Thoughts on the 2017-W Burnished ASE
BigA
Posts: 2,715 ✭✭✭✭
A cold AM so I am bored...bear with me
The 2016-W...still on sale after just about a year, has sold 210,073 plus 19,818 in the sold out 2016 Annual Dollar Set (now selling for $100-120 ....graded W 70 from the set around $350). So just south of 230k
The 2017-W , on sale for only 4+ months, has sold only 128,904 with 111k sold in the first four days and will have no Dollar Set additions.
Question is...do you think the Mint has over 70k of these minted and ready to go or could this be an eventual low mintage sleeper.....and yes I know they will be on sale for a year or so BUT at what number will it suddenly disappear?
Full disclosure...I bought a crapload of the 2016 Annual $ Sets hoping the W sales would end early in the year....WRONG! BUT..the set has done well anyway
Comments
Speculation sometimes pays off...... However, the infrequency is why it is called speculation. Most issues that become winners (and not always big winners) are one's that had little to no interest to begin with. The old saying applies...'You buy your ticket and take your chance,'..... Good luck...Cheers, RickO
Exactly my point....
Ultra-modern, made for collector, mint issues are pure speculation. There are far too many things like this being churned out by the mint. Will anyone care about them in ten years. Remember that survival rates on this type of material will be close to 100%. They are not scarce or rare. There will be plenty of supply. Will there be enough demand?
I guess you're right since there has never been a modern Mint issue (i.e. ASE) (100% survival rate) that has held its value for 10 years.....
(??)
They are manufactured gimmicks. Other than stacking regular ASE's, I stay far away from the US mint and the crap it churns out. Especially this nightmare:
Interesting point of views....
I jumped into that boat last year, also. It sounded good. A W mint marked silver eagle going on sale in November. 30th anniversary issue inscribed on the edge. Going up for sale so late in the year it might slip through with a tiny mintage.
I did not realize that the mint could sell them forever. Now I know.
I did better with the early years but the odds were not so skewed. If I recall correctly, in 2006, the first year for the W mint burnished ASE, spot silver was $9 to $15 throughout the year and ended at $13 and the burnished eagles sold for $21 or $22. Currently silver is right around $17 and the mint is selling the burnished eagles for $45.
I think it makes a difference if the Mint collectors' only issue is made of a precious metal. Surges in PM prices that seem convincing to the general public are likely to stir wider interest in legal-tender issues by the U.S. Mint with the add-on numismatic bonus of low production numbers. One may have to hang around shooting paper clips for awhile waiting for said surge, however.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
You are still buying gold, however.. even the unloved first spouse coins debuted at $410 per coin.