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Maybe "the market" ain't so dead.
topstuf
Posts: 14,803 ✭✭✭✭✭
Got a phone call from a prominent dealer last night from whom I had never bought just as a "get to know you" call.
We spent some time on the phone discussing our histories and from what he related about quite a few RECENT deals, the "market" is quite good.
For good stuff.
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"market" is quite good.
I can give the names of 50 other dealers who are observing the same thing to varying degrees in various areas. Some are fully thriving. Is this the beginning of the end or the end of the beginning? To me, it's in a stabilized plateau.
It's safe to go into the water again. No riptides likely to sweep us back into another dip.
I wouldn't consider 50 different people describing various areas as quite good to be a bellwether of things overall. the overall coin market is just sluggish and from my perspective that isn't bad or unexpected. everything was really roaring along for about 10-12 years, that can't last forever.
my take on the OP's observation is this --- when things are good, dealers don't need to be making cold calls to talk up business and find new clients. I would be most concerned about how my contact information was obtained.
I am quite unlikely to ever have dealers cold-calling me, sad to say.
This and succinctly put I might add.
11.5$ Southern Dollars, The little “Big Easy” set
Yep, "Cold calling" might make a person suspect rather the opposite.
I guess I should probably look askance at the invitation to have beers and hot dogs at his new place in the mountains then.
Damn hot dog eating damn dealers.
It is apparently a "buyers" market at the moment..."selling"...not so good.
BST transactions: dbldie55, jayPem, 78saen, UltraHighRelief, nibanny, liefgold, FallGuy, lkeigwin, mbogoman, Sandman70gt, keets, joeykoins, ianrussell (@GC), EagleEye, ThePennyLady, GRANDAM, Ilikecolor, Gluggo, okiedude, Voyageur, LJenkins11, fastfreddie, ms70, pursuitofliberty, ZoidMeister,Coin Finder, GotTheBug, edwardjulio, Coinnmore...
Yea I'd feel a little weirded out if a dealer called me to chat up coins. I will say we have had some nice pay days from the stock market that may influence some people to open up their pocket book a little wider.
"A dog breaks your heart only one time and that is when they pass on". Unknown
When I first read this thread, I also did suspect the OP was simply boasting.
Now I am sure of it.
Have my eye on a few coins at the HA FUN show - suspect that the stuff I want ain't the dead part of the market, unfortunately.
Think I'm going to have a Bill Jones experience and get blown out of the water.
I ain't takin' you to the hot dog feed.
I have no idea what the thread is really about? Getting an invitation to someones nice house?
hey Lakes, are you flying to FUN or riding on an airplane??? as you say, why is the overall market slow yet the few areas and coins I chase see activity?? it is peculiar. it happens for me with medals mainly because the items themselves tend to be scarce/rare and the auctions well publicized.
what are you chasing??
Before you go, you should watch the old Dan Acroyd & John Candy movie 'The Great Outdoors' (1988).
The movie actually addresses this situation pretty closely.
One of the conclusions of the movie would surely be "Don't eat the Mountain Oysters."
I'm not going now. I am too ashamed. I wish I weren't so gullible.
I don't know why you wouldn't receive a number of "agrees", but I will restrain myself from being the first one.
My lat uncle was stock market investor/speculator/stock picker. He made quite a bit of money in the 1950s-1960s. In talking with him (mostly listening) about his approach to stocks, it was obvious that he had never -- ever -- made a bad purchase or lost money. After his death, his son showed me some of the transactions. My uncle, the expert, had made and lost millions - he came out ahead, but he never mentioned the failures.
Resellers of coins, art, cars, cabbage patch kids also never lost a dime, and all their deals were "huge" and "great."
Is a "cold call" ever going to tell you the market is weak?
Who's supplying the mustard?
“I may not believe in myself but I believe in what I’m doing” ~Jimmy Page~
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947)
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
The market is always open. Deals are daily. I don't know how else to put it.
Every question about "THE MARKET" breaks down in which niches are strong and which are weak,
Generic gold is in the crapper. CAC generic gold less so. What kind of resonance do these two areas set off in each other?
Major shows? The mood ? The, the "buzzzzz" or accursed quiet?
"EAC? CCCC? If gold's up a hundred buck, has it helped customers loosen up with actual cash? Are they watching MS66 Saints, and are they thrilled are more interested in how Fitz's 1824's sold, and where are they now?
@MarketReport will tell you what's happening with the best of the best, but common date CAC 64 "B" type is likely stagnant much longer. "Mr. I-Predict" won't let either of his customers buy less than a B+ in anything, but YMMV.
More and more dealers are less afraid. Larger portions of their inventories are moving more quickly, and some once-in-a-blue-moon rarities may still wait 6 months or a year for a picky "whale" in what is still, surely a buyer's market.
Just not for MS67CAC Saints. Would $1400 gold make a big difference? 1884 25c in 61 (rarer than 63), VF,CAC much much rarer, but will their buyers be dancing because proof Barber type is moving?
Etc, Etc. It's not one MARKET.
@keets is usually pretty good in his calls, and I think he on target on the macro level but, as noted above, all the movements in niche domains are at micro level. There is increased resonance, more buzz on the bourse floors, and guys doing middling to crappy.
One cold call or a dozen? Someone simply may have decided to buy a customer list? LOL, customer list sales volumes and net worth/past activity/price points criteria might be an interesting study.
In 2006, Fisher Island, just south of Miami, was the highest net worth per capita ZIP code in the country. $100K per year per co-op unit for the closed community maintenance fees .My coin buddy who may have paid $5000 for a "list" didn't cold call. LOL, email with art of an MCMVII and 1804 was sent on Weds. and the cold call the next Tues.
In 2007, I knew two guys who lived there who told me 5-bedroom, 4 bath co-op apartment sales above $5 mill were softening,
In 2009, those guys were pre-occupied.
In 2011, they may had their money in real-estate vulture funds.
If 2 of the 10 who shrugged about their $5M in coins for a couple of years happened to pig out on Pogue (or not), has that affected your VF Jefferson Head? Did the '95 Reeded Edge penny falling off a cliff kill the Liberty Caps?
Food for thought about "THE MARKET"
Keets:
My lips are sealed until after the show.
I have also never met anyone who travels to Vegas a lot who has lost money...they all seem to only relate how great their trip(s) where when they won something! Amazing. I read an article a long time ago talking about the Venetian when it first opened that discussed how opulent it was, the gorgeous details etc. and the article mentioned 'Just remember, this is has been built by the losers, not the winners." or something like that. I have stayed there twice and spent 25.00 in the slots, drank 4 beers while playing and lost my 25.00 so I suppose I can count myself in as having paid for a corner of one of the tiles in the checkin area or something else!
And I am still waiting for Classic Commems to take off...any day now! Waiting...waiting...and still waiting!
K
I try not answering the phone when telemarketers call
If you can find a ladder tall enough to get off your horse, perhaps you could find where I said it was a "cold call."
I ordered a very modest coin from them and the guy discovered we were both on this forum and that I had been a dealer in the "old days" and we chatted about a LOT of stuff.
Now you can hit "Agree"
Aw shoot, now I'm embarrassed that I ....explained..myself to BD and so I ...will... be going.
Just for spite!
I hate details, on coins and chat rooms!!
Sorry, I am SORRY !!!
Sheeze, what can I do to make amends?
I know. I'll ....BOAST...and post a "NEWP."
Vegas was built on those who "broke even".
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
When I had an auto parts store, I had a lady working for me who had been a casino dealer.
She said at their training seminar, they told em that if everyone who DOUBLED their stash left at that point, all casinos would be broke in 90 days.
How am I gonna quadruple if I don't keep playing ?
I can honestly say that: Vegas and I are Even.
100% Positive BST transactions
A lot of new bitcoin millionaires?
The Fireman...
This story sounds like a bunch of.......I ain't buying this in a million years!
Do you wish to bet me on this?
BINGO
Hoard the keys.
Call him....
Hoard the keys.
Why does a poster try to turn a thread ugly?
Just ignorance or trolling?
Well, if you look at the "buy it now" prices for pcgs cac coins on Ebay, that market is alive and well.....if they sell...
Yup.
Got 2 on the way and another going back.
The return was a "hope" coin.
But....when the bean is in line with reality, they do sell.
sadly, eBay has turned into a "For Sale" venue and "Approval Service" as far as coins are concerned. that has an upside since I no longer have to wait around to snipe as an auction closes. the downside, however, is worse: when something really nice shows up the price is generally high on the "wishful" side. sellers just keep letting things roll over and over, another sign of a sluggish market.
here at the PCGS forum the trend has sort of changed, also. it used to be that members were posting things they had bought from either a dealer or an auction, often eliciting comments by other members who had seen the coin(s). more often now we see threads of coins that members "find" somewhere that others are unaware of.
The coins I buy there are almost without exception, sellers who also have websites and I phone them and we both come out ahead.
The returned coin is one I was "hoping" would match the seller pic.
Sooooooo...,
The process of analysis includes data, an appreciation of nuance and intellectual rigor.
Must be true since I'm seeing the buy gold tv ads back up and running...
Yep. You will probably have to pay "stupid money" for anything on your list that is scarce and good. The trick is to avoid paying "stupid money" for something that is over graded or has problems that not obvious to many collectors and even dealers.
Don’t get lulled into thinking that certification holders and stickers are iron clad guarantees to making bad purchases; they aren’t. Over graded and problem coins can be found, even with these endorsements.
There are three coins I’d really like to find at this show. One of them is British and almost impossible. The other two are American. One has proven to be far more difficult that I imagined to find in the state of preservation and the holder that I would like while the other one is often available. If I get two out of three of those pieces it will have been a great show.
Any collector or dealer who tells you that they have never lost money on a coin is either a liar, a collector who only holds stuff they have pulled out of circulation or they have a box of loser coins that they have never sold.
I have met a few dealers who will never sell a coin at a loss. They usually have most of us call "dead stock."
One of the things we talked about during the 45 minute "cold call" that never happened......besides reminiscing about people we knew in the bizz and coins past and present...was a seeming renewal of interest by some genuine heavy hitters.
We also talked about the trend of eBay fees and the substantial "room" there is in a personal negotiation.
Or we didn't.
**The coins I buy there **
I have done that in the past with sellers I know, also sold stuff like that. remember in the old days when eBay would allow us to post an e-mail address in the listing??
--- as to the "cold call" SNAFU, you have to admit that the way the OP reads is different from how you've explained it since. I believe if you'd have been more forthcoming out of the gate the thread would have gone in a different direction.
Hmm I'm not sure which id rather be, a buyer who loses on every coin I buy or a dealer who loses on every coin I sell. Maybe I could be a collector who loses when I buy and sell... oh wait
"A dog breaks your heart only one time and that is when they pass on". Unknown