Rationalizing price declines.
topstuf
Posts: 14,803 ✭✭✭✭✭
Okay, we all know that the market is to be polite, "soft" in many areas.
We've all been reminded that this is a "hobby" and the rewards can be varied.
Soooo.... try looking at it like a restaurant meal. You enjoy; you pay. You can't resell what you have left the next morning. 
You choose the restaurant for the pleasure of the experience and, with coins the experience lasts a while longer.
Stop worrying about whether millennials will ever develop an interest in coins. They probably won't.
Casting your coin collection into the part of your brain that appreciates enjoyable experiences will make a whole new way of looking at the phenomenon of pricing.
Now, so I won't make you throw up, I'll leave you to ponder those words.
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Back in the day when I started collecting as a kid I can remember a large amount of kids were coin collectors. For some reason I feel this is not so today and many have quit or given up on the hobby hence a decline in the number of collectors buying. This is just my thought on the decline in prices. Hope I made some sense.
A couple of years ago when the market dropped, some big error coins got halved in price.
I thought to myself, well that is a really great price on those coins.
I started buying big errors relentlessly. Prices have come up quite a bit since then.
Price drops are buying opportunities if you know and watch the market closely.
I'm reading this thread and at the same time I am about to make a deal on the most expensive coin I've ever bought. What the heck, I'm only going this way once!
Sure you did/do. Be happy that you kids talked about your coin collections. You were fortunate to live in the days of actually talking to other kids face-to-face.
With the trend now for "kids" (?) to only communicate by technology, I think they'll have a lot more problems than price declines.
On anything. (well, except for their wages when AI gets rolling)
Prices have died more than once in the past. Will they rise again? Most likely, but the whole non-currency society is a bit of a wild card.
Yes, I drove by a high school the other day and a whole group of kids was bent over their smart phones texting each other and not two feet away from each other. That's just crazy!
It is called communication.
Or "low battery,"
My wife and I go out to dinner two or three times a month (I enjoy cooking and she likes what I prepare)..... I am amazed at how couples will sit at the same table and spend all their time either messaging or reading their phones.... Yes, we both have smart phones... and my wife will definitely answer a text from our daughter, but we spend the time enjoying the meal and talking with each other. I see couples walking down the street (we are in a residential area of a small town) and they are either typing on or looking at their phones...Often individuals will walk by, talking while all alone, obviously on the phone with an earbud....It seems no one can do anything without their phone now... what happened to just taking a walk or hike and enjoying the scenery or the fresh air?? It concerns me, because I do not know where this will lead...and the possibilities concern me greatly. Cheers, RickO
What do we want. “low price “ no good Hi price no good. Submit coins....... tight no good no gifts. Loose no good we need someone to oversee the whole gig. Wait might we have that special someone. Good we good to go.
As usual, the folks least likely to know what kids are up to are the most sure that they do
“Kids” are generally the same in every generation. Promise. There’s lots of em, and some few will end up as coin collectors. Whether our coins continue to go up in value or not depends on two things:
1. Are our kids richer than we were at the same age? Do they have more leisure time?
2. Do we own the coins that they want?
The hobby has been around for thousands of years. I find it hard to believe that it’s about to die off anytime soon. The prices for original, eye appealing early type coins that I collect seem to still be strong.
Doesn’t the coin market have ups and downs so what we’re seeing is just some down years until something happens to spike interest again?
The market is bifurcating. Some things are getting more expensive but most things are declining. Part of collecting now is choosing which side of the pool you want to be in. Of course, you can be in both as well.
Check out this thread:
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1008389/gold-rush-territorial-counterstamps#latest
Kids today are super smart, I believe because of technology.
I was out trick-or-treating two weeks ago with my kids enjoying the fresh air. Instead of going home to bid on an auction, I used my smartphone to place a bid (out in the field) for the first time ever and won a very cool sandwich strike error coin.
Had it not been for the iPhone, I would have had to go home to my computer and not get fresh air while walking with my kids.
Business booming for me retail online (Classic Commems) shows good for pickups but retail slow or dead.
There are many buying opportunities at this point. Better, scarce material will always have a demand.
I am planning on joining PCGS Currency submission and submit a lot of my material.
I look at better date coins where there only so many slabbed by Pcgs....SLQ strong.
Kids are also all over the Alexa. Having a voice assistant comes so naturally to some of them that they don’t think about it. Imagine having Heritage Live on the Alexa?
When I was at the NH Coin Expo on Saturday, I noticed a troop of Boy Scouts and at least one additional teenager walking the floor. They were looking at coins, not playing Pokemon Go while walking into walls and dealers' tables, staring with glassy eyes into their electronic devices. So let's chuck the streotypes of young people out the window. There will be new collectors in the future. Some of them will provide demand for U.S. coins remotely from foreign countries, too. The real question is, "what will they want to collect?"
This is simply NOT TRUE.
There are fewer adult and young coin collectors than a generation ago. The idea that things haven't changed is, at best, naïve.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
The hobby is NOT thousands of years old. Coin collecting really started in the Renaissance with ancient coins.
You can find it hard to believe, but membership in the ANA speaks for itself...as does the price drops of common widgets.
I would ask anyone to look at the stamp market. Premium stamp material continues to set records. Everything else is down a factor of 10 or even 20 from only 20 years ago. APS membership has dropped by over 60%. Coins have started what appears to be a similar shift.
I would avoid complacency...unless you really don't care about prices because you don't plan on selling. Then the more the market tanks, the better: you can buy more.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
One major factory to keep in mind are the katrillion new coin collectors that the statehood quarter program brought in. These ex YN's are now busy with life, love and the pursuit of careers. I predict many of the katrillion will come back
I’m still surprised by how high all the Sac errors go for. It seems they are all 4 figure coins. Got to be some modern collectors collecting those modern coins!
I use to collect them and bid them up to buy for my personal collection.
I since have sold almost all of them and each for more than I paid.
There is a very strong collector base for major sac errors.
I highly doubt they were texting each other.
I was there too! From about 930am to noon. 30 years old and I had on an orange philly flyers shirt.
There will always be a coin business, it's just a matter of "at what level?"
I've mentioned this in other posts, but it's most likely the hobby is evolving. The old fashioned way of collecting is dying out, but it's because it's far easier to get stuff online and on different platforms. As for numbers of collectors, we really can't be sure on the exact number.
Far too many people (including a few in this here forum) take the grouchy old codger behind the B&M counter view of collecting, wondering why no young 'uns are coming to the store any more. Maybe the reason for that is they find it easier and friendlier on another platform or venue, they don't want to hear endless "gubmint" conspiracies and they just don't like mustard-stained people telling them to get off their lawn.
10-4,
My Instagram picturesErik
My registry sets
Or you could have placed a proxy bid.
I used to be a member of the ANA but not anymore. I didn’t find much value for the price. The magazine wasn’t interesting enough for me and the group (at the time) was always bickering internally. Plus, I think folks are getting their information and articles online these days. When I go to the supermarket or drug store they all but eliminated their magazine section so why would the Numismatist be any different?
Well, regardless..... I still say if it ain't beaned, it ain't gonna be collected by anyone in another 2 years.
Unless it's widgets. Then it won't matter.
Consider also, as the well to do baby boomer collectors (now in their 60's and 70's) sell off their collections, the new buyers in their 30's and 40's are less well off--even in the upper but not stratospheric income levels than their parents.
So, you're saying all they will buy is coins?
Some types of coin do not get beaned thankfully.
Maybe I should start a beaning business ......
I'm optimistic about the future of the hobby, but I'm still bearish on some coins.
Regardless, the question of whether we should look at our coin purchases as "money spent and gone" is an interesting one. I think that's possible for someone spending a small sliver of his income on coins. Same as with restaurant meals. But once we start spending "real money", the ROI become impossible to ignore.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Well every coin of any numismatic value over melt with continue to have a home. Question is which home and at what price. Are collectors chasing after MS-68 common Washington Quarters with $12,000 bids as they did a dozen years ago. No. Maybe the right price is $1000 or more likely $500.
The super wealthy are buying at the top tier. Little of that trickles down to the $1000 and above super dreck category.
Not MY super dreck, you dog!
DCarr will have to strike smartphones on silver dollars.
The tech industry has grabbed the wealth and total control. Lets hope critical thinking for ones self is not totally gone. We all enjoy the ease of which technology gives us. I like shopping in pj's. We do agree that one on one face time is much healthier and coin folk with shows get to find folks with common interests.
Markets go up and down. Not too worried. Yet.
Best place to buy !
Bronze Associate member
I completely agree.
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As for youths: The Millennials are already grown, have income, and making their own decisions. Gen Z’s are more than likely still in school (including college) and not producing income, yet. Lastly, for now, we have Gen A’s (generally born ~2013).
IMHO, at this point in time, the future of the hobby is in the hands of the Gen Z’s and Gen A’s.
My focus is introducing coins to grandkid.
I hope to be around when grandkid is a young adult and see what develops.
I miss my pogo stick.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
I submit this theory for consumption, there ARE more collectors now than ever before.
The population explosion has a more watered down appearance of having less collectors because there are so many more people in general.
The platform of collecting has changed dramatically to online based sales and trades.
There are more coins available now to the average consumer just on eBay, than one could find at an entire coin show or B&M store anywhere. 24 hour shopping online.
I can guarantee that the eBay seller who replies to offers and messages during evening-night-weekend- off hours gets a lot more business than a 10-4 schedule seller. I buy from the guys that reply at 8pm, or Sunday afternoon. I have purchased thousands of coins over the last 10 years. 5 coin stores, 1 show, and all the rest eBay or internet.
I believe the soft prices come from market competition. It simply is not difficult to find most any coin anymore, with the exception of extreme rarities and super high prices.
https://www.autismforums.com/media/albums/acrylic-colors-by-rocco.291/
I, as a omnivorous collector of all sorts of stupid stuff, have BOTH.... I Go Pogo....and....POGO magazines.
Which, I am sure impresses approximately none of you.
There is an enormous opportunity for some folks to become consultants for those inheriting stuff.
It's gonna be a boatload.
B&M of the future.
My trust specifies who gets how much of stuff and money.
And NOBODY gets any ....money..... unless they can identify the ......stuff.
More likely this .....
I'm taking a wild guess that he's not searching Match.com.
often people try to paint a picture of the entire coin market with one stroke. There are so many facets that it is impossible to say coins are down or up. I could give many examples of collections or individual coins going for record prices in the last year
If a collector is worried about value, I suggest he look for true rarity. Doug Winter has an excellent video interview he recently gave to coinweek and posted on his site (I would link it if i was technologically competent) where he discusses old gold coins that are truly rare and cost between $500 and $1500. These are coins that you wont find 30 available on ebay at any one time. A collector who focuses on this segment of coin collecting will probably not feel the coin market is on a never ending cycle downward
Interesting thought and easily considered, until the purchases are hundreds or thousands of dollars. At that point the investment aspect is very difficult to ignore. Thinking about this more, if one is a collector for 50 years and spends $200 a month (avg dinner for two @ $50 per week, more or less for some) that would = $120,000 over that timeframe. When looking at it that way its difficult to not consider that sum of money without the thought of some return. And while we as collectors may be able to rationalize the expenditure this way, I doubt many of our wives (as most are not coin collectors) would view this amount as disposable. That's a whole lot of fancy fingernails she could have had lol.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
What population explosion? In Africa and India? Western Europe, the U.S. and Japan have been in a population drought for decades.
And it's all good to have a "theory" but there is not one scintilla of evidence to support this theory. Everything from prices to club memberships points to a declining collector base. eBay is now 20 years old, the recent weakness in the coin market isn't a sudden shift to eBay.
You're right that some of the softness comes from competition, but that is NOT NOT NOT because of increased demand and an even greater increase in competition. It is due to decreased demand spread over more coins.
If the collector base was truly exploding as you suggest, you would see stable prices at the very least. You don't.
In the 90s when stamp prices started sliding, true believers said buy. When Zeppelins went from 5k to 2k people screamed bargain. Now, with Zeppelins at 1k or even less, it is hard to rationalize the decline as anything but what it was: a decreasing collector base.
You also have to remember that every lost collector is a double whammy on the market. It is one less buyer and one more collection needing dispersal.
Again, rose-colored glasses can be dangerous. It would have caused you to buy a whole lot of Zeppelins or Columbians for $4k, $3k and $2k that are now worth a fraction of that. Go ahead, load up on 65 Morgans...I dare you. The booming collector base should make you a fortune, if YOU'RE right. If I'm right, you're going to have a pretty collection of lower valued coins.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.