How's the coin market been trending?
Bochiman
Posts: 25,556 ✭✭✭✭✭
I haven't done much in pretty much over a year (personal reasons) and was just curious if people have been seeing a static market, an upward trending market, or a downward trending market?
Obviously, it can be split in many ways, so if you comment, could you please put in the areas that you are talking about?
For instance, if Stooge commented, he may be commenting on modern Roosevelts.
If TDN commented, it may be the high end, high grade, coins.
If RickO commented, it would likely be the untoned market 
So, moderns?
EAC?
Morgans?
Etc?
Also, do you, yourself, see it continuing a certain way, or changing and, if so, is there a catalyst you see for that?
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
Comments
My coins are in the $500-$15,000 range (prices at the time of purchase). I have cut back on purchases, largely because my intuition regarding the next 10 years is not favorable. I am 61, and don't have the time to wait out two market cycles. I feel the same way about numismatic literature collectibles.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
Common US gold is cheap, cheaper, cheapest. Looking at our hosts' 5 and 10-year trend lines of late-date Liberty, Indian, and Saint gold through MS63, they are all mostly lower YOY. How low can it go?
Meanwhile I'm building Year Sets on the cheap. I finished my 1907 gold year set except for the $10 Indian Wire and Rolled (not so cheap ;-))...and am now working on the 1911 gold year set.
Buyers market. Enjoy.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
There are only 127 1907 twenties on eBay now.
"1-48 of 127 Results"
$200-$500 Type Coins: Flat. I don't see much movement, up or down.
I have a feeling though that these coins are like the outer suburbs of the housing market: The last to be affected by any prevailing trend.
Seems to me that the market has been "soft" for awhile with no end in the immediate future !!!
Market is hot for colorful tarnished coins... amazing premiums. Personally, I have not been buying much, though the general market has been flat to a bit down. Cheers, RickO
The market for collectible holders is strong.
I have "just about completed" another upgrade of my Morgan Dollars "this year". (will probably try again in a year or so) I had a hard time finding really high quality material via coins shows, on line shops, dealers want lists, etc. Key coins in high quality/higher grades just don't seem to be available. Key dates/grades are available if you are willing to accept problem (or toned
) coins. Prices are down somewhat (buyers market). I'm a coin collector and not a coin investor so the prices are great for me.
The market is polarized. Generics are dropping, while premium quality keys and better dates continue to bring stronger prices.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
For classic coins (not moderns) unquestionable two tier coin market. Dreck can't do low enough-which pulls down nice coins, while the best coins (and series any price) enjoy robust demand and strong prices.
According to Richard Nachbar everything is going like hot-cakes! (I am not to confident in his credibility though haha, retirement my arse!)
If you haven't been very selective in your purchases the market is going to be very unkind to you. If you have been very selective in your purchases you should be OK.
Define selective. I generally agree with you, but merely buying nice coins isn't enough. How are 1942 proof sets doing in 65? How about generic gold in 65 or 66? Most classic commems are dead unless their colors are wild. I haven't seen large cents from the 1850's going gangbusters either. Etc.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
The emphasis should be on VERY in terms of selectivity.
It is not just the coins themselves but the level of demand now and in the future that needs to be taken into consideration. From my own personal standpoint, anything after 1933 would be avoided. I would also avoid unpopular series like three cent nickels, shield nickels and liberty nickels. I've never been much into gold coins but would view most of them negatively because there are few serious date collectors, because large quantities are probably still held overseas and because I think the grading of gold by the TPGs is far too liberal.
Morgan dollars ... how those common things continue to maintain their popularity amazes me. Will the popularity last?
Minor varieties ... avoid period ... this is the realm of the cherry-pickers and cherry pickers don't pay premiums, they cherry-pick.
I could go on but to sum it up maybe 1% of the typical offerings at coin shows are really worth considering. Collectors need a crystal ball to look into the future and surmise demand several years down the road.
Collectables seem to remain steady and even strong in some areas. The noticeable reduction in the Bullion market seems to have masked that. Dog days of summer have been upon us.
Best place to buy !
Bronze Associate member
This, the Pacific Ocean is calling ........
You should collect what you like, but realize that resale markets for at least 80% of all coin stuff have been slipping in price since 2012-2013.
Pleasure is a scarce commodity in this vale of tears, and worth paying for.
I haven't been collecting long enough to stat anything but I do noticed some ease finding better graded Saints.
It's probably due to soft spot
Buy China pre-1949 coin the return is very good. Some of the coin price is keep moving up.
Argument that gets some traction is that gradeflation has diminished the value of non cac'd coins. I look to the modern $5-10 gold's where any grade short of 70 has little influence on price. $5 MS Robinson and $10 MS Lib of Congress are 80% off there highs.
Common MS 63 and 64 Morgans are at or near ten year lows.
Nations population has nearly doubled since the early 1960's but the base of collectors has declined. Top tier collectors will continue to drive the six and seven figure coins. One wonders if there will be a market for a gem but pretty common 1885-CC dollar at $1000, going forward.
This graph tells use something, but I'm not entirely sure what. At a minimum it tells us that the average price for the coins in this index is the same today as it was in 2003, 1993, and 1985. To beat inflation it seems you would have needed to buy in the 1970's or earlier.
LIBERTY SEATED DIMES WITH MAJOR VARIETIES CIRCULATION STRIKES (1837-1891) digital album
This one is called the the "Key Dates and Rarities Index". I think this is the closest approximation for the higher end of the market. I find this graph interesting because it isn't skewed by whatever nonsense was going on in the late 1980's. And it shows a healthy growth over a long period save for some sideways movement in recent years. I think this graph partially captures the idea that there have been and there will continue to be mega-millionaires and billionaires to compete for the trophy pieces.
LIBERTY SEATED DIMES WITH MAJOR VARIETIES CIRCULATION STRIKES (1837-1891) digital album
The "Key Dates and Rarities" index graph is hardly encouraging. It seems to have hit a peak just before the big recession hit in 2008 and hasn't recovered since. Long running flat indexes are not what investment money wants to see.
They’re fine as long as the future chart shows appreciation from that point. In other words, the key is the future rather than the past.
Smitten with DBLCs.
Is there something out there that is going to spark interest in the field? If the spark isn't there then the future looks grim.
Just who is going to care about "key dates" in the future if few collect the series anymore? 1950-D nickels, anyone?
This borders on silly. NO ONE has a crystal ball. John Jay Pittman used to tell stories about buying PROOF 19th century gold for slightly over spot in the late 30s and early 40s because no one wanted it.
What is in favor now could well be out of favor 10 or 20 years from now. In fact, you can almost guarantee it because it is a value proposition. Once prices in the latest hot area get into the stratosphere, people will look at other bargain sectors.
There was a time when BU rolls of 1950-D Jeffersons were HOT HOT HOT. Hell, there was a time when a LOT of BU rolls were HOT HOT HOT.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
That spike is when the "investment packages" were all in vogue. That was also the same year that stamps started falling off a cliff.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Yes, but what the graph proves is that the coin geeks in 1985 who were also telling you to "buy quality" it only goes UP were horribly wrong. While the past does not fully predict the future, one should at least note that a 30 year plateau in prices PROVES that investment grade coins don't go UP UP UP.
They are not even keeping up with inflation. Try plotting that index against an S&P 500 index fund over the same 30 years and try to NOT be depressed about how much money you lost...or, at least, how much money you didn't make.
Collect coins, stamps, widgets, tulip bulbs because it makes you happy. If you think you are going to get rich, it's no longer hobby but pure price speculation.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
"Soft market conditions"
https://www.yahoo.com/amphtml/finance/news/edited-transcript-clct-earnings-conference-013532699.html
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Well, buy it right and sell it right and there's still a margin.. Thats all I got .
This
+1
How many collectors start collecting by going out and buying 5-figure rarities? Hanson? Almost every collector i know started young with cents or nickels and then when they had more disposable income later in life, they started buying more expensive coins.
Look at the stamp market. It is potentially instructive. As late as 75 years ago, maybe even 50 years ago, stamps kicked coins arse. Now? Kids stopped collecting stamps and there is NO market for even mid-range stuff.
There are only 20,000 $5 Columbians. In some sense, it was the S-VDB of stamps only more scarce. Everyone wanted one to cap their U.S. collection. ONLY 20,000 in a hobby that used to be the biggest hobby on the planet. The price of $5 Columbians has dropped by 50 to 75% in the last 25 years. A nice mint, never hinged set of Zeppelins would set you back $5000 at the peak. You can buy a nice set now for $1000 to $1200.
Complacency will be the end of us. We should at least recognize the threat to the future of the hobby.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
I'm still waiting for Lesher Dollars and Clark Gruber pieces to drop in price so I can buy a few more. No luck so far.
I wonder what happened to all the exuberant promoters in slick numismatic publications talking about how the market wasn't just red hot, it's white hot, with a blue sky breakout just ahead for precious metals and numismatics? All the economic conditions are ripe for it, don't you know...
There's something about the stamp market that bothers me...not the cheap modern stuff of the 20th Century, but the classics. There is no reason for such a decline.
CC
The reason for the decline is that the number of stamp collectors is declining steadily and has been for at least the past 35 years, if not longer. If the collectors aren't there, the demand isn't either. My nephew, now 22, has never met anyone in his age group who collects stamps.
Coin collecting is also declining, rate is not as steep as stamps though. There have been age polls on this forum, most of the people here are 40 or older, in another poll majority are 50 or older, most young people don't care about coins and stamps, look at how many proof sets are being sold, it's declining every year.
It's double jeopardy. It's an old man's hobby. And every time one of those old men passes away, it's one less buyer and one more collection the market needs to absorb. It is disturbing.
Coins could avoid that fate, after all they are money not just paper. But I do think we need to counsel against overconfidence. It's easy to write off weakness in widgets as just common swill. But that common swill is the canary in the coal mine. The Columbian stamps and the Zeps and the 1869 series and all those beautiful classical stamps weren't the FIRST thing to decline...but they inevitably followed the swill down.
And that is one other thing that stamps might share with coins: the arrogance of seasoned collectors. Stamp collectors were horrible to new collectors, constantly telling them that they were collecting "wrong": wrong stamps, wrong storage, etc. But once they ran those newbies away, there was no one left to collect "right".
And, if you think about it, stamps should have been an easier sell to kids. Have you ever seen how excited small children get over stickers and labels? Labels are the NCLT of the stamp market. Stamps are cheap and colorful, especially 1st class definitives. You COULD collect stamps with nothing but a glue stick and access to the family mail. Except all those arrogant old timers won't let the kids just have fun with it because it is "wrong" to glue your stamps into an album - even though those same stamps are worthless in the market anyway. You've got to hinge them or mount them. You've got to soak them off of paper and handle them with tongs. NONSENSE! Let the kids play with junk and some day they will fondly remember all the FUN!
That's why I think FUN NCLT coins and Big Mac tokens and cheap world mix - the exact things that many on this forum make fun of and tell each other NOT to collect - is exactly what we need to encourage people to collect. It's fun. It's affordable. And it will encourage people to be in the hobby until they have enough money to go out and buy a slabbed type coin.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.