Silver price smack down
Goldminers
Posts: 4,352 ✭✭✭✭✭
10 days ago spot silver ask price per Kitco was around $16.20/ounce, but today it is down to $15.24/ounce a new low for the year.
Getting a lot harder for me to justify $50-$60 US Mint prices for 2019 silver proof eagles and silver dollar proof and uncirculated commemoratives. When adding grading fees for those who like slabs or registry sets, plus shipping, and considering future resale value I'm not so sure modern ones are all that precious anymore.
Edited to include the explanation I gave a few replies down as some stop here and don't see my real point that premiums are way up vs spot price.
What I was trying to say is I think in 2011 the silver price was high all over around $30 to 45 an ounce and the 2011 Army commemorative silver dollar proof was $54.95. Now silver price is say $15 an ounce and the 2019 silver dollar proofs are $55.95.
So I feel the Mint premium has gone up a lot vs the melt value, making downside risk a bit greater.
Comments
Even unc ASEs aren't really a bullion play
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
I'm not sure I understand how silver
going down 75 to 85 Cents (now $14.16)
makes a difference on whether to purchase
a $50 coin not.
On a BU bullion ASE, I understand .
I guess what I was trying to say is I think in 2011 the silver price was high all over around $30 to 45 an ounce and the 2011 Army commemorative silver dollar proof was $54.95. Now silver price is say $15 an ounce and the 2019 silver dollar proofs are $55.95.
So I feel the Mint premium has gone up a lot vs the melt value, making downside risk a bit greater.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Our rise to 4% GDP looks like a pipe dream. Corporations used the tax cuts to buy back stock enhancing shareholders investment. Who didn't see that coming?
OK, that makes sense -
you didn't mention the 2011 pricing
structure in the first post.
I understand now, and agree -
Your last sentence above is very true.
I could have waited and got a monster box for almost $500 less. This does this every year, it seems like. I buy, it drops. We should put a turkey on there instead of the eagle.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
What is that?
It's a mushroom cloud.
Will silver go up now?
Well, I bought a little yesterday. That did it.
That 22 trillion is National debt. If you add in the rest of the debt including households, business, state and local gov't, financial institutions, and the Federal Gov't the US total debt is $72 trillion.
And if the US Gov't had to follow GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) that US companies have to use to file their financial statements, including all the US unfunded liabilities like Social Security and Medicare it is a stunning $122 trillion. And that is before any additional new unfunded concepts like free Medicare and college for all, green new deals, etc.
Amazing the system even works at all.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
I don’t look at ASE silver proofs as a silver bullion investment just like gold eagle proofs are not a gold investment.
I've said for years...In corporate america it's always about the stock price
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House of cards combined with musical chairs. Better keep the musicians well paid so they don't stop playing.
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"To Be Esteemed Be Useful" - 1792 Birch Cent --- "I personally think we developed language because of our deep need to complain." - Lily Tomlin
I just bought 16 modern commemorative dollars for $18 or less on ebay this week. Definitely best to wait and buy most commemoratives in the aftermarket.
Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value. Zero. Voltaire. Ebay coinbowlllc
IMO, the silver spot melt value is the bullion part. The rest of the "premium", whether a little or a lot (bu vs proof ASE, common vs 'rare' kind of bar) is the numismatic or collectible value. Both are real value, both are variable components, and both are subject to supply, demand, and arbitrage.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
@Goldminers I feel your pain. In 2006 the mint came out with the collector version with the W mintmark that you buy directly from the mint. On the mint's site it is referred to as the Uncirculated Coin.
Well, in March 2006 the spot price of silver was at $14.00 an ounce and the Uncirculated ASE was $21.00. $7 over spot.
Today the spot price of silver is just over $15.00 an ounce ($15.11) and the Unc ASE is $46.95. Or about $32 over spot.
I don’t really care I just buy because I have a sickness. A compulsion to buy might as well be coins.
Look at Japan.
Then maybe take this to a political chat room. This does nothing but derail threads.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
except that "collectible value" inevitably shrinks in subsequent years which makes them NOT a bullion play unless you buy them years later after they've depreciated.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
edited..
Hey nevermind
Go at it you savvy pundits
"Inspiration exists, but it has to find you working" Pablo Picasso
You like the lush packaging don't you ?
Let's not kid ourselves... the U.S. Mint is in the business of making money... and that includes milking the collector of as much as possible for what is IMO over-produced, heavily promoted, and mostly (while not exclusively) mediocre merchandise. It seems to me that it's scarcely better than the QVC/CCN coin hawkers one can find on the late night cable channels.
Smudge did it and admitted it.
Smackdowns are silver's way of reminding you that there's a reason it's called "poor man's gold."
They may be increasing numismatic premiums in a futile effort to change this result taken directly from the 2018 Annual report:
"The unit cost for both pennies (2.06 cents) and nickels (7.53 cents) remained above face value for the thirteenth consecutive fiscal year. Higher metal costs and higher unit costs generated a larger FY 2018 net loss ($119.0 million) for these two denominations compared to FY 2017 ($89.8 million). Compared to last year, FY 2018 average spot prices for nickel increased 28.7 percent to $13,141.41 per tonne, average copper prices rose 15.6 percent to $6,683.11, and average zinc prices increased 13.2 percent to $3,073.86."
If their business is to make money, Congress may need to reevaluate their metal composition again, because cents and nickels are a bit like guns. The vast majority (including me) that collect and use them, will never want to get rid of them.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Oh well.... prices rise and prices fall, I am not in this to make money... I collect because I like coins, especially silver and gold. Cheers, RickO
I buy very little modern, but I too think about bullion value when evaluating the buying price. The US Mint Apollo 11 roughly 1/4 oz gold has an $80 markup over gold spot and the 5-oz silver puck has a $150 markup over silver spot. I compared that to the Modern Coin Mart Apollo 11 Robbins medal restrike 1/2 oz gold commemorative which has a $1375 markup over gold spot and a $64 markup over silver spot for the 1 ounce coin (but this 1-oz coin also has space flown alloy).
I bought the US Mint gold proof and the MCM 1-ounce silver Robbins restrike MS70 w/space flown alloy. I'd love to have the 1/2 oz MCM Robbins restrike in gold but the price was just too far above spot price for me.
Silver has a complex history. More recently as a by-product of industrial scale Copper mining. When copper supply is cut down , new Silver supply diminishes. Various multitude of other factors. As I said complex history.
GLTA
100% Positive BST transactions
Blame it on the costs of a cheese burger, fries and drink. Somebody has to pay.
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
If silver ever drops back to it's 2000 spot price I might think about buying some. I said think.
Combined with massive above ground hoards like JP Morgan's 152 million ounces.
But I'm not sure my old customers might not have ....trillions..... of ounces.
https://sdbullion.com/blog/do-like-jp-morgan-is-doing-buy-silver-bullion/
My initial reaction, exactly...
The US Treasury REALLY just use the word pennies.
Infidels, Grab the torches and pitchforks.
Here's a different question: how come I can't see anything posted by mustangmanbob? I mean, no trace of the post at all. It's not like "ignore" where they are grayed out. On the front it says "most recent post by mustangmanbob" and then when I open this thread, I see nothing from him.
Now, maybe he has a way of blocking me. If so, I'd like to know how to pull off that trick!
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
Wanting to add on to your comment, I'm sitting on my hands right now.
"A dog breaks your heart only one time and that is when they pass on". Unknown
Silver has been smacked down a lot worse than Friday.
CC, Please see my reply to Mr. Weinberg that better explained my point, and his response about 5 down from my OP. I did not provide enough details in my OP.
Of course silver prices go up and down, but the Mint prices just stay the same or go up. When silver is down like now at $15 we get hit with a 250% premium to melt, but in 2011 and other years the Mint premium was only around 50% over melt.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set