PCGSCOINFACTS reporting ALL eBay transactions. Issue? Look at the real examples provided.
SSR
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I have confirmed that all three methods( Buy It Now, Make me an Offer and Auctions) have been picked up and reported in the past week. I do see the occasional reporting over the years by coinfacts, but as of the past several weeks nearly every lot that I have tracked on eBay has been reported on PCGSCOINFACTS regardless of the type of transaction.
**Coinfacts is amazing and I love it, but there is an inherent flaw in using eBay sales. **
eBay transactions are unregulated. My definition of unregulated is simply that a third party ( auction house) isn't facilitating the transaction.
Several problem arises with this unregulated transaction:
1) _**Perhaps the most significant implication of reporting eBay sales on CoinFacts. **_
Consider the case when a piece sells for $7,000 on eBay. With a 7 or 10 day sale, the coin was largely unnoticed until the last minute with several bidders placing last minute bids that jumped the price in the last hour exercising fully their snipping skills. In such a scenario, which happens often enough, there were fewer viewers on this item than say had the price systematically went from $3k-$4k-$5k in the days leading up. Or maybe the seller offered pick up for the coin, which makes it seem on the listing that only pick up is offered or the seller had only sold a few coins and buyers were afraid. Furthermore, Stack's Bowers, Heritage etc have tens of thousands of bidders that are able to see pieces over months which tend to bring more views than on an item that went unnoticed. eBay has very few number of individuals who buy coins at $7,000k level as opposed to $500 range. Collectors looking for such a coin will be aware of this coin should it be offered at HA,SB etc. If we now see this coin that sold for $7k with pictures and everything, and no other piece has went for less than $12k at HA,SB etc. This record does not help the industry. The same scenario can be also be said for the flip side.
The aforementioned scenario is not hypothetical but one that actually happened last week:
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1916-25c-PCGS-MS-62/132590736549?hash=item1edf0614a5:g:5O4AAOSwnc1a2fRa
1916 25c Standing Liberty MS62 PCGS sold at eBay auction for $7,300.
Now. Look at how how another 1916 25c Standing Liberty XF40 PCGS sold at eBay auction for $7,000, a $300 difference!
Both lots are cited on coinfacts. In fact looking at pictures of the ms62, the piece looks much nicer than most 62
2) Inflated price - One that can arise when sellers manipulate prices. Yes this may occur, but what is being discussed is how easy it is to do so on eBay. Likewise I can sell a $50,000 coin on eBay, and have it cancelled then use that as basis to sell the coin as close as possible to $50,000 saying look it sold for $50,000 before.
For example. I'm not claiming this seller bid on his own items, I am just pointing out how such a case looks and how this can negatively or positively impact a coin. A serious level of manipulation can occur
Same item sold 4 times in the past few months by the same seller.
1) https://www.ebay.com/itm/1795-Flowing-Hair-Draped-Bust-Silver-Dollar-1-Coin-PCGS-VF35-scarce/122992307569?hash=item1ca2e9ad71:g:C-oAAOSweD5ZthZF - $13.4k
2) https://www.ebay.com/itm/1795-Flowing-Hair-Draped-Bust-Silver-Dollar-1-Coin-PCGS-VF35-scarce/122939409266?hash=item1c9fc28372:g:C-oAAOSweD5ZthZF - $9k
3) https://www.ebay.com/itm/1795-Flowing-Hair-Draped-Bust-Silver-Dollar-1-Coin-PCGS-VF35-scarce/123034149771?hash=item1ca568238b:g:C-oAAOSweD5ZthZF -$6.8k
4) https://www.ebay.com/itm/1795-Flowing-Hair-Draped-Bust-Silver-Dollar-1-Coin-PCGS-VF35-scarce/123050404613?hash=item1ca6602b05:g:C-oAAOSweD5ZthZF - $6.6k
PCGSCOINFACTS has reported 2 of these. the $9k and the $6.6k.
This is an issue.
3) Sales are cancelled - A much larger percentage and number of transactions are cancelled/void/returned for a variety of reason on eBay than on any other auction platforms. Seller A's coin sold for 50% of what he wanted on a no reserve auction on eBay, and he cancels the transaction. Seller B sells through SB, Heritage etc and the coin sells for 50% of what he wanted on a no reserve auction. Seller B has no say in the matter and the deal goes through.
A coin greatsoutherncoins sold on eBay last month
Same coin is now listed by greatsoutherncoin and is up for no reserve auction ending tomorrow. Will this sell for much less or much more? This too is an issue as coins are not always sold when they are said to be sold.
My views may be wrong, but would love to hear the consensus.
www.paradimecoins.com - Specializing in Top Pop Type PCGS CAC coins. Subscribe To Our NEWPs Mailing List
Comments
Ebay is part of the market, maybe finnicky, but nonetheless part of the market. Any purchase should be vetted out for value, and ebay purchases, however done, is part of the vetting out process. I am glad Coinfacts is reporting ebay transactions.
Best, SH
While CoinFacts is an amazingly awesome tool, I consider it a dashboard to further research.
On the PCGS Auction Prices website there is a box to click that will eliminate all eBay results.
I will sometimes eliminate those results because I'm not up to speed on all the scenarios of eBay sales.
I enjoyed reading your detailed post.
"If I say something in the woods and my wife isn't there to hear it.....am I still wrong?"
My Washington Quarter Registry set...in progress
They apparently did an update on the app recently. One huge problem I see now is when you check variety specific auctions, all the non-variety auctions for that year coin are showing up. Maybe @MarkStephenson may know who can correct this issue.
Here's another flaw.. prices are recorded on CoinFacts for eBay transactions, even if the transactions are cancelled.
How do you feel when a coin at an auction house is bought by the auction house? Is this actually a transaction that should not be reported because the coin was bought by the selling organization and not an actual arms length buyer? Do we even have the ability to know when this happens when we look at the data you provided? None of the services is a perfect data point including the ones you infer are o.k. to include. Here is an example. I could provide 100 more but you will get the point in reading this thread. It happens everywhere.
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/976830/heritage-auction-lost-on-my-bid-but-coin-is-now-back-in-dealers-inventory
Track and Price is excellent on currency, they were doing coins, with ebay included, I don't know why they stopped. Possibly some type of rigorous screening program that includes ebay would be advantageous. Eliminate results from suspicious, possibly insider activity. As for where coins are for grade, the services usually give you the best grade they can considering...
Other than saying that I personally would not spend a large sum of money on a coin without seeing and holding it, I'll leave this one to the experts.
Interesting post, well done.
bob
When I first learned of this from the other thread I thought it was a good idea, but now I realize how the prices can be easily manipulated. I could simply have a friend jack up a price in a straw transaction and that now becomes the listed auction history.
Also we discussed my most recent transaction but I didn't want to post it out of respect for the privacy of the dealer. It's not like HA or Stacks where you see the listing as HA or Stacks. With the eBay price you are linked directly to the auction and you can see who the dealer is as well as the BIN price and what it was actually sold for. I don't think the original price matters and how much the dealer came down is between the dealer and the buyer.
Great transactions with oih82w8, JasonGaming, Moose1913.
That coin doesn't look 62 to me, unless the strike is very weak.
Guys a number #4 has arrived.
Consider this piece that just sold an hour or so ago.
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1916-Walking-Liberty-Half-Dollar-PCSG-MS65-2016-W-1-2-oz-Gold-PCGS-SP70-Piece-/163021847414?_trksid=p2047675.l2557&autorefresh=true&ssPageName=STRK:MEBIDX:IT&nma=true&si=KoPDG%2F0spAH0oB1hUHSNS%2F0Fc4s%3D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc
It is for a 1916 50c ms65 pcgs, but the listing is for also a 1/2 oz gold piece. This one listing went for $2,185. This will be reflected on coinfacts in a day or two at an artificially higher price.
www.paradimecoins.com - Specializing in Top Pop Type PCGS CAC coins. Subscribe To Our NEWPs Mailing List
can't rely on ebay, that's for sure.
carry on,
bob
eBay is it's own animal..... All things considered it would take a lot of manual work to figure out a properly reflected price.
Great transactions with oih82w8, JasonGaming, Moose1913.
I look at data and try to evaluate the quality of the data before using it to make decisions. I imagine others do the same. As long as the sale venue is reported, I see no problem. Second, I wouldn’t generally equate the average quality of coins at a particular grade between a Legend Regency auction and a typical eBay sale. Finally, other sales and auction prices can be manipulated too......
Yes certainly good point to consider the source of data before making a decision. But my point perhaps can also be exemplified by what may generally be assumed if one believes that an eBay coin quality is subpar to a legend regency auction quality ( most of the time this is probably 99% true) But I am just saying that the 1916 25c that went for $7,300 may very well and 99% most likely have brought around $13k at Stack's Bowers or such. And for collectors and dealers to see such a sale as low as an xf40/xf45 price does not bode well for the market.
If a coin has been selling consistently for around $13k for the past 2 decades, and now eBay has a sale for $7,300 which is depicted on coinfacts, such a price the first time since 1996, assuming quality overall is average then this does not bode well for the market. In fact going back to your generally correct point of eBay coins being subpar than most auction houses', then the general case can be made that eBay sales will most likely be less than other auction houses' sale. This can drive prices down for the general consumer( not experts and numismatist at the top of their game) and negatively affect most US coins.
www.paradimecoins.com - Specializing in Top Pop Type PCGS CAC coins. Subscribe To Our NEWPs Mailing List
The coins are what they are. Strong coins often sell for great prices on eBay and ugly coins often go for a huge discount at big auction houses. Yeah, a heretofore-possibly-unknown slug of weak sales numbers doesn't help, but free markets sort themselves out eventually. I think most folks already had a good feel for the price point that weak coins were trading at already.
Whether one agrees with the OP or not, it is refreshing to see one’s opinions backed up with facts and data. Nice job!