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Key Date 1931 Palestine 100 Mils coin sold tonite at Heritage for $21,600

https://coins.ha.com/itm/palestine/palestine-british-mandate-100-mils-1931-ms62-pcgs-/a/3071-31019.s

Didn't surpass the $28,200 for same grade in 2014. Better dates for Palestine Mandate show continued strength and demand.

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Comments

  • pruebaspruebas Posts: 4,301 ✭✭✭✭✭

    If it didn’t surpass the previous price, how does that show continued strength?

  • atomatom Posts: 430 ✭✭✭✭

    Judging from images, this example isn’t quite as attractive even if it merited the technical grade.
    Also, there are a limited number of collectors for these issues. The market in 2014 was much stronger then, so I figure the bids placed today are quite strong.

  • WCCWCC Posts: 2,349 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Most world coinage has a low or very low number of collectors but unless there is regular sales activity, it is hard to judge whether an individual sale is "strong" or weak". The last sale from 2014 doesn't seem to indicate much of anything for the current market, either way.

  • 291fifth291fifth Posts: 23,898 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Thin markets can produce wide swings in price. There is always the chance that the second highly motivated bidder won't be there.

    All glory is fleeting.
  • atomatom Posts: 430 ✭✭✭✭

    The last 4 years have had 3 examples of a MS62, with resulting prices in the range of ~20k - ~28k
    There is no wide swings in price. The market overall in 2014 was much stronger, yet this rare date has still elicited strong bids.

  • tbishoprictbishopric Posts: 91 ✭✭✭

    There was a AU55 piece sold in April 2018 for only $900, which is a bargain compared to these examples. I just started collecting a (circulated) set of this series. I better start looking for this key date ASAP.

  • atomatom Posts: 430 ✭✭✭✭

    As with U.S. coins, there is definitely a hefty premium for the highest grade available. I maintain that an AU for a fraction of the price may be a better purchase. One has to consider the surface marks and eye appeal.

  • 7Jaguars7Jaguars Posts: 7,228 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Well, that seems a fairly wide fluctuance with a diminishing value - even though only three examples....

    Love that Milled British (1830-1960)
    Well, just Love coins, period.
  • atomatom Posts: 430 ✭✭✭✭

    @7Jaguars said:
    Well, that seems a fairly wide fluctuance with a diminishing value - even though only three examples....

    You don’t really mean “fluctuance”

    There are just 4 graded MS62 with 3 appearing at auction per above.

  • 7Jaguars7Jaguars Posts: 7,228 ✭✭✭✭✭

    No, I was being nice. Significant sluggishness with a downward trend would be more exact. Frankly, I am quite accustomed to low supply- low demand coins of similar value.

    Love that Milled British (1830-1960)
    Well, just Love coins, period.
  • WCCWCC Posts: 2,349 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @7Jaguars said:
    No, I was being nice. Significant sluggishness with a downward trend would be more exact. Frankly, I am quite accustomed to low supply- low demand coins of similar value.

    I have noticed in the past that many coins from this series (all denominations) sell for "strong" money. The coin cited in the OP is apparently conditionally scarce which almost certainly means that a handful of buyers are responsible for the price. The price spread between this MS-62 and the AU-55 cited above is exorbitant, even worse than the inflated premiums prevalent in South African coinage where a preference for TPG predominates and most collectors in that country seem to be more interested in the money aspects of collecting.

    This coin apparently is a key date but it isn't even scarce in decent grades, much less rare. On eBay right now, at least one dozen examples are available including multiple in better AU TPG grades. One of the listings states a mintage of 250,000.

    If I collected this series, I'd buy it in an NGC or PCGS AU near $900. I'd run from the MS-62 at any price remotely close to the listed sales.

  • marcmoishmarcmoish Posts: 6,207 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 19, 2019 5:55PM

    These two latest examples sold seem to be graded well, and technically they are 62's. However the 62 sold in 2014 was superior in it's eye appeal and blemish-free.

    Notwithstanding, this date now has DOUBLE the pop, at 4 in 62, 2 in 63.

    Hence the lower but still very strong prices realized imho.

  • bidaskbidask Posts: 13,834 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I have a 1927 50 mild PCGS 66

    Wonder what that would bring ?

    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




  • atomatom Posts: 430 ✭✭✭✭

    @bidask said:
    I have a 1927 50 mild PCGS 66

    Wonder what that would bring ?

    1927 is first year, but isn’t a rare date.
    My guess would be ~500 if it’s truly gem. I saw an example at the ANA show in August, but IMHO the ms66 grade assigned wasn’t justifiable. I’ve got a MS65 that’s superior in technical terms and eye appeal.

  • bidaskbidask Posts: 13,834 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @atom said:

    @bidask said:
    I have a 1927 50 mild PCGS 66

    Wonder what that would bring ?

    1927 is first year, but isn’t a rare date.
    My guess would be ~500 if it’s truly gem. I saw an example at the ANA show in August, but IMHO the ms66 grade assigned wasn’t justifiable. I’ve got a MS65 that’s superior in technical terms and eye appeal.

    What were they asking for the one you saw at the ANA in 66 ?

    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




  • atomatom Posts: 430 ✭✭✭✭

    @bidask said:

    @atom said:

    @bidask said:
    I have a 1927 50 mild PCGS 66

    Wonder what that would bring ?

    1927 is first year, but isn’t a rare date.
    My guess would be ~500 if it’s truly gem. I saw an example at the ANA show in August, but IMHO the ms66 grade assigned wasn’t justifiable. I’ve got a MS65 that’s superior in technical terms and eye appeal.

    What were they asking for the one you saw at the ANA in 66 ?

    If memory serves me correctly I think it was stickered 750.
    With just one recorded in pop report, that would make you the current owner! What did you pay for it?

  • marcmoishmarcmoish Posts: 6,207 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @bidask said:
    I have a 1927 50 mild PCGS 66

    Wonder what that would bring ?

    That is a very rare grade indeed, especially in our host holder.
    I have seen very few true hi-end pcs, and do not hold NGC to same standards.
    For the record there is only YOUR sole example. In 65 only 2 pcs.
    True, NGC has 15+ pcs but irrelevant as comparison in this case.

    In answer to your question on value, likely north of 2K easily.

  • atomatom Posts: 430 ✭✭✭✭

    @marcmoish said:

    @bidask said:
    I have a 1927 50 mild PCGS 66

    Wonder what that would bring ?

    That is a very rare grade indeed, especially in our host holder.
    I have seen very few true hi-end pcs, and do not hold NGC to same standards.
    For the record there is only YOUR sole example. In 65 only 2 pcs.
    True, NGC has 15+ pcs but irrelevant as comparison in this case.

    In answer to your question on value, likely north of 2K easily.

    1) How can you possibly say 15+ pieces graded MS65 by NGC are irrelevant, unless you've actually viewed them?!
    Fact is both TPG are quite accurate, and both have undergraded and overgraded examples.

    2) Your confidence to place a value of "easily north of 2K" isn't a given. Yes, if two or more bidders at auction are vying for top pops, it's certainly possible. But a dealer would be hard-pressed to sell at a table at any show at that price. There have been other examples of super high prices brought at auction for top pops of coins that really aren't that rare.

  • atomatom Posts: 430 ✭✭✭✭

    @bidask said:

    @atom said:

    @bidask said:
    I have a 1927 50 mild PCGS 66

    Wonder what that would bring ?

    1927 is first year, but isn’t a rare date.
    My guess would be ~500 if it’s truly gem. I saw an example at the ANA show in August, but IMHO the ms66 grade assigned wasn’t justifiable. I’ve got a MS65 that’s superior in technical terms and eye appeal.

    What were they asking for the one you saw at the ANA in 66 ?

    I answered your question; would you kindly answer mine?
    With just one recorded in pop report, that would make you the current owner! What did you pay for it?

  • bidaskbidask Posts: 13,834 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @atom said:

    @bidask said:

    @atom said:

    @bidask said:
    I have a 1927 50 mild PCGS 66

    Wonder what that would bring ?

    1927 is first year, but isn’t a rare date.
    My guess would be ~500 if it’s truly gem. I saw an example at the ANA show in August, but IMHO the ms66 grade assigned wasn’t justifiable. I’ve got a MS65 that’s superior in technical terms and eye appeal.

    What were they asking for the one you saw at the ANA in 66 ?

    I answered your question; would you kindly answer mine?
    With just one recorded in pop report, that would make you the current owner! What did you pay for it?

    I am the owner of a 1927 50 mils in PCGS 66. It has glossy lustrous surfaces .... don't remember exactly what I paid for it but maybe around $500...

    I liked the fact it was a top pop at PCGS!

    If you think you have a superior 65 speciman maybe you should try to upgrade.

    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




  • marcmoishmarcmoish Posts: 6,207 ✭✭✭✭✭

    That 2nd MS63 example I mentioned earlier this year seems to have been consigned to Heritage.
    Looks absolutely solid for the grade - I've never seen this example, and looks even superior to the other 63 which I owned decades ago.

  • Skrill90Skrill90 Posts: 264 ✭✭✭

    @tbishopric said:
    There was a AU55 piece sold in April 2018 for only $900, which is a bargain compared to these examples. I just started collecting a (circulated) set of this series. I better start looking for this key date ASAP.

    This one is going for pretty cheap and has a day left. Its a decent example.
    https://www.ebay.com/itm/Palestine-100-Mils-1931-Good-Cleaned-Scarce-Key-Date-27-Ounce-Silver/202799194655?hash=item2f37c6221f:g:OUMAAOSwePpdo1T0

  • ZoharZohar Posts: 6,629 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Skrill90 said:

    @tbishopric said:
    There was a AU55 piece sold in April 2018 for only $900, which is a bargain compared to these examples. I just started collecting a (circulated) set of this series. I better start looking for this key date ASAP.

    This one is going for pretty cheap and has a day left. Its a decent example.
    https://www.ebay.com/itm/Palestine-100-Mils-1931-Good-Cleaned-Scarce-Key-Date-27-Ounce-Silver/202799194655?hash=item2f37c6221f:g:OUMAAOSwePpdo1T0

    Harshly cleaned - not sure the coin commands any premium in circulated condition.

  • marcmoishmarcmoish Posts: 6,207 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Zohar said:

    @Skrill90 said:

    @tbishopric said:
    There was a AU55 piece sold in April 2018 for only $900, which is a bargain compared to these examples. I just started collecting a (circulated) set of this series. I better start looking for this key date ASAP.

    This one is going for pretty cheap and has a day left. Its a decent example.
    https://www.ebay.com/itm/Palestine-100-Mils-1931-Good-Cleaned-Scarce-Key-Date-27-Ounce-Silver/202799194655?hash=item2f37c6221f:g:OUMAAOSwePpdo1T0

    Harshly cleaned - not sure the coin commands any premium in circulated condition.

    Correct!

    You state its a decent example but it is far from decent. Price as expected ;)

  • ZoharZohar Posts: 6,629 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @marcmoish said:

    @Zohar said:

    @Skrill90 said:

    @tbishopric said:
    There was a AU55 piece sold in April 2018 for only $900, which is a bargain compared to these examples. I just started collecting a (circulated) set of this series. I better start looking for this key date ASAP.

    This one is going for pretty cheap and has a day left. Its a decent example.
    https://www.ebay.com/itm/Palestine-100-Mils-1931-Good-Cleaned-Scarce-Key-Date-27-Ounce-Silver/202799194655?hash=item2f37c6221f:g:OUMAAOSwePpdo1T0

    Harshly cleaned - not sure the coin commands any premium in circulated condition.

    Correct!

    You state its a decent example but it is far from decent. Price as expected ;)

    OMG it's @marcmoish - how are you!

  • marcmoishmarcmoish Posts: 6,207 ✭✭✭✭✭

    ha, thanks I'm good just not active enough here - my bad! :'(

  • mkman123mkman123 Posts: 6,849 ✭✭✭✭

    Au and below graded examples of this seems to be a better deal !

    Successful Buying and Selling transactions with:

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  • ZoharZohar Posts: 6,629 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @mkman123 said:
    Au and below graded examples of this seems to be a better deal !

    They made a couple of hundred thousand so not a challenge to find in circulated condition.

  • atomatom Posts: 430 ✭✭✭✭
  • WCCWCC Posts: 2,349 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Zohar said:

    @mkman123 said:
    Au and below graded examples of this seems to be a better deal !

    They made a couple of hundred thousand so not a challenge to find in circulated condition.

    I think it is probably multiple factors. Who are the primarily collectors? I don't know but as a former British territory, I'd expect the series as a whole to have a higher survival rate than most other geographies where little local collecting occurs.

    The other thing I'll add is that most of the better coins in this series are almost certainly not in a TPG holder. This is the norm for most "world" coins. Collectors outside the United States generally do not prefer or even like TPG.

  • atomatom Posts: 430 ✭✭✭✭

    The other thing I'll add is that most of the better coins in this series are almost certainly not in a TPG holder. This is the norm for most "world" coins. Collectors outside the United States generally do not prefer or even like TPG.

    My experience of four decades says otherwise. The 'better coins' have already made their way into slabs.

  • WCCWCC Posts: 2,349 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @atom said:

    The other thing I'll add is that most of the better coins in this series are almost certainly not in a TPG holder. This is the norm for most "world" coins. Collectors outside the United States generally do not prefer or even like TPG.

    My experience of four decades says otherwise. The 'better coins' have already made their way into slabs.

    That's what a lot of people think. I see this sentiment, all the time. Collectors assuming that what they see represents most if not all of what's out there. Sometimes it may be true, most of the time it isn't.

    I'll grant you that the high prices of the 1931 100 mil MS coins (at least 62 or better anyway) provides incentive for those who know what they have to submit. It's what I call "positive selection bias" which exists with any number of coins. The rest of the coins aren't really that valuable.

    There are still a noticeable number of (far more) valuable coins (mostly ancient and European) that aren't in slabs simply because these collectors don't like it. The coin will make its way into a holder eventually at sale but not before then. It could be years or even decades.

    What about those who don't know what they have? It's not like these coins are really that old or many collectors (never mind non-collectors) know that these coins are worth noticeable money. Most people don't know anything about a series like this one and would have little if any reason to believe it is valuable.

    Were these coins or this particular date heavily melted? If not, there is a high probability that visitors from elsewhere took some back home with them, whether they were collectors or not. There was a lot less travel at the time but the area is not geographically isolated from Europe even if almost no collecting occurred locally.

    To give you a specific example, a 2007 Heritage listing stated that Krause estimated the 1941-H Sarawak cent had 50 survivors. The 2015 listings don't. The reason? The TPG population data already approach this number. I'd guess the actual number is probably several hundred. This estimate probably came from some specialist who guessed based upon their personal knowledge.

    There are much older coins with lower mintages that have (much) higher survivors in "high quality" than the 10 for the 1931 100 mils in the TPG data. Sometimes the newer coins may be scarcer when it appears to be but most of the time it likely isn't. Many in the South African Union series (which I know very well) are a lot scarcer than most collectors believe but mostly still a lot more common than collectors in that country thought. They disagreed with me when I expressed this opinion, all the time.

    For my primary current interest (Bolivia, Guatemala and Peru pillar minors) I don't know exactly how scarce the coins are but I can use a point of reference (US Liberty Seated in comparable denominations) to validate my opinion. The reason I can do so is because I can compare mintages, the survival estimates for this series are better known than most coins, and logic makes it apparent that this series usually has a higher survival rate regardless of quality.

  • marcmoishmarcmoish Posts: 6,207 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @WCC said:

    @Zohar said:

    @mkman123 said:
    Au and below graded examples of this seems to be a better deal !

    They made a couple of hundred thousand so not a challenge to find in circulated condition.

    I think it is probably multiple factors. Who are the primarily collectors? I don't know but as a former British territory, I'd expect the series as a whole to have a higher survival rate than most other geographies where little local collecting occurs.

    The other thing I'll add is that most of the better coins in this series are almost certainly not in a TPG holder. This is the norm for most "world" coins. Collectors outside the United States generally do not prefer or even like TPG.

    Yes correct, high survival but mostly in circulated grades. Many of the dates are scarce in MS grades. Unsure how many still out there but one never knows, that's the truth on any series.
    I suspect there are others that will still be graded in this series.
    Absolutely will.

    Zohar remember when we were doing this series years ago and the 1945 2 Mil was so scarce in MS and then along comes a nice mini hoard of really solid MS examples.
    And poof there went the 2 Mil 45's.

    Primarily this series would interest a variety of collectors including British/Arabic/Israel/Palestine , Coins with HOLES, and coins with THREE languages Arabic, Hebrew and English.

  • marcmoishmarcmoish Posts: 6,207 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I mentioned this 2 weeks ago on the 18th. Look at the TrueView, love it, and that came out of left field ;)

  • atomatom Posts: 430 ✭✭✭✭

    @marcmoish said:

    I mentioned this 2 weeks ago on the 18th. Look at the TrueView, love it, and that came out of left field ;)

    Sorry I missed your post!
    So, what's your educated guess on the price it will fetch?

  • WCCWCC Posts: 2,349 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 30, 2019 3:37PM

    @marcmoish said:

    @WCC said:

    @Zohar said:

    @mkman123 said:
    Au and below graded examples of this seems to be a better deal !

    They made a couple of hundred thousand so not a challenge to find in circulated condition.

    I think it is probably multiple factors. Who are the primarily collectors? I don't know but as a former British territory, I'd expect the series as a whole to have a higher survival rate than most other geographies where little local collecting occurs.

    The other thing I'll add is that most of the better coins in this series are almost certainly not in a TPG holder. This is the norm for most "world" coins. Collectors outside the United States generally do not prefer or even like TPG.

    Yes correct, high survival but mostly in circulated grades. Many of the dates are scarce in MS grades. Unsure how many still out there but one never knows, that's the truth on any series.
    I suspect there are others that will still be graded in this series.
    Absolutely will.

    Primarily this series would interest a variety of collectors including British/Arabic/Israel/Palestine , Coins with HOLES, and coins with THREE languages Arabic, Hebrew and English.

    I'm not saying the coins are common in "high quality". Only that the actual supply is almost certainly noticeably larger than what shows up in the TPG data now.

    First, that absent specific evidence, personal experience usually has limited applicability.

    Second, most collectors have limited (if any) awareness of the general scarcity of coinage because they don't have any interest and so don't pay any attention to it. I have looked at a lot of coins across time and geography.

    I don't know exactly how scarce most are either but I do know that coins which are much older show up in "high quality", all the time. Many are presumably from hoards such as First Jewish Revolt, Crusader deniers, medieval French deniers, medieval English pennies, Mexico Carlos & Joanna "late series" 4R, English gold nobles...I think you get the point.

    Others such as US colonial and early federal are available in "noticeable supply" in "high quality" as well. Comparable or a lot more than the 10 listed in the TPG population data for the 1931 100 mils in MS right now. Unless the mintages are really low (such as maybe for some Netherlands provincial) primarily due to population and economics, I'd guess that most European coins dated from about 1775 onward (at minimum) are relatively common by my standards even in high quality. Some Byzantine silver is a lot more common in "high quality " than I would have imagined possible, even for a specific date range (since the coins don't have dates).

    For my primary current interest, my explanation for the apparent scarcity is: Lack of local collecting which isn't uncommon. Second, limited usage in international trade. Third and most importantly, geographic isolation. It certainly isn't due to the mintages because it isn't usually low by contemporary standards. Most other coinage made it's way elsewhere (one way or another) where it found its way to someone who saved it properly, whether intentionally or by accident.

  • marcmoishmarcmoish Posts: 6,207 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I get it @WCC, you wrote this all out well and with merit - I was not countering you, just adding some data - nothing more ;)

    Sorry I missed your post!
    So, what's your educated guess on the price it will fetch?

    Now that is a good question - I honestly I have no idea, at this stage, but my guess is 30K give or take.
    No surprise if less or higher.

  • atomatom Posts: 430 ✭✭✭✭

    @marcmoish said:

    Now that is a good question - I honestly I have no idea, at this stage, but my guess is 30K give or take.
    No surprise if less or higher.

    A reasonable guess given the sales history for Mint State examples.

    And now for a follow up question:
    Given the relative scarcity of AU examples reported by TPGs, what value would you place on those?

  • marcmoishmarcmoish Posts: 6,207 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I have not followed it closely in a few years now, I suspect as years back they are still nothing close in scarcity/price to true MS examples.

  • marcmoishmarcmoish Posts: 6,207 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @atom
    Your last comment got me thinking so I took a look at some old notes and came up with some data here that corroborates what @WCC was getting at.

    1931 100 Mil - Some history I noted then, interest brewed big time for mandate mint state coins (and grading) them 10 years ago , I had been searching for a nice solid example for many years already.
    My 62 that sold in 2014 was originally in a 58 holder (NGC, I paid $800!), and was graded very conservatively.
    I crossed it, and subsequently (finally) it graded 62 years later, and sold as such.
    So in 2014 there were ONLY 1 example in 62, and one in 63.

    The POP records I have show in October 2011
    NGC 58/3, 61/1
    PCGS 50/2, 55/1

    Today POP reads:
    NGC 53/1, 55/9, 58/11, 61/3, and one 62 example
    PCGS 43/4, 55/6, 58/6, 62/4, 63/2

    px Example: Jerusalem Coll. AU55 (PCGS) sold for $1610 in 2012.

    So since then a number of examples have come into play, looking at the POP now is very different than it was 10 yrs ago. Hence prices have receded somewhat, especially in the 55-62 range, a 63 is definitely a rare grade.

  • atomatom Posts: 430 ✭✭✭✭

    @marcmoish said:
    @atom
    Your last comment got me thinking so I took a look at some old notes and came up with some data here that corroborates what @WCC was getting at.

    1931 100 Mil - Some history I noted then, interest brewed big time for mandate mint state coins (and grading) them 10 years ago , I had been searching for a nice solid example for many years already.
    My 62 that sold in 2014 was originally in a 58 holder (NGC, I paid $800!), and was graded very conservatively.
    I crossed it, and subsequently (finally) it graded 62 years later, and sold as such.
    So in 2014 there were ONLY 1 example in 62, and one in 63.

    The POP records I have show in October 2011
    NGC 58/3, 61/1
    PCGS 50/2, 55/1

    Today POP reads:
    NGC 53/1, 55/9, 58/11, 61/3, and one 62 example
    PCGS 43/4, 55/6, 58/6, 62/4, 63/2

    px Example: Jerusalem Coll. AU55 (PCGS) sold for $1610 in 2012.

    So since then a number of examples have come into play, looking at the POP now is very different than it was 10 yrs ago. Hence prices have receded somewhat, especially in the 55-62 range, a 63 is definitely a rare grade.

    @marcmoish Thanks for the analysis. My read is:
    1) population reports may be overstated as coins were resubmitted or crossed over, as you did.
    2) over the last 10 years there have been more coins making their way into slabs, but my guess is there aren't many still outstanding
    3) price differential between AU and MS is very far apart. For the number of AUs in existence, values will likely rise, as the truly rare MS examples will be unattainable.

  • WCCWCC Posts: 2,349 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The mintage for the 1805 US half dollar is about 211,000, comparable to this coin. PCGS Coin Facts lists 11 MS examples for both Red Book varieties. Nine are pictured with an auction history.

    How likely is it that the 1931 100 mils is about equally scarce to this coin?

    Coin Facts lists 21 (10 illustrated with auction history) MS examples for the 1796-1797 half dollar. The mintage is 3,917. Sure, the low mintage incentivized collectors to save it but there were relatively few at the time, travel was a lot more limited, and it's 130+ years older.

    Sometimes, a coin might be mostly as scarce as it actually appears, which I believe applies with the 1925 South Africa florin. Mintage is 50,000 and two MS are currently listed in the NGC census; where it has been for almost a decade. Probably a few more buried in "old time" collections in South Africa and maybe the UK but the coin is scarce in any decent grade.

    For the 1931 100 mils, the best case I can think of in favor of a higher price for an AU is that the collector base has a high preference for this series and it's affordable to a noticeable proportion of the collector population.

    For the MS coins, only that the buyers believe they can recover most of their outlay or sell it for more which has nothing to do with collecting. The price variance is totally disproportionate to any quality difference. As with other coins, there may be (or are) a few wealthy owners who don't care about the financial outcome but that doesn't mean there will be others later. This is a negative for any coin with a similar price structure.

    I'd rate this coin in MS as one of the most relatively overpriced in the world, even more so among non-US coinage. It can increase anyway but if so, it's likely to be with a higher population per the explanations I have given.

  • marcmoishmarcmoish Posts: 6,207 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @atom I sent my 58 label back to NGC, I recall waiting for it to be adjusted, and was glad when it was. I suppose not everyone has done that.
    Unsure about the AU prices rising, I tend to think not, but that's jmho.

    @Zohar said:
    Crash and burn

    True that!

    not shocked at all.

  • atomatom Posts: 430 ✭✭✭✭

    When will the 'catalog' prices reflect the real market prices??
    This coin has consistently brought 5 figures.

  • marcmoishmarcmoish Posts: 6,207 ✭✭✭✭✭

    This latest example sold last week for 16.8K (all in) makes one need to pause.
    That is what, almost 50% off the 62 high sold in '14?
    That's a steep drop downwards.

    There were 11 bidders in 2014 when the 2014 example closed.
    This one, a 63 no less saw only 4 bidders.
    2 bidders up to online closure at 10K
    Then 2 more that likely battled it to the finish.
    50% less interest in this series/date also?

    So how much is that 62 that sold for 21K one year ago in your OP now worth?

    This final PR admittedly did surprise me.

  • atomatom Posts: 430 ✭✭✭✭

    @marcmoish said:

    This latest example sold last week for 16.8K (all in) makes one need to pause.
    That is what, almost 50% off the 62 high sold in '14?
    That's a steep drop downwards.

    There were 11 bidders in 2014 when the 2014 example closed.
    This one, a 63 no less saw only 4 bidders.
    2 bidders up to online closure at 10K
    Then 2 more that likely battled it to the finish.
    50% less interest in this series/date also?

    So how much is that 62 that sold for 21K one year ago in your OP now worth?

    This final PR admittedly did surprise me.

    My guess is, gradeflation is a factor. A MS62 in 2014 is probably equal or perhaps even slightly more valuable than this MS63, taking into account eye appeal, etc.

    There are a number of submissions and resubmission that are now on the population report since 2014. A year which brought stronger prices due to the perceived rarity which has since normalized.

    2014 was a year of better auction results across all world coins.

    All said, I also thought it would have brought 20K when hammered.

  • marcmoishmarcmoish Posts: 6,207 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Looks like an MS64 example is coming up in a Goldberg sale.

  • ElmhurstElmhurst Posts: 768 ✭✭✭

    I'll always take a nice 58 over a 62.

  • atomatom Posts: 430 ✭✭✭✭

    1931 100 Mils in MS64 hammered today in Goldberg's auction at $25,000


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