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Weiss · October 25, 2019 8:07AM

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ctf_error_coins · October 25, 2019 8:15AM

" And he's come up with a simple philosophy: If I see something good I haven't seen before, I buy it. Because I'm unlikely to see it again."

I built my collection and then my business on that simple philosophy.

Insider2 · October 25, 2019 8:18AM

That "law" may be a corollary to the often quoted "Knowledge is power."

ricko · October 25, 2019 8:46AM

That is a good rule....and I can recall a few instances over the years where I regretted passing on some good coins. See it, like it....decide to come back after looking at the rest of the show... it is gone.... :'( Cheers, RickO

carabonnair · October 25, 2019 9:06AM

That reminds me of the late Victor Gadoury who would describe rare coins by how many years it would take to see another one.

FredWeinberg · October 25, 2019 9:22AM

I like to quote famous NY dealer Lester Merkin,
who told me:

"Sometimes the opportunity to buy a rare coin
is rarer than the coin."

savitale · October 25, 2019 9:25AM

I agree with that law. I have a hard time pulling the trigger on common coins because I know there will be a similar or better one available tomorrow. For very scare coins that meet my collecting goals, I’ve paid whatever it takes.

Nap · October 25, 2019 9:38AM

It’s a good philosophy but I don’t think it applies to many collectors. Majority of collectors cannot remain focused in one field for decades.

Weiss · October 25, 2019 9:49AM

@Nap said:
It’s a good philosophy but I don’t think it applies to many collectors. Majority of collectors cannot remain focused in one field for decades.

That just may be proof of the law. If a collector has only been involved in their collection for a few years, they are unlikely to encounter anything especially rare, to know that anything is especially rare, or to purchase anything that is especially rare.

asheland · October 25, 2019 9:54AM

Great write up. I agree..

ctf_error_coins · October 25, 2019 9:57AM

This you will only see once !!!

david3142 · October 25, 2019 10:15AM

This is actually an example of the Copernican Principle, which is used in cosmology:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copernican_principle

Obviously, the main drivers of the calculation will be how long you’ve been looking and how many of the potential observations you’ve witnessed. Someone who has been casually collecting for 20 years might not have seen as many coins in his specialty as someone that’s new but peruses multiple websites daily and attends major and/or minor shows weekly.

The two lessons one can draw from the above are 1) patience as you start out and 2) aggressiveness for standout material once you’ve been collecting long enough to know the difference.

keets · October 25, 2019 10:53AM

I suppose it is OK to think like this but it pre-supposes that you are getting out to a lot of shows, shops and other venues as well as looking for certain things constantly. I choose to stick with what Insider said and to work on my knowledge base.

to emphasize that point, I probably need more than my fingers and toes to count the number of times I have found something within weeks/months of reading about it in some Numismatic publication.

Insider2 · October 25, 2019 11:51AM

I agree with the OP. But it is only valid for very experienced people. The law can be expanded to include almost anything (off the subject of numismatics) and you don't need to be buying something. If a person is very knowledgeable about a field, they will know when they have not encountered something before.

Example: A collector of picture postcards of Washington DC for fifty years encounters a view card she has never seen anywhere before.

To return to coins, IMO, the "law" also applies to grading observations. Most longtime numismatists know a "special" coin when they see it. That applies to shipwreck $20 gold and 1964 Kennedy half dollars!

MFeld · October 25, 2019 12:39PM

It’s a matter of opportunity and perspective. For various reasons, one person might see a particularly rare coin and/or quality of coin (or other collectible) far more frequently than most others do.

BuffaloIronTail · October 25, 2019 12:40PM

@FredWeinberg said:
I like to quote famous NY dealer Lester Merkin,
who told me:

"Sometimes the opportunity to buy a rare coin
is rarer than the coin."

Absolutely Fred...........Absolutely.

Pete

WCC · October 25, 2019 1:28PM

I agree with the OP, but don't agree it applies to more than a very low percentage of the collector base if limited to their primary collecting interest.

Nap · October 25, 2019 2:55PM

I’ve heard a corollary for the less fortunate of us.

Whenever you buy an expensive and rare piece, two or three others immediately show up on the market, cheaper and nicer.

Catbert · October 25, 2019 3:14PM

I don't see the rule applying to type collecting. There's always another coin within a series that may wow that just has a different date or mint mark.

Regarding the box of 20 approach, I also think it is somewhat irrelevant since whatever you place in your 20 could be anything, from any country at that.

Liberation is not placing coin choice restrictions on one's collection (assuming certain quality standards are maintained).

Walkerfan · October 25, 2019 3:17PM

Great post and I have always used this strategy.

I feel this way about MANY of my early Walkers.

Even, when I'm not prepared to buy.....I find a way to pick it up (finance, trade, sell duplicates or ones you KNOW you can replace, eat PB & J for a year LOL...whatever it takes!!), as you may never see it again.....OR WORSE....you may see it again in new plastic at TRIPLE the price!

Another great quote by an unknown author:

"There are very few coins that I bought and now regret it but there are many coins that I DIDN'T buy and DO regret not buying now."

Yorkshireman · October 25, 2019 3:58PM

I like this idea and now can’t wait to get to my next show!

mustangmanbob · October 25, 2019 5:05PM

It is not just coins. In areas where my knowledge is slightly above a babbling idiot, I buy not impulsively but decisively as I have seen tons of whatever, but this is the exception, and it will not last, so go big or go home empty.

Coinstartled · October 25, 2019 5:54PM

Got outbid on an error 1885-CC Morgan tonight.

I am guessing that Tom was the high bidder.

OldIndianNutKase · October 25, 2019 6:38PM

Toms First Law can apply to not only very experienced and aged collectors, but with online research capabilities like CoinFacts, even less experienced collectors can rate a coin on factors other than its numerical grade. I have often bought coins with a unique look (usually toning) that have a technical grade that is less than a higher rated coin in my Registry sets. And at some point in time I will include those in my Registry sets which will downgrade the set, but will move beyond the object of pure technical grading.

OINK

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