Back at work today and shocked.
keets
Posts: 25,351 ✭✭✭✭✭
Believe it or not, when I'm away from work it is easy to not think about it. Actually, once I'm out the door after a day at the store I think about...................................what's going on at home. Admittedly I do still stay involved with my collection and the Hobby when I'm away from work but I don't pay attention to PM's or anything like that. Work requires me to be aware of it, constantly.
One of the first things I do every morning to start things up at the store is enter the current spot price of Gold/Silver/Platinum into a program we use to set our buy prices. This morning was a shocker:
Gold --- $1,216.80.
Silver --- $15.23.
Platinum --- $801.00.
Crazy is the word that comes to mind. I know my boss is a little shook even though he's been through these kind of things for almost 40 years now, going back to before the Hunt Brothers. He has some interesting stories about the up's and down's of the market. My favorite is that during the Hunt's run, he said that you could actually go to one of the local Department Stores(can you remember them??) and buy a Sterling Tea Set, bring it to him and make money by selling it as scrap?? Things were just going up fast, fast, fast.
When will the tide turn now?? I suppose it's anyone's guess. I think the "Horizon" holds Gold in the $1100's, Silver under $15 and Platinum heading for $700, remarkable. The big question might be "Will Palladium ever be priced higher than Gold"??
Al H.
Comments
Right now it's in the best interests of the few individuals forcing these prices down to have them dropping but I doubt even they know what their best interests will be next week or even tomorrow. Once pricing becomes artificial and divorced from supply and demand they become wholly unpredictable.
There is powerful support at $14 for silver so forcing it below this would require huge amounts of paper and force. Many people will buy physical at $14 and some will buy paper.
If the FRB squeezes money by raising interest rates and selling assets (reducing the size of it's own balance sheet), the whole of the American economy will get squeezed hard. Not just coins and bullion.
What the Chinese are doing in their credit markets and economic sphere is important and not too transparent either.
China is weak. It's driving down all commodities, not just PMs.
That said, if gold and silver keep dropping, I expect the widget coin market is going to fall off a cliff.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
By the way, a number of analysts earlier in the year had suggested that gold will flirt with $1000. They may end up being correct.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Too many people seem to have this attitude that the metals will always go up. Of course it will turn eventually, but the question is when. First we need to see a panic sell at the bottom when investors can’t take the pain of their hard assets going down in value and start bailing out. The opposite mentality of people buying at the top, getting overly greedy, and thinking the market will go up forever. It’s going to take a long time for the metals to form a bottom and to set up for a significant up move i.e. 75% or higher. Bull markets in metals generally take years to form, unlike individual equities.
Local guy dumped two monster boxes of silver last week. He told the dealer he bought it when Trump got elected, but since Armageddon didn't happen he was just going to take his loss and write it off.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
If you are a net buyer, you should be happy
Makes sense. Remember when things were getting real nasty with North Korea firing missiles left and right? The metals barely batted an eye.
I think Bit Coin will become more popular and money that went to gold will go to Bits. Crazy.
BTW, I've never been right. I thought I was real smart and sold all my EXXON when the oil spill happened. I told a lady her hundred roll stash of BU 1964 Kennedy's would never be worth anything (before silver took off and she sold them), And...I've been saying gold was going to go to $4000 since 1980!
I want a rhodium coin, cowboy !
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
Dollar at a one year high. Gold at a one year low
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Well, sooner or later you'll be right on gold. LOL. $4000 isn't what it used to be.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Yup. And China in the doldrums pushing down commodity demand.
We're "winning" the "trade war".
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Actually, I'm waiting for some mint to go rhodium or ruthenium or some other "exotic".
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
@Insider2 said: "I've been saying gold was going to go to $4000 since 1980!"
@jmlanzaf said: "Well, sooner or later you'll be right on gold. LOL. $4000 isn't what it used to be.
ACTUALLY NO!
... and I know how it works now, post nonsense and claim it was a joke.
My favorite is that during the Hunt's run, he said that you could actually go to one of the local Department Stores(can you remember them??) and buy a Sterling Tea Set, bring it to him and make money by selling it as scrap?? Things were just going up fast, fast, fast.
I did that, flatware not tea sets, and sold them literally across the street!
it's crackers to slip a rozzer the dropsy in snide
You might not like my jokes, but that doesn't mean they aren't jokes. I've done my best to label it for you. There's an LOL and a winking smile.
Have you had your meds checked lately? You seem more curmudgeonly than usual.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
... and I know how it works now, post nonsense and claim it was a joke.
See you were correct! I finally got something right!
Try telling that to US farmers
There will be no winners if these trade wars trigger a global recession. We are in the 1st inning of the trade war.
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
They price of silver does NOT affect the classic collector coin market. Only ASE's, which doesn't bother me at all.
Strongly disagree. It has always affected the widget market. Expect common date Morgan and Peace $s in grades up to 65 to collapse further.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
please note the quotation marks.
I neither think we are winning nor that there really is a trade war...yet
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Sure the price of silver is VERY meaningful to the rare coin/old coin market.
For example, a couple of years back, I was at a Chicago area show sitting with two senior coin dealers. Nice gentlemen.
One of them says to me "When Joe Black does this big silver deal, he said he would be right over and buy this very rare Conder token from us" and he showed me the piece, which was a half penny token, very nice indeed.
About 20 minutes later, Joe Black came over with a small bank-style zip bag and a big smile on his face. The zip bag was chock full of cash.
Joe Black says "Hey, just got that junk silver deal done, almost five thousand dollars, and I'll bet over $2,000 is pure gain". Joe counts out $495 for the Conder and smiles again, and says "I've always wanted this, and it's better to put the money here than to lose it on the boat", meaning the gambling riverboat.
All three dealers were pleased as punch.
You don't think making money on silver is important to the rare coin/old coin market?
Silver profits can heat up the rare coin/old coin market considerably. Silver profits have been a big factor in the numismatic coin market on many occasions.
You don't suppose the junk silver end of the market is impacted?
Smitten with DBLCs.
Phew. I thought I was in the PM Forum for second there.
Wish I had more cash to buy more gold.
Platinum is almost low enough to get my triple fat gucci links.
If you look at the historical price history on Platinum over the past 15 or 20 years, it has firmly "held the line" at $800 two or three times in that period. Overnight that line was breached slightly.
Some people tell me that after the recent and costly Volkswagen emissions testing scandal, the market for platinum itself has permanently changed. Technically, I don't understand the issues, but that's what I've heard.
They price of silver does NOT affect the classic collector coin market. Only ASE's, which doesn't bother me at all
yeah, and just because soy beans and corn prices are affected isn't a worry to me, I eat pork and beef. I can make another Hobby analogy with Politics --- All facets of the Hobby are entertwined, some easier to discern than others. it is similar to the current Nationalism vs. Globalization battle, the World is so intertwined today that things affect us that we don't think should.
there are a very large number of dealers who don't sell bullion --- BUT --- there are also a lot who do the bulk of their business with bullion or who have had to subsidize the slow coin market by buying/selling bullion. I wish it were not so, but it is.
The market for both palladium and platinum have "evolved". They started using palladium in addition to platinum in catalytic converters. However, electric cars have no emissions and so no catalytic converter, so expect the market to continue to evolve as 40% of the use of platinum is in catalytic converters.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
What little I understood of the statement, I kinda comprehended that other metals in the "platinum family" group were now being used more than in the past.
I strongly disagree with your disagree. Collector coin prices are based on rarity not what they are made of. As an example of what I'm saying... a 1909-O Barber Quarter in AU55 is worth $2500 now...silver could go to 10 cents an OZ. and the 1909-O Quarter would still be worth $2500. It's not the silver in the Quarter that matters …. it's the rarity.
As an example of what I'm saying... a 1909-O Barber Quarter in AU55 is worth $2500 now...silver could go to 10 cents an OZ. and the 1909-O Quarter would still be worth $2500
Jon, I agree with you in principal but the example you gave is not a good one. additionally, you don't seem willing to believe that the overall coin market is more complex than your example. some coins, widgets if you will, are tied to PM's and there values have been high. Gold falling right now is affecting, as an example, the prices of common date $10 Gold coins. looking at the GreySheet every coin in grades of AU58 and lower is priced the same.
why do you think that is??
I should mention that I have been waiting for prices to roll back so I can work on a set of AU $5 Indians and it is getting close.
Would/ Wouldn’t........... got it
Teasing
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
My example is good and so is yours. If the price (value) of a coin is close to bullion to start with...then yes changes in bullion can and will affect those prices. This has been the case with certain gold coin series over the years when bullion goes way up or way down.
But in my example the price of silver would never affect the Quarter mentioned...….UNLESS......silver went so high that there was more that 2500 in silver in the coin.
perhaps it’s time for another Giraffi
Best place to buy !
Bronze Associate member
I'm going to an auction Sunday where all I buy are widgets. Note to self, only buy coins with OUTSTANDING EYE APPEAL.
That coin is NOT a widget. The price of common date $s as well as widgets in general have always moved with the bullion market. It's less about the intrinsic value itself as it is the general trend in the coin market.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Holy Camelopardalis ! That's quite a stretch.
The auto market switched to Palladium because Platinum got too expensive, Palladium being higher makes no sense. I said when the Palladium coin came out, I'd wait 5 years to buy one...I might have made a good call.
Would you settle for Rhodium plated? https://mint.ca/store/coins/1-oz.-pure-silver-coin---nocturnal-by-nature-the-howling-wolf---mintage-7000-2018-prod3140292
No! LOL
Lots of Rhodium and Ruthenium plating. But actual composition....
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Many coin collectors are also precious metal stackers. When precious metal prices drop they feel less rich and less confident in the future. They cut back on their numismatic coin purchases sometimes because of fear of the future and sometimes because they just don't have the money anymore. They were too dependent on rising precious metal prices.
Well, Im buying man....Just buying!
Keep it / Can’t Keep it ..... whatever
Before starting the dance, we should realize that China NEEDS us silly cheap crap buying American dollars.
Imagine if China had even 10% unemployment.
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/unemployment-rate
PM's are in a slide... and, IMO, because the market sees a better place to make profit... Cheers, RickO