W will likely always be higher than collector demand for the 2019-W.
2019-S and 2019-W
You're right, 2019-S.
I'm wondering if we're seeing something similar to a "short squeeze" in the stock market - people paying up for the coin in order to fulfill pre-order sales they made earlier at a lower price.
I don't know. So many of those pre-sales got canceled.
Have you all notices that Pinehurst that has sold about 400-500 of the 2019s RP has zero feedback on ebay where people say they have received the coin as of last time I checked. What if they cant cover all those coins and they or other dealers that have "presold" what they don't have cancel the orders for all the lower sales price buy-it-nows. Lot of people that think they have an order in process may find the defaults continue. Half of my orders under buy-it-now were canceled 2 weeks after the fact.
Just saying if the large dealer presales default its going to be a mess on ebay.
It already has been a mess on eBay. And the presales have to be intentional as Pinehurst has continued to sell the coins as the price increased. If they were going to cancel, why would they have not suspended sales earlier?
ative rarity keys to go on to greatness, and it now has them. They are the 1995-W Proof, the 2019-S Reverse Proof and the 2008-W mint state with reverse of 2007 and to a much lesser degree, the mint state 2011-S.
We don’t know what will come out next year for the sendoff of the Type I Silver Eagle, but frankly it may not matter as long as the design change takes place at the end of 2020. If the Mint Produces an even lower mintage special offering next year (which I highly doubt) then buy it even if it comes from the hand of someone with better luck than you. If not, we have workable keys for the largest silver dollar population the world has ever seen, and the keys will be set in stone.
Assuming the Mint has the same return and damage rate as the 2011 anniversary set, the 2019-S Enhanced Reverse Proof will come in around 29,964 coins. Given that the 95-W in PR-69 is a roughly $2600 to $3000 coin, you can expect the 2019-S to move into this price range over the next 10 years, or less for a run of the mill example. The 2019-S PR70 price behavior is more difficult to project. Don’t assume that the fantastic 1995-W PR-70 prices running between $8,000 and $20,000 associated with the 95-W will show up on the 2019-S. That will depend on grade through rate. The 1995-W does not grade all that well, so 70s are hard to come by. If most of the 2019-S issues can make 70 (and many of them are) then the prices on them will fall well short of the 95-W in 70.
The Type I Silver Eagle, unlike some of the older dollars series, can be completed by mere mortals and probably has a bright future. If you like moderns, start picking up the better date Silver Eagles with sub-150,000 mintages while they are still looking for permanent homes because that’s nothing in a sea of over half billion coins.
The bottom line is the 2019s RP is the lowest mintage coin in the largest silver dollar series the world has ever seen.
Happy collecting....
This is beyond silly. You are comparing Bullion to a series. Maybe collectors that collect these ASE's, which are nothing but Silver bullion, will care about a design change. But no one else will.
This is really NOT true. $20 gold pieces were also bullion. Morgan $s were also bullion. As were ALL SILVER DIMES. The only difference between the 19th century and 21st century is that we stopped doing commerce in bullion.
Further, the PROOF issues cannot really be considered bullion with the high premium. They are NCLT but they are not bullion. They are a collector series.
@jmlanzaf said:
There may be more now than then, on a percentage basis. There may not be. But I don't think that the roughly 70% drop in Mint customers and the roughly 70% drop in ANA members is a coincidence.
One thing that's different today from 30-40 years ago is the number of products marketed by the mint. Used to be, there were proof sets and mint sets, at most. And that's it. Just about anybody could afford to collect those. Now, there's a seemingly neverending array of items for sale- individual coins and sets in all sorts of combinations and finishes and compositions. Completeness is important to lots of collectors, and the mint has made it difficult to maintain a complete set of just about anything anymore. I tried to keep up for a while but once the mint started selling gold and platinum coins, I had to cut back on what I bought since I couldn't afford it all. Eventually, I gave up entirely. And it's not like I didn't see it coming, as I also collect Canadian coins and the RCM is about 10 years or so ahead of the US Mint in expanding their product line. When it gets to the point that you have to start buying sets of coins just to get the individual ones you're still interested in because they're only available in sets, it sucks a whole lot of fun out of the hobby and you start to look elsewhere. I know it happened to me, and I have talked to others who feel the same way. Maybe the mint has fewer customers today because of this? Or maybe it's something else entirely. Who knows?
But you are ignoring 2/3 of what I said to argue about the other 1/3. Is your thesis that the proliferation of new issues caused people to drop their ANA membership and stop buying Morgan dollars?
@jmlanzaf said:
But you are ignoring 2/3 of what I said to argue about the other 1/3. Is your thesis that the proliferation of new issues caused people to drop their ANA membership and stop buying Morgan dollars?
I'm sorry- I was talking about the drop in the number of people on the mint's mailing list. I didn't realize you expected me to address everything in your post.
@jmlanzaf said:
But you are ignoring 2/3 of what I said to argue about the other 1/3. Is your thesis that the proliferation of new issues caused people to drop their ANA membership and stop buying Morgan dollars?
I'm sorry- I was talking about the drop in the number of people on the mint's mailing list. I didn't realize you expected me to address everything in your post.
But the other 2 items suggest that the drop in Mint customers is NOT just about the Mint. If ANA membership was still near 100,000 and the Mint mailing list had dropped 70%, then you can argue that the Mint has a problem. The fact that both dropped together suggest that the Mint's problem may not just be about the Mint.
@jmlanzaf said:
But the other 2 items suggest that the drop in Mint customers is NOT just about the Mint. If ANA membership was still near 100,000 and the Mint mailing list had dropped 70%, then you can argue that the Mint has a problem. The fact that both dropped together suggest that the Mint's problem may not just be about the Mint.
If you say so. I suggested a reason for a drop in the mint's mailing list. I didn't say you have to agree.
edited to add... Have you considered the possibility that the drop in mint customers might have a different reason than the drop in ANA membership?
@jmlanzaf said:
But the other 2 items suggest that the drop in Mint customers is NOT just about the Mint. If ANA membership was still near 100,000 and the Mint mailing list had dropped 70%, then you can argue that the Mint has a problem. The fact that both dropped together suggest that the Mint's problem may not just be about the Mint.
If you say so. I suggested a reason for a drop in the mint's mailing list. I didn't say you have to agree.
edited to add... Have you considered the possibility that the drop in mint customers might have a different reason than the drop in ANA membership?
As I said in the original post, seems unlikely to be a simple coincidence. ANA membership and Mint buyers both drop around 70% at the same time and they are independent events? They may not be 100% correlated, but there does seem to be a correlation to softness in widgets as well.
@jmlanzaf said:
But the other 2 items suggest that the drop in Mint customers is NOT just about the Mint. If ANA membership was still near 100,000 and the Mint mailing list had dropped 70%, then you can argue that the Mint has a problem. The fact that both dropped together suggest that the Mint's problem may not just be about the Mint.
If you say so. I suggested a reason for a drop in the mint's mailing list. I didn't say you have to agree.
edited to add... Have you considered the possibility that the drop in mint customers might have a different reason than the drop in ANA membership?
I mean, you could be right and they are completely separate events. But it is similar to what happened in the stamp market. People stopped collecting new USPS issues. And it was suggested it was all about the proliferation of issues and the creation of too many collectibles, etc. But, at the same time APS membership dropped 80% and the price of philatelic widgets collapsed.
Now, were there some people who kept collecting but just stopped with new issues? Yes. But it turned out to be a much more generic turnoff. I'm not so sure we aren't seeing a similar thing in the numismatic market.
@jmlanzaf said:
As I said in the original post, seems unlikely to be a simple coincidence. ANA membership and Mint buyers both drop around 70% at the same time and they are independent events?
Small sample size, but the few people I know who used to buy from the mint and no longer do were never ANA members. FWIW...
@jmlanzaf said:
They may not be 100% correlated, but there does seem to be a correlation to softness in widgets as well.
I've been selling cheap stuff on eBay for 20 years and things are going okay here. It's not like the crazy times in the early years, but I've got no real complaints with what my coins are selling for. Again, FWIW.
@jmlanzaf said:
As I said in the original post, seems unlikely to be a simple coincidence. ANA membership and Mint buyers both drop around 70% at the same time and they are independent events?
Small sample size, but the few people I know who used to buy from the mint and no longer do were never ANA members. FWIW...
@jmlanzaf said:
They may not be 100% correlated, but there does seem to be a correlation to softness in widgets as well.
I've been selling cheap stuff on eBay for 20 years and things are going okay here. It's not like the crazy times in the early years, but I've got no real complaints with what my coins are selling for. Again, FWIW.
That's always been true. Same for local clubs. Less than half the members of my local club are ANA members. And less than half - much less - of the local B&M's customers are members of either. That's why I used percentage rather than absolute members.
15 to 20 years ago, there were over 2 million mint customers and only 100,000 ANA members. But, statistics are what they are. Both dropped by 70% or so over that time frame.
I'm not complaining. I can buy an sell fine, whether the market is rising or declining. But the softness in prices is all about the excess supply relative to demand.
@jmlanzaf said:
But the softness in prices is all about the excess supply relative to demand.
Perhaps demand has not changed all that much but the "excess supply" has something to do with the increasing ease of making said supply available for purchase. Before eBay, I'd have just had a bunch of extras gathering dust.
@jmlanzaf said:
But the softness in prices is all about the excess supply relative to demand.
Perhaps demand has not changed all that much but the "excess supply" has something to do with the increasing ease of making said supply available for purchase. Before eBay, I'd have just had a bunch of extras gathering dust.
If you work in a coal mine, ignore the canaries at your own risk.
Yes, eBay has made availability greater, especially collector to collector. But those coins made it onto the market 20 years ago, they just went through a dealer first.
Certainly some of the price issues relate to proliferation of supply. There are a alot more slabbed 65 and 66 Morgan dollars than there were 20 years ago. But, again, I'm not looking at any one of these metrics in isolation. Look at them together and it tells the story of a shrinking collector base.
@jmlanzaf said:
If you work in a coal mine, ignore the canaries at your own risk.
I don't depend on selling coins to pay the bills. No worries here.
@jmlanzaf said:
Yes, eBay has made availability greater, especially collector to collector. But those coins made it onto the market 20 years ago, they just went through a dealer first.
They still do. Since eBay came into being, I buy coins from dealers to sell there.
@jmlanzaf said:
Look at them together and it tells the story of a shrinking collector base.
On the other hand, lots of coins are being made available today that would never have been seen by potential buyers in the past.
@jmlanzaf said:
If you work in a coal mine, ignore the canaries at your own risk.
I don't depend on selling coins to pay the bills. No worries here.
@jmlanzaf said:
Yes, eBay has made availability greater, especially collector to collector. But those coins made it onto the market 20 years ago, they just went through a dealer first.
They still do. Since eBay came into being, I buy coins from dealers to sell there.
LOL. Neither do I. I'm keeping my day job for now.
I watched the collapse of stamps up close. I think the floor is higher for coins, but a lot of the same indicators are there. Admittedly, I don't have a crystal ball, but I do think we should avoid complacency.
Have you all notices that Pinehurst that has sold about 400-500 of the 2019s RP has zero feedback on ebay where people say they have received the coin as of last time I checked. What if they cant cover all those coins and they or other dealers that have "presold" what they don't have cancel the orders for all the lower sales price buy-it-nows. Lot of people that think they have an order in process may find the defaults continue. Half of my orders under buy-it-now were canceled 2 weeks after the fact.
Just saying if the large dealer presales default its going to be a mess on ebay.
Pinehurst's delivery date starts early next year, yes, 2020! Therefore, there shouldn't be any feedbacks yet.
I also wondered should PH not fulfilled its allocation of Pre-sale orders, could they just cancelled the early low-price buyers and just honored the later higher price purchasers? I'm sure there's a disclaimer somewhere stating that any pre-sale orders are subject to cancellation and not covered the "early birds get the worm" policy.
Thanks for writing this, Eric--and kicking off such a fun discussion. I guess my actions reflect where I think the new issue will go. I managed to obtain one and, for the first time in my life, flipped it. I just don't really believe there are 30,000 passionate ASE collectors out there, and also think the number is shrinking with each passing day. Can anyone even guess how many of the 95-Ws or 19-Ss are sitting in dealer or speculator vaults? It's got to be a hefty number, and eventually those people will grow tired of sitting on that inventory. Reminds me of the 1909-S VDB. I think prices for that coin will seriously crash and in the not-too-distant future. With cell phones at their fingertips, there just isn't going to be another generation of collectors who will sit patiently to enjoy, analyze, and think about a stationary object in front of them. I do hope I'm wrong, but we will all find out. Meanwhile, I'm glad the Mint did this and hope they continue to manufacture artificial rarities. Look how much excitement this has created! As Steely Dan sings, "Go back, Mint, and do it again!"
Thanks Ericj1996. I can rest easy now, especially after your insightful opening post. Did some presale buying on Ebay starting on the 11th of November as a collector of this bullion series having a gut feeling I would get shut out on the 14th. And I did get shut out. I did get some on the 15th from the mint though. All in all, I sold a few on ebay and one on this forum much to soon but in the end what I have left is all free and clear. Still unopened as received by me from the mint and some from trusted sellers.
Fox, I am sending off my three that I did end up getting from ebay for grading and may sell one and keep the other 2. I will end up with very little in the two that remain. Unopened boxes are a good way to hold these things too. You were blessed to get some very cheap from the mint.
Welcome back. The Eagles are good. Unfortunately since you left, things changed. I just got a feedback which shows how the g-man is killing the golden goose ( or turkey, as it were).
My feedback to the buyer stated "ebay put the tax on your item. We don't have tax on coins in Nebraska."
That said: the premiums to spot on some Eagles are much higher than others. And there is no doubt we have tons of Eagle collectors. But this tax is chasing some away.
@Overdate said:
I'm wondering if we're seeing something similar to a "short squeeze" in the stock market - people paying up for the coin in order to fulfill pre-order sales they made earlier at a lower price.
what was the initial release price from the Mint for this item?? --- $69.95
I don't know that anyone else has said as much and surely everyone should collect what they like, but to be paying north of $1k for these is ridiculous.
@keets said: what was the initial release price from the Mint for this item?? --- $69.95
I don't know that anyone else has said as much and surely everyone should collect what they like, but to be paying north of $1k for these is ridiculous.
@Ericj1996 said:
You are correct Mitch. One of the things that has hurt the market is there is zero inflation and many dont feel the need for hard assets in general right now. I am not saying to people to go out and buy a bunch of them and make a fortune this year. These 2019s RP silver eagles were a great buy at $650-$1250 each and they may move into the 1995W price range over time. Maybe the 1995W will fall back to 2 grand and the 2019s will stall there.
This series may lay dormant for a decade until some inflation shows up. Most series mature within 40 years of series close.
I wrote this as a reply to some post about whats the big deal with this new fake rarity by collectors that dont understand fundamentals of the ASE.
I'm not sure that "hard assets" other than bullion would benefit much from inflation. The last thing I'd expect to move up is a $2000 ounce of silver. I don't think you'll see much of a flight to collectibles.
There is no parallel between now and the 1970's. That's what I keep seeing with sentiments like the post to which you replied. All assets (including coin prices) are vastly inflated by the credit bubble and when it bursts, the next most likely move will be a reversal of the currently inflated prices.
@Ericj1996 said:
Some collectors stand either amazed or bewildered that an 2019S issue silver dollar is trading at such high prices in such a short period of time but its behavior is predictable IF you understand the Silver Eagle series. What it is, and the transition its about to go through. Lets look at a few basics.
Silver Eagles now have a total population of over half a billion coins and have a larger population than the Morgan did in 1904 before the Pittman Act melts. It’s the modern Morgan, and the Mint indicates that it’s going to change the reverse next year, effectively closing the series. Remember this series is subject to the law of 1890 requiring at least 25 years between design changes, so we are witnessing the close of the Type I Silver Eagle and the dawn of the Type II Silver Eagle.
The Morgan had a lot going for it. Large size, good looks, massive high-grade populations, cheap common dates, high bullion content and a wide variety in finishes ranging from frosted to proof like and proof not to mention multiple mint marks. The great melts gave Morgans another important characteristic that contributed to eventual series greatness, and that’s a great deal of stagger to the series populations. If you don’t have some key dates that are much harder to come by than the common dates, series don’t develop well. Morgans had all of this, and it’s the reason they went on to become a staple of the typical American coin collector.
The 1986 to 2020 Type I Silver Eagle has almost exactly the same structure. Large size, good looks, beyond massive high-grade populations, cheap common dates, high bullion content and a wide variety of finishes. From the start, the Type I Silver Eagle had consistently large mintages that did not offer key date mintages low enough to produce the kind of key date to common date mintage differentials needed to produce a meaningful collectable. That was until the Mint issued the 1995-W Proof Silver Eagle in the four-coin gold set. The hassle and expense of buying one was the anomaly that gave this great modern silver dollar series its first and badly needed noteworthy key.
“You still could buy the 95-W Proof for less than $500 in early 1996, but that seemed like an exorbitant price for a coin that was issued as a gift in a gold coin set 6 months prior and had a 30,000 mintage. Make no mistake about it, rarity is relative. Relative to the population of the series members and the number of people that collect it. The 95-W was an order of magnitude rarity in a popular and rapidly growing population, so the coin spent the next 20+ years appreciating into the roughly $3000 price range for PR-69 examples.
Now the Mint just issued the controversial 2019-S Enhanced Reverse Proof Silver Eagle to the cries of many and the momentary profit of others. But there is no way to distribute them in a seamless manner to everyone that wants one and still be rare enough to be noteworthy. This series needs a few harsh relative rarity keys to go on to greatness, and it now has them. They are the 1995-W Proof, the 2019-S Reverse Proof and the 2008-W mint state with reverse of 2007 and to a much lesser degree, the mint state 2011-S.
We don’t know what will come out next year for the sendoff of the Type I Silver Eagle, but frankly it may not matter as long as the design change takes place at the end of 2020. If the Mint Produces an even lower mintage special offering next year (which I highly doubt) then buy it even if it comes from the hand of someone with better luck than you. If not, we have workable keys for the largest silver dollar population the world has ever seen, and the keys will be set in stone.
Assuming the Mint has the same return and damage rate as the 2011 anniversary set, the 2019-S Enhanced Reverse Proof will come in around 29,964 coins. Given that the 95-W in PR-69 is a roughly $2600 to $3000 coin, you can expect the 2019-S to move into this price range over the next 10 years, or less for a run of the mill example. The 2019-S PR70 price behavior is more difficult to project. Don’t assume that the fantastic 1995-W PR-70 prices running between $8,000 and $20,000 associated with the 95-W will show up on the 2019-S. That will depend on grade through rate. The 1995-W does not grade all that well, so 70s are hard to come by. If most of the 2019-S issues can make 70 (and many of them are) then the prices on them will fall well short of the 95-W in 70.
The Type I Silver Eagle, unlike some of the older dollars series, can be completed by mere mortals and probably has a bright future. If you like moderns, start picking up the better date Silver Eagles with sub-150,000 mintages while they are still looking for permanent homes because that’s nothing in a sea of over half billion coins.
The bottom line is the 2019s RP is the lowest mintage coin in the largest silver dollar series the world has ever seen.
Happy collecting....
This is beyond silly. You are comparing Bullion to a series. Maybe collectors that collect these ASE's, which are nothing but Silver bullion, will care about a design change. But no one else will.
Don't confuse anyone with the facts. The 2019S ERP is one of the most overpriced coins in the world as a collectible and it isn't hard to infer this conclusion. I would rank it second or third, behind the 2008 South Africa Mandela 90th BD 5R and maybe the 95-W ASE.
@jmlanzaf said:
There may be more now than then, on a percentage basis. There may not be. But I don't think that the roughly 70% drop in Mint customers and the roughly 70% drop in ANA members is a coincidence.
One thing that's different today from 30-40 years ago is the number of products marketed by the mint. Used to be, there were proof sets and mint sets, at most. And that's it. Just about anybody could afford to collect those. Now, there's a seemingly neverending array of items for sale- individual coins and sets in all sorts of combinations and finishes and compositions. Completeness is important to lots of collectors, and the mint has made it difficult to maintain a complete set of just about anything anymore. I tried to keep up for a while but once the mint started selling gold and platinum coins, I had to cut back on what I bought since I couldn't afford it all. Eventually, I gave up entirely. And it's not like I didn't see it coming, as I also collect Canadian coins and the RCM is about 10 years or so ahead of the US Mint in expanding their product line. When it gets to the point that you have to start buying sets of coins just to get the individual ones you're still interested in because they're only available in sets, it sucks a whole lot of fun out of the hobby and you start to look elsewhere. I know it happened to me, and I have talked to others who feel the same way. Maybe the mint has fewer customers today because of this? Or maybe it's something else entirely. Who knows?
The US Mint is probably losing market share to world NCLT. I don't pay attention to US mint sales closely but I know US collectors buy a lot of competitors from elsewhere.
IF a forum member started a thread, indicating they purchased a numismatic item for $xx.xx money, but the actual value was $xxxx.xx, EVERY single person on here would be congratulating the poster AND giving them a "you suck" award.
Guys, I assumed that the 2019s would have a problem coin rate about like the 25th anniversary set. I have been told by someone who is right most of the time its almost 1%. Think 29,775 coins according to a Mint contact.
Eric,
Any reason you know of that the mint has been so lame about updating audited mintages? No gold or silver eagles since 2012, no commems or spouses since 2013, no bullion eagles since 2016. On and on.
Welcome back Eric -- miss the days of 08-W's and your book rolling out. Your obs on this issue are appreciated. The ASE's have been suffering from collector attrition the last several years and really needed something to jump start the program again. I have EVERY issue on these except the 95w and was considering dropping them but will see how the next year turns out. Cheers!
Refs: MCM,Fivecents,Julio,Robman,Endzone,Coiny,Agentjim007,Musky1011,holeinone1972,Tdec1000,Type2,bumanchu, Metalsman,Wondercoin,Pitboss,Tomohawk,carew4me,segoja,thebigeng,jlc_coin,mbogoman,sportsmod,dragon,tychojoe,Schmitz7,claychaser, Bullsitter, robeck, Nickpatton, jwitten, and many OTHERS
@Texast said:
I really can't see any true comparison between the Morgan and the ASE series. The ASE's were never intended to circulate like the Morgan's. In this respect I do not consider the ASE to be a true silver dollar, it is not the image I get when I see something mentioned about silver dollars and I doubt I am the only one here that feels that way.
With a total of five collector versions, and one bullion version ASE issued this year alone it has become tiresome to believe that I to have them all to complete my collection.
I think before I pay $1000 for a Silver Eagle that was just released I'm going to look at a 1909 S VDB cent to fill a hole in that series.
JMHO
Again, listen to the Market. For a lot of younger collectors, ASEs not Morgans are EXACTLY what they think of when you say "silver dollar". [Which has confused many an older dealer. ]
I disagree 100%. I’ve been on Instagram for over 4 years now. There are a TON of collectors on there, the vast majority in their mid 20s or younger. Almost NONE of them that I can think collect ASEs. Every day I see one morgan dollar after another posted. Pretty much never see an ASE posted unless it’s a mega toner from a toner collector.
@Texast said:
I really can't see any true comparison between the Morgan and the ASE series. The ASE's were never intended to circulate like the Morgan's. In this respect I do not consider the ASE to be a true silver dollar, it is not the image I get when I see something mentioned about silver dollars and I doubt I am the only one here that feels that way.
With a total of five collector versions, and one bullion version ASE issued this year alone it has become tiresome to believe that I to have them all to complete my collection.
I think before I pay $1000 for a Silver Eagle that was just released I'm going to look at a 1909 S VDB cent to fill a hole in that series.
JMHO
Again, listen to the Market. For a lot of younger collectors, ASEs not Morgans are EXACTLY what they think of when you say "silver dollar". [Which has confused many an older dealer. ]
Comments
You're right, 2019-S.
I'm wondering if we're seeing something similar to a "short squeeze" in the stock market - people paying up for the coin in order to fulfill pre-order sales they made earlier at a lower price.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Its good to see all you guys.
Following off MLJs comment above.
Have you all notices that Pinehurst that has sold about 400-500 of the 2019s RP has zero feedback on ebay where people say they have received the coin as of last time I checked. What if they cant cover all those coins and they or other dealers that have "presold" what they don't have cancel the orders for all the lower sales price buy-it-nows. Lot of people that think they have an order in process may find the defaults continue. Half of my orders under buy-it-now were canceled 2 weeks after the fact.
Just saying if the large dealer presales default its going to be a mess on ebay.
Good point, Eric.
I know that Pinehurst in the past canceled the Liberty’s in 70 (they pre-sold) that they didn’t have or couldn’t get.
I didn’t look at the same data (that you indicate) for MCM or at APMEX, though.
Interesting so they have done it before. Well if all that falls through its going to be a mess.
I don't know. So many of those pre-sales got canceled.
It already has been a mess on eBay. And the presales have to be intentional as Pinehurst has continued to sell the coins as the price increased. If they were going to cancel, why would they have not suspended sales earlier?
ative rarity keys to go on to greatness, and it now has them. They are the 1995-W Proof, the 2019-S Reverse Proof and the 2008-W mint state with reverse of 2007 and to a much lesser degree, the mint state 2011-S.
This is really NOT true. $20 gold pieces were also bullion. Morgan $s were also bullion. As were ALL SILVER DIMES. The only difference between the 19th century and 21st century is that we stopped doing commerce in bullion.
Further, the PROOF issues cannot really be considered bullion with the high premium. They are NCLT but they are not bullion. They are a collector series.
But you are ignoring 2/3 of what I said to argue about the other 1/3. Is your thesis that the proliferation of new issues caused people to drop their ANA membership and stop buying Morgan dollars?
I'm sorry- I was talking about the drop in the number of people on the mint's mailing list. I didn't realize you expected me to address everything in your post.
But the other 2 items suggest that the drop in Mint customers is NOT just about the Mint. If ANA membership was still near 100,000 and the Mint mailing list had dropped 70%, then you can argue that the Mint has a problem. The fact that both dropped together suggest that the Mint's problem may not just be about the Mint.
If you say so. I suggested a reason for a drop in the mint's mailing list. I didn't say you have to agree.
edited to add... Have you considered the possibility that the drop in mint customers might have a different reason than the drop in ANA membership?
As I said in the original post, seems unlikely to be a simple coincidence. ANA membership and Mint buyers both drop around 70% at the same time and they are independent events? They may not be 100% correlated, but there does seem to be a correlation to softness in widgets as well.
I mean, you could be right and they are completely separate events. But it is similar to what happened in the stamp market. People stopped collecting new USPS issues. And it was suggested it was all about the proliferation of issues and the creation of too many collectibles, etc. But, at the same time APS membership dropped 80% and the price of philatelic widgets collapsed.
Now, were there some people who kept collecting but just stopped with new issues? Yes. But it turned out to be a much more generic turnoff. I'm not so sure we aren't seeing a similar thing in the numismatic market.
Small sample size, but the few people I know who used to buy from the mint and no longer do were never ANA members. FWIW...
I've been selling cheap stuff on eBay for 20 years and things are going okay here. It's not like the crazy times in the early years, but I've got no real complaints with what my coins are selling for. Again, FWIW.
That's always been true. Same for local clubs. Less than half the members of my local club are ANA members. And less than half - much less - of the local B&M's customers are members of either. That's why I used percentage rather than absolute members.
15 to 20 years ago, there were over 2 million mint customers and only 100,000 ANA members. But, statistics are what they are. Both dropped by 70% or so over that time frame.
I'm not complaining. I can buy an sell fine, whether the market is rising or declining. But the softness in prices is all about the excess supply relative to demand.
Perhaps demand has not changed all that much but the "excess supply" has something to do with the increasing ease of making said supply available for purchase. Before eBay, I'd have just had a bunch of extras gathering dust.
If you work in a coal mine, ignore the canaries at your own risk.
Yes, eBay has made availability greater, especially collector to collector. But those coins made it onto the market 20 years ago, they just went through a dealer first.
Certainly some of the price issues relate to proliferation of supply. There are a alot more slabbed 65 and 66 Morgan dollars than there were 20 years ago. But, again, I'm not looking at any one of these metrics in isolation. Look at them together and it tells the story of a shrinking collector base.
I don't depend on selling coins to pay the bills. No worries here.
They still do. Since eBay came into being, I buy coins from dealers to sell there.
On the other hand, lots of coins are being made available today that would never have been seen by potential buyers in the past.
LOL. Neither do I. I'm keeping my day job for now.
I watched the collapse of stamps up close. I think the floor is higher for coins, but a lot of the same indicators are there. Admittedly, I don't have a crystal ball, but I do think we should avoid complacency.
Much respect.
Same to you.
Well, that was a nice moment.
I think I'll buy an unc. 2016-P National Park Service silver dollar. About $38 with a mintage of 21,003.
Just saying . . .
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Shhhhh....
Collector, occasional seller
Pinehurst's delivery date starts early next year, yes, 2020! Therefore, there shouldn't be any feedbacks yet.
I also wondered should PH not fulfilled its allocation of Pre-sale orders, could they just cancelled the early low-price buyers and just honored the later higher price purchasers? I'm sure there's a disclaimer somewhere stating that any pre-sale orders are subject to cancellation and not covered the "early birds get the worm" policy.
It's nice to see you back, ericj96. Don't be a stranger!
Hey DImeman do you even know who you are addressing in this dismissive manner?
Dimeman does this almost every time. He COULD ignore the thread, but he can't help himself. It's time to start calling out this negative behavior.
I knew it would happen.
Thanks for writing this, Eric--and kicking off such a fun discussion. I guess my actions reflect where I think the new issue will go. I managed to obtain one and, for the first time in my life, flipped it. I just don't really believe there are 30,000 passionate ASE collectors out there, and also think the number is shrinking with each passing day. Can anyone even guess how many of the 95-Ws or 19-Ss are sitting in dealer or speculator vaults? It's got to be a hefty number, and eventually those people will grow tired of sitting on that inventory. Reminds me of the 1909-S VDB. I think prices for that coin will seriously crash and in the not-too-distant future. With cell phones at their fingertips, there just isn't going to be another generation of collectors who will sit patiently to enjoy, analyze, and think about a stationary object in front of them. I do hope I'm wrong, but we will all find out. Meanwhile, I'm glad the Mint did this and hope they continue to manufacture artificial rarities. Look how much excitement this has created! As Steely Dan sings, "Go back, Mint, and do it again!"
Good to hear from you too Gritman. In regard to sell your 2019s you thats cool. Just hope you did not bail out at less than $1000.
Thanks Ericj1996. I can rest easy now, especially after your insightful opening post. Did some presale buying on Ebay starting on the 11th of November as a collector of this bullion series having a gut feeling I would get shut out on the 14th. And I did get shut out. I did get some on the 15th from the mint though. All in all, I sold a few on ebay and one on this forum much to soon but in the end what I have left is all free and clear. Still unopened as received by me from the mint and some from trusted sellers.
Fox, I am sending off my three that I did end up getting from ebay for grading and may sell one and keep the other 2. I will end up with very little in the two that remain. Unopened boxes are a good way to hold these things too. You were blessed to get some very cheap from the mint.
Welcome back. The Eagles are good. Unfortunately since you left, things changed. I just got a feedback which shows how the g-man is killing the golden goose ( or turkey, as it were).
My feedback to the buyer stated "ebay put the tax on your item. We don't have tax on coins in Nebraska."
That said: the premiums to spot on some Eagles are much higher than others. And there is no doubt we have tons of Eagle collectors. But this tax is chasing some away.
$1799 and rising for unopened boxes.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
I would like to see another 30k struck just in time for Christmas.
what was the initial release price from the Mint for this item??
$69.95.
"Coin collecting" per ASE conditions......
what was the initial release price from the Mint for this item?? --- $69.95
I don't know that anyone else has said as much and surely everyone should collect what they like, but to be paying north of $1k for these is ridiculous.
65.95
Well, by comparison, the 1995-W ASE was FREE!
Silly me my mind is just slowly getting worse! Thank you
There is no parallel between now and the 1970's. That's what I keep seeing with sentiments like the post to which you replied. All assets (including coin prices) are vastly inflated by the credit bubble and when it bursts, the next most likely move will be a reversal of the currently inflated prices.
Don't confuse anyone with the facts. The 2019S ERP is one of the most overpriced coins in the world as a collectible and it isn't hard to infer this conclusion. I would rank it second or third, behind the 2008 South Africa Mandela 90th BD 5R and maybe the 95-W ASE.
The US Mint is probably losing market share to world NCLT. I don't pay attention to US mint sales closely but I know US collectors buy a lot of competitors from elsewhere.
IF a forum member started a thread, indicating they purchased a numismatic item for $xx.xx money, but the actual value was $xxxx.xx, EVERY single person on here would be congratulating the poster AND giving them a "you suck" award.
This nothing more than free market at work.
And sour grapes.
True!!!
Guys, I assumed that the 2019s would have a problem coin rate about like the 25th anniversary set. I have been told by someone who is right most of the time its almost 1%. Think 29,775 coins according to a Mint contact.
Eric,
Any reason you know of that the mint has been so lame about updating audited mintages? No gold or silver eagles since 2012, no commems or spouses since 2013, no bullion eagles since 2016. On and on.
Welcome back Eric -- miss the days of 08-W's and your book rolling out. Your obs on this issue are appreciated. The ASE's have been suffering from collector attrition the last several years and really needed something to jump start the program again. I have EVERY issue on these except the 95w and was considering dropping them but will see how the next year turns out. Cheers!
I disagree 100%. I’ve been on Instagram for over 4 years now. There are a TON of collectors on there, the vast majority in their mid 20s or younger. Almost NONE of them that I can think collect ASEs. Every day I see one morgan dollar after another posted. Pretty much never see an ASE posted unless it’s a mega toner from a toner collector.
And 100% inaccurate.