When we have a currency crisis and gold/silver are revalued at 10x their current levels, would that appreciate numismatic values or does it only affect the bullion value of the coins? A crisis like that would hamper many peoples' savings but at the same time many would be jumping over one another trying to acquire whatever gold/silver they can get their hands on, so im not entirely sure what would happen to prices of numismatic coins.
An 1873 MS63 gold dollar goes for $500 but has a bullion value of $50. If gold goes up 10x, now the bullion value reaches $500 matching the numismatic price, but does the numismatic value go up as well?
Well the Boss may have overpaid, but maybe to get the whole deal you have come up on some.. That is dramatic however. Time to give it away at a coin club meeting!!
Unfortunately, in my case, any drop in prices (which I don't actually see in the case of early copper), is more than offset by the drop in the relative value of the NZD. Oh well. Swings and roundabouts.
@from_here_to_brazil said:
When we have a currency crisis and gold/silver are revalued at 10x their current levels, would that appreciate numismatic values or does it only affect the bullion value of the coins? A crisis like that would hamper many peoples' savings but at the same time many would be jumping over one another trying to acquire whatever gold/silver they can get their hands on, so im not entirely sure what would happen to prices of numismatic coins.
An 1873 MS63 gold dollar goes for $500 but has a bullion value of $50. If gold goes up 10x, now the bullion value reaches $500 matching the numismatic price, but does the numismatic value go up as well?
A currency crisis, depending on its nature, does not have to lead to gold/silver increases. Deflation is also a currency crisis and has the opposite effect. It is important to see both sides of the trade.
I would also suggest that buying classic gold in case of a currency crisis is about the worst possible hedge.
@dlmtorts said:
I think that availability plays a large role too. You can now find anything easily online. When I returned to collecting a decade or so ago, I was surprised at what I had always thought were scarce key date coins could be easily found online and better grade common dates were plentiful online.
Have to disagree re coins being easily found on the internet. If they're common coins, yes. But a scarce coin in a tough grade usually is in strong hands. That, and in some cases, certain coins in the same grade are priced all over the place. Look at the 12 S Nickel in MS 66. All MS 66s of this date are not created equal.
"Vou invadir o Nordeste, "Seu cabra da peste, "Sou Mangueira......."
@from_here_to_brazil said:
When we have a currency crisis and gold/silver are revalued at 10x their current levels, would that appreciate numismatic values or does it only affect the bullion value of the coins? A crisis like that would hamper many peoples' savings but at the same time many would be jumping over one another trying to acquire whatever gold/silver they can get their hands on, so im not entirely sure what would happen to prices of numismatic coins.
An 1873 MS63 gold dollar goes for $500 but has a bullion value of $50. If gold goes up 10x, now the bullion value reaches $500 matching the numismatic price, but does the numismatic value go up as well?
Seems to me I've been hearing about a currency crisis causing gold to spike to fantastical levels ever since the late 1970's. I haven't seen that currency crisis yet. At 40 years and counting that's more than half the life expectancy of the average American. FWW, gold is up a little under 6 X since the end of 1978.
If you had bought the Dow at the end of 1978 you would have 30 X the value of your investment PLUS whatever dividends you got in the interim.
@dlmtorts said:
I think that availability plays a large role too. You can now find anything easily online. When I returned to collecting a decade or so ago, I was surprised at what I had always thought were scarce key date coins could be easily found online and better grade common dates were plentiful online.
Works the other way too. There are certain coins in certain grades that just are not available despite searching online
@SkyMan said:
Seems to me I've been hearing about a currency crisis causing gold to spike to fantastical levels ever since the late 1970's. I haven't seen that currency crisis yet. At 40 years and counting that's more than half the life expectancy of the average American. FWW, gold is up a little under 6 X since the end of 1978.
If you had bought the Dow at the end of 1978 you would have 30 X the value of your investment PLUS whatever dividends you got in the interim.
Regardless of an official currency crisis happening back then, the 1970's still saw fantastical levels during the biggest bull market in gold going from $35/ozt to $900/ozt., over the course of 9 years. A 30x move in the DOW would never be achieved in that timespan without hyperinflation. Another move like that in gold is possible and numismatic coins would appreciate greatly just on their bullion value, but I'm not sure if collector value would also go up or if it would drop and cancel out any gains from gold's rise.
Technological and communications change over the past 20 years have pushed aside what many forum members and their peers consider coin collecting. This is both from availability and value perspectives.
Two decades ago the prime MBA business models were FedEx for logistics, Coca Cola and 7-Up for marketing, and IBM for technology. Today they are barely mentioned. The present icons are Amazon (a logistics company, not really a retailer), Apple (for marketing nothing of value to the masses and convincing them they 'need' it), and Alphabet/Google for technology.
Today’s coin shows are pale reflections of ones long ago, and today’s dealers attend only to have a physical presence, meet older customers, support some ideal organization concept, and enjoy a break from office boredom. Communication and a temporary rise in prices once pulled many coins out of hiding and into collections at high prices. Now, many of these will sit there until “death do us part.” The same forces also revealed there are more choice quality coins across higher condition levels than the “experts” anticipated; but quantities suppressed prices and now the auction and general collector market has an abundance of marginal quality pieces. (Today's net market assessment of 'rare coins' is strongly negative.)
What will replace or re-image our present fantasies?
There are a bunch of young coin business and collecting people out there. Members of this and other forums never interact with them or when they do, tend to blow them off as unsophisticated. This hobby is, for the present, too small to offer meaningful encouragement to innovators – there’s just not a lot of profit, financial or emotional, in the hobby. One thought: start with complete renovation of the American Numismatic Association. For now it is home to an annual cycle of repetition, sameness, dullness, inaction, and lack of direction; maybe they could get rid of the cadre of old farts-old ideas, and change – rapidly, positively, innovatively (invented word), pro-hobby. They could also partner to market the hobby. Not the long-dead “coin week” stuff, but the core of what makes this an interesting use of time and resources in today’s, and tomorrow’s, social organization.
The example posted by AllCoinsRule is also part of the downside of inconsistent, non-fixed, and pathetically inflated "grading" by the major TPGs. The 2006 4/0 coin might really still be at that position in relation to others in the 2017 31/4 population - but it is impossible to know this.....The 'grades' no longer have their original meaning and no one can reasonably compare them any longer.
The nice thing about keeping coins as a ...hobby... is that you can sell at a loss and still buy something new that will also drop in price but you'll be giddy about it for a while.
Until late 2013 the pop in 67fs had only gone up by two coins, from 4 to 6. Then by late 2015 it was 16/2 and then 31/4 by late 2017. Plenty of other dates of nickels, Lincolns, and Roosies have had similar 90-97% decreases in what was once a low pop top grade coin.
Technological and communications change over the past 20 years have pushed aside what many forum members and their peers consider coin collecting. This is both from availability and value perspectives.
Two decades ago the prime MBA business models were FedEx for logistics, Coca Cola and 7-Up for marketing, and IBM for technology. Today they are barely mentioned. The present icons are Amazon (a logistics company, not really a retailer), Apple (for marketing nothing of value to the masses and convincing them they 'need' it), and Alphabet/Google for technology.
Today’s coin shows are pale reflections of ones long ago, and today’s dealers attend only to have a physical presence, meet older customers, support some ideal organization concept, and enjoy a break from office boredom. Communication and a temporary rise in prices once pulled many coins out of hiding and into collections at high prices. Now, many of these will sit there until “death do us part.” The same forces also revealed there are more choice quality coins across higher condition levels than the “experts” anticipated; but quantities suppressed prices and now the auction and general collector market has an abundance of marginal quality pieces. (Today's net market assessment of 'rare coins' is strongly negative.)
What will replace or re-image our present fantasies?
There are a bunch of young coin business and collecting people out there. Members of this and other forums never interact with them or when they do, tend to blow them off as unsophisticated. This hobby is, for the present, too small to offer meaningful encouragement to innovators – there’s just not a lot of profit, financial or emotional, in the hobby. One thought: start with complete renovation of the American Numismatic Association. For now it is home to an annual cycle of repetition, sameness, dullness, inaction, and lack of direction; maybe they could get rid of the cadre of old farts-old ideas, and change – rapidly, positively, innovatively (invented word), pro-hobby. They could also partner to market the hobby. Not the long-dead “coin week” stuff, but the core of what makes this an interesting use of time and resources in today’s, and tomorrow’s, social organization.
Think global. I believe the ANA is partnering .
The ANA worlds fair of money is called that for good reason.
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
The ANA convention is the same-old-same-old. Having a few foreign mints with sales booths is not "partnering." It's not even "marketing." It's just selling stuff.
ANA does little or nothing on national promotion - except dried leaves. It has no meaningful presence with members of Congress or Treasury or Secret Service and Customs. Internationally it does not exist. Where was ANA's FoC when the Langboard's coins were being vilified and taken; where was it when rampant violations of HPA and Counterfeiting statutes began overwhelming potential new hobbyists. Did ANA offer to work with the US Mint to prosecute violators?
Pick your answer: No or No.
Objectively, ANA abrogated its Federal Charter when it turned its back on ANACS and other active collector protection opportunities. Now...? Meh....It occupies a trailer-like structure in Colorado Springs, that's about it.
@keets said: Where was ANA's FoC when the Langboard's coins were being vilified and taken
exactly where they were when the Government's coins were being taken by the Langbords ancestor.
Since the coins were never reported missing, nor was any gold missing before, during or after the 1933 DE were produced, stored, or melted, then there is no answer.
it was an interesting, long, intricate case. all the legaleeze aside and looking at things from a common sense perspective, two things always stuck in my mind --- Izzy Switt knew he wasn't supposed to have the coins and I never believed that his heirs had no knowledge of what was in that SDB.
BTW, I agree with your analysis of the ANA, they don't really do anything that I perceive as benefitting me. I'm sure other members will come and correct that perception. I think they could do a lot, they just don't.
Comments
I'm a coin collector and really don't buy for appreciation potential. Same with my gun collection and cars.
I save that for the casinos and stock markets, which are about the same things in my book
When we have a currency crisis and gold/silver are revalued at 10x their current levels, would that appreciate numismatic values or does it only affect the bullion value of the coins? A crisis like that would hamper many peoples' savings but at the same time many would be jumping over one another trying to acquire whatever gold/silver they can get their hands on, so im not entirely sure what would happen to prices of numismatic coins.
An 1873 MS63 gold dollar goes for $500 but has a bullion value of $50. If gold goes up 10x, now the bullion value reaches $500 matching the numismatic price, but does the numismatic value go up as well?
Well the Boss may have overpaid, but maybe to get the whole deal you have come up on some.. That is dramatic however. Time to give it away at a coin club meeting!!
Unfortunately, in my case, any drop in prices (which I don't actually see in the case of early copper), is more than offset by the drop in the relative value of the NZD. Oh well. Swings and roundabouts.
Smitten with DBLCs.
A currency crisis, depending on its nature, does not have to lead to gold/silver increases. Deflation is also a currency crisis and has the opposite effect. It is important to see both sides of the trade.
I would also suggest that buying classic gold in case of a currency crisis is about the worst possible hedge.
In my ever humble opinion.
Have to disagree re coins being easily found on the internet. If they're common coins, yes. But a scarce coin in a tough grade usually is in strong hands. That, and in some cases, certain coins in the same grade are priced all over the place. Look at the 12 S Nickel in MS 66. All MS 66s of this date are not created equal.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
Seems to me I've been hearing about a currency crisis causing gold to spike to fantastical levels ever since the late 1970's. I haven't seen that currency crisis yet. At 40 years and counting that's more than half the life expectancy of the average American. FWW, gold is up a little under 6 X since the end of 1978.
If you had bought the Dow at the end of 1978 you would have 30 X the value of your investment PLUS whatever dividends you got in the interim.
U.S. Type Set
Works the other way too. There are certain coins in certain grades that just are not available despite searching online
Regardless of an official currency crisis happening back then, the 1970's still saw fantastical levels during the biggest bull market in gold going from $35/ozt to $900/ozt., over the course of 9 years. A 30x move in the DOW would never be achieved in that timespan without hyperinflation. Another move like that in gold is possible and numismatic coins would appreciate greatly just on their bullion value, but I'm not sure if collector value would also go up or if it would drop and cancel out any gains from gold's rise.
A two-cent piece comment:
Technological and communications change over the past 20 years have pushed aside what many forum members and their peers consider coin collecting. This is both from availability and value perspectives.
Two decades ago the prime MBA business models were FedEx for logistics, Coca Cola and 7-Up for marketing, and IBM for technology. Today they are barely mentioned. The present icons are Amazon (a logistics company, not really a retailer), Apple (for marketing nothing of value to the masses and convincing them they 'need' it), and Alphabet/Google for technology.
Today’s coin shows are pale reflections of ones long ago, and today’s dealers attend only to have a physical presence, meet older customers, support some ideal organization concept, and enjoy a break from office boredom. Communication and a temporary rise in prices once pulled many coins out of hiding and into collections at high prices. Now, many of these will sit there until “death do us part.” The same forces also revealed there are more choice quality coins across higher condition levels than the “experts” anticipated; but quantities suppressed prices and now the auction and general collector market has an abundance of marginal quality pieces. (Today's net market assessment of 'rare coins' is strongly negative.)
What will replace or re-image our present fantasies?
There are a bunch of young coin business and collecting people out there. Members of this and other forums never interact with them or when they do, tend to blow them off as unsophisticated. This hobby is, for the present, too small to offer meaningful encouragement to innovators – there’s just not a lot of profit, financial or emotional, in the hobby. One thought: start with complete renovation of the American Numismatic Association. For now it is home to an annual cycle of repetition, sameness, dullness, inaction, and lack of direction; maybe they could get rid of the cadre of old farts-old ideas, and change – rapidly, positively, innovatively (invented word), pro-hobby. They could also partner to market the hobby. Not the long-dead “coin week” stuff, but the core of what makes this an interesting use of time and resources in today’s, and tomorrow’s, social organization.
Great thread. Very true as I've watched the price drop dramatically for gold Indian coins among many other gold type coins.
My YouTube Channel
It's a great time to buy in my opinion.
My YouTube Channel
The example posted by AllCoinsRule is also part of the downside of inconsistent, non-fixed, and pathetically inflated "grading" by the major TPGs. The 2006 4/0 coin might really still be at that position in relation to others in the 2017 31/4 population - but it is impossible to know this.....The 'grades' no longer have their original meaning and no one can reasonably compare them any longer.
Be still, my heart.
The nice thing about keeping coins as a ...hobby... is that you can sell at a loss and still buy something new that will also drop in price but you'll be giddy about it for a while.
Great example.
Uncirculated?
That's too much!
Think global. I believe the ANA is partnering .
The ANA worlds fair of money is called that for good reason.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
The ANA convention is the same-old-same-old. Having a few foreign mints with sales booths is not "partnering." It's not even "marketing." It's just selling stuff.
ANA does little or nothing on national promotion - except dried leaves. It has no meaningful presence with members of Congress or Treasury or Secret Service and Customs. Internationally it does not exist. Where was ANA's FoC when the Langboard's coins were being vilified and taken; where was it when rampant violations of HPA and Counterfeiting statutes began overwhelming potential new hobbyists. Did ANA offer to work with the US Mint to prosecute violators?
Pick your answer: No or No.
Objectively, ANA abrogated its Federal Charter when it turned its back on ANACS and other active collector protection opportunities. Now...? Meh....It occupies a trailer-like structure in Colorado Springs, that's about it.
Where was ANA's FoC when the Langboard's coins were being vilified and taken
exactly where they were when the Government's coins were being taken by the Langbords ancestor.
Since the coins were never reported missing, nor was any gold missing before, during or after the 1933 DE were produced, stored, or melted, then there is no answer.
it was an interesting, long, intricate case. all the legaleeze aside and looking at things from a common sense perspective, two things always stuck in my mind --- Izzy Switt knew he wasn't supposed to have the coins and I never believed that his heirs had no knowledge of what was in that SDB.
BTW, I agree with your analysis of the ANA, they don't really do anything that I perceive as benefitting me. I'm sure other members will come and correct that perception. I think they could do a lot, they just don't.