Has CAC affected the way many collectors and dealers view coins??
keets
Posts: 25,351 ✭✭✭✭✭
Not long ago the rant was that "If it ain't in a PCGS/NGC holder there must be a reason" and the implied/inferred reason was that the coin had a problem(s). I believe that thinking has now changed with many(especially many at this forum), now it is widely perceived that if a coin doesn't have a CAC sticker it is deficient in some way. It strikes me as sort of weird that so many think like that since a negative can't be proven: the coin absent the CAC sticker either failed the "test" or didn't get tested because it is dreck.
How did we arrive at this juncture so quickly?? How have so many so readily and easily dismissed the opinion of the graders at PCGS and NGC??
I think there is an opening for CAC to cut out the middle man. They should design and offer a service whereby a submitter can send them a raw coin with a grade assessment on it, then CAC can issue their sticker or not issue it. Voila!!
al h.
Comments
There are some segments of the market that CAC has Zero effect on and I am very thankful for that.
How did we arrive at this juncture so quickly?? How have so many so readily and easily dismissed the opinion of the graders at PCGS and NGC??
Honestly? Crap grading. Not always, but often enough that the need for CAC grew by leaps and bounds
Perhaps CAC needs to set up a public forum. Three threads a day knocking PCGS grading shows more patience on the part of the host than I would grant.
Bruce, I think that "inconsistent" might be a better adjective and easier to agree with. more to the point, I think it comes down to the simple fact that there are many collectors(and again, that includes a lot of those at this forum) who can't grade as well as they think they can and their low confidence leads them to CAC. in that regard, CAC has just followed the path of PCGS and NGC, they saw an opening and took it.
I don't claim to be a top notch grader, I make enough mistakes, but I don't understand the over-reliance on the opinion of a few others. newcomers to the Hobby almost always want to start submitting their coins instead of learning how to grade first. again, CAC took advantage of that with collectors in the Hobby for a long time, convincing them that the "bean" is important and needed. to that end, I think they have changed how collectors view coins.
--------- I am in no way "knocking" PCGS grading, more to the point I am wondering why so many feel the need to question PCGS grading via CAC after they have paid for the PCGS opinion.
I was skeptical about CAC at first because I felt like it was adding an additional expense to the certified coin game, and if I did not pay up, my certified coins would become less liquid. I can tell whether a coin is solid for the grade or not in the series I collect. However, I have warmed up to CAC quite a bit since its inception. CAC really helps people like me, who live in the middle of nowhere, in online purchasing and bidding. If I see a Seated quarter in a new PCGS PR65 holder in an auction, how am I supposed to tell whether it has too many hairlines for the PR65 grade? Seriously, guess from the glamour photos? A CAC bean at least gives me some reassurance that it's not an overgraded turd.
I think CAC has made TPGs life easier. TPGs can focus on manufacturing product and CAC can judge the value of that product. Better for TPGs cause up until CAC they had to judge the value of the product as a result of their grading opinion. Now, with CAC, the TPGs neither have the responsibility nor the risk.
CAC took over so quickly because a great many people who post here think that John Albanese is a god and the greatest coin grader in the history of the human race. Whatever he says is true and woe be it to anyone who does not fall in line with that assessment.
I have never understood that kind of hero worship for ANYONE.
what percentage is needed to be what you consider 'many'? if it is less than 10% then, YES
It's not too tough to see why CAC was inevitable.
Say PCGS grades 1 million coins per year. And say they are really good and grade properly or conservatively 95% of the time. That would still mean they overgrade 50,000 coins per year, simply due to the huge number of coins they grade.
Nobody cracks out an overgraded or doctored coin...most stay right where they are. So they build up over time. After 20 years, that would mean 1 million overgraded coins floating around out there, never getting cracked out or taken off the market.
CAC was inevitable, for the simple reason that the longer a TPG grades, the more their small number of grading errors build up over time in the market.
That isn't an insult to PCGS at all. It's just math and time.
I don't think we arrived at it that quickly. Gradeflation was a known problem for a long time without a solution. Part of it is due to the inherent variability and subjective nature of grading combined with regrading behavior. Then some dealers exacerbated the issue by devising and using schemes like slamming. So when CAC arrived, there was a ready-made problem to solve, it wasn't a solution searching for a problem.
Of course, one interesting thing now is seeing stickered coins get upgraded and stickered again....
Well said.
Oh I don't think that other than completely DESTROYING the hobby, there will be any appreciable effect.
I mean it's cool to pay to get your coins graded by a competent grading company, but that in no way compares to the pleasure of paying someone else to say your grade is POO POO.
That's a good SAFETY margin. GREAT!
The service should do one of two things.
a. Entice people to collect coins and solicit myriad opinions of what the heck it should grade so they know whether to enjoy their coin or dump it ....QUICK.
b. Return the hobby to albums and coins that may or may not be "enhanced" but still please one to look at the progression of design or dates and just buy raw coins again that are "pretty."
I don't think ANY of the grading companies have analyzed the long term effect of legitimizing a company that DOES NOT GRADE to affect the attitudes and appetites of the general collector.
In a legal vein, there may even be a hint of some liability that could be argued.
In fact, if I were a GRADING company, I would ALREADY have retained a marketing consultant to analyze the whole situation.
COMPLICATION of any field will NARROW participants.
Is that true or not true?
??????????
I would love to read your explaination as to what JA has done to be rated as "one of the foremost nimismatists alive." I have yet to read a book or even an article that he has written. I have not seen any evidence that he is an authority on any series of U.S. coins.
Yet, his opinion is superior to all of those who conduct major research and publish award wiinning books. I've been told here that he outranks Q. David Bowers. The implications are that he outranks John Dannreuther, Roger Burdette and R. W. Julian.
So let's hear about. Share his resume with us so that those of us who are confused might find the path to salvation.
I've spent a few million in the past 8 years, buying coins. 98% of these purchases were "walk-ins" with raw coins. We (customers and I) rarely argue grades. Pricing is where there is a point of contention. So with that, I say, " show me the coin", and so it is with JA , I'm sure.
Best....Presdient....ever
Yet, his opinion is superior to all of those who conduct major research and publish award wiinning books. I've been told here that he outranks Q. David Bowers. The implications are that he outranks John Dannreuther, Roger Burdette and R. W. Julian.
Those guys can grade? Impressive
Yes.
Liquidity.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
Positive or negative liquidity for you?
It seems like it can have a positive effect for some coins and a negative effect for others.
Positive on those coins with a CAC sticker, negative on those coins without a CAC sticker and confusion on those coins where it is more difficult to justify the expense of a CAC submission.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
Okay he's a good businessman who has helped to found the two leading grading companies. Others would qualify for that as well.
Do you have evidence to prove that? How do you know that he has seen more coins than only one else around? Many of us have seen thousands of coins, delved into die varieties and die states and minting techques. Albanese is hardly unique on any of these scores. Q. David Bowers has probably handled as many raw coins as any one back during the days when there were no grading services.
Bowers wrote a book on grading which was very highly praised several years ago. Where is JA's book?
You make claims, but you don't come up with an evidence to support them.
Look, I'm not going to say that John Albanese is not a good grader. His CAC approved coins hit the mark 90+% of the time. The problem is when you place someone on such a high pedestal it makes his “perfect image” an easy target.
I am going to leave you with this CAC approved coin, which I saw when I was shopping for an 1852 gold dollar for my set.
Take a look at the area above Ms. Liberty's head. Do you see the "L" that is scratched in there? I almost missed it before I took out my 10X glass.
Do you think that mark was put on that coin when it was struck? It looks like post mint damage to me, and yet this coin has a green CAC sticker. PCGS and JA missed it.
I show this to you so that you might not be as prone to drink every cup of Kool Aid that is served to you. THINK, and don't accept everything that people tell you.
CAC and John Albenese have taught me a lot, particularly about gold, which I don't know very well. I'm a fan...not a blindly loyal fan, but definitely a fan. I think he has a great eye for coins that have, and have not, been messed with.
Tom
Answer to first question: Yes
Next question: There are too many to list in write bite for the forums.
I don't think CAC has an interest in cutting out the the so-called middleman.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
.
CAC is another grading opinion that can be considered when buying coins online or in person. Flawless, absolutely not, but the more opinions I can get from those who know more than me the better. In a perfect world, I would also have Bill Jones, Jason Poe, Tom Bush, and others to show every coin I am considering. But the perfect world is not the real world, so absolutely, CAC has affected the way I view/evaluate coins.
Best, SH
Saying something so prominent was missed by two graders at Pcgs and by at least one more at CAC flies in the face of the odds. Far more likely is they considered it a random mark and net graded the coin appropriately to MS63.
I have no problem thinking for myself - I still buy non CAC coins occasionally. I can handle assessing large visible stuff myself. But at least the sticker ensures no subtle doctoring that I can't detect - or a ready market for it if they missed it
Don't count me in this group. To assume a coin is dreck because it does not have a sticker is insane. Hardly any of my coins have stickers and I have a lot of nice coins and I don't need JA to tell me they are nice. PERIOD!!
My problem is not with John Albanese. My problem is with the people who say that any coin without a CAC sticker is somehow suspect. My problem is with people who post falsehoods here like, “Every coin that is offered by the major auction houses has be reviewed by CAC.” Therefore the inference is that the coins without the stickers didn’t make the grade. That is just plain NOT TRUE.
I have never met John Albanese in person. I have talked to him over the phone several times. He seems be an honest unassuming man, who probably gets a little nervous with some of the copy that builds him up as “perfect.”
His company provides a service that means a lot to some people. His company does not provide a service that says, “Anything without our brand name on it is dreck.” He has openly admitted that from the day CAC opened its doors.
Part of the problem, Bruce. I don't know how old JA is but if he wants to get out of the grading business, who can succeed him if a man of your grading skills cannot even compete with his.
Bill, you seem to have interpreted what I posted and explained it nicely as well. I don't believe I called CAC into question, more to the point it is those who believe it is now necessary in order to sell a coin at its full value. to that end they would seem to worship at the alter as you describe.
I don't understand the perceived need by some for a grader to have to have published works to be considered a good grader or knowledgable. These are at best peripherally related.
Michael Jordan did not write any books about basket, I don't understand why people think he is so good in the basketball world.
Steve Jobs didn't write any books about marketing, technology, consumers, or anything actually, so he really wasn't very good dealing with those while in charge of Apple.
And I have no dog in the CAC fight.
Baseball - Where did I bash CAC???? I simply stated that I don't like the preceived notion that non CAC coins are sub par. I have no problem with collectors that prefer CAC coins. I just don't personally see the need to spend extra money on coins already in PCGS holders that I like.
I AM NOT A CAC BASHER!!!
>
It seems pretty uncommon to see this opinion expressed amongst the forum members. Or those that do would only say so to try to maximize their profit, not because it is actually necessary.
I think the hobby is back to where it was before TPGs, but on a finer scale. Everyone has free range in describing a coin's condition. Stars, beans, pluses, are yesterday's gem uncs, choice uncs, and gem choice uncs.
If you put it there, some people are going to believe it. String that covered went on for a couple of days, and the record needs to be set straight.
Three would be better than two.
with no opinion on JA as a grader it's important to remember that his job now is very simple, he is grading a grade. what he does is really not much different than PCGS doing an NGC crossover submission:
no sticker --- DNC.
green sticker --- cross at same grade.
gold sticker --- cross one point higher.
viewed through that lens it baffles me as to why a green sticker should command a premium.
I wonder where the market would be if JA wasn't supporting CAC bids?
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
From 2008 Maurice Rosen interview
MR: Given all this John, why did you start CAC?
JA: I felt we were basically in a death spiral. I saw the “C” coins dragging down the prices of “A” and “B” coins. Throughout my career I’ve always tried to buy the “A” and “B” coins. I felt that someone just had to push back. I felt strongly that the “A” and “B” coins needed to trade on their own, to be decoupled from the “C” coins. I felt the best way to accomplish that was to start CAC. Earlier in the interview I was critical of The Greysheet for contributing to gradeflation. The Greysheet changed ownership in 1984. Since then I’m glad to say there’s been a decided improvement. They’ve been much more responsive, reporting the prices as they see them.
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
MR: What do you hope to achieve with CAC?
JA: We will ignore the less than “B” coins. We know it’s going to be hard but we’re barely in the first inning and have achieved some impressive success. Greysheet bids are strong since we started, but Bluesheet prices (sigh-unseen bids as opposed to the Greysheet’s sight-seen bids) have not been as strong. We’re already seeing a start to the decoupling we hoped to achieve. We expect volatility in prices; what we shouldn’t expect is volatility in grading. That’s our mission.
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
MR: Have you encountered any obstacles in developing and carrying out your mission?
JA: Clearly, there have been obstacles from the dealers selling the “C” coins. They are starting to encounter problems selling their coins because we’re making markets in “A” and “B” coins, not “C” coins. However, the bigger problem is people not fully understanding our program. That’s probably my fault for taking a low-key approach to this point, not aggressively advertising and marketing CAC. That will be addressed soon enough, and your advisory, Maurice, will be a big help to us. Our efforts have been to get the product out there, encourage submissions, allowing the product to speak for itself. The market will eventually determine how successful we’ll be.
I have dealers calling me telling me they don’t need me to tell them their coin is PQ. I tell them they’re right, but the problem is the guy a few tables down from them has coins for sale at much lower prices then they do. Their nicer coins need to distinguished from the pack. I’m not disparaging the other coins; after all, a “C” is a passing grade. I just don’t believe that a minority of less-than-solid-grade coins coming out of the services should dictate the entire marketplace.
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
When I say "don't need" all I mean is that I am comfortable buying PCGS coins or for that matter ngc coins or raw coins that are not CAC stickered. As far as me bringing this up.....I don't bring it up any more often than these constant CAC praise threads are brought up.
And I'm certainly not the only person who feels this way.
I liked keets chart on crossing and CAC. A green CAC is a cross....why is it worth more money.
And another point is that not all CAC coins looks that great to me. And I am sure others have seen plenty of CAC coins that were not that great.
Bottom line is that to me the whole CAC thing has hurt the hobby. JMHO.
I'll add to that that you ain't seen nothin' yet.
Unless there are magnitudes more A &B coins than Cs (this is so stupid) then the C coins are gonna be looking for homes amongst the ignorant or inattentive..
Or so it will seem.
And.....their subsequent failure to be salable will drag down everything.
Wha ah jist trahd ta sell mah coin ah hed fer yeers an wuz happy wid, an now nobody wants ter tutch i t. Phooey!
CAC can't grade copper any better than PCGS.
CAC doesn't grade anything.
I read that somewhere.
They are grading it if they are saying it is top end, dreck or under graded with a gold sticker.
Years ago (i think the 70s) books came out on how to count cards at blackjack. The casinos were terrified they would get slammed by an army of counters. Sure enough the book Beat the Dealer was a bestseller. But a strange thing happened---profits went up for the casinos ! All these new counters thought they could beat blackjack but although they learned in theory, they loss due to errors, lack of discipline, poor money management, etc.
I hear so many collectors state they can grade and dont need tpg or cac but i feel like it is sort of like the counters---yes some will be very good at it but most will not be as good as someone like JA. I cant blame someone for being realistic about their knowledge and seek out the approval of someone more knowledgable like JA.
I call BS
Do me a favor and link up all those constant CAC praise threads. I must have missed those. Hopefully BillJones will link up all those JA is God comments as well. I've never seen one of those either. Just because you guys keep repeating this mantra doesn't make it true. It seems you want it read into everything to fit your POV.
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
You could replace that with CAC can't grade copper any more consistently than PCGS. I know Pictures don't tell the whole story, but there are many Lincolns I have trouble seeing in the PCGS assigned grade, and then they even get stickered by CAC. I wish it weren't true.
Mark - I like you and respect your views. But you are the one WRONG here. I don't start these threads ..... I only respond to them when someone else brings up the same ole "CAC" topic.
Then it should be no problem for you to cite all the CAC praise threads. About to take off on a flight I'll check back later.
I like you too Jon and respect all POV's but I still reserve the right to call BS when I smell it. Frankly I'm sick of all the CAC threads and the volumes of misinformation and whining they bring.
Frankly you being a varieties guy I can see why you wouldn't have a need for CaC
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......