It's like catching a falling knife - everyone wants to wait to see how low they will go, so it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy that they will go down. I just bought an NGC MS66 blast-white 1939 Oregon Trail for $510!
@spacehayduke said:
And I just paid way way way too much money for a toned Oregon.........
Best, SH
I remember it from your FUN images thread!! What an awesome coin. To the points I made in my post in this thread, it is a miracle that coin was (still) in a 65 holder.
Jeff
It is at CAC right now, we will see what they think......
@Broadstruck said:
I look at them as a buying opportunity as they are now priced like tokens.
I was just thinking the same thing. I think classic commems are more like exonumia than business issue coins.
Commems are great for those of us that do not want to or can't glance as the same design 73 times just with a different date and mint mark. I've only ever finished about 1/3 of the regular coins struck for circulation sets I've started, as I'd buy the key and semi key dates and then wouldn't bother with the common ones. So 50 different designs can be a breathe of fresh air instead of working on a Barber set for years always wondering if it's a Man or a Woman on the obverse?
To Err Is Human.... To Collect Err's Is Just Too Much Darn Tootin Fun!
@tommy44 said:
Interesting thread. I had about a dozen classic commems way prior to third party grading came about. Some common like the Monroe and Pilgrim, others no so common like Spanish Trail and Isabella. Sometimes I wish I still had them today.
I wonder if the drop in prices and apparent lack of interest in the series could be related to the plethora pf modern commems being cranked out by the mint. Who can, or wants to keep up?
I’m guessing the classics stand on their own, like circulation coins. I’m not sure how many people can keep up with modern commems.
@bolivarshagnasty said:
Many of the common Oregons are at 175 for an MS63, and 275 for an MS66! We have apparently NOT hit bottom.
Are those realized auction prices?
I kind of expect them to go lower aside from attractive toners and top pops. I think the fixed listing prices are keeping them higher than they would be at market rates.
Zoins, I assume they base the movement up or down on realized auction prices as well as ebay sales. There have been several threads on it lately, but I'm convinced the dreck (common examples with little or no eye appeal) being sold at auctions is bringing down the prices on eye appealing ones as well. No one buying dreck, so the entire market gets pulled down because the price guides don't reflect quality.
Regarding dreck, hopefully beans will take care of that. DWN reports huge price differences for bean and no bean in the gold market.
One thing that might help is a dealer specializing in Classic Commems with great photos. I’m not sure I’ve seen one, other than perhaps Larry Shepherd’s Simco coins.
They have lost 30.8 pct in last 3 years - PCGS 3000 Index.
Time to buy or sell out? I have a thirst for more.
I really like these coins and would just hate blow them out. I have a show coming up Feb 15 (Houston), Friday / Saturday show and no matter how I do want buy a really nice classic commem and nice gold coin. PM me if u need info on the show.
Just for the record not all is red as there's some green upswings especially the whole Texas series.
I've been seeing more major dealers stocking commems again since November who hadn't had much of anything inventory wise in years. My magic 8 ball sees a big marketing/promotional campaign on the series happening in the near future... As you can only kick a horse that's down so many times before it stands back up.
To Err Is Human.... To Collect Err's Is Just Too Much Darn Tootin Fun!
Isn't it just like anything else? The wigits drift downward and the fantastic hold their value? Take any series and pick the undergrade, or two grades below ... bargains galore.
I have to admit I've also been picking off modern commems in MS69 or PR69 - PCGS slabbed - many around $20. Dirt cheap and I've been doing them with my 9 year old and discussing the history depicted on the coin. I think that was mentioned earlier about history. If nothing else, being able to distract her from the "screens" with a shiny object and a history lesson is worth the whole set of moderns. I figure even with how many hundreds there are, it still couldn't get to $10k - but what a value in education, relationship and still only at 2x melt! Buy then raw and you are at melt. You guys need to use these commemoratives in the way they were intended.
@Broadstruck said:
I look at them as a buying opportunity as they are now priced like tokens.
I was just thinking the same thing. I think classic commems are more like exonumia than business issue coins.
Commems are great for those of us that do not want to or can't glance as the same design 73 times just with a different date and mint mark. I've only ever finished about 1/3 of the regular coins struck for circulation sets I've started, as I'd buy the key and semi key dates and then wouldn't bother with the common ones. So 50 different designs can be a breathe of fresh air instead of working on a Barber set for years always wondering if it's a Man or a Woman on the obverse?
Interesting thought as I like exonumia and errors similar to what I’ve seen you post. Do you collect classic commems? I have some but I don’t really collect them at the moment.
I am looking for some nice Texas halves but it has been tough sledding getting them without paying thru nose / bidding high. Would love put together complete set of Texas.
One thing that might help is a dealer specializing in Classic Commems with great photos. I’m not sure I’ve seen one, other than perhaps Larry Shepherd’s Simco coins.
I wonder how much the late Larry Whitlow had to do with controlling the Classic Commemoratives market in the early 2000's. I recall being at a coin show and a major dealer was quoting Larry Whitlow's bid price as the basis for the dealer's fingerprinted MS67 a "great deal."
@spacehayduke said:
And I just paid way way way too much money for a toned Oregon.........
Best, SH
I remember it from your FUN images thread!! What an awesome coin. To the points I made in my post in this thread, it is a miracle that coin was (still) in a 65 holder.
Jeff
It is at CAC right now, we will see what they think......
Best, SH
No way it doesn't CAC. I'll go 80% chance for Gold and 20% chance for Green. Good luck!!
Comments
I'm enjoying them right now. Prices aren't bad, and the space is not crowded.
It's like catching a falling knife - everyone wants to wait to see how low they will go, so it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy that they will go down. I just bought an NGC MS66 blast-white 1939 Oregon Trail for $510!
The report of classic commems hitting rock bottom is greatly exaggerated...
...they haven't nearly bottomed out yet.
It is at CAC right now, we will see what they think......
Best, SH
Commems are great for those of us that do not want to or can't glance as the same design 73 times just with a different date and mint mark. I've only ever finished about 1/3 of the regular coins struck for circulation sets I've started, as I'd buy the key and semi key dates and then wouldn't bother with the common ones. So 50 different designs can be a breathe of fresh air instead of working on a Barber set for years always wondering if it's a Man or a Woman on the obverse?
I’m guessing the classics stand on their own, like circulation coins. I’m not sure how many people can keep up with modern commems.
Regarding dreck, hopefully beans will take care of that. DWN reports huge price differences for bean and no bean in the gold market.
One thing that might help is a dealer specializing in Classic Commems with great photos. I’m not sure I’ve seen one, other than perhaps Larry Shepherd’s Simco coins.
They have lost 30.8 pct in last 3 years - PCGS 3000 Index.
Time to buy or sell out? I have a thirst for more.
I really like these coins and would just hate blow them out. I have a show coming up Feb 15 (Houston), Friday / Saturday show and no matter how I do want buy a really nice classic commem and nice gold coin. PM me if u need info on the show.
Just for the record not all is red as there's some green upswings especially the whole Texas series.
I've been seeing more major dealers stocking commems again since November who hadn't had much of anything inventory wise in years. My magic 8 ball sees a big marketing/promotional campaign on the series happening in the near future... As you can only kick a horse that's down so many times before it stands back up.
Isn't it just like anything else? The wigits drift downward and the fantastic hold their value? Take any series and pick the undergrade, or two grades below ... bargains galore.
I have to admit I've also been picking off modern commems in MS69 or PR69 - PCGS slabbed - many around $20. Dirt cheap and I've been doing them with my 9 year old and discussing the history depicted on the coin. I think that was mentioned earlier about history. If nothing else, being able to distract her from the "screens" with a shiny object and a history lesson is worth the whole set of moderns. I figure even with how many hundreds there are, it still couldn't get to $10k - but what a value in education, relationship and still only at 2x melt! Buy then raw and you are at melt. You guys need to use these commemoratives in the way they were intended.
Interesting thought as I like exonumia and errors similar to what I’ve seen you post. Do you collect classic commems? I have some but I don’t really collect them at the moment.
Don’t doubt Texas halves been in the green.
I am looking for some nice Texas halves but it has been tough sledding getting them without paying thru nose / bidding high. Would love put together complete set of Texas.
Love'm regardless the prices. Of course look for bargains. But a hobby for me.
I wonder how much the late Larry Whitlow had to do with controlling the Classic Commemoratives market in the early 2000's. I recall being at a coin show and a major dealer was quoting Larry Whitlow's bid price as the basis for the dealer's fingerprinted MS67 a "great deal."
$400 Antietams have disappeared from the earth.
No way it doesn't CAC. I'll go 80% chance for Gold and 20% chance for Green. Good luck!!
JJ
I like to blame Walmart. Isn't that why we all go shopping ? To save a buck ?
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5