Options
Aaron Judge PSA 10 Bowman Chrome Rookie WAS $1,400....NOW $628 A loss of over 50% in one month
1970s
Posts: 3,093 ✭✭✭✭✭
Sold for $1,400 on August 5th.
Same card now selling for $628.
A loss of over 50% in less than a month.
Something about New York. First Jeremy Lin. Now Aaron Judge.
0
Comments
PSA 10's of modern product generally go down over time as they are usually not hard to get graded high and demand goes down over time
Someone on here made a gutsy call right after his incredible home run derby win that it was the peak and time to sell. I get it not everyone is in it for the money, I fall into that boat but pure dollars and cents it was a great call.
I think if I were a Judge collector I would be trading off my collection for
Giancarlo Stanton rookie cards. Or Mike Trout. Joey Votto, how come nobody ever talks about him? Incredible
OBP for Votto.
I don't think Judge is going to be a bust, but I would go for someone who's already a proven star.
Judges' cards are already priced like he's a proven star, so why buy them?
After the RC era debacle of the early 90s where guys were buying bricks and bricks of all the 2 second standouts, I pretty much walked away and never looked back.
I will say tho - not for investment - but "Judgemania" got me into buying some card issues - out of curiosity - and now - to do the set - it's been fun!
he is in a slump.... Hopefully its not a Kevin Mass issue.....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_players_from_Panama
A strike out it appears...excuse the pun
Or a Kevin Maas issue
Or a too much muscle mass issue
Or he could be from that highfalutin state of Mass, lol..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
how low can it go?!
I expect to pick up his cards for A LOT less in the coming months, especially once the season ends. The Home Run Derby has ruined a lot of player's seasons over the years.
They call me "Pack the Ripper"
This is the main reason I don't "invest" in modern cards
James
He has a natural HR swing, but now that there's enough tape on him, the league see's he is a strikeout machine on anything with much movement. At his age, its unlikely he can correct this. He can have a fine 6-8 year career being a .275/30-35HR/90-100RBI batter, but I doubt he's the reincarnation of Mickey Mantle like everyone hoped. His cards were already priced as if he was the greatest player to ever take the field, it couldn't last much longer. In that other thread, I posted a link where some dufus wanted $10K for an autograph card. It was just ridiculous.
I actively collect Kirby Puckett. I have collections of Michael Jordan, Emmitt Smith, Roberto Clemente, Dwight Gooden, Tom Seaver, Errict Rhett and Evan Longoria.
I tried looking on EBAY and the only one I found in completed listings was from August 20th and it went for $985. Are there recent sales since then I am no able to locate?
There is one available right now on COMC for $850 and an ungraded one for $599.
I actively collect Kirby Puckett. I have collections of Michael Jordan, Emmitt Smith, Roberto Clemente, Dwight Gooden, Tom Seaver, Errict Rhett and Evan Longoria.
that was the last sale on ebay...theres one for $888 BIN that no one wants and the BGS 9.5 is less than 500 now.. a few of the PSA 10's end in the next few days that will def make new current lows..i'd be shocked if it didnt...
He just hasn't played well enough post all star game. That's the nature of the beast, when your hot your hot, when your not your not.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
He's just not good and has been exposed. THAT is what it boils down to.
The good thing about Judge for me?
It got me ripping some new stuff again - and it's been a lot of fun and entertainment.
You know it is funny you bring that up. Imagine a young player in his first full season that hit 37 Hr's at the all star break and only hit 10 the rest of the year slumping to .275 avg at the end of the season. Imagine what they said about Reggie Jackson in 1969 who had more HR's at the all star break than anyone else in history, and who admitted to being overcome by the pressure as a young ballplayer and slumping the last two months...
KC
I think he's a fine young player, but from an investment point of view I don't see the upside. Mike Trout and Bryce Harper are both younger than Judge and they have 13 years, 344 Home Runs, and 978 RBI combined between them. It eventually comes down to career numbers and if you're not in the Pujols, Ichiro stratosphere, the investment isn't there. Collect him cause he's a Yankee or collect him because you like him, but I don't see it otherwise...just my 2 cents.
When a player does well, more people grade his stuff which drives pop down so a slump just magnified it
waiting to hit 50 dollars
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_players_from_Panama
@1970s This will be interesting to see how it plays out. I have averaged down after steep declines on cards to lower my cost basis. If these die hard Aaron Judge fans liked his cards at $1,400 they better love them at $628! The scary thing though is when a card goes parabolic and breaks hard the bottom generally is where the price started to spike so in this case it may be much lower.
He's looking like he might turn out to be more of a Frank Howard (he even kinda looks like him!) than a Babe Ruth or a Kevin Maas. Which is a darn good thing to be. Guess we'll have to see if he cuts down on the Ks and turns some of those whiffs into homers.
These types - the 1/1's would have me screaming into the nite!
I thought I remember some of the other 1/1's retailing for 4K?
Another reason why quick flips are sometimes best
I don't think anyone who followed him in the minor leagues would be surprised at his struggles. He was hitting at an average way over his head for quite a while but pitchers at the ML level adjust to hitters and he is probably going to be a .240 hitter when all is said and done, primarily due to his extremely high strikeout rate.
His power is bona fide though, and I can see him putting together an Adam Dunnesque career, with maybe a bit higher average. He is not even in the same stratosphere as Harper or Trout.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Giving Dryships (DRYS) stock a run for the money...or run out of money that is!
This time next year $100.00
Even with his prolonged struggle, here is where he still stands in some offensive categories:
2017 League Ranks:
• 1st in AL in HR (37)
• 1st in AL in R (97)
• 1st in AL in BB (96)
• 1st in AL in SLG (.581)
• 1st in AL in OPS (.993)
He had an incredible first half, no doubt about it. And his power is bona fide but nothing in his minor league career indicates he will be able to sustain that sort of production.
ETA: I should qualify that by saying that I would not be surprised to see him hit 40 HRs in a season, but I see him hitting closer to .250 than .300. It will also be interesting to see if pitchers continue to walk him once his batting average and production continue to decline.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
A question for new card dealers, do you have people who buy these cards and try to return them via PayPal within six months after it appears the card is not hot anymore and has lost half or more their value?
It would seem like this would happen all the time. I would not sell an Aaron Judge card $2500 via PayPal for this reason, only in person in cash. Apparently it does not happen too often or you would hear more about such.
You have 6 months to return a card????? I thought it was like 30 days
30 days is an Ebay return and PayPal has a separate return that you could use if needed.
stop striking out
Now Hoskins. That guy looks like the next monster.
It was an easy call. Lots of people made it.
Trevor Story. I think I got his name right. Wasn't he doing what Hoskins is doing now?
Anyway, too early to give up on Judge. True, pitchers make adjustments. But so do hitters.
With a good hitting coach to help him he could hit 50 dingers a year, opposite field power like
he has is rare. I still wouldn't put money in his cards, Stanton and Trout and established guys
are the way to go.
This.
Also, Giancarlo Stanton is just 2 years older than Judge and already approaching 300 home runs. His trajectory much like Mike Trout and Bryce Harper has him in the top of the career leaders by the time he is done.
@markj111 There might have been a lot of people who were thinking it but not writing it on this message board. I just looked and it was Orioles93. He was lone the bear who said sell now amongst a large herd of bulls.
^
THIS
I don't know who the coaches are on the Yankees, but to me this seems to be a problem in MLB.
Sorry, JMHO, didn't mean to go too far off topic of thread.
You can buy a 2013 Bowman Chrome Aaron Judge Refractor RC Rookie PSA 10 Gem Mint for $186 on BIN.
im not a fan...but just posting in case someone is looking.
actually look at the main thread on aaron here...quite a few were warning (and wrote) that it was a matter of time before they "figured him out"... but i was def going to enjoy the ride as it lasted....it was good for the game and the hobby the amount of excitement that it generated...he still seems like a nice humble guy and I'm still rooting for him ..now its his turn to alter his swing,...then the pitchers adjust...back and forth
I swear they were going for 1800-2000 at the National. I dunno if anyone bought them, and obviously the prices are at a premium. I was kicking myself when I coulda bought one in May for $300, when they got up to $1200. But I think we've all seen these amazing increase in prices, only to come back down over time. Supply and demand and slumps, baby.
Did you just put Babe Ruth in the Kevin Mass category, what are you trying to say?
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
I'm pretty sure Astrodome was saying Judge isn't going to be a bust like Mass, but not an all-time great like Ruth.
I actively collect Kirby Puckett. I have collections of Michael Jordan, Emmitt Smith, Roberto Clemente, Dwight Gooden, Tom Seaver, Errict Rhett and Evan Longoria.
I looked through it this morning and the only person that I saw that actually said sell was the person I referenced. There were others that were cautious but no one else said sell now at the height of the frenzy. As I said I think it was a gutsy call with so much momentum.
"Great time to sell judge over the next few days. I stopped at Walmart tonight and decided to check out the card section to see what was there, and the whole section was empty except a few Topps base packs. Same thing happened to me at a target a week ago. They can't seem to keep the stuff on their shelves. People are buying looking for judge."
The next post.
"Sell them right here; I'll cash you out nicely."
He had his skeptics and we all have the benefit of hindsight.
I sold my two 2013 Bowman Chrome Draft Pick HTA boxes for $800 a piece just as I said I would in that thread.
Robb