Idea: TPG GRADE-OFF!
Danye West
Posts: 193 ✭✭✭
So PCGS and NGC have been in a bit of a flame war, but why not have both (and other TPG's) put their money where their mouth is? What do y'all think of having an epic contest to determine the best, once and for all?
Here's how I imagine it:
Each TPG sends forth their 3 best graders.
Teams are given 60 minutes to grade 100 coins.
All of it live-streamed.
A panel of 10 ultra-wise expert judges determines the 'true grade' of each coin.
I could make a birth year registry set out of pocket change.
1
Comments
I can't see any reason why the TPGs would agree to this. Even if they would, there is no way to find any judges that would be provably better than the TPG graders.
http://www.shieldnickels.net
Since there are no standards, how could there ever be a winner or a loser -- how could anyone be right or wrong?
So who has the best opinion?
Lance.
Great idea but don't think it would work:
Why would a TPGS take part?
Why limit it to NGC and PCGS? Randy Campbell and John Roberts may be pretty good with dollars. Anyway, the big two would not let ANACS or ICG into the contest. What if ANACS graders won? Forget about that, the "judges" would make sure that didn't happen!
One service may be better for certain coins.
Whatever the outcome, it would probably change on another group of coins.
Who are the judges?
While all four TPGS grade pretty much the same, there is some wiggle room that allows a service to have their own standards and many of the super-duper judges may not agree.
I base my opinion on this:
Decades ago a group of top dealers and famous numismatists could not agree on the grade of an XF early Large cent. It all started when a kid at the table told the assembled group that grading coins is easy as he was self-taught. Then he said he could go down to the streets of NY, pull a passerby up to the room, give him a copy of Photograde and the non-collector could grade a coin. This caused just a little dissension. LOL. A Large cent was passed around and the grades were recorded in secret on slips of paper and passed in. The grades from the experts ranged from VF to AU! The kid, a rookie authenticator at the table with only a few years as a professional numismatist had held fewer than a dozen early Large cents in his life. He opened the copy of Photograde and matched the XF photo to the coin. He was one of the few who graded the coin correctly as an XF.
In my opinion, the major problem with grading any coin is the attempt to put a price on it. A dummy can grade the coin with just a little training. It takes an expert to price one exactly to the market. That's why the sample coin in the story was graded VF, XF, and AU. Most tried to put a value on it. The young authenticator had no idea what it was worth in any grade, yet he could grade it!
I don't think this is likely to happen either. But if there was pushback to see it happen, or prize money or something, or if for example NGC and ANACS were for it and pushing it, PCGS would be compelled to join.
I think ANACS and others should.
A panel of expert numismatists like in the classes at Summer Seminar (though obviously not the ones competing). I see you Kevin.
Also doubt bias could be an issue because the judges wouldn't know what each team graded the coin as.
That's probably true, and obviously there are some technical details to work out, but it would be easy to give credit for multiple answers like 66+ and 67 for example.
The BEST way to "test the TPG's has been done in the past in small ways....but maybe not as comprehensively as one would like for a truly scientific result.....
Send the same coins raw to each of the services, possibly more than once, and tabulate the results. As noted, it's pert-near impossible to say which service is "right", but you could show which is tougher, and most consistent.
You would also waste a whole lot money.
Interesting idea... Grading remains subject and would not establish much of anything ... Certainlly nothing beyond the coins involved in the competition.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
It would never happen...too much pride at stake. It's not like they can give out a "Grading Service of the Year" trophy/plaque/etc...
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It will not happen for various reasons, and if it did, it would prove nothing. There are no standards, merely informed - and uninformed - opinions. If there were standards, there would be no CAC, the competition would be comprised of who had the most attractive slab and labels. Cheers, RickO
Will the "Unaffiliated All-Stars" get to compete? Can I have @centsles on my team?
Make it a cash prize of $100K
Upside: None
Downside: Bad PR
Chance: Zero
Oh, yeah, and
Standards: Non-existent - Unless you return to ANA standard grading. That's actually pretty easy, since AU55 is the new XF45, just subtract 10.
ANA 50 year/Life Member (now "Emeritus")