What is even more amazing to me is the extreme low price of platinum and palladium. Both as far as I can tell are selling well below the true total cost of production and those mines are struggling and future production is going to drop. Something really strange is going on with the entire commodity market.
Yet at the same time people in Turkey, Russia, and Iran, are buying actual gold metal at record levels to protect against their falling currencies. China will by-pass the oil sanctions that start tomorrow by buying Iranian oil with yuan's backed by gold instead of dollars. Might get interesting really soon.
The PM market will be interesting for a while.... until the global economic debt hits a tipping point - and it will come. Then the stackers will rule...Cheers, RickO
@Goldminers said:
What is even more amazing to me is the extreme low price of platinum and palladium. Both as far as I can tell are selling well below the true total cost of production and those mines are struggling and future production is going to drop. Something really strange is going on with the entire commodity market.
Yet at the same time people in Turkey, Russia, and Iran, are buying actual gold metal at record levels to protect against their falling currencies. China will by-pass the oil sanctions that start tomorrow by buying Iranian oil with yuan's backed by gold instead of dollars. Might get interesting really soon.
For materials that are heavily recycled, like platinum and palladium, you can not look at "cost of production" alone.
@Goldminers said:
What is even more amazing to me is the extreme low price of platinum and palladium. Both as far as I can tell are selling well below the true total cost of production and those mines are struggling and future production is going to drop. Something really strange is going on with the entire commodity market.
Yet at the same time people in Turkey, Russia, and Iran, are buying actual gold metal at record levels to protect against their falling currencies. China will by-pass the oil sanctions that start tomorrow by buying Iranian oil with yuan's backed by gold instead of dollars. Might get interesting really soon.
For materials that are heavily recycled, like platinum and palladium, you can not look at "cost of production" alone. This is especially true of gold as we have more than enough for actual industrial use if they never mined another ounce.
@ricko said:
The PM market will be interesting for a while.... until the global economic debt hits a tipping point - and it will come. Then the stackers will rule...Cheers, RickO
This may or may not be true. A debt crisis can lead to deflation as well as inflation, depending on how it's handled, in which case the PM price could go down and not up.
@Goldminers said:
What is even more amazing to me is the extreme low price of platinum and palladium. Both as far as I can tell are selling well below the true total cost of production and those mines are struggling and future production is going to drop. Something really strange is going on with the entire commodity market.
Yet at the same time people in Turkey, Russia, and Iran, are buying actual gold metal at record levels to protect against their falling currencies. China will by-pass the oil sanctions that start tomorrow by buying Iranian oil with yuan's backed by gold instead of dollars. Might get interesting really soon.
For materials that are heavily recycled, like platinum and palladium, you can not look at "cost of production" alone.
Yes, I agree and recycling has to be factored in. Only Russia can afford to sell platinum at these prices as it is basically a by-product of their large nickel mine. Data shows recycling supplies 2 million ounces a year and mining 6 million to meet 8 million demand. My point is the 6 million ounces/year from the mines is headed down.
I believe there is going to be a shortage next few years and these prices will look cheap, but my crystal ball may have a crack in it and can't be relied on all the time.
Just did a gold IRA for a client, recently. Wouldn't you know he could have gotten much more , today ?
He may have to trade it for a loaf of bread, soon.
@Goldminers said:
Most all the eBay bucks I get seem to exclude coins and bullion, so I do not understand why they matter so much?
They don't exclude coins, they exclude bullion. So you can buy things like pre-1933 gold in the pre-1933 gold category. Or, for example, you can buy 20 Franc coins under France or Switzerland coins or sovereigns under UK coins.
@TwoSides2aCoin said:
Just did a gold IRA for a client, recently. Wouldn't you know he could have gotten much more , today ?
He may have to trade it for a loaf of bread, soon.
I tried the IRA thing. The Government swooped down on my house and thought I was a terrorist.
Pete
"I tell them there's no problems.....only solutions" - John Lennon
@Goldminers said:
Most all the eBay bucks I get seem to exclude coins and bullion, so I do not understand why they matter so much?
They don't exclude coins, they exclude bullion. So you can buy things like pre-1933 gold in the pre-1933 gold category. Or, for example, you can buy 20 Franc coins under France or Switzerland coins or sovereigns under UK coins.
JM, Thanks very much for the clarification. That is really helpful!
However, the only pre-gold I am looking for is a MS-64 1911-S $10 Indian, not dipped, and I seriously doubt a real one will be listed during big eBay buck promotions. But I could get lucky? LOL
I kept seeing Coins and Money excluded in the eBay fine print, so ignored them, but now I see it is followed by (but only for bullion within that category). I just did not read it right the first time and have not taken advantage of these for way too long.
I do buy a lot of graded coins on eBay in the "bullion" category so wish there was a better category for graded vs raw bullion. I still consider PCGS PR70 slabbed eagles, coins, but they usually are listed as bullion.
I still have a lot to learn, if I can live long enough.
@Goldminers said:
Most all the eBay bucks I get seem to exclude coins and bullion, so I do not understand why they matter so much?
They don't exclude coins, they exclude bullion. So you can buy things like pre-1933 gold in the pre-1933 gold category. Or, for example, you can buy 20 Franc coins under France or Switzerland coins or sovereigns under UK coins.
JM, Thanks very much for the clarification. That is really helpful!
However, the only pre-gold I am looking for is a MS-64 1911-S $10 Indian, not dipped, and I seriously doubt a real one will be listed during big eBay buck promotions. But I could get lucky? LOL
Much pre-1933 gold in 63 or less is basically bullion. Last eBay bucks promo, I bought $20 AU/Unc libs at $29.99 over melt and got $100 eBay bucks back. Even 62 or 63 slabs are often only $50 or so over melt.
@jmlanzaf said:
print, so ignored them, but now I see it is followed by (but only for bullion within that category). I just did not read it right the first time and have not taken advantage of these for way too long.
I do buy a lot of graded coins on eBay in the "bullion" category so wish there was a better category for graded vs raw bullion. I still consider PCGS PR70 slabbed eagles, coins, but they usually are listed as bullion.
I still have a lot to learn, if I can live long enough.
oh, the other thing to pay attention to is the seller. The big bullion sellers (Apmex etc.) get preferred rates on bullion items which is why they even tend to put slabbed eagles under bullion. Small fry like me pay the same regardless of category. So, if you see a coin you want and it's in bullion, you could request the seller to move it to a different category so you can buy it and get the bucks.
I intentionally put even bullion items under coin categories so people can get the bucks.
@tradedollarnut said:
Gold will stop going down when interest rates stop going up
I don't see where the fed really has a choice but to raise interest rates. There has been a lot of cheap cash going around and that lends itself to the creation of asset bubbles.
I don't think the bottom is anywhere near yet as long as the dollar stays strong. I could easily see gold slipping back below $1100 or even $1000 an ounce. If the latter happens, you would see tons of money pour into precious metals, and hopefully our hobby would be a beneficiary of it.
@cameonut2011 said:
I don't think the bottom is anywhere near yet as long as the dollar stays strong. I could easily see gold slipping back below $1100 or even $1000 an ounce. If the latter happens, you would see tons of money pour into precious metals, and hopefully our hobby would be a beneficiary of it.
Half agree. I think you could see gold slipping down to a bottom in the $1000 range. If it does, that will not benefit the hobby UNTIL prices go back up. Coin prices are a trailing indicator on metal moves. If gold drops another $200, expect to see a lot of widget coin prices dropping. It's going to be a fire sale on common date MS64 Morgans and gold
there is only about 20 -1911-S $10 indian golds available from both pcgs and ngc at about a 15,000 price point. I haven't seen one come up for auction in a long time
@cameonut2011 said:
I don't think the bottom is anywhere near yet as long as the dollar stays strong. I could easily see gold slipping back below $1100 or even $1000 an ounce. If the latter happens, you would see tons of money pour into precious metals, and hopefully our hobby would be a beneficiary of it.
Half agree. I think you could see gold slipping down to a bottom in the $1000 range. If it does, that will not benefit the hobby UNTIL prices go back up. Coin prices are a trailing indicator on metal moves. If gold drops another $200, expect to see a lot of widget coin prices dropping. It's going to be a fire sale on common date MS64 Morgans and gold
I agree with what you're saying. My point was that if gold drops that low, I think people will seek out gold in large quantities and cause things to shift back upward price wise because of the increased demand. I see $1000/oz as being a game changer psychologically at least to the gold stackers.
@cameonut2011 said:
I don't think the bottom is anywhere near yet as long as the dollar stays strong. I could easily see gold slipping back below $1100 or even $1000 an ounce. If the latter happens, you would see tons of money pour into precious metals, and hopefully our hobby would be a beneficiary of it.
Half agree. I think you could see gold slipping down to a bottom in the $1000 range. If it does, that will not benefit the hobby UNTIL prices go back up. Coin prices are a trailing indicator on metal moves. If gold drops another $200, expect to see a lot of widget coin prices dropping. It's going to be a fire sale on common date MS64 Morgans and gold
I agree with what you're saying. My point was that if gold drops that low, I think people will seek out gold in large quantities and cause things to shift back upward price wise because of the increased demand. I see $1000/oz as being a game changer psychologically at least to the gold stackers.
Something seismic is coming. I'm just not 100% sure which way it's going to shake. $990 gold could cause a flood of buyers or a flood of panicked sellers. Market psychology always works against reason with PMs as well as stocks. When the market surges, people don't want to be left out and buy all the way up. When prices start sliding, people panic over their paper losses and want to stem the bleeding and sell on the way down.
PMs are a little different because of the gold bugs, but psychology is what it is.
@TwoSides2aCoin said:
Just did a gold IRA for a client, recently. Wouldn't you know he could have gotten much more , today ?
He may have to trade it for a loaf of bread, soon.
Sounds like MY ...first....broker. Went to school with him and he faithfully advised me whenever something he bought for someone else went up.
I think he figured it was "cold calling."
Well it got a bit ICY when I fired him.
I mean like clockwork.... "Boy, you oughtta get on this deal right now because a guy YESTERDAY.. bought something very SIMILAR and is he ever happy.
@ricko said:
The PM market will be interesting for a while.... until the global economic debt hits a tipping point - and it will come. Then the stackers will rule...Cheers, RickO
@tradedollarnut said:
Gold will stop going down when interest rates stop going up
You call CURRENT rates... UP ??
OMG
They have gone up over the last several years. The issue isn't interest rates themselves, but the effect interest rates have on the dollar. As low as our interest rates are, they are higher than Japan or the EU.
Comments
waiting on 8% ebuck promo to kick in 24 hours.
Not so sure this is the bottom. Every time I think it cannot go lower it does.
many PM analysts have been calling for a bottom closer to $1000 for months....
To some people it’s buy, buy, buy!
I wish I could be at the ANA to see what’s going on with the dealers that specialize in bullion.
Grab that falling knife ........
I'm really good at buying near the top. Not so good at guessing when the bottoms have hit.
What is even more amazing to me is the extreme low price of platinum and palladium. Both as far as I can tell are selling well below the true total cost of production and those mines are struggling and future production is going to drop. Something really strange is going on with the entire commodity market.
Yet at the same time people in Turkey, Russia, and Iran, are buying actual gold metal at record levels to protect against their falling currencies. China will by-pass the oil sanctions that start tomorrow by buying Iranian oil with yuan's backed by gold instead of dollars. Might get interesting really soon.
National Commemorative Medals of the U.S. Mint:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/medals-tokens/national-commemorative-medals-united-states-mint-1940-present/alltimeset/195526
I've been waiting too. Know what I want but cheaper is better
Lafayette Grading Set
It's been interesting to watch so far.
My YouTube Channel
Where can you buy online at the actual price? That part not so easy.
The PM market will be interesting for a while.... until the global economic debt hits a tipping point - and it will come. Then the stackers will rule...Cheers, RickO
Kitco pool account
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Unfortunately won't affect mine ending in a couple days.....sellers seem quicker to adjust on the up.....
Good if you can buy, just don't bet the farm on it.
Count me in with the pool....if they throw in a life preserver!
Thank you for that. I’ll look into it for sure.
Happy hunting, Joe
I can make it go lower. All I have to do is buy.
No, really, I mean it. You guys should be thanking me for not falling for the "low spot" thing.
I buy the same all year round and it evens out in the LONGGGGG run.
Best place to buy !
Bronze Associate member
Gold will stop going down when interest rates stop going up
For materials that are heavily recycled, like platinum and palladium, you can not look at "cost of production" alone.
For materials that are heavily recycled, like platinum and palladium, you can not look at "cost of production" alone. This is especially true of gold as we have more than enough for actual industrial use if they never mined another ounce.
This may or may not be true. A debt crisis can lead to deflation as well as inflation, depending on how it's handled, in which case the PM price could go down and not up.
Is there actually a bucks starting tomorrow? Or are you just joking?
Successful transactions with: wondercoin, Tetromibi, PerryHall, PlatinumDuck, JohnMaben/Pegasus Coin & Jewelry, CoinFlip, and coinlieutenant.
Yes, I agree and recycling has to be factored in. Only Russia can afford to sell platinum at these prices as it is basically a by-product of their large nickel mine. Data shows recycling supplies 2 million ounces a year and mining 6 million to meet 8 million demand. My point is the 6 million ounces/year from the mines is headed down.
I believe there is going to be a shortage next few years and these prices will look cheap, but my crystal ball may have a crack in it and can't be relied on all the time.
Latest report:
National Commemorative Medals of the U.S. Mint:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/medals-tokens/national-commemorative-medals-united-states-mint-1940-present/alltimeset/195526
There has been a member here in the know (not sure how, but he is), and he says one is coming tomorrow. I would bet on it.
Oh cool! I wonder how he knows.
Successful transactions with: wondercoin, Tetromibi, PerryHall, PlatinumDuck, JohnMaben/Pegasus Coin & Jewelry, CoinFlip, and coinlieutenant.
Just did a gold IRA for a client, recently. Wouldn't you know he could have gotten much more , today ?
He may have to trade it for a loaf of bread, soon.
Simple, he probably knows someone who works in eBay promotions.
Most all the eBay bucks I get seem to exclude coins and bullion, so I do not understand why they matter so much?
National Commemorative Medals of the U.S. Mint:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/medals-tokens/national-commemorative-medals-united-states-mint-1940-present/alltimeset/195526
They don't exclude coins, they exclude bullion. So you can buy things like pre-1933 gold in the pre-1933 gold category. Or, for example, you can buy 20 Franc coins under France or Switzerland coins or sovereigns under UK coins.
There is a lot of truth to your strategy.
Pete
I tried the IRA thing. The Government swooped down on my house and thought I was a terrorist.
Pete
Dollar cost averaging is my plan !!!
JM, Thanks very much for the clarification. That is really helpful!
However, the only pre-gold I am looking for is a MS-64 1911-S $10 Indian, not dipped, and I seriously doubt a real one will be listed during big eBay buck promotions. But I could get lucky? LOL
I kept seeing Coins and Money excluded in the eBay fine print, so ignored them, but now I see it is followed by (but only for bullion within that category). I just did not read it right the first time and have not taken advantage of these for way too long.
I do buy a lot of graded coins on eBay in the "bullion" category so wish there was a better category for graded vs raw bullion. I still consider PCGS PR70 slabbed eagles, coins, but they usually are listed as bullion.
I still have a lot to learn, if I can live long enough.
National Commemorative Medals of the U.S. Mint:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/medals-tokens/national-commemorative-medals-united-states-mint-1940-present/alltimeset/195526
Much pre-1933 gold in 63 or less is basically bullion. Last eBay bucks promo, I bought $20 AU/Unc libs at $29.99 over melt and got $100 eBay bucks back. Even 62 or 63 slabs are often only $50 or so over melt.
oh, the other thing to pay attention to is the seller. The big bullion sellers (Apmex etc.) get preferred rates on bullion items which is why they even tend to put slabbed eagles under bullion. Small fry like me pay the same regardless of category. So, if you see a coin you want and it's in bullion, you could request the seller to move it to a different category so you can buy it and get the bucks.
I intentionally put even bullion items under coin categories so people can get the bucks.
I don't see where the fed really has a choice but to raise interest rates. There has been a lot of cheap cash going around and that lends itself to the creation of asset bubbles.
I don't think the bottom is anywhere near yet as long as the dollar stays strong. I could easily see gold slipping back below $1100 or even $1000 an ounce. If the latter happens, you would see tons of money pour into precious metals, and hopefully our hobby would be a beneficiary of it.
Half agree. I think you could see gold slipping down to a bottom in the $1000 range. If it does, that will not benefit the hobby UNTIL prices go back up. Coin prices are a trailing indicator on metal moves. If gold drops another $200, expect to see a lot of widget coin prices dropping. It's going to be a fire sale on common date MS64 Morgans and gold
there is only about 20 -1911-S $10 indian golds available from both pcgs and ngc at about a 15,000 price point. I haven't seen one come up for auction in a long time
in MS-64
I agree with what you're saying. My point was that if gold drops that low, I think people will seek out gold in large quantities and cause things to shift back upward price wise because of the increased demand. I see $1000/oz as being a game changer psychologically at least to the gold stackers.
Something seismic is coming. I'm just not 100% sure which way it's going to shake. $990 gold could cause a flood of buyers or a flood of panicked sellers. Market psychology always works against reason with PMs as well as stocks. When the market surges, people don't want to be left out and buy all the way up. When prices start sliding, people panic over their paper losses and want to stem the bleeding and sell on the way down.
PMs are a little different because of the gold bugs, but psychology is what it is.
Sounds like MY ...first....broker. Went to school with him and he faithfully advised me whenever something he bought for someone else went up.
I think he figured it was "cold calling."
Well it got a bit ICY when I fired him.
I mean like clockwork.... "Boy, you oughtta get on this deal right now because a guy YESTERDAY.. bought something very SIMILAR and is he ever happy.
Bye bye.
Who's gonna send the late notice?
You call CURRENT rates... UP ??
OMG
They have gone up over the last several years. The issue isn't interest rates themselves, but the effect interest rates have on the dollar. As low as our interest rates are, they are higher than Japan or the EU.
"You're fired". I can hear it, now.
Exactly. Prime at 8-9% will occur over the next five years unless the trade wars cause a recession. Gold will be $600-700 an ounce at that rate.