One could paint the same broad brush for classic gem commems in 1989. Recall a MS65 Columbian Expo worth in the $4,800-$5800 range....$375-$500 today. How about a gem MS65 $10 Indian back in 2006 at $7500.....today $2,300 (63's got up to $2500+ at that time....$775 today). Or a 1878 MS64 $3 gold Indian at $13,500 back in April 2006.....today $3500. There's no shortage of them.
With respect to the 1997-W Jackie Robinson coin only. I am wondering how much of the price drop was due to the venue. Three bids seems to be an indication of low traffic.
As to the 1995 W SAE there are many people pushing out complete set of both proof and uncirculated eagles sans the 1995-W and most collectors want the complete set. Those that can afford it buy at the going price.
I don't mean to bring up HRH, but Charlie Sheen just sold a couple of Babe Ruth items for over 4 mil. I mean, the market is never in trouble. Ever. The market is always alive and well. Our hobby just happens to be under pressure. I don't think the bullion dealers would disagree, either.
@Justacommeman said:
I think this is terrific time to be buying if you have long term goals. The only problem is the lack of quality inventory available. When something special makes its way to sale there is a pent up feeding frenzy. There are tons and tons and tons of retreads in the market and there seems to be little bottom for these coins.
Coins that are all there and are esthetically pleasing will always be in demand.
mark
Couldn't agree more. However, I'll add a codicil that one should from today on, be VERY discriminating on ...EVERY.... purchase.
Cuz I don't see the future "cuttin no slack" for mediocrity in ANY area..... ever again.
Anyone even remotely into Baseball views Jackie Robinson in a special way. He is one of the icons in the Hobby of Baseball Fandom. But how many Baseball Nuts want a Robinson Gold Coin? Put a nice Jackie Robinson Card out there , people get excited. Put a JR Commemorative Gold Coin out, it's just a different Ball Game.
@FullStrike said:
Anyone even remotely into Baseball views Jackie Robinson in a special way. He is one of the icons in the Hobby of Baseball Fandom. But how many Baseball Nuts want a Robinson Gold Coin? Put a nice Jackie Robinson Card out there , people get excited. Put a JR Commemorative Gold Coin out, it's just a different Ball Game.
Regarding "how many Baseball Nuts want a Robinson Gold Coin?" a better question would be how many baseball collectors want a Robinson gold coin in their PSA Registry Set?
Here's a dollar coin from a PSA Registry Set. Just swap out the PCGS inserts for PSA inserts and see what happens.
@Justacommeman said:
I think this is terrific time to be buying if you have long term goals. The only problem is the lack of quality inventory available. When something special makes its way to sale there is a pent up feeding frenzy. There are tons and tons and tons of retreads in the market and there seems to be little bottom for these coins.
Coins that are all there and are esthetically pleasing will always be in demand.
mark
Couldn't agree more. However, I'll add a codicil that one should from today on, be VERY discriminating on ...EVERY.... purchase.
Cuz I don't see the future "cuttin no slack" for mediocrity in ANY area..... ever again.
100% agree. Be super super super choosy at every level and you be be ok.
mark
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
@FullStrike said:
Anyone even remotely into Baseball views Jackie Robinson in a special way. He is one of the icons in the Hobby of Baseball Fandom. But how many Baseball Nuts want a Robinson Gold Coin? Put a nice Jackie Robinson Card out there , people get excited. Put a JR Commemorative Gold Coin out, it's just a different Ball Game.
@FullStrike said:
Anyone even remotely into Baseball views Jackie Robinson in a special way. He is one of the icons in the Hobby of Baseball Fandom. But how many Baseball Nuts want a Robinson Gold Coin? Put a nice Jackie Robinson Card out there , people get excited. Put a JR Commemorative Gold Coin out, it's just a different Ball Game.
More exciting certainly than a Capitol Visitor center coin. Those were tickling $2000 before crashing to $100 over melt.
@baseball said:
I think all markets are in trouble (real estate, stocks, bonds, coins, cards, etc.). I'm not trying to be Debbie Downer here, I just analytically believe that to be the case. Time will tell for all of us.
I think there are structural things in the world and national economy that need to be changed. I'm not sure how it's going to work out but something needs to change.
@baseball said:
I think all markets are in trouble (real estate, stocks, bonds, coins, cards, etc.). I'm not trying to be Debbie Downer here, I just analytically believe that to be the case. Time will tell for all of us.
Sure, agreed, but what many of those markets have that numismatics historically has lacked is easy price discovery. Easy price discovery (in the sense that I mean it) requires commoditization, or at least fungibility, and it requires someone willing to stand between the buyers and the sellers of that commoditized or fungible asset, and help set prices. When all that is in place, you get liquidity.
From that point of view, it is no surprise at all that CAC-approved coins are currently so liquid, when little else is. That's the lesson I take from the current market. All it really means is that I and others should be aware they're taking on liquidity risk when I/they choose to buy a non-CAC coin.
One of the memes about my local real estate market (SF bay area) is that the marginal buyer of the last 8 or so years has been all-cash and is relatively price insensitive (to judge by the vigor with which they overbid). I've also been told that many of these buyers won't be selling if prices drop 20-30%. That of course remains to be seen, but it 'bifurcates' that group of buyers from those using loans to purchase homes, like the typical American homebuyer, the ones who categorically buckled in 2009-2010 when the contraction in credit hit pricing.
I think one has to make a distinction between assets bought with leverage and those bought with unencumbered cash. I have a hard time imagining more than a tiny percentage of the coin market is bought on long-term credit, any more than a tiny percentage of the equities bought in retirement accounts are bought on credit. That's not to say they wouldn't be eyed in the event of a 'personal liquidity crunch', but nevertheless, I suspect numismatic assets with a true long-term market maker might be more resistant to variation in the credit cycle than one might think. For folks that don't have to sell, knowing they could sell and having some idea at what price they could do so could be enough to help prevent a run for the exits if external factors were to change.
Everybody knows it's in the tank. Am surprised it has not outright crashed. People have run out of money. MS 65 Generic dollars dropped to $125 recently. Huge market cap loss! I have bought some cameo silver KH recently for 25c on dollar and one low pop Canada NGC Dime I got for $4 normally a $45 coin off the Bay.
A slabbed lot of silver Roos Dimes I bought for 20c on dollar several mo ago have all sold individually for a total of 4-5 times I paid for lot but several mo all of them sell at retail. Great pickoff / super profit margin. At a recent show I bought 3 mod Commems (2 silver dollars) for around 40 pct MV now all priced at retail.
@Cougar1978 said:
Everybody knows it's in the tank. Am surprised it has not outright crashed. People have run out of money. MS 65 Generic dollars dropped to $125 recently. Huge market cap loss! I have bought some cameo silver KH recently for 25c on dollar and one low pop Canada NGC Dime I got for $4 normally a $45 coin off the Bay.
A slabbed lot of silver Roos Dimes I bought for 20c on dollar several mo ago have all sold individually for a total of 4-5 times I paid for lot but several mo all of them sell at retail. Great pickoff / super profit margin. At a recent show I bought 3 mod Commems (2 silver dollars) for around 40 pct MV now all priced at retail.
I look 4 deals can buy low sell high!
Sounds like the market segment you specialize in certainly is. Thats sounds like opportunity for you
mark
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Confirmation Bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one's preexisting beliefs or hypotheses.
@Boosibri said:
Confirmation Bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one's preexisting beliefs or hypotheses.
We had a conversation at the Sunday coin show who the best sport star was of the 1900s. Babe Ruth, Jackie Robinson? I mentioned him; great movie he played starring himself. "Never fight back" was his motto about the abuse he got. Died way too early in a neighboring town, diabetic. Althea Gibson, conquered the tennis world in the mid 1900s, never hit it big money-wise. Pioneer. Working class and middle income folks have been devastated economically, great coins are not a top priority.
@jwitten said:
The key date (national park) can be bought today for under $600 in MS70 on ebay. Why would the runner up cost more?
Collectability, as you bring baseball people into the fray.
I believe it was the first lady coins that tanked the category with mintages in the 2000-3000 range. Too many "rare" coins if you will. Certainly though the broader market decline cannot be overstated.
.
.
It cannot be overstated that the phrase "cannot be overstated" is often overstated.
.
.
"To Be Esteemed Be Useful" - 1792 Birch Cent --- "I personally think we developed language because of our deep need to complain." - Lily Tomlin
A slabbed lot of silver Roos Dimes I bought for 20c on dollar several mo ago have all sold individually for a total of 4-5 times I paid for lot but several mo all of them sell at retail. Great pickoff / super profit margin. At a recent show I bought 3 mod Commems (2 silver dollars) for around 40 pct MV now all priced at retail.
I look 4 deals can buy low sell high!
Someone picked-off those coins for peanuts from collectors. Sounds like one of the reasons we are where we are today. Buy at 40% MV and sell at 100% retail. That's not a reasonable model to entice collectors to stay for the long term.
Comments
One could paint the same broad brush for classic gem commems in 1989. Recall a MS65 Columbian Expo worth in the $4,800-$5800 range....$375-$500 today. How about a gem MS65 $10 Indian back in 2006 at $7500.....today $2,300 (63's got up to $2500+ at that time....$775 today). Or a 1878 MS64 $3 gold Indian at $13,500 back in April 2006.....today $3500. There's no shortage of them.
I think many of the $5 golds Have some nice designs and most can be bought raw or skan 69 around melt
Not sure if they will ever be popular enough to sell for a premium so it would be a bullion play for me
==Looking for pre WW2 Commems in PCGS Rattler holders, 1851-O Three Cent Silvers in all grades
Successful, problem free and pleasant transactions with: illini420, coinguy1, weather11am,wayneherndon,wondercoin,Topdollarpaid,Julian, bishdigg,seateddime, peicesofme,ajia,CoinRaritiesOnline,savoyspecial,Boom, TorinoCobra71, ModernCoinMart, WTCG, slinc, Patches, Gerard, pocketpiececommems, BigJohnD, RickMilauskas, mirabella, Smittys, LeeG, TomB, DeusExMachina, tydye
Coin that still leaves me scratching my head is the 1995 W SAE. Mintage of 30,000 and they still command over $3000 in PR69
With respect to the 1997-W Jackie Robinson coin only. I am wondering how much of the price drop was due to the venue. Three bids seems to be an indication of low traffic.
As to the 1995 W SAE there are many people pushing out complete set of both proof and uncirculated eagles sans the 1995-W and most collectors want the complete set. Those that can afford it buy at the going price.
I don't mean to bring up HRH, but Charlie Sheen just sold a couple of Babe Ruth items for over 4 mil. I mean, the market is never in trouble. Ever. The market is always alive and well. Our hobby just happens to be under pressure. I don't think the bullion dealers would disagree, either.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
Couldn't agree more. However, I'll add a codicil that one should from today on, be VERY discriminating on ...EVERY.... purchase.
Cuz I don't see the future "cuttin no slack" for mediocrity in ANY area.....
ever again.
Anyone even remotely into Baseball views Jackie Robinson in a special way. He is one of the icons in the Hobby of Baseball Fandom. But how many Baseball Nuts want a Robinson Gold Coin? Put a nice Jackie Robinson Card out there , people get excited. Put a JR Commemorative Gold Coin out, it's just a different Ball Game.
Regarding "how many Baseball Nuts want a Robinson Gold Coin?" a better question would be how many baseball collectors want a Robinson gold coin in their PSA Registry Set?
Here's a dollar coin from a PSA Registry Set. Just swap out the PCGS inserts for PSA inserts and see what happens.
100% agree. Be super super super choosy at every level and you be be ok.
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
More exciting certainly than a Capitol Visitor center coin. Those were tickling $2000 before crashing to $100 over melt.
I think there are structural things in the world and national economy that need to be changed. I'm not sure how it's going to work out but something needs to change.
Sure, agreed, but what many of those markets have that numismatics historically has lacked is easy price discovery. Easy price discovery (in the sense that I mean it) requires commoditization, or at least fungibility, and it requires someone willing to stand between the buyers and the sellers of that commoditized or fungible asset, and help set prices. When all that is in place, you get liquidity.
From that point of view, it is no surprise at all that CAC-approved coins are currently so liquid, when little else is. That's the lesson I take from the current market. All it really means is that I and others should be aware they're taking on liquidity risk when I/they choose to buy a non-CAC coin.
One of the memes about my local real estate market (SF bay area) is that the marginal buyer of the last 8 or so years has been all-cash and is relatively price insensitive (to judge by the vigor with which they overbid). I've also been told that many of these buyers won't be selling if prices drop 20-30%. That of course remains to be seen, but it 'bifurcates' that group of buyers from those using loans to purchase homes, like the typical American homebuyer, the ones who categorically buckled in 2009-2010 when the contraction in credit hit pricing.
I think one has to make a distinction between assets bought with leverage and those bought with unencumbered cash. I have a hard time imagining more than a tiny percentage of the coin market is bought on long-term credit, any more than a tiny percentage of the equities bought in retirement accounts are bought on credit. That's not to say they wouldn't be eyed in the event of a 'personal liquidity crunch', but nevertheless, I suspect numismatic assets with a true long-term market maker might be more resistant to variation in the credit cycle than one might think. For folks that don't have to sell, knowing they could sell and having some idea at what price they could do so could be enough to help prevent a run for the exits if external factors were to change.
Everybody knows it's in the tank. Am surprised it has not outright crashed. People have run out of money. MS 65 Generic dollars dropped to $125 recently. Huge market cap loss! I have bought some cameo silver KH recently for 25c on dollar and one low pop Canada NGC Dime I got for $4 normally a $45 coin off the Bay.
A slabbed lot of silver Roos Dimes I bought for 20c on dollar several mo ago have all sold individually for a total of 4-5 times I paid for lot but several mo all of them sell at retail. Great pickoff / super profit margin. At a recent show I bought 3 mod Commems (2 silver dollars) for around 40 pct MV now all priced at retail.
I look 4 deals can buy low sell high!
Sounds like the market segment you specialize in certainly is. Thats sounds like opportunity for you
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Confirmation Bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one's preexisting beliefs or hypotheses.
Latin American Collection
AKA CNN syndrome.
AKA human nature.
We had a conversation at the Sunday coin show who the best sport star was of the 1900s. Babe Ruth, Jackie Robinson? I mentioned him; great movie he played starring himself. "Never fight back" was his motto about the abuse he got. Died way too early in a neighboring town, diabetic. Althea Gibson, conquered the tennis world in the mid 1900s, never hit it big money-wise. Pioneer. Working class and middle income folks have been devastated economically, great coins are not a top priority.
.
.
It cannot be overstated that the phrase "cannot be overstated" is often overstated.
.
.
"To Be Esteemed Be Useful" - 1792 Birch Cent --- "I personally think we developed language because of our deep need to complain." - Lily Tomlin
Someone picked-off those coins for peanuts from collectors. Sounds like one of the reasons we are where we are today. Buy at 40% MV and sell at 100% retail. That's not a reasonable model to entice collectors to stay for the long term.