Jump grade coins and how to price them

ChrisH821 · February 15, 2018 3:55PM

So I've been wondering about fair market value of coins that jump significantly in price from one grade to the next. For example 1928-S and 1925-S Peace Dollars jump from about $1k in 64 to $20k in 65. If someone has a PQ coin in the jump grade, how does one determine the 'value' of that coin? I would think that in this case it's a sort of grey area, you cant price it 50% between the two values since it is the lower grade (I guess you could but I don't know if it would ever sell). But if it's nicer than more than, say, 75% of the population in that grade what do you do?
As a hypothetical coin, let's say you had a very appealing 25-s Peace in 64+ with CAC, you think it has a shot at 5 but it "just hasn't seen the right set of graders yet". How would you price it to sell, what would you buy it for?

Wabbit2313 · February 15, 2018 4:40PM

Since you are using the 25-S, I have tried every which way and 64 or plus coin imaginable. They will just not give out that grade. The 65's I have seen are clunkers.

You buy them at the grade they are knowing there is very little chance that coin is going to get the money grade. Especially right now!

blitzdude · February 15, 2018 4:54PM

I'd pay $575 for the right 64 (25s) but what do I know, currently only own a 58 lol

TommyType · February 15, 2018 5:07PM

My non-professional guess: Any MS-64 is going to sell a heck-of-a-lot closer to 64 price guide than 65 price guide.

Logic: If someone is shopping for a 64, it's BECAUSE the price is much lower at that grade. So the chance that any random buyer at a 64 price will pay half of a 65 price for a "really nice 64" seems slim, (unless they see it as a potential 65 upgrade).

And as most are conscious of resale value, it's hard to justify a 64 at 2x or 5x or 10x the "price guide" for a 64. They would just see it as inheriting your sales problem!

In short, many would just accept that there is a discontinuity in price (i.e. "non-continuous") step between some grades. A 64 is worth $1k, and a 65 is worth $20k....and very little exists between the two.

291fifth · February 15, 2018 5:08PM

If it doesn't make the grade it doesn't get the premium. There is no reason to be generous in today's coin market.

TennesseeDave · February 15, 2018 5:23PM

I don't understand how a 65 can be worth 20 times that of a 64 because there is very little differences in those grades, and if regraded the 65 could come down to a 64 and the 64 could go up to a 65. I could see a 65 being worth maybe 4 to 5K in this situation.

blitzdude · February 15, 2018 5:27PM

@TennesseeDave said:
I don't understand how a 65 can be worth 20 times that of a 64 because there is very little differences in those grades, and if regraded the 65 could come down to a 64 and the 64 could go up to a 65. I could see a 65 being worth maybe 4 to 5K in this situation.

Yeah and exactly what he said.

lkeigwin · February 15, 2018 5:29PM

For the '25-S there are 2100 total 64's + 65's in the pop report. Fewer than 2% are 65. Auction sales support the huge jump in price between the two grades.

Theoretically, a 65 should be significantly nicer. Upgrade attempts from 64 to 65 will be rarely awarded, as Wabbbit says. PCGS does not like to water down low pop numbers especially when collectors are paying many, many multiples for the higher grade.

To address OP's question, I don't believe anyone will pay anywhere near the middle of 64 and 65 money ($600 and $22000 respectively) no matter how nice the 64. Figure the best 64's out there have already been to PCGS for regrades and crack-outs multiple times because of the huge spread, and failed to achieve 65.

I can see two or three times 64 money for a really high-end 64 (price guide lists $1800 for a 64+).
Lance.

cameonut2011 · February 15, 2018 5:36PM

@ChrisH821 said:
If someone has a PQ coin in the jump grade, how does one determine the 'value' of that coin?

It depends on the quality of the coin. If it is super PQ and genuinely looks as nice as the 65s, I would resubmit until I achieved the desired grade. If you can find a large dealer to let you tag along on his submission, I would try it.

logger7 · February 15, 2018 6:01PM

I would check to see if there has been much of a track record of PQ coins in the lower grade going strong. Most buyers are locked in to the price levels and if it isn't in "the holder" they don't want to pay a premium unless it is cac and there is a record of those going high.

ricko · February 16, 2018 8:51AM

There are some amazing price jumps from one grade to the next. Though I do not sell coins, I do follow some of the pricing on coins that interest me. I find it ridiculous in many cases for one grade point to be worth such a jump.... of course, supply/demand dictate that, and many collectors will pay that to 'fill the hole'. Cheers, RickO

oih82w8 · February 16, 2018 9:02AM

Eye appeal is buy appeal...what does the coin look like?

Unknown · February 16, 2018 9:53AM

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Unknown · February 16, 2018 9:56AM

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oih82w8 · February 16, 2018 9:59AM

What really goes against my grain is when a buyer gives "ordinary" coin prices and then sells it for an "extraordinary" coin due to eye appeal.

bronco2078 · February 16, 2018 10:59AM

@TennesseeDave said:
I don't understand how a 65 can be worth 20 times that of a 64 because there is very little differences in those grades, and if regraded the 65 could come down to a 64 and the 64 could go up to a 65. I could see a 65 being worth maybe 4 to 5K in this situation.

Think of it as a first mover advantage. You send a coin in raw and it comes back 65 its like hitting the lottery. Buying an already made 65 just makes you look like a dummy though. I'd rather own the 64 . The 64 is liquid because the extreme price of the 65 makes the 64 look like a bargain , you would be better off with 5 64's that sell for $1000 in a week than one 65 that fails to sell for $20,000 after a year (unless you own a museum). You can't get the so called book value from anyone that can tie their own shoes without assistance , but by "discounting" your ask towards 64 money you might get some lemming to reach for it.

ChrisH821 · February 16, 2018 11:16AM

@oih82w8 said:
Eye appeal is buy appeal...what does the coin look like?

My hypothetical coin is just that. I do not have one nor am I looking at buying a specific one. If I had one I would be holding onto it though. This is just a topic I've been wondering about since there seems no easy answer.

Very good input here so far!

Coinstartled · February 16, 2018 11:37AM

It has flattened out a bit, but I recall common date Washington quarters jumping 150x in price from NGC ms67 to MS68.

Not a game that I want to play.

BryceM · February 16, 2018 3:21PM

If you don't feel comfortable navigating these waters then you probably just aren't familiar enough with Peace dollars in this grade range. Here's a little secret........ The 25-S is rare in 65, not because the TPGs say so, but because the issue generally looks horrible. In the "old days" if you were assembling a gem set of Peace dollars and you were looking for a 25-S that was like the rest of the coins in your collection, you had a heck of a search ahead of you. Are there ugly coins in 65 holders that shouldn't be there? Yes. Plenty. These generally sell for a huge discount. Really super-nice 25-S coins in 65 holders sell for a premium to whatever pricing guide you're looking at. Even the really nice ones don't hold a candle to relatively common early Philly coins in 66/67 when it comes to eye appeal.

Pricing coins like this requires independent thought and not simple acceptance or reliance on the number or stickers on the holder. Don't expect everyone to agree with your assessments either. It's a part of the Peace dollar market where it's easy to make mistakes. (But, it's a bit easier to cherry pick the really nice ones here too.) When you can look at a 25-S and have an intuitive sense that it's "just another 64+" or wow, something really special, then you'll know how to price them. Before I'd even think about trying to crack or regrade a 64/64+ coin, it would need to be a STRONG 65 in my estimation to be worth trying. Even then, you'd be LUCKY if it made it. The graders have tons of reasons to not call it a gem coin. Those sorts of opportunities are rare.

If you happen upon a very old collection, rattlers that have set ignored for a couple of decades, or a well-kept hoard of nice coins, you have a legitimate chance. The potential reward for everything else is so huge most of them have been tried. If you don't believe it, just look at the percentage of the upper-end coins in older holders hitting the market. Almost everything is in a fairly new holder.

If you're just looking for a decent 25-S or 28-S, just find a good one (better value in 64 than 64+ IMO), pay an appropriate (but not inflated) price, and enjoy it for what it is.

Peace_dollar88 · February 16, 2018 3:38PM

I faced a similar situation, however not as extreme. I was looking for a solid 1928 Philly. Price guide on a MS64 is $950 and Price guide on a MS65 is $3750. It seems that all MS64+ examples sell for closer to 64 money. On a huge price jump like a 25s that could be tricky.

erwindoc · February 16, 2018 6:48PM

Great post! Similar issue in the Washington series, as previously mentioned on coins that go from MS67 to MS68!

blitzdude · February 16, 2018 6:58PM

Then there's always the risk of just I dropped $20K on a coin and suddenly a bag of 65-66's is discovered. lol

Jump grade coins and how to price them

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