Help a noob with an eBay Saint?
Tradernik
Posts: 111 ✭✭
Hi everyone
My first post here. A short version of what brings me here is that I recently came into a bit of money and with it came a couple of coins. I consider myself bitten hard by the bug. Been reading all I can over the past few months and trying to understand grading, key dates, CAC and its value, etc etc. I contacted a few of you here with my questions and have received some really great responses, so thanks to those who have kindly taken time to respond.
I have a million more questions but I'll save them. Right now, I want to understand what I'm seeing here. Getting a Saint at $65 over melt seems to my noob eyes to be a decent deal.
Please note - no returns. Apmex is the seller so not a shady dealer. The Saint is one of a few coins I've seen that really jump out at me. They say 'Buy what you like', right? I like Saints.
So what's the deal with the 'Random Date' thing? Could all the coins they have really be MS62 in a PCGS slab? Is that what I'm buying here? If so, I'm obviously getting a non-desirable date, like... what, 1922?
Any info on this is appreciated. Normally I'd think I shouldn't expect much numismatic value in a deal like this but geez... a Saint? Don't all Saints have some numismatic value?
Comments
I had pretty good luck on a generic $10 Indian from APMEX a while back. But, don't expect you are going to get a better deal than bargained for. On that kind of deal I would expect the most common date and low end for the grade, meaning you probably won't get a coin that will CAC. It's a pretty good deal in any event.
CommemKing, thanks for the response. Yeah, I am thinking of this just in terms of the fact that the premium over spot has gone down so much for this particular coin. I would seriously consider a strategy where I buy one of these every time gold goes down $50 or $100 and hope for a return to higher ratios if gold goes back above i.e. $1350. It's basically an attempted bullion play for me.
I just realized something else. That link points to the US eBay site. I searched the Canadian site (I'm in Toronto) and I see the same coin at the same price. Now...I know pure gold sales are tax exempt here. But this is 90/10. Taxes + import duty on this? If so.... grrrr.
I bought a few generic $2.50 from them.
What makes a random date and a generic coin is the high populations. It will take an accident on there part for you to receive a better date coin.
What also makes a generic is the common grade.
At that premium you are buying a generic, common date and grade coin.
I did ask them once if what they had in stock. They told me only NGC. So, if your leanings are PCGS only, I suggest giving them a call first.
Aha, really. I have no idea if this is accurate but in looking at price histories, I've developed the impression that there's less grade-flation in the PCGS world and that PCGS MS62 is maybe incrementally better than NGC MS62. I welcome comment on that.
After I posted here, I thought 'Maybe these are coins in MS62 holders, common date, that Apmex thinks are marginally overgraded to start with'.
Calling them tomorrow to ask about the tax+duty thing for Canadians.
Unsure the market for generic NGC vs PCGS. I was liking for non-duplicative dates and MM.
Generally the taxes and duties bill is sent by customs.
Wait and buy one you can see (at a photo) before paying. The hassle of returning a dog isn't worth the headaches IMO. 62 Saints can be really beat up and ugly or can have decent eye appeal. Don't take the chance.
P.S. That's the going price. No great deal, just the normal price in today's market for a sight unseen generic 62.
VH, thanks for the input. Okay - the whole point is to capture some return to historical premium levels. Obviously I can buy bullion for closer to spot.
So you would probably say 'Get a nice coin a grade higher'. One question for you if you see this - if the play is capturing a return to higher premiums, isn't it okay to go with a common date? As long as the quality is there (nice coin, good eye appeal, maybe 63 or better)? Basically I'm not in the big-timer league to buy one in a rare date at these grades.
Other option, I guess, is to look at coins other than the Saints in order to be able to go up the grade ladder a bit... I assume many US gold coins that were trading at high premiums to spot in i.e. 2010 have come back in recently. My thinking was
"Buying a decent collectible gold coin at 5% over spot is a good idea". I guess I have to be careful about whether this deal will return a 'decent' coin.
@Tradernik... Welcome aboard. Playing the 'market' game with gold can be tricky... Sure, profit can be made... and money can be lost. The best thing about slabbed gold is that it is generally accepted to be authentic, thus easier to sell. Good luck with your foray into the gold market... Cheers, RickO
Thanks RickO, for this and for our previous discussion. As a result of VanHalen's post above, I made some calls today and found another source for random date Saints basically at spot, so this thread has already saved me $$.
I guess there are some here who wish that gold would tank and others already holding who wish it would pop. I clearly remember in about 1999, there was a Time magazine cover story with the headline 'The End Of Gold' or something similar. How I wish I would have acted then. I knew that was the bottom.
Put your money back in your wallet until you know more about grading. When you do, go to a show and buy there, sight and grade seen. There is no Santa Clause in numismatics. You get what you pay for ... if you are lucky.
Thanks, I'm looking forward to my first show here in August. Still won't have a good handle on grading but at least I'll be able to see them.
THIS.
I would pass on this deal as it's a sight-unseen purchase. Understand that spotted/stained/unstickered MS62's will fetch $25-$50 less than one w/o spots. Another risk is that you get an AU in a MS62 holder. Or a puttied coin in a MS62 holder. You can also get a 1908 NM which usually comes with soft/flat striking details looking like an AU coin. If it were me, I'd wait fork over another few bucks to get a choice MS63 around $1310 or a MS64 at $1380. While that's a bigger premium to gold, those grades at least could see some "price separation" down the road....especially MS64's. There are some pretty flashy and clean 63's/64's out there that are currently bringing almost no premium. If gold were a lot higher that would not be the case. Also consider the downside if gold returns to $750 again....your Saints will drop by $500 too.
Fwiw, at $1400-$1450, a PCGS MS64 $20 Lib is probably one of the best $20 deals out there. Those are far scarcer than 63/64/65 Saints. In fact 2X as scarce as slabbed MS65 Saints.
roadrunner, thanks for a helpful response. I am absolutely ready to pay a bit more if the risk/reward is better. Basically I was thinking of this as a way to buy physical gold with a little kicker in there but it seems there are better ways to go about it. As I mentioned I have now found a place that will sell 'uncertified' Saints at melt. It's much clearer to me now what I might be getting with these.
Okay, this is a big wake up call for me. I had assumed that because it's Apmex, there would be zero chance that it would actually be puttied. After making this post, I realized that maybe these are overgraded coins, as you suggest.
It's the 'price separation' that I was looking for - pay close to melt and then get the benefit when that ratio expands again (if it does. Big if).
With regard to the risk that gold goes to $750, absolutely I agree. If it did I'd be a buyer like many here, I assume. I'm starting very slowly to stack silver with the idea of adding on every $1 drop. Start out with small amounts and increase slightly on every drop. I don't mind owing physical silver. I can easily see gold coming off a lot from here. I guess you just have to make a decision as to when to start accumulating.
I'm off to have a look at the $20 Lib. I guess it's pretty obvious how new I am. I do appreciate everyone taking the time to respond.
Thanks again for a helpful post.