Basketball Rookies - overpriced???

PatsGuy5000 · October 20, 2018 7:14AM

PSA 10 Regular Issue (not inserts or numbered cards) Basketball Rookies of Ben Simmons, Donovan Mitchell, Jayson Tatum, etc. are selling on EBay for more money than Shaquille O’Neal, Tim Duncan, Dwayne Wade, etc. I think the later 3 are very undervalued. All time great players with Championships, multiple All pro, finals mvp’s, and first ballot HOFERS. Granted the younger players have promise, but from a future value standpoint, I’m buying the established greats.

steel75 · October 20, 2018 7:16AM

Prisoners of the moment

GreenSneakers · October 20, 2018 8:08AM

Rookie mania never dies. Look at Ohtani prices, it’s in all sports. Rampant speculation and excitement leads to “What they might do” eclipsing “”What others have done”.

ReggieCleveland · October 20, 2018 8:23AM

Supply numbers are quite different.

Arthur

PatsGuy5000 · October 20, 2018 8:34AM

Supply numbers ? More PSA 10 graded cards or more cards printed years ago?

Huskies11 · October 20, 2018 8:42AM

@PatsGuy5000 said:
Supply numbers ? More PSA 10 graded cards or more cards printed years ago?

Without actually looking at the numbers I'd assume both, but the latter being the most important figure. I wish there was some sort of assembled list of estimated print runs for 80s and 90s cards. If anyone has one please pass it along.

UFFDAH · October 20, 2018 10:48AM

How can prices for Patrick Mahomes be so HIGH as compared to Brady's, Rodgers,Brees. It's just ridiculous.

ReggieCleveland · October 20, 2018 11:28AM

@PatsGuy5000 said:
Supply numbers ? More PSA 10 graded cards or more cards printed years ago?

More cards printed back then. I bought a box of 1992 Ultra Series II for $3 recently. I know that's not the norm but there's still just SO much of that stuff out there, even after all these years. It seems like there's no end to the unopened product available for Shaq rookies.

Which PSA 10 modern base rookies are you talking about? You're saying non-serial numbered. I think the best non-serial numbered are probably, what? Prizm? I'm honestly not sure so I'm asking.

Arthur

PatsGuy5000 · October 20, 2018 12:45PM

Since Panini has rights to all NBA licensing, they have Donruss Optic, Hoops, Prizm, etc. I think the print runs are lower now, all general stores had packs in the past, now just a few do. Good deal on 92 Ultra, even if there are lots out there.

phelda · October 20, 2018 7:28PM

Great topic. Prices from brands specifically Prizm, Optic and Contenders are sky-high. Demand is strong. The price run-up for anything Prizm from the last 6 or so years is insane. Hobby box prices relative to factory cost is gigantic. For example a hobby box of 2017-18 Prizm basketball runs about $475-$495 with a factory cost of $93.

I think print run also plays a big role in the price discrepancy too. Non-traditional sports card buyers are entering the market as investors, speculators, dealers/flippers, arbitragers, are pushing prices up. Generation also plays a part. Donovan Mitchell, Karl-Anthony, Giannis, Fultz, Ingram are the newest cohort. Nobody thinks the players from their generation will ever be surpassed, until they are.

International buyers also have a massive appetite for basketball as it is a truly international sport with players coming in to the NBA from around the world. I wish I grabbed and sat on a bunch of Prizm hobby boxes (basketball and football), but I snoozed and hence lost out.

I love basketball from the late 80's and 90's. Jordan, Shaq, McGrady, Duncan, Kobe, Malone, Stockton, etc., but relative to print runs (with a few exceptions from Star Co. sets) that stuff is very plentiful compared to what we see now.

Panini pushes out so many products, its hard to keep up. Hobby, retail, mass-merchant (Target and Wal-Mart), but I think for any specific product line the print-run is a tiny fraction of old-school Topps, Ultra, Fleer, Skybox, Stadium Club etc.

HighGradeLegends · October 20, 2018 7:36PM

Kevin Maas

RookieHOFers · October 21, 2018 5:36AM

@ReggieCleveland said:

@PatsGuy5000 said:
Supply numbers ? More PSA 10 graded cards or more cards printed years ago?

More cards printed back then. I bought a box of 1992 Ultra Series II for $3 recently. I know that's not the norm but there's still just SO much of that stuff out there, even after all these years. It seems like there's no end to the unopened product available for Shaq rookies.

Which PSA 10 modern base rookies are you talking about? You're saying non-serial numbered. I think the best non-serial numbered are probably, what? Prizm? I'm honestly not sure so I'm asking.

Arthur

You’re right Arthur, there is a ton of this stuff still out there. I think about Shaq Beam Team RC, which even with tons of this stuff is like a pop 100 card in PSA 10. It’s a really tough pull in 10. To the sellers point, How is it that Jason Tatum with more than three times as many PSA 10 Silver Prizms is selling for more than Shaq’s best RC. That makes no sense to me. It’s definitely a “what have you done for me lately” bunch collecting cards.

ReggieCleveland · October 21, 2018 6:30AM

There's also just more money in modern (the last decade) than probably all other eras combined. Someone else mentioned this somewhere else and I think they may be right -- there's a young (< 30), extremely affluent generation that exists now that never existed before that can afford to drop $8k on a Tatum rookie card.

Arthur

GreenSneakers · October 21, 2018 7:21AM

I would love to read a well researched article on the younger generation collecting habits. Its absolutely true the younger generation has more money than ever before. I know lots of them given the industry in which I work - and a grand total of zero of them collect cardboard. A few will pick up game used memorabilia, but not cards. I surmise that it is because of their affluence thay they dont collect. That generation is much more into experiences and would pay to go to a superbowl, 50 yard line on a private jet, without blinking an eye. Yet picking up a Mahomes rookie would never cross their minds. I was only get close to Fisk, Lynn, Yaz and Rice by trading for their cards - actually going to Fenway wasnt feasible. Not true for younger kids today. And that makes me a bit fearful for the future of the hobby.

PatsGuy5000 · October 21, 2018 8:03AM

Good point on the future of the hobby, nobody really knows, but hopefully it will remain vibrant. There used to be several card stores in every town (late 80’s and early 90’s), and now most are gone. Most have eBay stores or are auctioning off items now. My graded card items garner a lot of interest online, but ungraded items attract far less interest, even for low priced items.

stwainfan · October 21, 2018 8:54AM

I think there are a lot of undervalued cards.

PatsGuy5000 · October 21, 2018 1:43PM

Name some of your picks

rtimmer · October 21, 2018 8:16PM

Here's my top pick.

Ozceltics · October 22, 2018 4:51AM

Tatum is so high right now even “if” he turns into a superstar I can’t see any room for his RC’s to move up higher. I’ll wait a few years to pick up some of his key cards when they fall!

Basketball Rookies - overpriced???

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