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PCGS Price "Guide"
Bankerbob56
Posts: 1,396 ✭✭✭
I recently upgraded a Washington quarter in my Registry Set. The referenced guide indicates the coin I upgraded was valued at $4,000. I just acquired an example of that coin for less than $1,300. Specifics are not germane to the conversation. The coin I acquired is a beauty and I agree with the grade. What is the issue in the disparate valuations? Is the guide that outdated? I certainly did not beat down the seller.... it was originally offered at $1,399. Still a far cry from the list value....
What guide do you use to obtain an estimate of value when either buying or selling?
What we've got here is failure to communicate.....
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Successful BST xactions w/PCcoins, Drunner, Manofcoins, Rampage, docg, Poppee, RobKool, and MichealDixon.
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I certainly look at the guide but sure don't rely on it for my purchases. Most times it's quite high and once in a while I find that I can't buy anything at the prices listed....I do check Heritage and Ebay close sales for decision making.
bob
It's supposed to be based on real transactions, no? If a coin sells on eBay via bid only is that considered to be retail for that particular coin? What about other coins just like it? How is anyone supposed to know what retail really is in this hobby/business?
MY COINS FOR SALE AT https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/other/bajjerfans-coins-sale/3876
I use the closed auctions page here on PCGS as a starting point. From there I look at market direction, quality of the coin and if I really want the coin to arrive at a price I'm ok paying. If the seller will sell at my price great, if not there are other fish in the sea.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
I think the best way to know is by using many different sources. It comes down to education: knowing your subject. There are lots of moving parts... Ebay would seem like a solid source, but all coins aren't the same, all auctions don't get the same attention, and the final price is not always a reflection of the price paid. Ebay often manipulates the "sale price." If you search ebay for completed auctions, Buy-it-Now auctions show the offer price, not the agreed upon price. Also, if the buyer is unhappy with the purchase, a lower price is sometimes negotiated after the sale. That is not reflected either. Ebay has a financial interest in keeping the sales price higher.
Prices guides are just that...guides. I would base my buy/sell offer on prior auction results and eye appeal.
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If I could add in a question to this post...Does the sell price at the non ebay auction house show the "juice"?
CC
I often use the PCGS price list "as a basic guide". When selling I expect to see 20 to 30% discount depending on the coin. When buying I see the price guide as an absolute top value for the best coins in the grade.
Yes, definitely includes the juice.
Successful BST xactions w/PCcoins, Drunner, Manofcoins, Rampage, docg, Poppee, RobKool, and MichealDixon.
Best price guide is your local mom and pop B&M.
"You want how much for this!?"
Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds.-Albert Einstein
I like the Price Guides based on auction results but the key word is GUIDE! Perhaps the seller did not know about the guide and offered the coin too cheaply.
EBay is generally what I use. I also keep a copy of the Redbooks on hand to help me.
I've viewed PCGS price guides as what I'd expect to pay full retail at a B and M shop. This depends on the coin. There have been a few copper pieces I've bought from EACers with superior eye appeal that went for guide prices... most have been 20 - 25% off...
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PCGS price guide is at least still in the ball park. If I could get the NGC guide prices I would sell everything I have without even thinking about it.
Depends on the coin. I think in general PCGS adds a premium to the auction price realized data to provide guidance in line with an over the counter retail transaction. But I've also paid well over price guide for coins that are very scarce, so in my opinion the PCGS price is low in that case.
Buying a coin at 1/3 of PCGS sounds like an anomaly though. Maybe the seller was not very educated, or maybe it's some minor variety with a very thin market. Or there could be something too good to be true going on.
LIBERTY SEATED DIMES WITH MAJOR VARIETIES CIRCULATION STRIKES (1837-1891) digital album
My formula is...
Check the all time sets page for total sets.
Add the population numbers from right to left until it equals that number.
Those columns can be unpredictable.
For my set, the number is about 100
Everything below the top 100 is pretty consistent on the price guide.
My Saint Set
I've begun to rely almost exclusively on E-Bay sales prices. While it's true that E-Bay can use their ability to boost the price in various ways it's still more accurate than the price guide. Then again, a super high grade coin with a CAC sticker that's registry quality might sell a bit higher than your average E-Bay coin in the same grade.
Except the kicker is that most have no idea which particular sale/s that the PCGS price guide is based upon.
AND dealer to customer sales probably aren't included in the PG.
If a dealer has 2 1884-O Morgans in PCGS ms66 and sells one to a customer for $225 and the other one to another customer for $310 what is the retail price?
MY COINS FOR SALE AT https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/other/bajjerfans-coins-sale/3876
It is important to know the general value of a coin one is considering for purchase. This is very important for people who sell coins. For the collector, it is important also, but only to the extent that they do not pay a ridiculous premium....If one does not sell coins, one is using disposable income for the pleasure of collecting and owning desirable items. Cheers, RickO
Not all coins of the same grade are equal. Eye appeal, luster, strike, etc. can separate two technically graded MS66's by hundreds or even thousands of dollars. I think of the guide price as a guide for the average, generic graded coin.
- Bob -
"Central Valley" Roosevelts
MPL's - Lincolns of Color
Real transactions have nothing to do with it as far as I can tell. I own classic pop 1-3 coins that the guide has went significantly down on, despite not another coin being sold/reported/discovered.
Maybe we should ask David or Don? -)
My 1866 Philly Mint Set
Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the PCGS guide based on PCGS SLABBED coin prices?
Pete
David has already said here in the past that it was based on actual transactions for PCGS graded coins. I suppose that could change, but I expect it may not be a priority with the new leadership. Could be the bulk of them were derived from CCE sales.
MY COINS FOR SALE AT https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/other/bajjerfans-coins-sale/3876
Perhaps it is some market algorithm for lets say overall bust, or barber, or seated coin sales?
If a pop 1 or 2, none better, coin does not sell again, why would prices decline? Or go up? Not actual sales it seems.
My 1866 Philly Mint Set
The OP's coin is a graded example in his Registry Set. Of course we are talking slabbed coins not raw. Real world price checking is recent slabbed sales on HA and ebay.
bob
When HRH used to give his daily market report or the report that we used to get daily via email where do you suppose that those prices came from?
MY COINS FOR SALE AT https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/other/bajjerfans-coins-sale/3876
There is so much wisdom in ICG's comments.
I find the PCGS price guide accurate and retail many coins at that or higher. This a very fair price for buyers to pay.
Auction prices represent liquidation and not something necessarily I would consider MV. I also refer to the CDN CPG in pricing material.
You don’t give the date and grade of your coin nor indicate if u acquired raw or what - how is one supposed analyze your comment if u don’t give critical data? What is CDN bid on this coin? You say you paid $1300 for it - what is CDN bid for it? I take it’s in a PCGS Holder? I get good buys on many coins but refer to TPG PG, CW, or CDN bid plus my markup pct in pricing to sell.
That's pretty much the way I see it too. My local B&M sells some slabs but there main business is selling raw collector coins. They use the gray sheet for their buy prices.
Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds.-Albert Einstein
nailed it
To answer to "the pcgs guide" question only. I don' t think it is accurate at this time as a general reference for the coin market as we are experiencing it. Gold seems to get correction, but most coins are left to be uber scubber doober RETAIL as I once told a dealer who referred the guide, as his price point. I don't think it's a guide for any measure of accuracy in the market now. You cannot buy Barber Halves at most prices listed "too low" other coins "too high" I've looked at it as a place to see where the dealer might have gotten his price from. Now, don't tell me a "nice coin" AS FAR AS COLLECTOR COINS are concerned will bring a good price as I have tested this over and over. Most offers I receive on very nice "collector coins" better dates included are based on HA minus 20% in this market and usually the lowest recent sale price.
So, back in the box they go until another market day comes along.
The above is my experience your experience may differ. The market is wacky in nature and can change at any time without warning.
Maybe that's why I have a higher opinion on PCGS prices than others.
To me they are "high-ask" or "premium quality" for saints and not too far off.
My Saint Set
My two-bits is that if it's not worth $200 when labeled then it's not worth getting in on the label and paying the fees to do so. Grading is $25 and Variety is $18 and insurance and mailing...just blows the expense to the moon. So, it's a business decision to not even bother with coins worth less than $10 by both PCGS and me too.
bob
PS: just so you know I'm not a dealer and don't collect Lincolns, per se.