All this babbling about High Grade Gold meaning the "market" is strong is silly.
keets
Posts: 25,351 ✭✭✭✭✭
Really, it is.
If you walk the floor at shows, large-medium-small, you should be seeing a lot of the same thing in dealer cases. For the sake of discussion, let's focus on PCGS/NGC graded coins in Mint State grades from MS60-MS65, stuff like Morgan/Peace Dollars, Indian and Lincoln Cents, Liberty and Buffalo Nickels, Mercury Dimes and Walkers, Barber Coinage, common/scarce date Liberty and Indian Gold, $20 Saints, Bust Half-Dollars and 19th Century Type. Oh yeah, don't forget Classic Commems.
Tell how that sort of thing is selling, then maybe we can get a more wholesome view of things. And did I mention Morgan Dollars??? If there was a single coin to use to gauge the overall health of the US coin market that would be it.
Whatever you do, please don't tell me things are looking up because some hedge fund guy just dropped 1/4K on a rare 18th Century $10 Gold Coin. That's just silly and sounds like someone wanting to promote something.
Al H.
Comments
Agreed
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
Amen!
mbogoman
https://pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/classic-issues-colonials-through-1964/zambezi-collection-trade-dollars/7345Asesabi Lutho
I can't say about common stuff in the areas you list in your post above, but high quality collector coins - those that are all there for the grade, no problems, and have strong eye appeal, are selling for strong prices at FUN - I have seen several uber coins priced at way over PCGS price guide walk off with collectors - with and without CAC stickers. Common stuff that are C and D coins for the grade, I suspect are going to go a prices worthy of common stuff - discounts off of guide, but I don't buy those coins (I hope).
Eye appealing bust halves are going for strong prices as usual, guide and above, as they always do. I saw a whole bunch (6 if I recall right) of MS 19th century type coins with CAC stickers and stunning eye appeal walk off with a collector at way over guide at one table.
Note that a 'strong market' does not necessarily equate with 'prices going up'. Strong market means strong active trading IMO, and that is certainly happening on the bourse at FUN.
Best, SH
Go on eBay and look at the prices of MS66/67 Merc dimes, MS 64/65 Morgan dollars, UNC Buffs etc. and you pretty much see "bargains" galore. I don't see any strengthening of that side of the market.
The mid range ($1k to $10k) is much firmer than last spring. The $100k+ market is much stronger than last year.
Grant me those as factoids and the conclusion is pretty simple:
There is a THIN market of well-heeled collectors. There are not enough collectors to sustain the prices of common material. There are enough wealthier people to push the price on scarcer material.
It is instructive to look at the stamp market over the last 20 years. [Another "old man's" hobby, much older than coins.] Prices on premium material have remained strong while the middle has stagnated and the bottom has dropped out. Coins are not at that point as there are new coin collectors and very few new stamp collectors. But an aging collector base creates two price deflation problems: fewer buyers and more sellers as collections and estates hit the market. This trend gutted the stamp market.
Coins are healthier, but we need to be careful with the rosy goggles. In a truly robust, growing hobby there would continue to be strong demand for MS64/65 Morgans as new collectors moved to complete their new sets. It's not like they are minting more Morgans (well, except in China). You can tell me (and will) that common material is common and who cares that the price isn't going up. But what a drop in the price of common material indicates, as it has with stamps, is a shrinking collector base.
That shrinking collector base could be series specific - maybe people just don't want to collect Morgan by date/MM anymore. It could also be more generic, and it bodes watching along with things like ANA membership totals.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
I would also point out that people are very short-sighted about the overall market, even dealers. They only watch the things they watch, and if there segment is looking good they assume the entire market is looking good.
I've gone to a local coin show here for 20 years. It used to be sold out, crowded for two days. It is now half empty with thin crowds. I've also gone to the regional stamp show for 20 years. It also used to be sold out and crowded for 4 days. It is now a virtual ghost town. As I walked the floor last year, I mentioned to some dealer friends how empty the place was, some said "No, it's been very busy. Great show! But all that meant is that THEY had sold a lot.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
yesterday an 1855 liberty quarter eagle PCGS 65 CAC went for about $20,000. Incredibly strong for a coin with a mintage of 235,480. There are 6 PCGS coins graded 65 and one graded higher at 66. The price guide is $10,000. It is an original coin that is CAC. Coins like this are very strong---its not just 18th cent gold that is selling for 6 figures. Many more examples like this are out there. For coins that are all there, the market is strong.
Parts of the market seem strong to me across many price ranges:
Common material is suffering and may continue to suffer. I think the Internet has changed collecting to where more people are shifting to rare, beautiful items.
As for classic commems, I'm not sure the single time when there was a huge promotion is a good indication of normal market conditions. Aside from the promotions of selling common coins as rare, were classic commems ever strong?
Mintage of 235,000 is irrelevant. Pop 6/1 is the issue. And what's the pop 65+CAC? CAC tends to push the price closer to the next grade. The price guide for a 66 is $27,500. That coin, IMHO, sold at guide not above guide.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
The wealthy are getting (and feeling) more wealthy. The trophy hunt for high end collectibles is heating up.
For those who are waiting for the "trickle" ... don't hold your breath. The money is going to the top and staying there.
1% of the coin market is red hot while the rest continues to slowly decline as the market ages.
I think the ones that remain of the "rest" are moving away from traditional coins going into bullion and coins like the Queen's Beasts:
This is interesting... it would appear we have a great market for high end coins - strong demand, strong prices being paid..... and a flat to declining market in the mid to lower ranges. I believe that sums up the information put forth above. I will wait a bit on this .... not doubting anyone, just want to see if this holds.. Cheers, RickO
In general with some exceptions:
It seems the high end material is doing well due to the strong economy/asset markets but it takes a bullion price breakout to get the rest of the market kickstarted.
I will repeat that whenever I bid on anything, lots of other people do as well. Prices might be soft, but it's not me or my 15-18 competitors that are causing it. I will also say again that when I buy a nice clean mid-grade bust half at $300-$500, it's going into a set where I bought quite a few at $50. Add in gradeflation and I don't know where we are. I'd like to buy 100 busties in VG, but can't find accurately graded and undamaged ones at that level either.
For coins that are all there, the market is strong.
this is simply not true.
Interesting comment ... please expand on it. As someone who works at a shop your insight would be very valuable.
I have coins in my collection which are "all there" and the prices aren't encouraging, stagnant or falling.
it is what my assertion is all about and what others have said, the tippy top is doing good but that shouldn't be used as a sign of overall market strength.
You have many types of coin buyers; the rich out of sight that have dealers find their coins through a want list, etc.. People who enjoy travelling and looking at coins in cases with a certain amount of money to spend on coins that catch their eyes. Flippers and speculators. Dealers looking for good deals on specific coins. A small percentage of the coins fetch high prices with lots of competition. At most shows you have a lot of slow moving inventory looking for a customer.
Interesting choice of words in the thread title "headline". Have you ever worked in the newspaper business
How about advertising?
I tend to agree with you though on your points, but that title sure got me to want to open the thread.
I had considered "blathering" but settled on babbling instead.
It appears that CRO has no problem selling coins that are all there at various price points. What's John's secret?
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
It appears that CRO has no problem selling coins that are all there at various price points. What's John's secret?
you guys either suffer reading comprehension or like to appear difficult disguised as smart.
gazes said that "For coins that are all there, the market is strong" and I simply stated that not to be true. it is often true as with the upper tier stuff and some other segments of the Hobby, but not as a blanket assessment of the market overall.
I have to stop posting, I think you guys are messing with me cause you can't be so hard pressed to understand this concept.
Marketing, customer communications and an established client list that makes others want to be like them. He creates trends not follows them and has limited supply.
The number of specialist dealers who can cultivate a market/buyer pool and charge above standard market rates is few and far between. John is near the top of that list and not indicative of the overall market
11.5$ Southern Dollars, The little “Big Easy” set
The market seems flat to me. However, the Barber Halves on Ebay are still listed at prices 50-100% higher than could be turned around and resold on Ebay at a true auction. Go figure? I guess a lot of folks are extremely, blindly optimistic.
I think it's the hats
I wonder if part of the reason for the decline in the prices in common MS coins is because the market has been flooded. Just looking at the PCGS pops of common date Morgan dollars is staggering. Some examples in MS63/64/65 the pops are:
79 S 22K/40K/25K
80 S 34/60/37
81 S 68/103/54
84 O 86/74/25
85 O 72/74/20
87 P 55/64/17
The list goes on- sure some of the pop volume may be due to re-submissions and mass volume dealer/submitters, but at what point are these coins not really collectable at these grades anymore? If every collector that wants one, has one, it is logical the supply will exceed the demand, the market is saturated and the price dives.
I agree with Al. Morgans are,by far, the best indicator of the health of numismatics. They have the largest collector base by far.
Just my eversohumble opinion.
Cheers
Bob
I don't always agree with the OP, but this time, yes.
It strikes me that all this "happy talk" is pretty well-organized, not spontaneous.
I am feeling much more wealthy. Mostly because of major gains in my investment accounts over the last year or so.
Will allocate more to coin purchases this year.
“In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle, stand like a rock." - Thomas Jefferson
My digital cameo album 1950-64 Cameos - take a look!
I'm not a Morgan Dollar guy, but I can say that Early Dollars have completely turned around in the last month. Since mid-December, I've sold two AU 1795 Flowing Hair Dollars, A condition census 1800 Wide Date, a condition census 1803 Small 3, an XF 1794, and a handful of F-VF pieces. All but one sale was to a collector.
Overall, it seems like the collecting public has decided to start buying again.
What is now proved was once only imagined. - William Blake
He's probably not selling the chit out of 2017 ASEs PCGS ms70 that are all there. An ms64 1884-O Morgan can be all there for the grade, but it's not likely to sell for strong money if it sells at all.
Mostly the coins and a loyal base
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
John has done a masterful job of developing a client base, and he consistently handles aesthetically appealing coins. He comes to the business with the perspective of a collector, and I think that it makes him one of the better dealers around.
What is now proved was once only imagined. - William Blake
"The market" for coins is like "the weather" for the US.
It's been Warm lately in Southern California, and rare early gold is hot.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Agree. Look at the prices for common date Mercs in 65 or 66 FB that are ALL THERE. They are not appreciating. I won't even mention classic commems, even in 66 or 67.
The situation is much more complex than simple statements of globally "strong" or "weak". There are pockets of tremendous strength and broad areas of weakness.
Try to wholesale/retail common date 65 Morgans and see what happens to your "investment" from a few years back. 63 Morgans aren't even worth submitting, even with bulk submission privileges.
Common date circ Peace $s are so low they may soon be trading as 90% bullion.
64 $20 Libs are trading for pretty much what 2018 Gold Eagles will retail at. Look at the premium (or lack thereof) for 63/64 Saints. Proof ASEs have crashed.
For anyone who cares about the market direction, it would be a tremendous mistake to look at any one segment and declare all is well, especially the 5-figure segment. And what the weak areas indicate about the future of the market should be a cause for concern.
Again, I suggest people look at the stamp market over the last 20 years. There was a time when 1930s mint sheets sold for well over face value. Now, they are 50% of FACE VALUE!!! That's right, we lick them and stick them. But, you know what, Inverted Jennys still sell for over $1 million. And the penny magenta from British Guiana sold for over $9 million in 2014. On the other hand, Zeppelin sets that used to sell for $5000 are at $1000.
Look at prices on some of the U.S. proof and mint sets. I almost dumped a bunch of 2005 proof sets into a Coinstar last week. Greysheet bid is $3.75, face value is $2.91. You can't buy them cheaply enough to make them worth the bother. 1980 Mint Sets are $5.25 bid but there's $4.82 face value!!! Those might as well go in the Coinstar. I have to buy those at LESS THAN FACE VALUE to be worth acquiring! Even to go in the Coinstar, I have to cut them out of the cellophane. They are the equivalent of the stamp mint sheets.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
@keets I don't think the overall market is healthy, but I do maintain that dealers who decide to deal in "all there" coins appear to be doing fine. Angel Dees, Eagle Eye, CRO, etc appear to have eager buyers and thus this SEGMENT of the market is healthy. I was simply agreeing with @spacehayduke and @Gazes of whom you disagreed.
If gold and silver pop again and the economy fully rebounds, then this might save the generic coin market.
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
"Overall"? You're looking at ONLY Early Dollars. That data doesn't even extrapolate to the rest of the dollar series much less other market segments.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Yes, but this does not indicate a strong and growing collector base. New collectors would still need or want one. The lack of demand indicates there are FEWER collectors than the supply. Ultimately, this will infect the whole market.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
They're two separate statements. One was about a specific segment of the market, the second paragraph was a statement about the market overall, based upon my sale of a wide variety of other items at FUN, and discussions with other dealers.
Several major dealers that I do business with claimed that this FUN was the best show of the past five years.
Nice tone, BTW, you seem like a real gem.
What is now proved was once only imagined. - William Blake
How do you get "tone" from that? I didn't even add emoticoms.
Oddly, you had far more "tone" than me. I am, unfortunately, heavily circulated and no longer qualify as "gem".
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
With regard to very common date Morgans, I will point out that some collectors (looking at you, AB) have WAY more than one per date/MM.
I agree that there are more Morgan collectors than other series, but a 10% drop in collector base there means 100's of thousands of coins extra in the market, that may be why that part of the market is soft.
I just looked at Heritage auction results for a series which is a perennial favorite, always popular among collectors: Proof Buffalo Nickels. granted, I haven't seen the coins in-hand, can only comment off what the site shows and it is just one small area, but prices seem slightly below or very close to the PCGS price guide. also, as has come to be standard, the very highest graded coins DO SELL STRONG and beat the price guide.
perhaps others can show how similar popular series' have done at the auction?? this might give us clearer insight into what is really taking place.
But increasing pops and gradeflation can account for decreasing prices with a constant collector base and demand. The coins are simply of a lower grade than before. Existing collectors have lamented this and this may exacerbate the situation by causing existing collectors to leave. It’s been said it’s not fun to have to regrade to maintain a top pop set when the coins are better but now have lower relative grades.
I think there also needs to be a good solution to counterfeiting as well. I haven’t seen any good solutions and without one I can see new collectors also being weary.
**perhaps others can show how similar popular series' have done at the auction?? **
There were no bargains among pre-1830 large cents at the auction, at least at the lower and middle end of the market that I'm familiar with. And very few of these were stickered. Even the roughest coins in 'genuine' holders of various TPGs seemed to sell well, if dated pre-1800, and I'm not talking only about rare die varieties.
Pre-1933 walkers also seemed to do well, again, looking at AU -> 64 coins, not the mega-Duckor-type halves (which someone else reported did well, despite a relatively short holding period for the owner).
I didn't compare directly to the PCGS price guide values, just used my memory and knowledge of these series - so if someone wants to do a more rigorous analysis, to support or disprove my assertions, I'll listen.