Is there an attrition rate on mint, and proof sets per year to determine value? '60's to present.
PocketArt
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I realize there are many factors that determine value with proof, and mint sets. Mintage, desirability, along with demand/supply.
I've always viewed these sets; whether proof, or, mint, as being valued by original condition with envelop/box, along with original inserts from mint, intact, without any break-outs, or, cut-outs, and that would reflect value per Red Book, Coin World, Grey Sheet, etc. Basically a complete set as issued/mailed.
Over time we know some proof sets, mint sets, etc., are dismantled to fill an album, catch a DCAM cherry, variety, or, a particular strike. However, we also know neglect, unusual circumstances, and the desperate need for "money" also attribute to a decline of original sets. This in-turn lowers the supply of intact proof/mint sets.
Personally, I've broken up quite a few proof/mint sets over the past couple of years for some choice coins. Many in the late '60's, early '70's range. Proof, and mint.
I can't be the only one, and I'm sure these proof/mint sets have diminished substantially from their original mintage, and should be, to a degree a factor into the value of intact proof/mint sets considering attrition from these circumstances.
Is there such a factor to gauge this reality?
Comments
I collect in the area of 1970 and earlier proof and mint sets.
I have cut out many premium coins from OGP packaging over the years. Intact OGP packaged sets from 1970 on back (plus probably 1971 forward into the 1980s) still exist in great numbers, but many times the OGP has been damaged greatly.
I know that some people get nostalgic for intact OGP sets (including "sealed sets") and when they find them they question whether to leave the sets alone, or cut out and remove the coins.
I routinely cut out premium coins I find in the OGP sets. The packaging does not matter to me. I would prefer to hold the premium coin in my hand, outside of the mint packaging, so I can view it under optimal lighting conditions. Doing so allows me to get an accurate view of how great the coin is (i.e. DCAM proof or SMS coin, gorgeous toning; booming luster, etc.) or how run of the mill it is. Mint packaging many times hides the true appearance of a coin.
After cutting the coin out of the OGP if it is a keeper it is placed into an aftermarket holder or submitted for grading.
I suppose that an intact OGP set containing premium coins (i.e. 5 Cameo coins in a 1964 proof set) may cause someone to view it as more valuable in the OGP instead of out of it, simply because of the novelty of it. A run of the mill set of coins in OGP would not cause someone to view it as more valuable simply because of the OGP.
Funny you should bring that up. I cracked open some proof sets to get at a particular coin, especially when there is a boogered coin in the same set. Peace Roy
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I have many of those sets... all in original sets....Proof, Mint and Silver sets...all in a box, hibernating....Will do something with them someday....Cheers, RickO
I have certainly broken up many 1971 through 1974 clad Proof sets and clad Mint Sets (at least 100) in recent years. You can't send the Eisenhowers to Coinstar, but that's where the rest goes. It's the only way to get any money out of them.
I would strongly advise anyone with mint sets (especially '65 to 84) to remove the coins and soak in alcohol before they tarnish. These coins are already becoming a mess.
Back in the 80's and 90's I broke open thousands of 70's and 80's proof and mint sets I purchased for less than face. These were so unpopular you could buy them at 10 back of a bid already a few cents less than face. I'd make a buck or two on every set, sometimes 3 (woo hoo, gold mine). The profit provided my coin budget for a quite some time. Also popped silver sets to scrap and for the occasional cam. Others did the same. Nonetheless, a few hundred thousand sets against the MILLIONS in mintage still makes them very common.
Well, once you've got 'em out, most of 'em can just go in a Coinstar.
Yes, Greysheet bid.
And, since bid is still dropping, we know that we haven't broken up enough of the sets yet.
Honey, pass the hammer.
Thanks for comments all. I'm guessing, as honestly I don't know, that there is not a gauge in place to ballpark proof/mint set burn per collector crack-outs, and ordinary attrition per neglect, need, etc....
How is price determined for mint/proof sets? Grey Sheet, Coin World, and Red Book? Is it a guess? What research do they do to determine value? How do collectors trust these valuations as valid?
An inquiring collector wants to know; at least, before I buy a subscription with any of the aforementioned...how do they do it?
The rate of destruction of mint and proof sets is highly erratic over time. Greater interest actually tends to destroy sets since so many are busted up to make up date and denomination sets. This principally affects recent dates but since 1999 has impacted all dates. The number one killer of sets is when the value of the coins in the sets comes to exceed the value of the set. For most dates this happened only once and usually within about ten years of production. When this occurs the first time vast numbers on the wholesale market are busted up to make rolls. Usually the date will from that time on be cut up as soon as they come on the market.
Only very few mint sets are actually kept intact by collectors and speculators. These tend to be nothing special and are just "as they come" rather than choice. The bulk of sets are destroyed. There is a vast overhang of these though even after all these years. There were only a couple million of each date made and 85% are gone now of the earlier dates but the survivors still swamp the demand.
There is a new factor though and that is most of the surviving sets have tarnish called "mint set haze". Finding pristine examples of some of these coins is getting problematical. There is no vast suypply in rolls because most of the rejects are merely spent and now have wear. Circulating clad issues were never saved to start with and now the mint sets are mostly gone and the survivors are mostly tarnished.
Still there is no rush to collect these coins.
But wholesalers are beginning to have trouble keeping these coins in stock and BU Ikes are wholesaling at $2.50 each.
Greysheet.
Wholesalers have dropped their buys to 20-25% back of grey. 10 years ago it was 10% back.
No.
There have never been many buyers of these and there are fewer than ever.
Most of the buy offers I see are 85 to 105% of bid but bid is very low now days.
I believe part of the low offers relative bid and the poor demand is that so many sets have mint set tarnish. Finding a date like the '68 that is still pristine is difficult and finding a Philly cent in the set that is bright and free of spotting is nearly impossible.
Singles used to have a far higher price than intact sets because there was far more demand. But this difference is increasing because so many dates are damaged.
As an example the wholesale price of just the Ikes in a '75 mint set is $6.50 but it's hard to sell an intact original set for much over $5.50.
For one the Philly Ike tends to be atrocious in most sets. They were ugly the day they went in the set and they are no prettier now. Many of these have the tarnish as well.
The only thing to recommend this set is that it's the best source for very high end Philly quarters and the only source for the dimes. But these tend to be tarnished now days as well.
Mint sets are the sole source for most moderns so as these disappear and tarnish there will be no ready source for the few thousand coins the public demands each year.
As a rule about 2% of mint sets are destroyed each year. But, in addition to this about 5% are lost the first couple years of their lives and about 5%+ for the first few years after the value of the coins exceeds the value of the set.
There are also a lot of one-offs that affect them like the 1979 and 2008-2012 silver increases that destroyed many '68 and '69 sets. The last few years have seen millions of coins that were stored in the sets or mint set packaging and tarnished returned to circulation. The low prices of the mid-'80's and '14 to date have also resulted in millions being cut up to make change.
The coins simply aren't missed because the demand remains so low that the wholesale price on even scarcer coins like some of the early dimes remains under 15c. I haven't set my eyes on an intact roll of '69 quarters since 1969 but if you could find this date it would cost you less than $1 per coin!!! I'd be a little surprised if there are three dozen original rolls in existence but it wholesales about $29. There could even be a bag or two out there but this date comes bloody awful and every coin in these hypothetical bags would probably be poorly struck by worn dies and covered in scratches.
The few '69 mint sets that survive are tarnished.
Supply has diminished since the time of issue ... but ... so has demand.
This is the strangest thing about mint sets and applies to the proof sets to a lesser degree as well: There never really was demand for the coins in these sets. You can point at the mintage and say there was a demand for 2,000,000 of them but virtually the entire demand was for sets and very very few sets were purchased for any of the coins they contained. Sure sets were bought though the '90's to obtain 50c pieces and some sets were purchased to keep sets current or to acquire specific coins but the vast majority were being purchased for "investment", "speculation", or simply because they were the only coins available from the mint from '66 to '81. It was more "habit" that caused these to be produced than demand for all the coins in them.
But these sets still represented enormous supply that dwarfed any possible demand. And it was this way right up through 1999. Sets came on the market and they all flowed to the few wholesalers. Since '99 there is a small drawdown in the sets coming on market because a few do collect some of the coins in them now. Because of the enormous supply it's very difficult to see that there is a fast growing demand. It's still pretty small but it's growing exponentially.
There has been some demand going back to about 1980. But this demand was among a handful of specialists seeking Gems and varieties for the main part. The new demand is from the "general public" seeking to complete sets of various denominations. This "general public" is mostly younger people between the ages of 10 and 35 but there are numerous outliers as well.
I'd guess we're up to around 25,000 collectors and 10,000 of these are more advanced. There are some quarter million collecting the coins from pocket change and a couple million collecting only the states and parks quarters.
As mass markets moderns are very much in their infancy.
To put this in perspective it was possible up until ~2005 to get varieties and heavily worn major errors in circulation. Varieties can still be found but things like circulated proofs and old cuds are rarely seen any longer.
In other words most coins in circulation had never even been looked at by advanced collectors. Coins were simply being used to make change. When I started in 1957 virtually every coin in circulation had been scanned dozens of times by someone. By 1964 there was no real chance of getting even something so mundane as a nice VF '37 buffalo. You were not going to find even a semi-key Lincoln cent.
Thank you cladking for indicating attrition data concerning mint/proof sets. Your insights are held in high esteem.
Today I had the fortunate event of purchasing a '60, and a '61 mint set for a combined $30 at local auction. There were many circulated Morgans, Merc's, Roosevelt's, Kennedy's, Franklin's, Walkers's, and silver bullion going for melt, or, slightly below. Most bidders were interested in metal, and not so much the coin.
I purchased a '66, and '67 SMS for $5 a piece too, along with some Morgans at about $14 in AU-BU, a beautiful old ANACS 1882-S 64 for $42.50 with dripping luster, and looks more like a 65. Some foreign to add to the fun as well...shoot, never a dull moment in our hobby. Even if only "little" victories. So much fun...
With the '60, and '61 sets: I will match up with those sets I already have, and if any sleeves are in more pristine condition, I will replace, if not, these will be processed out into my binders, or cardboard 2x2 boxes.
This approach I take with all mint/proof sets from '59-'69.