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Why hasn't the rarest Lincoln cent ever produced caught anyone's attention?
jmlanzaf
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The 2017-S Enhanced Uncirculated set has a limit of 225,000 sets. They are still available from the Mint despite the fact that at 225,000 the Cent is the lowest mintage business strike Lincoln ever produced.
The other coins are also among the new keys for their sets. The Jefferson nickel is a factor of TEN rarer than the 1950-D which is a $10 coin. Yet these sets languish. The Kennedy half is a factor of NINE rarer than the 1970-D which is a $10 coin. The Roosevelt Dime is a factor of SIX rarer than the 1996-W which is an $8 coin.
Is this the Market's final verdict or an opportunity?
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100% survival rate...so what is so sexingly rare about a coin with a mintage of 225,000?
Dead Cat Waltz Exonumia
"Coin collecting for outcasts..."
1921 Morgan Dollars are 1000 times more common, what is so sexy and rare about them?
The survival rate of 50-D nickels is near 100% making them 10x more common, yet that is still a $10 coin. What's so sexy and rare about them?
I don't expect the 2017-S cent to match an S-VDB in price, but the Mint currently sells 400,000 regular old proof sets per year. What's so sexy about a 2017-S proof cent (or nickel or dime) with 100% survival rate?
There just seems to be a general lack of appreciation for the coins in this set.
Not only is the cent the RAREST CENT - possibly including survival rates. It is a UNIQUE FINISH in the cent series. It may not be sexy, but it should at least be good-looking.
By the way, 1883-CC Morgan Dollar - 1.2 million mintage with a high survival rate in UNC! Now, silver dollars are more popular than cents, but it still seems there's a lack of appreciation for the EU sets.
Low supply is meaningless if there is no demand.
I don't want one.
The mint is issuing so much stuff these days, collectors can’t keep up with it. The number of pieces with various finishes is just overwhelming. Ten years from now, how many people are going to care about an item with a mintage of 225,000 with a virtual 100% survival rate? It will be buried in a long list of lot of other stuff the mint will have issued since then.
You pick just many 19th century coins that have fewer than 225,000 survivors. That number really does not mean anything.
There are an estimated 13,500 1921 Morgans in MS65 or better. There are roughly 225,000 of these cents in ms65 or better. Which is rarer?
It's not rare enough to get excited about it purely on the basis of rarity.
If the mintage was 1000 and you had to win a lottery to get one, then I might get interested.
But I'd probably still boycott. I didn't enter the lottery for that engineered rarity wild west stamp many years ago.
In other words, its about condition. If these were minted and released in circulation, people would be saving them left and right, and they would obviously be worth more than a penny. The higher the condition, the more they would be worth. But since EVERY one is pretty much 69+, they are all valued at the same, which is STILL a lot more than a cent each. But people are not thinking they are worth much more than they are priced at, so they aren't selling. If the mint priced them at face value? Sure, it would be a feeding frenzy.
Try to understand what DCW wrote. Simply no demand for an artificial "rarity."
They will be available 10 years from now for less than issue price.
Suddenly I ....WANT one... BAD !
Oh wait, it's passed now. Whew.
Because it isn't rare.
While I certainly not an expert on current US Mint products, I don't think cents from the 2017-S Enhanced Uncirculated sets are considered "business strikes" the same was as coins intended for circulation. So, to compare them with the established rarities in the series is not a fair comparison.
The 1950-D nickel is not rare or expensive (despite the low mintage) because the coins were saved immediately after release. In fact, the coins were far more expensive in the early 1950s than today (corrected for 60+ years of inflation).
The 1970-D half dollars languished in popularity because they were only issued in mint sets and have always been available. While a "business strike" coin, it was never intended for circulation. As such, collector interest beyond "filling the hole" never really materialized.
The 2017-S cents may only have a mintage of 225,000 ... but there may only be 50,000 active collectors of these pieces. The fact that these pieces are still available from the US Mint speaks volumes as to their popularity and the relative "value" of the low mintage.
Value is not always reflected by low mintage or even surviving specimens. Collector interest is paramount for a "rare" coin to have significant value.
See http://www.doubledimes.com for a free online reference for US twenty-cent pieces
This. Look at many of the classic commemoratives in the 20th century and more common 19th-century proof coins.
Simple answer of supply vs demand.
The supply is there, but what's the demand.
I'll always take a cc dollar anytime anywhere.
I predict that one can buy em at less than issue price next year.
Looks like the forum members in the know have spoken
Stalking me?
Go back to the other thread. I've left that one to you.
If "in the know" corresponds to "agrees with me", then you're right. Lol
I already bought enough for 2 people. But I am looking for that one sell in which he bought a whole roll! I thought that was cool. But I am only a newbie and work just takes all the wind out of me along with my dog! I just buy cause it feels good when I buy. After the coin arrives I look at it, put it away and never think about it again.
I am pretty sure these are not rare by any definition. It has caught peoples attention, go read the thread that has been ongoing since before the release. The same argument is going on. It has a lower mintage than a cent issued for circulation over 100 years ago, so it must be rare and valuable.
Read it? I wrote half of it. ☺
The issue is not that it should be a $1000 coin but that it should be worth more than the $8 it currently sells.
An S-VDB isn't "rare" either, by the way.
I bought a roll of cents last night for $6 each. That's kind of what prompted my question.
At the moment, my dear wife is carrying one of my sets loose in her change purse. When they get worn down to AU-50 I'll have them slabbed. That set should be unique!
Show me a dansco album that has a hole for it. Then show me 200,000+ active collectors with these albums and then you will get some attention.
The 1909-S VDB has been desired for over 80 years. Every album, folder, coin board has a hole for one.
Perhaps in 80 years, the 2017-S non-circulating coin will also be desired.
Right next to your rocky mountain oysters?
I agree that when Dansco puts out the new album with the hole for it, everyone will want to fill it. The point, again, is NOT that this should cost what an S-VDB costs. Again, look at more modern "rarities" that aren't that rare: 50-D nickels, 70-D halves, 96-W dimes. Those all sell for more than these cents. And the nickel and dime series are no where near as popular as the cent series.
I also refer you to the collector base for sets. They've sold almost 400,000 regular proof sets and 260,000 silver proof sets, not to mention around 200,000 mint sets. MINT SETS! Same coins that circulate.
If you combine set collectors with the Lincoln series collectors, it just seems like there should be more interest (eventually) in this set. People have a bad idea about it - witness this board
- but that really isn't an argument for or against.
1) It's modern. None of the others you mentioned are even near as recent. Numismatics usually rewards older coins.
2) The dansco bit that was mentioned. People collect by dansco holes and/or by registry. There are more dansco raw coin people than registry but I don't think they total 200,000
3) It didn't circulate and wasn't meant for circulation. That is usually an important distinction for many of these. Without circulation being part of the formula, the number of people really interested usually plummets (think of proof IHCs...usually in the 3000-5000 mintage range and, while slightly interesting for some, there isn't a huge grab at them (thankfully, as I am still going after them).
4) The unique finish works AGAINST it, imho.
5) I like it, and I have 3 sets, but I don't see it taking off for a long while. Yeah, maybe $5-$10 raw, and $20-$30 slabbed, but not large enough to make it worth it.
6) Getting back to point 1, it is way too recent. I am sure those collectors, from circulation, don't even know about this coin. They may not ever care, because it isn't in circulation. Unless, and until, it is promoted by the big boys, don't expect much.
7) Getting back to point 3, because it wasn't meant for circulation, grades will remain high. There is no sport in chasing it down. Want one? Order a set or go to ebay and get one and it will be a high grade and you will be happy. No sport. No thrill.
When you compare it to other coins, you will have difficulty convincing others BECAUSE it isn't apples to apples. Enhanced Unc finish is different from others, and not something that can easily replace in a slot. Think SMS but even more noticeable.
Not comparable to 50-D nickel,, 1921 morgan, 1909-svdb Lincoln, 1970-D half, 1996-W dime (that has same finish as circ coins and so it is the "W" that makes it stand out), etc
Also, this message board has enough knowledgeable, and opinionated, people that trying to convince people otherwise, and blowing off their remarks when they don't align with your own opinions, does yourself no favor.
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
I'm not a fan of 21 Morgans myself. But even in non-UNC grades, they trade much better than silver.
I would also, if I'm being honest, tell you that I hate S-VDB's, 16-D dimes and all the "fake rarities". I don't think anyone should collect series of coins because they all look alike. It's only the holes that need filling that drive the price of 16-D dimes, etc. But, with THAT said, people DO collect series, even modern series. People do collect sets.
So, I'm still at: how many combined Lincoln collectors and proof set collectors are there? If it's more than 225,000, why is this set the ugly stepchild of annual sets?
I mean, think about it: it's sold about the same as a normal MINT set, half of the proof sets and less than the silver proof sets. Yet, it is unique, possibly a one year type...
Some of your points are valid, but you are ignoring the obvious:
1) It's no more modern than a 96-W dime which is in a much lower collected series.
2) There is no Dansco hole YET. I've asked about the set moving forward, not backward.
3) No proofs were meant for circulation, yet the mint sells FOUR HUNDRED THOUSAND PROOF SETS EVERY YEAR. That is DOUBLE the EU sets.
4) I agree, in the short term. It is an EXCUSE for people not to include it in their year set.
5) I also agree. I've largely asked long term. If the cent is ultimately a $15-$20 coin and the Kennedy Half (look at other MODERN RARITIES in the half dollar series) is a $10-$15 coin, the rest of the set is free.
6) Again, look at MODERN silver eagle "rarities" and Kennedy half dollar "rarities"
7) Again, consider MODERN proof sets and all the "special" Kennedy half dollar sets and silver eagle sets.
You may well favor the classic period, but there is a lot of modern material that is pricey (95-W ASE anyone?). Someone is collecting it. And this set is rarer than many of those other moderns, yet...
Look at the other excited discussions about the $200 American Liberty medals. All the objections you make here, and MORE (who has an album or collects Mint Medals as a series?), yet people are convinced that 125,000 of those makes them "rare".
As long as we're on the topic, can someone explain to me what was special about the 1950-D nickel that they were "not rare or expensive (despite the low mintage)...." and why they "were saved immediately after release"? Just curious. Thx!
Actually, they are still an $8-$10 coin. So "expensive" is relative.
The mintage is low for the series, but the series itself isn't that popular. Hence they are "relatively expensive" for the series but not relative to other series.
They were saved immediately after release because they immediately were known to be a short run and people immediately started hoarding them. It is harder to find a circ 50-D than an UNC. By 1964, the coins were selling for $25 each.
The only problem with this set is that only a limited number of people want it and they have a load of sets. All the previously interested hoards are searching for their next meal or they're buying up every Bitcoin in sight.
*** imaginary Coins are easier to carry than Real Coins
Actually, I'm not ignoring anything obvious. Everything you brought up was already taken into account.
Your reply gets back to my last point....you ask for opinions and because they don't match yours, you try to refute them.
For instance, 96-W dime. You ignore when I talked about how, while it didn't circulate, it is still a business strike finish. It "fits" with others.
Proof sets sell a ton...they are established. However, look how the VALUE of the proof sets usually drop after a short time from the mint. Many are propped up only by their precious metal content (for the silver proof sets) and the clads are a terrible buy. I actually have stopped by clads from the mint.
People don't NEED an excuse to NOT buy something for their year set/collection. That's the point about collections...people can do whatever they want. Saying they need an excuse is trying to impose your values or your desires on others.
The only LOGICAL comparison you could make, and you haven't done it directly, would be a special finish kennedy from a set. What would be missing then would be the comparison that the Lincoln is part of a year set and not a special set on its own. If it had gone out as a special set of its own, it likely would have been in higher demand.
And, saying that I favor the classic period is obviously you making something up to lend credence to your own point and not any points I may have made. I say that because you don't know me and don't know what I collect (which, btw, has classics AND a lot of moderns.....A LOT).
Using the liberty things as a comparison.....you make same mistakes again.
They are sold on their own. not a cent hidden in with a year set.
The mintage is ~55-65% of what the cent will end up being.
Precious metal content?
Part of established series and finishes are NOT 1-offs (cents are established but the finish is still a 1-off on it)
etc etc etc
Let me also say this....I don't care if these are worth a lot more down the road, or not.
I bought them because I wanted them, and I bought an extra or two in case they do go up.
So, at the end of the day, I just don't care.
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
In many ways this is déjà vu for me – a rerun of the 1995-W proof Silver Eagle story.
When the coin was announced as a “bonus” added to the 4-coin 1995 Gold Eagle proof set (and available only in that set), it was derided by many collectors as a “gimmick” coin and an “artificial rarity”, not a legitimate part of the ongoing series of Silver Eagle proofs. Many Silver Eagle collectors boycotted the coin, which was easy to do without missing a year since the regular 1995-P was also available. Significantly, thousands of collectors of the 4-coin Gold Eagle proof set also boycotted the coin, choosing instead the option of the gold set without the bonus Silver Eagle, even though the price for either set was the same ($999). The set with the Silver Eagle was available from the Mint for months and sold only 30K of its mintage limit of 45K. During this time, the price of the 1995-W Silver Eagle was about $250 on the secondary market, and many people predicted it would never go higher. Eventually, however, it was recognized as the key Silver Eagle, and now it routinely sells for over $3,000.
Today the same controversy is playing out over the 2017-S enhanced set. It’s considered by many to be a “gimmick” set with contrived scarcity. It supposedly lacks any kind of a durable collector base. It’s been available from the Mint for weeks and hasn’t sold out. The price is supposedly too high, and it will never go higher.
It took several years for controversy over the 1995-W Silver Eagle to fade away, and for the coin to be judged on its own merits. I expect the same will be true for this set. It’s an attractive one-off set that contains several key contemporary coins struck in a special finish. When it is eventually recognized as such, I doubt that this set will still carry a price tag of $29.95.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Does the Dansco have a place for the '96 W dime? (I know none of mine do, but I have had them for a while, but still after 96)?
As I said, I agree with much of what you say. But, again, with all due respect and no desire to be overly critical, some of those arguments aren't compelling to me.
The 95-W eagle was not a stand alone, just scarce.
Precious metal content really doesn't seem to matter if you look at relative mintages. A lot of the 21st century silver sets are basically at scrap prices.
I totally agree that modern proof sets are a poor investment. I also, personally, don't believe in date mintmark collecting. But people DO buy both sets and create date/mintmark sets.
In the end, the market is what the market is. I'm not trying to argue that the market should be, currently, something different. I'm questioning whether the market will be different 2 or 5 years from now...and in a positive not negative way. The 95-W eagle was not pursued early, never sold out, but has become the holy grail of modern coins. 96-W dimes were not in short supply but are still pursued.
this
supposedly not. Yet it is an $8 coin. You could argue it is OVER-priced because of the high mintage and the relative unpopularity of the series. Yet, the market is what it is.
It is still hard to believe that if the 96-W dime is an $8 coin with 1.457 million minted that the 2017-S EU isn't an $8 coin. Lincolns and Kennedys are more popular. How do you take a bunch of $8-$10 coins, put them into a set and end up with a $25 set?
Time will tell. In the meantime, I'm buying ALL EU cents at $6 and under if anyone's selling.
I lost interest in moderns in 1999.
Great transactions with oih82w8, JasonGaming, Moose1913.
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@Insider2 said: "At the moment, my dear wife is carrying one of my sets loose in her change purse. When they get worn down to AU-50 I'll have them slabbed. That set should be unique!
@SoCalBigMark said: "Right next to your rocky mountain oysters?"
Er, What? Are you on something? Are you hinting at something? Is this a "Left Coast" thing? Truly wacky!
Just more crap the mint is making that no one is asking for or wants. That might have something to do with it?
Really? These sell for $8 each?
That's close to one third of the issue price for but one coin.
As for the EU Sets?
I had really high hopes for these sets but, once I received my 4 in hand, I could clearly see that these were going to be losers as they are advertised as "Enhanced Uncirculated" but they are anything BUT enhanced uncirculated compare to previous EU coins from the US Mint.
It's almost as if they rushed through the entire process just so they could call them EU. The Profiles have ZERO Enhancement as just the tops of the lettering has any enhancing! (i.e. glossy finish) As such, the set is just junk.
I seriously doubt that they will ever have a serious aftermarket. Especially in today's "Fast & Furious" Mint Product Coin Market!
The name is LEE!
200,000 sets in less than 2 months? Shoot, I need some of this "nobody wants" stuff to sell on eBay...
Don't quote me on that.
225k is not rare, and if there was any real interest in them the set would have sold out at the mint at minimum within the first week of release at the mint. It may be the lowest mintage but the survival rate is as close as you can get to 100% at this point. Most of them are also going to grade MS68-70 so it kind of takes the fun out of the search for the desired piece. The one other thing about the set... it is a part of the flood of products that the mint is putting out, and the market gets watered down. It is a new item, so if there is going to be any popularity surge it is going to take time. I don't see this happening but never say never I suppose. Sorry but your comparison with other older coins doesn't even hold a drop of water when you compare them to a coin in a set that just came out a couple months ago. @Bochiman made many very good points, so I see no need to repeat them.
That's an interesting thought and is opposite of the hypothesized effect by many at the time. I wonder how many other collectors are in a similar position.
Very true bochiman .. just like trading futures ,saw many a trader overload on too many contracts .. only to sweat his position, and try to convince other people he was right
Some forum members here loaded up buying 225th Enhanced sets , looking for a killing ... instead ...
That'll be a site to see.