Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
IRAN blew up two oil tankers then shot down our drone in international waters. If you follow trend in Oil it tends to change during threats of oil embargoes and energy sector flow disruption
@coinpalice said:
it's 2011 all over again, 1,380 and climbing. stacking pays off sooner or later
Lol, interesting but the run in silver was plus 8x, gold plus 3x, if no profit booked then a waste of capital to get return from, is pretty amazing all the geniuses here and pm pompadour’s also have now missed where they should have been invested in again, funny they still think they know everything lol, instead of buying, selling piddly modern booyon beanie babies, they should have had you all in palladium and rhodium, I think they are precious metals, oh I forgot gold is money, oh yea silver is money, dang sorry I forgot...
Maybe you forgot that ever since 1999, when Graham, Leach, Bliley was enacted, there is no separation between mortgage lending and commercial banking which allowed the obscene leverage via a witches' brew of financial derivatives, and since 2008 the bad debt from the mortgage loan debacle was never addressed other than to give the banking criminals a free pass. There's even more leverage now than in 2008 by several multiples.
Maybe you've also forgotten that debt service on $22 trillion is dragging the real economy down such that interest rates can never be allowed to rise, not to mention the +$21 trillion hidden in the DoD and HUD books that are now inaccessible due to brand-spanking new accounting rules that allow the data to be classified as a national security matter in accounting silos for use by the bureaucracy as needed. This has recently been well-documented by Kathryn Austin Fitts and James Skidmore* - money that you and I will be paying for in taxes, higher prices and loss of services when we need them most.
So, buy those stocks instead of metals. The metals have been a bargain for the past 8 years. Stocks are overvalued and are being propped up by the Fed. The BoJ owns 1/2 of all Japanese stocks. The bankers own 1/2 of all Japanese means of production, and yet they produce nothing. Think about that for a moment. There will be a time to invest, but only after the corruption is rooted out of DC and NYC.
I don't need to make 8X or 3X on my metals, although I probably will. All I really need is not to see it vanish when the markets have their infarction.
correction - Mark Skidmore
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Not me. I'd never have guessed this.
You have to wonder, "what's the limit to how wide the spread can go?"
My interpretation is - financial & geopolitical uncertainty (gold up); industrial demand & consumer demand breakdown (platinum down). Under those assumptions, it seems that the spread can go even wider, but jeepers - what does that mean? I still don't understand palladium being so high relative to platinum. I really don't.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Boy, I sure never guessed this. What's funny is, nobody is selling it locally, I haven't bought a piece of gold in two weeks in the shop since the run up. two weeks prior gold was coming in by the truck load, had to make 3 trips in one week to the refinery, due to running out of money. Should have kept some I guess!
Basically yes. Gold has been in a 5 yr bottoming or basing pattern. And recently it was like trying to hold a beach ball under water. Eventually you can't. It was just a matter of time before it retraced a significant part of the drop from $1920 to $1045. That's almost $900. Gold usually does 50% or 61% retraces. Figure from $1500-$1600 as a target. But considering the 5 yr Inverted H&S pattern projects to around $1650....the exact level where gold fell off the cliff in April 2011....it's going to retrace that sudden drop by 2020....if not as early as this year.
It's called Transactional Analysis. It has little to do with world events....pick any one of them...it's just a coincidence one of them occurred around the breakout. The media always assigns the nearest occurring "event" as the cause. If it wasn't the FED it would be NOKO. If not that then China Tarriffs. It's always something though. Once the neckline popped around $1365 that was it.....POP. Nothing holding gold back now. It had been held by the 89 month moving average for the past 5 yrs. It finally blew that way this year. Strong support is still the 144 mma back around $1250.
Since 2011, the value of the dollar has declined 12 percent. In inflation-adjusted dollars, gold will need to reach $2183 to break its all-time record high.
@Smudge said:
Silver is due. May be next. GSR ratio is very high now.unless I buy some.
What is this ratio supposed to be? Gold is about 92X the value of silver + or - as of now.
I've heard the number 50x being thrown around, which would make silver $29 an oz.
@jmski52 said:
Maybe you forgot that ever since 1999, when Graham, Leach, Bliley was enacted, there is no separation between mortgage lending and commercial banking which allowed the obscene leverage via a witches' brew of financial derivatives, and since 2008 the bad debt from the mortgage loan debacle was never addressed other than to give the banking criminals a free pass. There's even more leverage now than in 2008 by several multiples.
Maybe you've also forgotten that debt service on $22 trillion is dragging the real economy down such that interest rates can never be allowed to rise, not to mention the +$21 trillion hidden in the DoD and HUD books that are now inaccessible due to brand-spanking new accounting rules that allow the data to be classified as a national security matter in accounting silos for use by the bureaucracy as needed. This has recently been well-documented by Kathryn Austin Fitts and James Skidmore* - money that you and I will be paying for in taxes, higher prices and loss of services when we need them most.
A few very good points you made and I agree with 10)%. GLB opened the US to large scale financial collapses (Too Big To Fail) with each downturn. Its funny how the profits banks make are private and the losses tend to be public and no one seems to care when Obama doubled the national debt overnight to "save the financial system". That was engineered that way.
In regards to the 22 Trillion debt, we will never see interest rates where they were pre 2007. The interest on the debt will drown the US and taxpayers if it ever goes above 4%. Just like all politicians, the can will just get kicked down the road and our future will continue to be mortgaged until the next big event.
Being a millennial, this is one of the reasons I gravitated to collecting coins/PM's. I see the writing on the wall with what will HAVE TO happen in the future with taxes. My wife and I have been diligent about saving and investing and have been trying to contribute as much into our Roth401k's (post-tax) as much as possible. I strongly believe we will be in a much more draconian tax environment when my wife and I go to retire around 2050. I would rather pay my taxes at todays rates than at the rates down the road that will inevitably be higher. Negative interest rate policy will be on the table for the next major downturn along with partial account confiscation, which was first tested in Cyprus back in 2012-2013.
Negative interest rate policy will be on the table for the next major downturn along with partial account confiscation, which was first tested in Cyprus back in 2012-2013.
I forgot to mention the quiet changes to the banking regulations that re-classified bank deposits as unsecured loans to the bank, rather than an asset you directly own that is "on deposit" with the bank. Big difference.
Being a millennial, this is one of the reasons I gravitated to collecting coins/PM's. I see the writing on the wall with what will HAVE TO happen in the future with taxes.
In your age bracket, given the historical performance of stocks you probably can't afford not to have stock market exposure. However, let me add some perspective. Back in 2006-2007, I sensed a problem and removed all of our investments from all of our IRA accounts, taking the 10% penalty along the way. I bought Modern Bullion "collectable" coins and also some straight bullion coins and subsequently enjoyed some very nice gains. Then, in 2008 when the liquidity crunch and banking crisis occurred, bullion went down about 40% or so while stocks went down by 50% or so. That was a test.
What happened next was interesting. My bullion and collectable bullion coins recovered very quickly and went on to more nice gains while the stock market continued to suffer significantly a couple more years until several rounds of bailouts & QE were implemented. That's what baked my strategy into the cake. None of the fundamental financial & fiscal problems have ever been addressed and I do believe that we're in for a big redux at some point, not too far down the pike.
At that point, I went completely long term. I didn't participate in the past 10 years of stock market gains. Instead, I've bought metals consistently at fairly good prices and I have no qualms whatsoever about my position in metals. I sleep fine.
The central banks have been buying gold, and the dollar is under pressure from all directions around the world for various reasons. My biggest concern is whether or not US citizens will be allowed to own and trade in precious metals when a crisis develops. I don't really have a lot of trust in the politicians or bankers. We shall see.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Jmski, Thanks for calling me out as I do remember those salad years particularly from the Mint which produced Winner after winner after winner. That was an exciting and fun time on the forum. That was a time of great learning and RoadRunner was super hot... Good to see you back!
As far as the spot price of the precious metals, I have a hard time predicting.
Short of the sales tax implications. I will continue to stack PM’s, only.
I have always and will always be a bullion man.
@jmski52 said: Negative interest rate policy will be on the table for the next major downturn along with partial account confiscation, which was first tested in Cyprus back in 2012-2013.
I forgot to mention the quiet changes to the banking regulations that re-classified bank deposits as unsecured loans to the bank, rather than an asset you directly own that is "on deposit" with the bank. Big difference.
Being a millennial, this is one of the reasons I gravitated to collecting coins/PM's. I see the writing on the wall with what will HAVE TO happen in the future with taxes.
In your age bracket, given the historical performance of stocks you probably can't afford not to have stock market exposure. However, let me add some perspective. Back in 2006-2007, I sensed a problem and removed all of our investments from all of our IRA accounts, taking the 10% penalty along the way. I bought Modern Bullion "collectable" coins and also some straight bullion coins and subsequently enjoyed some very nice gains. Then, in 2008 when the liquidity crunch and banking crisis occurred, bullion went down about 40% or so while stocks went down by 50% or so. That was a
We are both good savers and both work in the financial industry, so we know the importance of contributing a good portion of our income to retirement accounts. I have been increasing my PM exposure as the US stock market repeatedly hits highs and metals look to be a good value proposition. We will always take the free $$$ from our employer(s) 401k match and generous employee stock purchase plan (20% under lowest stock price of the quarter) but we are becoming increasingly more conservative in our equities exposure the last few months. It's not always bad to lock in gains on a portion of our accounts ...especially if your risk tolerance changes up.
No one knows what will happen with any market, so we try to have our hands a bit in each of them and try to not get too greedy.
Looks like the Fed is jawboning that they may not, or don't want to cut rates in July. Bullard comments from last night and Powell comments from a little while ago.
Dollar indices up, stock market still off. Gold doesn't look hurt too badly. We shall see..
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said:
Looks like the Fed is jawboning that they may not, or don't want to cut rates in July. Bullard comments from last night and Powell comments from a little while ago.
Dollar indices up, stock market still off. Gold doesn't look hurt too badly. We shall see..
@thebeav said:
I would have thought, at these gold numbers, silver would be closer to 18 bucks......
Silver is often late to the party. It was in the 1970's, where gold out-performed it from 1970-1978. It wasn't until spring of 1979 to Jan 1980 that silver caught up and then blew away gold. And when gold lifted off in 1999-2003 gaining 50%....silver actually went lower in those several years due the recession...silver was acting like an industrial metal. Silver peaks late in PM moves. Though it was the early peaker in spring 2011 while gold lasted longer into Sept 2011 due to the added pressure of the debt crisis. The gold to silver ratio at 90-1 is at a 20+ yr extremes. It will eventually start heading back to the mid range of 45-55. And after that, probably back to 15-30 when the stock market finally tanks at the end of a 80-100 year rally. Somewhere in the next 5-14 years the stock market and housing markets will get hammered but good....similar to 1894 and 1930 but in a "2024" digital/cyber cloud type of way.
you just gotta love America.
It is not really fun watching theFed implode
Can you imagine actual human beings with a brain did what they
did, slowly destroyed a currency over 105 years.
they were a private organization allowed to illegally manipulate
the value of currency and destroy its buying power.
There is little value to the Dollar, the USA is a house of cards collapsing
from debt, and a stock market bubble is the lipstick on the pig.
Gold must be managed to much higher levels if the Fed wants the rest
of the world to keep buying our debt.
It is that simple.
Sad that the central banks are buying physical gold like drunken sailors,
yet they are not guiding you into physical gold/silver to save yourself, got gold?
Comments
Except for confidence/perception.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Thanks!
I knew it would happen.
“Knock, knock, knockin’ on Heaven’s Doh-Wah!”
the Friday and Monday pm market will be key days on where this is going to go
I just saw $1400, another $100 and my chickens are getting a brand new coop! Noice!!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Gold $1402
Platinum $811
Spread $591!
Never seen it this high . . .
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
wow! 1402 to 1410 with one refresh
Loving it. I have a few more cards on the table for this run!
I bought gold when it was cheaper. I've been selling it when it was higher.
Why has this happened? I dunno.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
Here we go..nice to see gold moving up again and really liking Pd now. Wish Pt would come back a bit!
Boom!
Again tonight? Very interesting!
I knew it would happen.
I don't know.... I might need to sell on this 1400 spike and wait for it to settle back down
Collector, occasional seller
I don't know.... I might need to sell on this 1400 spike and wait for it to settle back down
You have to ask yourself, "Do I feel lucky"?
Well, do ya?
I knew it would happen.
Not this am
IRAN blew up two oil tankers then shot down our drone in international waters. If you follow trend in Oil it tends to change during threats of oil embargoes and energy sector flow disruption
Best place to buy !
Bronze Associate member
Gold $1402
Platinum $811
Spread $591!
Never seen it this high . . .
Therefore, what might be a relatively good move in an environment where metals have support?
Hmmmmmm……………..let me think...……………...
I knew it would happen.
War drums
Sounds about right
Not really...
Collector, occasional seller
$1,399.90
I knew it would happen.
Fed rate change late in 2019 early 2020 will only support gold and increase prices IMHO so with long game in mind I still buy at same rate.
Best place to buy !
Bronze Associate member
$1,407.60
I knew it would happen.
Lol, interesting but the run in silver was plus 8x, gold plus 3x, if no profit booked then a waste of capital to get return from, is pretty amazing all the geniuses here and pm pompadour’s also have now missed where they should have been invested in again, funny they still think they know everything lol, instead of buying, selling piddly modern booyon beanie babies, they should have had you all in palladium and rhodium, I think they are precious metals, oh I forgot gold is money, oh yea silver is money, dang sorry I forgot...
Maybe you forgot that ever since 1999, when Graham, Leach, Bliley was enacted, there is no separation between mortgage lending and commercial banking which allowed the obscene leverage via a witches' brew of financial derivatives, and since 2008 the bad debt from the mortgage loan debacle was never addressed other than to give the banking criminals a free pass. There's even more leverage now than in 2008 by several multiples.
Maybe you've also forgotten that debt service on $22 trillion is dragging the real economy down such that interest rates can never be allowed to rise, not to mention the +$21 trillion hidden in the DoD and HUD books that are now inaccessible due to brand-spanking new accounting rules that allow the data to be classified as a national security matter in accounting silos for use by the bureaucracy as needed. This has recently been well-documented by Kathryn Austin Fitts and James Skidmore* - money that you and I will be paying for in taxes, higher prices and loss of services when we need them most.
So, buy those stocks instead of metals. The metals have been a bargain for the past 8 years. Stocks are overvalued and are being propped up by the Fed. The BoJ owns 1/2 of all Japanese stocks. The bankers own 1/2 of all Japanese means of production, and yet they produce nothing. Think about that for a moment. There will be a time to invest, but only after the corruption is rooted out of DC and NYC.
I don't need to make 8X or 3X on my metals, although I probably will. All I really need is not to see it vanish when the markets have their infarction.
I knew it would happen.
Silver is due. May be next. GSR ratio is very high now.unless I buy some.
. . . and platinum $806.
The spread is now $601!!
Who would have guessed?
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
The spread is now $601!!
Who would have guessed?
Not me. I'd never have guessed this.
You have to wonder, "what's the limit to how wide the spread can go?"
My interpretation is - financial & geopolitical uncertainty (gold up); industrial demand & consumer demand breakdown (platinum down). Under those assumptions, it seems that the spread can go even wider, but jeepers - what does that mean? I still don't understand palladium being so high relative to platinum. I really don't.
I knew it would happen.
Boy, I sure never guessed this. What's funny is, nobody is selling it locally, I haven't bought a piece of gold in two weeks in the shop since the run up. two weeks prior gold was coming in by the truck load, had to make 3 trips in one week to the refinery, due to running out of money. Should have kept some I guess!
Basically yes. Gold has been in a 5 yr bottoming or basing pattern. And recently it was like trying to hold a beach ball under water. Eventually you can't. It was just a matter of time before it retraced a significant part of the drop from $1920 to $1045. That's almost $900. Gold usually does 50% or 61% retraces. Figure from $1500-$1600 as a target. But considering the 5 yr Inverted H&S pattern projects to around $1650....the exact level where gold fell off the cliff in April 2011....it's going to retrace that sudden drop by 2020....if not as early as this year.
It's called Transactional Analysis. It has little to do with world events....pick any one of them...it's just a coincidence one of them occurred around the breakout. The media always assigns the nearest occurring "event" as the cause. If it wasn't the FED it would be NOKO. If not that then China Tarriffs. It's always something though. Once the neckline popped around $1365 that was it.....POP. Nothing holding gold back now. It had been held by the 89 month moving average for the past 5 yrs. It finally blew that way this year. Strong support is still the 144 mma back around $1250.
Since 2011, the value of the dollar has declined 12 percent. In inflation-adjusted dollars, gold will need to reach $2183 to break its all-time record high.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
What is this ratio supposed to be? Gold is about 92X the value of silver + or - as of now.
I've heard the number 50x being thrown around, which would make silver $29 an oz.
It's called Transactional Analysis. It has little to do with world events....
It's really good to see you posting again, roadrunner. Does Transactional Analysis have anything to do with fractals?
This nice run in gold is now several days old. The data from last night is still holding. We live in interesting times.
I wonder if we will see another era like 2006-2008 when Modern Bullion was hot and getting hotter (paging MilesWaits).
I knew it would happen.
A few very good points you made and I agree with 10)%. GLB opened the US to large scale financial collapses (Too Big To Fail) with each downturn. Its funny how the profits banks make are private and the losses tend to be public and no one seems to care when Obama doubled the national debt overnight to "save the financial system". That was engineered that way.
In regards to the 22 Trillion debt, we will never see interest rates where they were pre 2007. The interest on the debt will drown the US and taxpayers if it ever goes above 4%. Just like all politicians, the can will just get kicked down the road and our future will continue to be mortgaged until the next big event.
Being a millennial, this is one of the reasons I gravitated to collecting coins/PM's. I see the writing on the wall with what will HAVE TO happen in the future with taxes. My wife and I have been diligent about saving and investing and have been trying to contribute as much into our Roth401k's (post-tax) as much as possible. I strongly believe we will be in a much more draconian tax environment when my wife and I go to retire around 2050. I would rather pay my taxes at todays rates than at the rates down the road that will inevitably be higher. Negative interest rate policy will be on the table for the next major downturn along with partial account confiscation, which was first tested in Cyprus back in 2012-2013.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/07/29/bank-of-cyprus-depositors-lose-savings/2595837/
6/25/19:
Gold: $1432
Silver: $15.40
Negative interest rate policy will be on the table for the next major downturn along with partial account confiscation, which was first tested in Cyprus back in 2012-2013.
I forgot to mention the quiet changes to the banking regulations that re-classified bank deposits as unsecured loans to the bank, rather than an asset you directly own that is "on deposit" with the bank. Big difference.
Being a millennial, this is one of the reasons I gravitated to collecting coins/PM's. I see the writing on the wall with what will HAVE TO happen in the future with taxes.
In your age bracket, given the historical performance of stocks you probably can't afford not to have stock market exposure. However, let me add some perspective. Back in 2006-2007, I sensed a problem and removed all of our investments from all of our IRA accounts, taking the 10% penalty along the way. I bought Modern Bullion "collectable" coins and also some straight bullion coins and subsequently enjoyed some very nice gains. Then, in 2008 when the liquidity crunch and banking crisis occurred, bullion went down about 40% or so while stocks went down by 50% or so. That was a test.
What happened next was interesting. My bullion and collectable bullion coins recovered very quickly and went on to more nice gains while the stock market continued to suffer significantly a couple more years until several rounds of bailouts & QE were implemented. That's what baked my strategy into the cake. None of the fundamental financial & fiscal problems have ever been addressed and I do believe that we're in for a big redux at some point, not too far down the pike.
At that point, I went completely long term. I didn't participate in the past 10 years of stock market gains. Instead, I've bought metals consistently at fairly good prices and I have no qualms whatsoever about my position in metals. I sleep fine.
The central banks have been buying gold, and the dollar is under pressure from all directions around the world for various reasons. My biggest concern is whether or not US citizens will be allowed to own and trade in precious metals when a crisis develops. I don't really have a lot of trust in the politicians or bankers. We shall see.
I knew it would happen.
I would have thought, at these gold numbers, silver would be closer to 18 bucks......
Jmski, Thanks for calling me out as I do remember those salad years particularly from the Mint which produced Winner after winner after winner. That was an exciting and fun time on the forum. That was a time of great learning and RoadRunner was super hot... Good to see you back!
As far as the spot price of the precious metals, I have a hard time predicting.
Short of the sales tax implications. I will continue to stack PM’s, only.
I have always and will always be a bullion man.
and silver is only up 4 cents
I flipped my gold today.
I want to see both moving up to feel the joy.
anyway, the next ebay bucks quarter is right around the corner. I have to open things up again.
We are both good savers and both work in the financial industry, so we know the importance of contributing a good portion of our income to retirement accounts. I have been increasing my PM exposure as the US stock market repeatedly hits highs and metals look to be a good value proposition. We will always take the free $$$ from our employer(s) 401k match and generous employee stock purchase plan (20% under lowest stock price of the quarter) but we are becoming increasingly more conservative in our equities exposure the last few months. It's not always bad to lock in gains on a portion of our accounts
...especially if your risk tolerance changes up.
No one knows what will happen with any market, so we try to have our hands a bit in each of them and try to not get too greedy.
Just went to 1415... is it coming back down now?... hm
Collector, occasional seller
Looks like the Fed is jawboning that they may not, or don't want to cut rates in July. Bullard comments from last night and Powell comments from a little while ago.
Dollar indices up, stock market still off. Gold doesn't look hurt too badly. We shall see..
I knew it would happen.
Yeah, looks like it's already recovered some.
Collector, occasional seller
Silver is often late to the party. It was in the 1970's, where gold out-performed it from 1970-1978. It wasn't until spring of 1979 to Jan 1980 that silver caught up and then blew away gold. And when gold lifted off in 1999-2003 gaining 50%....silver actually went lower in those several years due the recession...silver was acting like an industrial metal. Silver peaks late in PM moves. Though it was the early peaker in spring 2011 while gold lasted longer into Sept 2011 due to the added pressure of the debt crisis. The gold to silver ratio at 90-1 is at a 20+ yr extremes. It will eventually start heading back to the mid range of 45-55. And after that, probably back to 15-30 when the stock market finally tanks at the end of a 80-100 year rally. Somewhere in the next 5-14 years the stock market and housing markets will get hammered but good....similar to 1894 and 1930 but in a "2024" digital/cyber cloud type of way.
lol well it just can't keep going up and up day after day. At some point it needs to take a breather. Still up for the day.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
you just gotta love America.
It is not really fun watching theFed implode
Can you imagine actual human beings with a brain did what they
did, slowly destroyed a currency over 105 years.
they were a private organization allowed to illegally manipulate
the value of currency and destroy its buying power.
There is little value to the Dollar, the USA is a house of cards collapsing
from debt, and a stock market bubble is the lipstick on the pig.
Gold must be managed to much higher levels if the Fed wants the rest
of the world to keep buying our debt.
It is that simple.
Sad that the central banks are buying physical gold like drunken sailors,
yet they are not guiding you into physical gold/silver to save yourself, got gold?
I sold yesterday, so we will see $1500 before the next ebay bucks deal next quarter.