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Changing gears to more unopened
VintagemanEd
Posts: 922 ✭✭✭
I have found myself pushing toward buying more bbce unopened boxes than expensive psa cards with the Pwcc issues going on. Anyone else in that same mind set?
1
VintagemanEd
Posts: 922 ✭✭✭
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Already there.
Been there all along, my friend. I don't, however, buy BBCE....yet. I have a feeling I'll lose some interest in unopened someday. (I'm a realist.) When that day comes, I'll probably want to purchase the BBCE-wrapped boxes to simply archive. Right now, though, I like to display the boxes unopened, like they were in the stores, and I like to feel the packs. I'm also not buying unopened that is on the targeted list of resealing and tampering as much. I'm also very confident in being able to detect tampering and resealing. So I'll go on buying unopened from those years I love most: 1981-1986.
I recently (last week) picked up a box of 1985 Fleer Wax and a box of 1982 Fleer Cello at a very decent price from a local woman who used to own a pretty big LCC in north Philly. There may be more to unearth.
Andy
Nope.
not there yet
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_players_from_Panama
Been there since November
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
Not me. Dabble in unopened but not my focus.
Nope. I do this for fun.
Diversify
I have a continuously variable speed transmission and can be in all gears at once. No need to change gears.
Kris
My 1971 Topps adventure - Davis Men in Black
Has unopened ever been "out" of favor in the hobby? After the Great Recession it's been up pretty much every year.
What a coincidence... I just got an order back from BBCE today, and I'm going to list 6 unopened boxes on my website later this evening.
72 Topps basketball box
72 Topps football Series 2 box
Garbage Pail Kids Series 1 box
Garbage Pail Kids Series 15 box
'76 King Kong box
'78 Kiss Series 1 box
All BBCE wrapped
Message me if interested
DesertIceSports.Com
Yep. Been there for about 18 months. I was having trouble winning auctions and much of my unopened cane via BIN or Offers Accepted.
wow...that series 1 gpk box must be a pricey one.
Still slabbin'
Yeah, and it's a nice one too... I think they're right around $10k right now.
DesertIceSports.Com
Nope. I collect cards, not packaging.
Yaz Master Set
#1 Gino Cappelletti master set
#1 John Hannah master set
Also collecting Andre Tippett, Patriots Greats' RCs, 1964 Venezuelan Topps, 1974 Topps Red Sox
Very nice, but too much coin for me! I would be interested in a nice BBCE wrapped box of series 5 however. Those seem to be in the $150-200 range. I think I had the complete series 5 stuck to the back of my bedroom door as a kid. That was right before I started collecting baseball cards.
Kris
My 1971 Topps adventure - Davis Men in Black
No matter what you do in this hobby there is always the potential for tampering and fraud. I started back in the hobby with collecting vintage packs/boxes. After seeing so many people resealing packs and selling them on eBay I decided to avoid it. I know buying from BBCE tends to ensure that the boxes and packs have not been tampered with but it seems like every time in this hobby you think you are safe you find out later you were not.
Agree..unless its junk wax !!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_players_from_Panama
Holy Moly
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_players_from_Panama
I don't have one of those right now, just the bookend boxes: Series 1 and Series 15.
DesertIceSports.Com
Unopened is red hot right now and prices continue to rise. With the advent of vintage breakers, that is not going to change anytime soon, either. A PSA 9 1974 cello pack just sold for over $1,500 a couple nights ago.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Jump in - the water is fine 😉
KC
I have been into vintage football cellos for a while now, nothing big time just mostly graded packs with my favorite players/ teams showing.
I am trying to get as much as I can now before prices get out of hand.
PC Walter Payton - Bear Down!
Sadly, I've been thinking about this quite a bit since the latest controversy, ESPECIALLY with regards to unopened . . .
Those are beautiful!!! Very jealous of the Brett packs!
I specialize in turning unopened in un-unopened. So I don’t buy very much.
lol
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_players_from_Panama
For those who think the value of unopened will keep going up exponentially forever, I would just ask: is there ANY price point at which you would say it is a poor value, or can the usual “the supply is only going to decrease”, etc. be used to justify literally any price?
The potential of big hits is what keep prices up. As long as those hits keep going up, the boxes will follow. ..
You dont see 1992 Donruss Boxes going up
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_players_from_Panama
I think the interesting aspect of this question is that for a lot of the vintage unopened, we have already crossed that point statistically if the idea is that you can purchase a high dollar pack with a good chance for a high dollar hit. For instance, in any given wax pack, the odds of pulling a particular desired card is known. But the statistical odds of pulling that particular card in a grade that is high enough (9 or 10) to cover the cost of the pack is astronomical. Take for instance the thread that most of us are watching where all sorts of unopened product from the 1980's is being ripped in vast quantities. His pull rate on probable 10s is down in the very low single digits, percentage wise, across all years and all products. Pulling a probable 10 of a particular card is going to be exponentially smaller. So for a huge chunk of higher value unopened (1970's and earlier) the value is not in the potential for a high grade pull, but in the value of the scarcity of the unopened product itself. Watch all of the pack breakers that are making tons of money right now. They really aren't pulling many high value cards that would more than pay for the cost of the entire unopened pack if you were to have purchased that pack and busted it yourself. I am sure that there is some sort of ceiling for some unopened simply based on supply and demand. But for now, high quality unopened is increasing in value at rates that are almost impossible to catalog properly. And even junk wax/unopened is starting to finally creep up, though most of it is not back up to what its retail cost was 30 years ago.
kevin
I think most who collect unopened have no intention of ever ripping it and don't really care about the very low possibility of pulling a high grade key card.
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
Yeah, I’m aware of all that. I never mentioned the price of unopened being tied to the value of the contents. All I’m asking is, as a 1971 wax pack goes from $500 to $1000 to $3500, is there any point at which the true believers will say, “That’s ridiculous”?
Totally agree. That's me. I love collecting unopened and am not intending to rip it. It is just fun to have it in its natural state.
kevin
For '71 Topps? LOL Probably not
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
Hey, I love unopened packs. And I wish pricing would return to semi-reasonable levels so I could go back to buying them 😀
Any legit Pre 1978 Topps is white hot. I don't think we will ever see pre 1978 stuff return to what we used to think was "reasonable". Even in the next economic downturn.
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
PAUL MAUL how much for the Nettles rack LOL
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
what is thought about BBCE wrapped cases? For example would 3 BBCE FASC wrapped rack boxes sell for significantly more than 1 BBCE wrapped 3 rack box case?
It would definitely sell for more- the FASC cases/packs, etc. are more coveted because they may not be pieced together, meaning any packs with stars showing or packs in better condition may still be inside. Regular wrapped items may have packs pieced together from multiple boxes or sources.
PC Walter Payton - Bear Down!
I actually don’t agree with that. In December of 2014, I passed on a beautiful GAI 9 1971 wax pack because I thought it was insanely overpriced at $1000. Several knowledgeable board members agreed with me on that. What has happened in the ensuing 4 years that suggests that a PSA 7 pack should be worth $3500? The huge price spike was only in response to the pack breaking fad. I think there’s every possibility that that phenomenon will run its course and lose its luster once people realize what a dead end those slots are. If that happens a price dip is not only possible but likely.
Disagree. I believe we are in a new world with unopened and you can kiss the recent "old days" bye bye
We shall see!
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
Just remember....throughout the history of financial markets, every time someone has called a “new normal” or “new paradigm” that violated all historic norms, trouble was a-brewing!
I'd like to believe PaulMaul is correct in assuming that eventually people will realize what a true dead end buying slots in vintage breaks is. But, we are not dealing with hobby mentality with regards to breaking vintage....this is straight up gambling. So, while I do agree that the hobby mentality would eventually course correct itself I think the gambling mentality supersedes that thought process completely and that will not die down until availability becomes so limited that it sets the prices to a point where they can no longer afford the break slots.
There is a fundamental difference though between financial markets and collecting unopened product. As unopened product becomes tougher to acquire (just look at the BBCE inventory to witness that firsthand) prices will remain strong and continue to rise. I can see some leveling off in the future, but you will never be able to buy tougher vintage packs at 2014 or even 2016 prices, for that matter.
What is also being missed here is the impact vintage breaking has had on the value of unopened product. As long as packs are sold for significant premiums on a per card basis, you are going to see a correlation between that and pack prices. Is pack breaking just a fad or trend? Maybe, but my guess is it's here to stay.
I also think that for many years leading up to around 2012 or so, unopened prices were artificially low, as there was a long period of time leading up to that point when prices were relatively stagnant.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
"I think there’s every possibility that that phenomenon will run its course and lose its luster once people realize what a dead end those slots are. If that happens a price dip is not only possible but likely."
If people thought like that, the lottery wouldn't exist... Many, many people are willing to spend an unreasonable amount of money for the chance at a big score.
Never overestimate the intelligence of the average consumer.
DesertIceSports.Com
My unopened is getting opened. Minty fresh 88 Score. These will be worth something when cold fusion is a thing.
Kris
My 1971 Topps adventure - Davis Men in Black
Speaking of> @softparade said:
Speaking of unopened gambling that others have referred to as the new norm, someone hit the unopened lottery on Vintage Breaks YouTube last night when a 1979 OPC pack was opened to reveal a very nice Wayne Gretzky RC! Looks pretty darn centered to me.
It's the rush people get. T> @secretstash said:
And there you have it. The driving force behind why people love vintage breaks. The seats probably had to be cleaned after that Gretzky popped.