CoinWeek: Legend Coin Market Report – The Fall 2017 Baltimore Show
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Legend Coin Market Report – The Fall 2017 Baltimore Show
By
Legend Numismatics -November 15, 2017
Surprise, surprise! In the end it turned out to be a far better show than we had expected
By Laura Sperber – Legend Numismatics ……
THIS MARKET REPORT IS WRITTEN BASED ON THE EXPERIENCE OF LEGEND NUMISMATICS. OTHER DEALERS WILL HAVE DIFFERENT EXPERIENCES.
THE BALTIMORE SHOW
We honestly had believed that the Philadelphia PCGS Invitational only two weeks ago would have drained some of the attendance and activity… We were wrong! While not a record-breaking show for us, we did far more business than expected. The only negative issue? Yet again it was mostly wholesale business that we did. The retail buyers for our types of coins do not seem to buy at shows anymore. If they do show up, they seem to come for events or just to check up and talk to dealers about the market. We felt the overall public crowd was light.
STARTING DAY ONE
We did our usual routine. Saw our favorite first-shot buyer. He struggled a little but he did buy a fair amount. The next dealer in line paid for the show! Very unusual. He was in the mood for high-grade eye-appealing GEM coins for sure. From that point on, sales were steady and good. We normally do not do well the day before lobby leaching really begins – but this time we did! At the show we had two dealers try and clean us out of all of our PCGS CAC gold. Adding it all up Friday night we had a really strong selling show, probably ranking in our top five for November Baltimore shows!
More interesting, since we had some remnants of deals (stuff we would never put on our web site), we had our stealth seller hit the floor with them. The first day, we know he sold several tough coins (that day his total sales for himself was over $100,000). All through the show he was extremely busy. In a rare move he even called us at 7:23 pm Friday night because he had an offer on a five-figure coin of ours with a customer he was with at the time. We know he sold the most expensive coin we gave him–$40,000–early on. We’re guessing this will end up one of his best Baltimore Shows ever (based upon the $100,000+ in sales for us alone, we’re positive it was his best show).
It is clear to us the lack of a major show since the September Long Beach had allowed demand to build up. The dealers on the floor have have had little access to anything out side of auctions (where they can not compete with collectors). So pretty much anything reasonable was scooped up without much haggle.
We want to make it very clear: the coin market is FINE. Demand for QUALITY PCGS CAC is more than PROVEN to be the strongest it has ever been. The bean has been established now for nearly 10 years. It is NOT a fad or a marketing fluke. That is partially why when you go to the major shows you do not see many PCGS CAC coins – they are all off the market in strong hands. As we said last week, we have NEVER seen a smarter, more educated market than this. Kudos to PCGS as well for holding the line again. Right now the long-time dealer motto of “Cheap is Not Cheap Enough” could never be more true. You can NOT buy real quality cheap; you’re kidding yourself if you think you are.
We are proud of the fact that in the last two weeks, between the Stack’s and Heritage sales, we spent over $3,500,000 on coins – mostly for our customers. That’s a very healthy number. Our demand is real and is still at least for $20 million dollars worth of coins. The tough part is that we are highly aggressive and we got shut out on many pieces we really wanted for stock.
THE STACK’S SALE
Falling on the heels of our sale and Heritage last week, we did not think the Stack’s sale would be as strong as it was. It was too darn big. Yet it steamrolled along like it was the only sale in the last year. Legend spent $1.5 million total (yes we bought J-1). Look at some of these prices realized:
25c 1807 DB PCGS MS65+ CAC bean – $162,000 50C 1794 PCGS AU58+ – $262,000 50C 1871 PCGS PR65 CAM CAC bean – $12,000 $1 1869 PCGS PR64 DCAM CAC bean – $15,600 $1 1895 PCGS PR64 DCAM CAC bean – $78,000 (we’re jealous on this one-we under bid it) $2.5 1796 NS PCGS AU53 – $150,000 $2.5 1808 NGC MS60 – $144,000 $20 1873 PCGS PR63 DCAM CAC bean – $105,000
There were too many coins that sold crazy strong. Auctions are the clearest and firmest proof of the market’s strength.
Legend did also buy the Copper Libertas NGC MS64 CAC, much to the protest of a major player in the field who warned us “not to come into his turf” (with a smile).
In this sale you can clearly see the vast majority of NON CAC coins sold for a fraction of what a PCGS CAC coin brings. Lot 10065 was a 50C 1892 PCGS MS67. Clearly it brought its current market price of $6,600 all in. A PCGS CAC piece sold for $14,687 in 2016. Legend also bought a $5 1912 PCGS MS65 NON CAC on the bourse floor for $7,000. The last one to sell in auction that was PCGS CAC brought $16,450. We know we would pay a minimum of $15,000 today for a nice PCGS CAC coin (any one have one?)! It should be noted that NO, the market has NOT fallen in half. Clearly each coin is now bringing its true market value. We are shocked at how many people do not know or understand why there is such a difference of value. The overall market is proved the CAC vs NON CAC pricing to be accurate and true. Just check ANY major auction (unless the coins are first-time fresh).
A SPECIAL DISPLAY/TREAT
Legend Numismatics was the buyer of the Confederate 1C and Half Dollar in last week’s Heritage Sale on be half of the Black Cat Collection. We have now crossed them over to PCGS. We are working with PCGS to bring those coins plus the finest Half Dollar Restrike (PCGS MS65) included in the collection to display at the next Las Vegas Invitational (December 13-15) and at FUN. The original Half is one of only four known and is by far the finest. We paid a record $960,000 for it. The history and importance of this coin is off the charts!
LEGEND NUMISMATICS IS BUYING GOLD
Right now we still need that darn $20 1907 WE PCGS MS66 CAC or better. Help!
Need all PCGS CAC ONLY MS66 $2.5 Indians.
ALL PCGS MS65 CAC W/Motto $10 Indians.
We are seeking ALL PCGS CAC ONLY in AU or finer Early Gold.
We also need a many Saints in particular. We are the current high bidder on the Coinplex: ALL Saints, ALL PCGS CAC ONLY: MS66, $3,475, MS66+ $4,600, MS67 $18,500.
Call or email George Huang (george@legendcoin.com) with what you wish to sell.
Offer us anything cool or neat. We will buy entire collections to get the coins we really need! In the past two auctions we were the biggest buyers, period! We need a tremendous amount of coins.
NEWPS
Buying was tougher than ever. The floor was so dry we had to sit day two out so we did not go around and buy retreads, dreck, or dead stuff. Hardly anything fabulous walked up to us. Nothing sensational came in at the office. Still, we hit everyone we knew and came up with some great offerings. Highlights include:
5C 1900 PCGS MS67 OGH CAC bean 50C 1854-O PCGS MS66+ CAC bean $5 1851D PCGS AU55 CAC bean $10 1797 LE PCGS MS61 CAC bean
Next week we plan on a very cool offering to be highlighted by some fabulous AU Bust Dollars (of course all PCGS CAC).
We still have many killer coins (like the 3CS 1867 PCGS PR67 CAC) in stock. We need to find these great pieces great homes. We’ll work hard to place them in your set!
https://coinweek.com/opinion/market-reports/legend-coin-market-report-fall-2017-baltimore-show/
Comments
Interesting.... I always enjoy the Legend report..... Information from a totally different perspective. Very informative.... Cheers, RickO
In a rare move he even called us at 7:23 pm Friday night because he had an offer on a five-figure coin of ours with a customer he was with at the time. We know he sold the most expensive coin we gave him–$40,000–early on. We’re guessing this will end up one of his best Baltimore Shows ever (based upon the $100,000+ in sales for us alone, we’re positive it was his best show).
Do we have to wait until next month's report to find out the outcome of this "cliff hanger"? Was the offer accepted?
Interesting, but scary. Wall Street has been booming, so it is to be expected the top percent or so would be hungry for trophy collectibles.
" The bean has been established now for nearly 10 years. It is NOT a fad or a marketing fluke."
I cringe when I hear something like that !! ALL things come and ALL things go. Anyone that's been in this business/hobby for a length of time knows that. The "bean" may be king for now, but something will come along and disrupt the apple cart.
JMHO
Bob
Lordmarcovan, WTCG, YogiBerraFan, Phoenin21, LindeDad, Coll3ctor, blue594, robkoll, Mike Dixon, BloodMan, Flakthat and others.
So is the contrast between the wholesale and retail market simply another way of saying coins being priced at a retail price point are not selling because they are at a price point today's market will not bare?
Except why is anyone buying coins wholesale that they can't retail?
I think the issue is more the locus of the sale. As they mention elsewhere, at least for their high end material coin shows aren't the retail venue. I mean, I can't imagine why someone wouldn't want to walk into a Baltimore Convention Center with a briefcase full of cash and walk out onto the streets with a $100,000 coin in their pocket.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
I tend to agree over the long term. But that doesn't really refute their point that, after 10 years, it is NOT a fad. It may not last forever...but that may be true of slabbed coins in general or series collecting or anything else in the hobby. But duration alone precludes considering it a "fad".
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
bear...
Ten years isn't exactly a " long time " ......
While I agree with the idea of somehow " culling " graded coins to try to " fine tune " the grades, there is nothing to say that another " improved " way to do it wont come along.
Do you remember " Computer grading " ? The idea was to take the human judgement out of coin grading. Back in the day it was an idea ahead of it's time and technology. Imagine what could be done following that idea with today's laser and imaging equipment that wasn't even dreamed of back then.
JMHO
Bob
Lordmarcovan, WTCG, YogiBerraFan, Phoenin21, LindeDad, Coll3ctor, blue594, robkoll, Mike Dixon, BloodMan, Flakthat and others.
I made my first Legend purchase during this show (from afar). Strange they didn’t mention it.......
LOL.
Thanks for sharing.
It's not just about CAC. It's about collectors valuing coins more on originality and eye appeal than on rarity or grade. This has brewing 10-15 years and only now is there a commercial presence acting as the proxy. But if it is not CAC, it will be something else. The services tried to bend a little bit by presenting themselves as "market graders" (ie. grade = price) and moving the grade a point or two in either direction to compensate for PQ examples. But that's not enough to reflect the price differentials in the market for coins in the same grade. Hence CAC, or something analagous.
big problem: not enough quality coins to go around. seems every one building any kind of major set has to settle for a wildly inferior piece or two at some point