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Is Fred McGriff a HOFer?

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    "The Hall-Of-Fame is for the absolute best players, not the very good players"

    you could not be more wrong.

    The absolute best are folks like Williams, Ruth, Mays, Mantle, Gherig Musial. etc. very very few measure up to that caliber of player.

    how about we take out Jim Bunning, Harry Hooper, Maz, george kell, tony lazeri, hal newhouser and about 50 others. they cant hold Ted Williams dirty jockstrap.

    it's the hall of fame, not the hall of Gods. there are different tiers of players in the Hall and in some respect they all belong.

    Pete Rose belongs in the Hall of Fame, so does shoeless joe jackson and quite a few other folks who arent quite as God like.
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    TabeTabe Posts: 5,958 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Back to Baines I guess being 28th all time in RBI's means nothing to some people.


    I suppose having 2800+ hits means nothing as well.


    Who cares that he never led the league in anything.


    CONSISTENCY is what he was all about.

    As for being a crappy outfielder I disagree their too.

    Early on he was a pretty decent one.


    Steve >>


    Check his fielding stats on baseballreference.com - he was below average.

    2866 hits in 2830 games. In other words, Baines was good for about 150 hits in a typical 150 game season. Big deal.

    1600+ RBI is great. In 18 seasons. But in 22? He got those RBI totals with seasons of 49, 41 (strike), 72, 65, 76, 78, 54 (strike), 63, 67, and 57. Then he hung around a few more years trying to reach 3000 hits. Baines' average full season was about 86 RBI. Is that REALLY all that great? No.

    When you add in that fact that offense was ALL HE DID, being a consistent pretty good hitter just isn't enough.

    Consider this: Travis Fryman put up better numbers than Baines (albeit in 9 fewer seasons) while playing Gold Glove defense at a premium position. Nobody's arguing for him to be in the HOF.

    Consistency is wonderful. Every team needs guys that are consistent. But the HOF should only be for guys that are GREAT. And Baines wasn't.

    Tabe
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    TabeTabe Posts: 5,958 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I would say that McGriff was no different that other baseball players of the steroid era... His stats show the typical increase to the late twenties and declines through the thirties... however, he suddenly gets a 4 year spike starting at Age 35, coincidentally 1999 when roids were spiking in baseball...

    Homerun totals by age.
    Age 27 31
    Age 28 35
    Age 29 37
    Age 30 34
    Age 31 27
    Age 32 28
    Age 33 22
    Age 34 19

    Age 35 32
    Age 36 27
    Age 37 31
    Age 38 30 >>


    Shhhh....it's perfectly normal at ages 35-38 to suddenly have four consecutive HR seasons that are better - by a long way - than the four that came before.

    Tabe
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    WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,726 ✭✭✭
    LoL you do realize that your math adds up to 24 extra home runs over a 4 yr period, hardly proof

    that he was roided. He went from 96 to 120 some jump.


    shhhhhhhh lets not let anyone see the facts.


    Steve
    Good for you.
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    WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,726 ✭✭✭
    Check his fielding stats on baseballreference.com - he was below average.



    Actually you should check as he was above average.


    Steve
    Good for you.
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    does anyone with half a brain cell actually think that McGriff used steroids?

    baseball reference comparison:

    Willie McCovey (887) *
    Willie Stargell (875) *
    Jeff Bagwell (865)
    Frank Thomas (861)
    Carlos Delgado (857)
    Billy Williams (851) *
    Gary Sheffield (850)
    Andres Galarraga (850)
    Jim Thome (835)
    Eddie Mathews (827) *
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    TabeTabe Posts: 5,958 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Check his fielding stats on baseballreference.com - he was below average.



    Actually you should check as he was above average.


    Steve >>


    You are talking about Baines, right? League average fielding % combined with below-average range = below average fielder.

    Tabe
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    TabeTabe Posts: 5,958 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>LoL you do realize that your math adds up to 24 extra home runs over a 4 yr period, hardly proof

    that he was roided. He went from 96 to 120 some jump.


    shhhhhhhh lets not let anyone see the facts.


    Steve >>


    A 25% jump during his over-the-hill years? Yeah, that's a big jump.

    Tabe
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    ndleondleo Posts: 4,111 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Wasn't Canseco on the same Tampa team as McGriff? I guess we should start the six degrees of Jose Canseco and roids.
    Mike
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    << <i>"The Hall-Of-Fame is for the absolute best players, not the very good players"

    you could not be more wrong.

    The absolute best are folks like Williams, Ruth, Mays, Mantle, Gherig Musial. etc. very very few measure up to that caliber of player.

    how about we take out Jim Bunning, Harry Hooper, Maz, george kell, tony lazeri, hal newhouser and about 50 others. they cant hold Ted Williams dirty jockstrap.

    it's the hall of fame, not the hall of Gods. there are different tiers of players in the Hall and in some respect they all belong.

    Pete Rose belongs in the Hall of Fame, so does shoeless joe jackson and quite a few other folks who arent quite as God like. >>



    Looking back at my quote, the word absolute should not have been there. Meant to say the best players.
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    << <i>

    << <i>He got very few MVP Votes >>



    MVP votes???????? Really can you come up with a more subjective measurement? Your saying if a guy was the 5th best player in the league for 15 consecutive years he wouldn't be a HOFer? >>



    MVP votes as in how many votes someone gets each year he plays. Harold Baines got very few MVP votes during his career. He was not 5th for 15 consecutive years( or even close). If a player was 5th in MVP voting for 15 consecutive years he probably would have a very good chance at making the hall.
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    WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,726 ✭✭✭
    metsfan it should be for the Ruths and Cobbs of the baseball world, but once the veterans committee watered it down

    the writers did as well. So now we have guys like (enter name here) in.

    If it was only for guys like Ruth, Cobb, Wagner etc how many would actually be in? 60?


    Some guys get penalized (unfairly) IMO for playing what some consider past their prime.

    While a few get a pass because a career was cut short.

    One should remember that almost 10,000 men have played the game and only a handful

    have been inducted. Are some in not really worthy? You betcha. Are some outside looking in? uh huh.


    Steve
    Good for you.
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    << <i>metsfan it should be for the Ruths and Cobbs of the baseball world, but once the veterans committee watered it down

    the writers did as well. So now we have guys like (enter name here) in.

    If it was only for guys like Ruth, Cobb, Wagner etc how many would actually be in? 60?


    Some guys get penalized (unfairly) IMO for playing what some consider past their prime.

    While a few get a pass because a career was cut short.

    One should remember that almost 10,000 men have played the game and only a handful

    have been inducted. Are some in not really worthy? You betcha. Are some outside looking in? uh huh.


    Steve >>



    Winpitcher
    I agree the veterans committee has watered it down. There will always be debates about who's in, and who should be in. Thats what makes looking at different players, their stats,etc. fun!
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    TabeTabe Posts: 5,958 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Wasn't Canseco on the same Tampa team as McGriff? I guess we should start the six degrees of Jose Canseco and roids. >>


    Yes. He joined the Devil Rays in 1999 - the same year that McGriff's past-his-prime resurgence began.

    Tabe
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    << <i>LoL you do realize that your math adds up to 24 extra home runs over a 4 yr period, hardly proof

    Steve >>



    I'm a statistician by trade. And it's not so much the 4-year comparison that is important as much as the trend.

    Age 29 37
    Age 30 34 10% decrease
    Age 31 27 20% decrease
    Age 32 28 Steady
    Age 33 22 20% decrease
    Age 34 19 14% decrease

    Age 35 32 70% increase
    Age 36 27 15% decrease
    Age 37 31 15% increase
    Age 38 30 steady
    Fell off the face of the earth.

    This is a player whom averaged, with fair consistency, a 12% decline in skills for 5 consecutive years moving through his early to mid 30s... and then with remarkability had a 70% increase in power at Age 35 that maintained through 38 before he vanished.

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    fiveninerfiveniner Posts: 4,111 ✭✭✭
    A real good player however no.
    Tony(AN ANGEL WATCHES OVER ME)
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    << <i>

    << <i>LoL you do realize that your math adds up to 24 extra home runs over a 4 yr period, hardly proof

    Steve >>



    I'm a statistician by trade. And it's not so much the 4-year comparison that is important as much as the trend.

    Age 29 37
    Age 30 34 10% decrease
    Age 31 27 20% decrease
    Age 32 28 Steady
    Age 33 22 20% decrease
    Age 34 19 14% decrease

    Age 35 32 70% increase
    Age 36 27 15% decrease
    Age 37 31 15% increase
    Age 38 30 steady
    Fell off the face of the earth.

    This is a player whom averaged, with fair consistency, a 12% decline in skills for 5 consecutive years moving through his early to mid 30s... and then with remarkability had a 70% increase in power at Age 35 that maintained through 38 before he vanished. >>



    That year that McGriff had at 35 also looks more suspect when you see Jose Canseco played his only year for the Rays( as others have said). His slugging average had been below .500 for a few years and now was in the .550 range. His batting average and ops also went up. Really makes you wonder who's clean? I'm sure if we asked Jose Canseco he would tell us if McGriff was clean.
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    DeutscherGeistDeutscherGeist Posts: 2,990 ✭✭✭✭

    I would not be surprised that given some time, McGriff does eventually get voted in.

    What is his best rookie card while we are having this discussion. Is it the 1986 Donruss or some glossy version of Topps?

    "So many of our DREAMS at first seem impossible, then they seem improbable, and then, when we SUMMON THE WILL they soon become INEVITABLE "- Christopher Reeve

    BST: Tennessebanker, Downtown1974, LarkinCollector, nendee
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    JoeBanzaiJoeBanzai Posts: 11,419 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Here's a perfect example of how the juicers have screwed up baseball. Assuming Fred was clean, he would have been regarded a much better player during his time. His stats would (most likely) have been better than many guys who cheated and some of whom WILL eventually get in.

    That to me is just sad.

    I too disagree with the MVP vote argument as a lot of guys got (his?) votes while being cheaters.

    Fred and Gil both get my vote.

    2013,14 and 15 Certificate Award Winner Harmon Killebrew Master Set and Master Topps Set
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    OdessafileOdessafile Posts: 440 ✭✭✭
    edited February 3, 2018 9:12AM

    IF it werent for the strike year Fred would have hit those 7 homers to reach 500 and in like flynn.... You dont have to hit 40 or drive in 100 rbi every year.....Mantle only exceeded 100 rbi 4 times.... I dont think Miguel Cabrera has failed to drive in 100 rbi's for four years in his entire career...BTW Fred exceeded 100 RBI in a season 8 times. Moreover, he hit for a .284 career average exceptional for a power hitter....he is no Dave Kingman......He was clean, a gentleman and is deserving of the HOF IMO ...With the lineup of pill popping, needle injecting liars at the doorstep ...Bonds, Arod, Sosa, Mcgwire and Clemens etc......Fred is going to get in. He did it right and was a "CLEAN" production machine.

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    AaronfromKyAaronfromKy Posts: 114 ✭✭
    edited February 2, 2018 7:23PM

    I think he not being in the HOF is a crime(dog)! How can Chipper Jones be a 1st ballot HOFer but he still can't get elected? As far as Jones winning MVP one year means nothing to me.

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    DeutscherGeistDeutscherGeist Posts: 2,990 ✭✭✭✭

    I have not thought about the strike affecting McGriff's career, but that's a good point. He had missed opportunities for that shortened season. I think the same can be said of David Cone not reaching the magic number of 200 wins. Although winning the CY Young Award in 1994, he got 16 wins and might have gotten 6 more had the season been a full one as he was at the top of his game in terms of durability and precision.

    In any case, one has to at least put McGriff's career in perspective and acknowledge the strike. Every career is unique and has its nuances.

    "So many of our DREAMS at first seem impossible, then they seem improbable, and then, when we SUMMON THE WILL they soon become INEVITABLE "- Christopher Reeve

    BST: Tennessebanker, Downtown1974, LarkinCollector, nendee
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    A few other players can make cases about the strike(s) hurting their Hall of Fame chances by not reaching magic numbers.

    Harold Baines finished with 2866 hits. He missed 123 possible games from the 1981 and 1994 strikes as well as the 1995 shortened seasons.

    Omar VIzquel finished with 2877 hits. He missed 67 games from the strike in 1994 and the late start in 1995.

    Tommy John finished with 288 wins. He only had 20 starts and 9 wins during the 1981 strike shortened season for the World Series bound Yankees. In the two years prior (1979 and 1980), he won 21 and 22 games for the Yankees as a result of starting 36 and 37 games so winning 12 more was possible.

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    fiveninerfiveniner Posts: 4,111 ✭✭✭

    Yes

    Tony(AN ANGEL WATCHES OVER ME)
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    SDSportsFanSDSportsFan Posts: 5,103 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @SDSportsFan said:
    Yes, he should be in the HOF.

    I'd put him no higher than fourth on the most-deserving list though, after Bert Blyleven, Andre Dawson and Tim Raines.

    Steve

    The above is my post from 27 Nov 2009 (third post in the thread).

    I would say it's now McGriff's turn.

    Steve

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    TabeTabe Posts: 5,958 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @AaronfromKy said:
    I think he not being in the HOF is a crime(dog)! How can Chipper Jones be a 1st ballot HOFer but he still can't get elected? As far as Jones winning MVP one year means nothing to me.

    One guy played 3B, the other played 1B. One guy won an MVP, the other once finished fourth. One guy won a batting title, the other guy never came close.

    An MVP "means nothing"? That makes no sense.

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    DeutscherGeistDeutscherGeist Posts: 2,990 ✭✭✭✭

    Its nice to see some of the veteran board posters: Tabe, SDSportsFan, Fiveniner, .....

    "So many of our DREAMS at first seem impossible, then they seem improbable, and then, when we SUMMON THE WILL they soon become INEVITABLE "- Christopher Reeve

    BST: Tennessebanker, Downtown1974, LarkinCollector, nendee
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    AaronfromKyAaronfromKy Posts: 114 ✭✭
    edited February 4, 2018 3:41PM

    @Tabe said:

    @AaronfromKy said:
    I think he not being in the HOF is a crime(dog)! How can Chipper Jones be a 1st ballot HOFer but he still can't get elected? As far as Jones winning MVP one year means nothing to me.

    One guy played 3B, the other played 1B. One guy won an MVP, the other once finished fourth. One guy won a batting title, the other guy never came close.

    An MVP "means nothing"? That makes no sense.

    I'm not saying that Chipper doesn't deserve to be a 1st ballot HOFer. I'm saying that is the only thing really separating Chipper(.303/468/1623) and McGriff(.284/493/1550) offensively. I don't think either one of them won a gold glove. Both played 19yrs. However, if Chipper was good enough to be a 1st ballot HOFer then McGriff deserves to get in eventually. Also, if an MVP means so much then Larry Walker, Steve Garvey, and Dale Murphy needs to be in the HOF.

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    DeutscherGeistDeutscherGeist Posts: 2,990 ✭✭✭✭

    With all due respect, AaronfromKy, the Batting AVG/HR/RBI may be interesting to use for comparison, but one should not overlook OPS+ which takes into account not only the batting average, but also the walks. Getting on base is the goal of the hitter, so if they walk, it is a good thing, but not reflected in the batting average.

    Here is a comparison of lifetime OPS+ from different players:

    Chipper Jones 141
    Dale Murphy 121
    Jorge posada 121
    Fred McGriff 134
    S. Garvey 117
    F. Thomas 156
    J. Olerud 129
    Will Clark 137
    D. Mattingly 127
    L. Walker 141
    M. McGwire 163
    Wade Boggs 131

    Chipper Jones truly belongs in the HOF as a third baseman. McGriff is deserving as well, but it may be a few years before he is voted in. I know the arguments against him such as no MVP, never considered the best player in baseball, ...... Don Mattingly was considered the best player in baseball at one time, got an MVP, and led or co-led the league in OPS+ twice (which is a very rare feat). That did not help him get even over 28% of the HOF votes.

    McGriff was consistent for a long time and was carrying his team for a significant stretch. He did not hit over 40 home runs in a season, but he did lead the league twice and came close other times in seasonal home run totals. I think the one thing that would him look better is having 7 more home runs to bring his total up to 500. He would have gotten that if it weren't for the strike.

    As I was doing this research, I realize that Dale Murphy should also be enshrined. He may get his day in the distant future.

    "So many of our DREAMS at first seem impossible, then they seem improbable, and then, when we SUMMON THE WILL they soon become INEVITABLE "- Christopher Reeve

    BST: Tennessebanker, Downtown1974, LarkinCollector, nendee
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    TabeTabe Posts: 5,958 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @AaronfromKy said:

    I'm not saying that Chipper doesn't deserve to be a 1st ballot HOFer. I'm saying that is the only thing really separating Chipper(.303/468/1623) and McGriff(.284/493/1550) offensively. I don't think either one of them won a gold glove. Both played 19yrs. However, if Chipper was good enough to be a 1st ballot HOFer then McGriff deserves to get in eventually. Also, if an MVP means so much then Larry Walker, Steve Garvey, and Dale Murphy needs to be in the HOF.

    MVPs aren't to be viewed in a vacuum. They help a guy's case but don't MAKE the guy's case.

    Chipper hit 20 points higher, had a higher OPS+ and had much-higher peak seasons - all while playing a far more valuable defensive position. McGriff had a really nice career. I just don't think he reached a high enough peak to get in.

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    AaronfromKyAaronfromKy Posts: 114 ✭✭
    edited February 7, 2018 10:32AM

    I think I’m sending the wrong message. Chipper is a 1st ballot HOFer. I’m not making a case against Chipper, I’m trying to make a case for McGriff. And other than the MVP, his stats are comparable to a 1st ballot HOFer. Also, he played in the 90’s and is not connected to STD’s. That has to stand for something.

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    AllenAllen Posts: 7,165 ✭✭✭
    edited February 8, 2018 7:05AM

    @AaronfromKy said:
    I think I’m sending the wrong message. Chipper is a 1st ballot HOFer. I’m not making a case against Chipper, I’m trying to make a case for McGriff. And other than the MVP, his stats are comparable to a 1st ballot HOFer. Also, he played in the 90’s and is not connected to STD’s. That has to stand for something.

    Glad to know he never contracted an STD in the 90’s.

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    tbonewillytbonewilly Posts: 424 ✭✭✭

    @Allen said:

    @AaronfromKy said:
    I think I’m sending the wrong message. Chipper is a 1st ballot HOFer. I’m not making a case against Chipper, I’m trying to make a case for McGriff. And other than the MVP, his stats are comparable to a 1st ballot HOFer. Also, he played in the 90’s and is not connected to STD’s. That has to stand for something.

    Glad to know he never contracted an STD in the 90’s.

    Yes, or his nickname would have been Crime Dog McDrip! :D

    Ken - Volunteered to work in Florida Keys, now freezing in Ohio
    Work in progress - Unopened Racks/Cello/Wax with star power for Baseball, Football and Basketball
    Collecting unopened 80's boxes and graded packs
    I may be hoarding too much 80's junk wax but I like it!
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    estangestang Posts: 1,297 ✭✭✭

    I like him a lot, but I will say "no".

    If he would have led more WS championships for the Braves, maybe. He led the league in no significant categories and has no gold gloves.

    I also believe he will get in via the Veterans Committee. It's just going to take a while.

    Enjoy your collection!
    Erik
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    TabeTabe Posts: 5,958 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @estang said:
    He led the league in no significant categories

    Two-time home run champion.

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    @Allen said:

    @AaronfromKy said:
    I think I’m sending the wrong message. Chipper is a 1st ballot HOFer. I’m not making a case against Chipper, I’m trying to make a case for McGriff. And other than the MVP, his stats are comparable to a 1st ballot HOFer. Also, he played in the 90’s and is not connected to STD’s. That has to stand for something.

    Glad to know he never contracted an STD in the 90’s.

    HA! What the hell was I thinking? That looks ridiculous. Lol. I’m blaming it auto correct. Lol

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    DeutscherGeistDeutscherGeist Posts: 2,990 ✭✭✭✭

    estang,

    Whether he makes it by a Re-labeled Veterans Committee or Baseball Writer's does not matter. HOF is the HOF. Not every HOF member can be a Babe Ruth. I also believe he will get in via Veterans Committee. The same can be said of Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy, and David Cone (I think at least one of them will get voted in by that same path some day).

    "So many of our DREAMS at first seem impossible, then they seem improbable, and then, when we SUMMON THE WILL they soon become INEVITABLE "- Christopher Reeve

    BST: Tennessebanker, Downtown1974, LarkinCollector, nendee
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    BLUEJAYWAYBLUEJAYWAY Posts: 8,279 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I remember his career well. Very consistent stats and had a good image. Liked by many, and had a faithful following in the 1990's. I agree those -7 Hrs to reach 500 hurt him in voters minds. But he would still be the same player with or without those 7 Hrs.

    Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
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